Will circulated modern coins ever be worth anything?

[pendragon1998]

Now keep in mind I'm not talking about errors or varieties, but rather your standard, business-strike generic cents, nickels, dimes, and quarters. The stuff you spend every day. With all of the collectors and the mass quantities out there, will (for example) an average circulated quarter from 1985 ever be worth anything near what an equally-graded quarter from 1885 is worth today? My guess is that so many modern coins exist, so many will be saved, and so many will survive in super-high grade, that they'll never have much value. I wonder if in a hundred years, a circulated modern will be worth more than one of the gazillions of MS versions that most modern collectors will save?

 

Thoughts, opinions?

[Zoins]

I wonder if in a hundred years, a circulated modern will be worth more than one of the gazillions of MS versions that most modern collectors will save?

Hmm, not sure. I probably won't be around in 100 years. What did people collect 100 years ago? I can envision situations where people don't really care about collectibles for the most part.

[Prethen]

Very, very doubtful. Maybe in several thousands years. Look at the mintages and the survival rates are extremely high. Unless some very mass meltings occur, count on today's current coinage to be worth no more than face. Certain uncirculated issues might be a different story, but overall, with hundreds of millions or in some cases, billions, of coins, there's just too much supply.

[coxe]

Nope. I highly doubt it, except per their base metals. Just look at the more common ancients and how they languish. Unless there are massive melts, multi-million mintage moderns have no potential as circulated dates. Their value will be as condition rarities (like FS Jeffs) and errors.

[BillJones]

Yes, I agree. Very doubtful within even our grandchildren's lifetimes.

 

The mintage on this stuff is really high, and with more collectors than ever, pieces are being saved. Look at the 19th century. With mintages almost always below 10 million coins, often a lot less, the circulated, common date stuff is not that expensive, although ot is harder to find than you might think. The trouble is the number of collectors who save Seated material by date and mint is pretty low.

 

But there are a lot of albums full of modern coins out there that will always leave a large surviving population.

[Houston Investor]

none - too common

[JRocco]

The world was a different place 100 years ago.

My answer----not a chance...

[JJSingleton]

Yes, in the year 2987 when it is discovered that our old copper-nickel clad coinage is an essential ingredient used to make copper-nickel crystals, which fuels the warp core in all interplanetary warp drive systems.

 

 

Seriously, this is a question none of us can answer. Our views today toward modern coinage dictate our answers. However, rarities can be created in the future by events we can not imagine today. So their is no correct answer to you question as nobody knows the future.

[pendragon1998]

Ain't no copper-nickel in a dilithium warp reactor.

[JJSingleton]

Ain't no copper-nickel in a dilithium warp reactor.

Dilithium warp is sooooo yesterday.

[cladking]

This post was repositioned from 9:34 Eastern

 

You ask about a 1985 quarter in average circulated but is that average circulated when they were all in circulation for the first time in 1988, average circulated today, or average circulated when the value of their metal content starts driving them into the melting pot?

 

If you mean average circulated today then probably not. These may have only another twenty years of circulation and there will still be nearly fifty million coins in better shape when they are discontinued. If you mean average circulated in the distant future then almost certainly not. By then these will have so little value that many will be saved as souvenirs and it will take hundreds of years to winnow down the populations sufficiently.

 

But a couple of your assumptions are erroneous. There aren't huge numbers of 1985 quarters in uncirculated condition. More importantly is that with modern cu/ ni clad uncirculated condition is not necessarily superior to even a coin in F condition. These are sometimes made horribly and detail is lacking. It's likely that future collectors would greatly prefer a nice evenly worn and well struck coin in VF to an MS-60. While this doesn't apply much to the '85, it certainly does to many dates.

 

If bust half dollars were circulating today and you wanted to make a collection would you seek out typical average circulated coins? Of course not. You'd seek out the finest examples you could find. It's the same with circulating coins today.

 

Another thing is that you exclude varieties out of hand. I don't understand why you'd do this since there are some modern clad quarter varieties that probably don't exist in unc at all. Most of them don't appear in mint sets and all of them can be found in circulation. One of my favorites is the '85-P sm bust quarter. This coin is characterized by having a much greater gap between the E in LIBERTY and the eagle's head and appears on fewer than .5% of 'this date. It actually exists in unc but there are probably fewer than a couple hundred in existence. It's not reported so you can find them pretty regularly if you look. Of course most of them you find will be in "average circulated" condition. For the '85-P this is a pretty crummy F+. This date has lower rims than later dates so the devices get exposed to more damage and lots of these will have marks on them. You can still find nice attractive VF's with diligence.

[MunkyMan95]

I think YES. Change happens, whether it be that our coinage is made of plastic, or done away with altogether. Did people in 1906 think that their coins would be worth something? Probably not. They just spent them.

[MrSpud-migration]

Ummm.... if there is another baby boom and the population grows 1000 fold and the Chinese find it fashionable to collect US coins by date and mm and also if just 1% of the aliens start to collect Earthside coins, then the value will soar.....

 

Actually, try finding a 1969P Roosevelt in circulation and you'll get an idea of just how tough it will be to find enough of every date and mm of modern coins if the amount of coin collectors grows just about 100 fold or so during the next 100 years.

[just-john]

I think it has more to do with the nations ecomomy in the future if people have enough buying power to collect coins and enough people get into the hobby.Then you could see

common change increase.The common modern coin i like for the future is the zinc coated penny look at some just a few years old they look like *spoon* wear badly stain easy.Think what one will look like in just 25 yrs.Now if we could get the people in China to start collecting US coins we would be OK

[Zoins]

Now if we could get the people in China to start collecting US coins we would be OK

We'd have to convince them to stop making US coins first

 

That being said, new Chinese millionaires are spending a lot of money, on Chinese paintings and the like. The Japanese were very interested in the American culture. It will be interesting to see if the Chinese are as interested in American culture or more interested in their own.

[TomB]

It's interesting that you should single out the 1969 Roosevelt dime, MrSpud, since I had been thinking about the difficulty in finding a nice 1969 Washington quarter in change.

[WinstonWare]

Even if circulated moderns did become collectors’ items at some point in time, the opportunity cost of holding these slowly appreciating coins would be prohibitive.

[braddick]

I have this one socked away for my kid's future college fund:

 

 

What? No good?

[MrSpud-migration]

It's interesting that you should single out the 1969 Roosevelt dime, MrSpud, since I had been thinking about the difficulty in finding a nice 1969 Washington quarter in change.

 

For the fun of it, MrsSpud went to the bank multiple times about 2 yrs ago and got a whole bunch of Dime rolls in order to see how many 65 to date Whitman folders she could fill up. She kept going back until she finally found 1 circulated 69P. We now have full tubes of every date and mm except the 69P and one of the 1970's (I think it was either 70D or 71D). Anyways, there will be some hard to find keys in todays moderns in the future.

[CarolinaCollector]

Good point, Mr. Spud, about the 1969-P dime. They made 100MM, but where are they? The 69-Ds are not easy to find either.

 

My daughter, Pam, started a circulated Roosevelt Dime set from 1965 to present in early 2004. We bought several rolls of dimes from the bank and found every date except for the 69-P. I finally bought her an UNC. example from a dealer in 2005 after eight+ months of searching. About four months later I finally found a VF example in change while visiting Washington, D.C. This is the only 69-P I have found. During the same time, I have found only four 69-D dimes.

 

My daughter's set has a couple of choice XF coins, but we were able to find AU or BU examples of most dates (including those in the late 60s and early 70s) by searching our rolls and change. These "nicer" circulated examples, though, are not common for dates in the 60s and early 70s.

 

I also agree with TomB that 1969 Quarters from both mints are also hard to find in change.

 

I believe cladking is right about these "moderns". However, it is my opinion that he may be overestimating the survivors in AU for many dates. If kids started to collecct clad change in a big way (as we did in the early 60's with silver coinage), the "nicer" BU/AU/Choice XF dimes and quarters would quickly disappear.

[cpm9ball]

Ain't no copper-nickel in a dilithium warp reactor.

 

But what about the Stargate?

 

Chris

[Coin]

Where do all the circulated coins go once theyare banged up or worn down anyway ?

Do the banks pull them and turn them in to the reserve system for new replacements? (How about finding 1988 worn out dollar bills or the old small portrait Abe $5 bills?)

Do we lose 1 billion cents a year?

I realize that dealers keep some and a few people keep some , but they make 100 million of these things in each denomination each year , so where are the 1977 nickels, quarters and dimes? or when was the last time you got a 1973 quarter in pocket change? I get tons of the 1966,67 quarters all banged up mostly in rough shape....but these were made at all the mints those years , but why then is it hard to find a 1970 nickel in your store change? Where did it go?

 

These coins can't be all absorbed into little mason jars under people's sinks everywhere , could they? I mean the old ratty banged up well used ones.

 

Are the ash trays in the junk-yard cars full of them in vast quantities to be crushed and inadvertintly melted ? ( I have found only a handfull in older junk cars while in an old country salvage yard that weren't environmentally damaged...they aren't there).

[cpm9ball]

Where do all the circulated coins go once theyare banged up or worn down anyway ?

Do the banks pull them and turn them in to the reserve system for new replacements? (How about finding 1988 worn out dollar bills or the old small portrait Abe $5 bills?)

Do we lose 1 billion cents a year?

I realize that dealers keep some and a few people keep some , but they make 100 million of these things in each denomination each year , so where are the 1977 nickels, quarters and dimes? or when was the last time you got a 1973 quarter in pocket change? I get tons of the 1966,67 quarters all banged up mostly in rough shape....but these were made at all the mints those years , but why then is it hard to find a 1970 nickel in your store change? Where did it go?

 

These coins can't be all absorbed into little mason jars under people's sinks everywhere , could they? I mean the old ratty banged up well used ones.

 

Are the ash trays in the junk-yard cars full of them in vast quantities to be crushed and inadvertintly melted ? ( I have found only a handfull in older junk cars while in an old country salvage yard that weren't environmentally damaged...they aren't there).

 

You could also check around the vacuum cleaners at convenience stores and self-service or automatic car washes. I usually find alot of change around them. People just throw it on the ground. Wishing wells also get alot of change.

 

Chris

[coxe]

Yes, look in any standing water feature in any American metropolitan area. There are too many superstitous *spoon* in this country taxing themselves unnecessarily.

[cladking]

Where do all the circulated coins go once theyare banged up or worn down anyway ?

Do the banks pull them and turn them in to the reserve system for new replacements? (How about finding 1988 worn out dollar bills or the old small portrait Abe $5 bills?)

Do we lose 1 billion cents a year?

I realize that dealers keep some and a few people keep some , but they make 100 million of these things in each denomination each year , so where are the 1977 nickels, quarters and dimes? or when was the last time you got a 1973 quarter in pocket change? I get tons of the 1966,67 quarters all banged up mostly in rough shape....but these were made at all the mints those years , but why then is it hard to find a 1970 nickel in your store change? Where did it go?

 

These coins can't be all absorbed into little mason jars under people's sinks everywhere , could they? I mean the old ratty banged up well used ones.

 

Are the ash trays in the junk-yard cars full of them in vast quantities to be crushed and inadvertintly melted ? ( I have found only a handfull in older junk cars while in an old country salvage yard that weren't environmentally damaged...they aren't there).

 

 

The FED removes almost nothing from circulation. So long as a coin goes through the counters it will be reissued. There has been talk of removing some of the worst coins but it has yet to occur.

 

The coins simply get lost. They get burned up in fires and floated off in floods. They get buried in the ground and dumped in landfills. Very few coins are found in old accumulations in most homes. The value of these coins add up pretty quick and the owners will redeem at least the larger denominations. Look at these coins and you'll see that they have generally been out of circulation for only a couple years or less.

 

About half of the older clad is gone now but the rest is still in circulation. Up until about four years ago coins were represented in change in almost perfect proportion to their mintages but this has been changing. Where the condition of most of a date would roughly form a narrow bell curve around a certain grade now the high end of this curve is getting attenuated. There are fewer of the high grade coins and there are fewer of the better date coins.

 

Pennies are another matter because these get thrown out and can spend many years sitting in buckets. They tend to change hands only a few times before being destroyed or removed.

[Peace_Fan]

The other factor to consider here is the move towards credit cards/ebanking/ebusiness. I don't know about all of you, but over the last few years the amount of change running through my hands has decreased significantly...I spend most of my money by using plastic. This trend will result in the money that is minted remaining in uncirc condition, and therefore huge numbers.

[DC Dawg]

The other factor to consider here is the move towards credit cards/ebanking/ebusiness. I don't know about all of you, but over the last few years the amount of change running through my hands has decreased significantly...I spend most of my money by using plastic. This trend will result in the money that is minted remaining in uncirc condition, and therefore huge numbers.

As an information security professional, I know how unsafe the system is, so I use cash.

 

Over the last three months, as I have been checking my pocket change, I have been keeping a record of mint marks and decades of the coins I find. Interestingly, I see very few S mint cents from the late 60s and early 70s. In fact, my list shows just one find in three months. Obviously, since I am in the DC area, P or plain mint coins are more prevalent, but we get a lot of D mint coins from travelers. But very few S's!

 

For 2006, I found under a dollar's worth of S mint Memorial Cents from change--one and about one-quarter plastic tube full. There were over 600 million minted in 1969! So where are they today?

 

Scott

[zrlevin]

There were over 600 million minted in 1969! So where are they today?

 

Scott

 

Tell me about it. I'm doing a set of lincolns from circulation, and after two bank boxes of cents I have yet to find a 1969S. It's one of 4 memorial cents I still need.

[cladking]

The other factor to consider here is the move towards credit cards/ebanking/ebusiness. I don't know about all of you, but over the last few years the amount of change running through my hands has decreased significantly...I spend most of my money by using plastic. This trend will result in the money that is minted remaining in uncirc condition, and therefore huge numbers.

 

There is a lot of practical truth here but the determination of coin velocity is primarily the numbers kept at han by each user. If stores, banks and consumers all keep vast stockpiles then velocity will be low regardless of the percentage of transactions involving coin. Lower percentage of coin transactions will show up first in lower mintages due to decreased coin demand.

 

In real life velocity will tend to slow since stores will have to still maintain ample supply and predicting the daily percentage of transactions may prove impossible. A counteracting consideration is that some people might switch to 100% electronic purchases and no longer keep coins at home or in pockets.

 

Wear on a unc coin is determined largely by how it is used. It is the average of each users personal habits. If people have coins in their pockets and slide them across counters they wear rapidly with a distinctive sort of wear. If they carry them in purses and hand them to cashiers they get less and a different type of wear. Counters impart wear and opening and closing cash registers cause wear.

 

Now days it takes about six transactions to knock a quarter out of unc condition and many dozens more to knock it out of AU. They tend to get spent about every 15 days or so. The mint and FED use FIFO accounting so the coins never get "lost in the system". The first coin into the FED is the first one back out. New coins usually take about six years before there are no remaining unc examples. This isn't so much because of velocity or wear as it is the tendency of a small percentage of coins forever getting held up in storage at the FED or in piggy banks. FED storage usually rotates every three years. It's not impossible to find older uncs and with the disruptions caused by the differences in the way states coins are issued it's not extremely unusual anymore. But you won't find pre-2000 dimes or pre-'96 quarters as uncs in commerce anymore. Indeed in the case of quarters it is getting decidely difficult to even find any of the eagle reverse coins in an attractive AU any more.

[Peace_Fan]

The other factor to consider here is the move towards credit cards/ebanking/ebusiness. I don't know about all of you, but over the last few years the amount of change running through my hands has decreased significantly...I spend most of my money by using plastic. This trend will result in the money that is minted remaining in uncirc condition, and therefore huge numbers.

 

There is a lot of practical truth here but the determination of coin velocity is primarily the numbers kept at han by each user. If stores, banks and consumers all keep vast stockpiles then velocity will be low regardless of the percentage of transactions involving coin. Lower percentage of coin transactions will show up first in lower mintages due to decreased coin demand.

 

In real life velocity will tend to slow since stores will have to still maintain ample supply and predicting the daily percentage of transactions may prove impossible. A counteracting consideration is that some people might switch to 100% electronic purchases and no longer keep coins at home or in pockets.

 

Wear on a unc coin is determined largely by how it is used. It is the average of each users personal habits. If people have coins in their pockets and slide them across counters they wear rapidly with a distinctive sort of wear. If they carry them in purses and hand them to cashiers they get less and a different type of wear. Counters impart wear and opening and closing cash registers cause wear.

 

Now days it takes about six transactions to knock a quarter out of unc condition and many dozens more to knock it out of AU. They tend to get spent about every 15 days or so. The mint and FED use FIFO accounting so the coins never get "lost in the system". The first coin into the FED is the first one back out. New coins usually take about six years before there are no remaining unc examples. This isn't so much because of velocity or wear as it is the tendency of a small percentage of coins forever getting held up in storage at the FED or in piggy banks. FED storage usually rotates every three years. It's not impossible to find older uncs and with the disruptions caused by the differences in the way states coins are issued it's not extremely unusual anymore. But you won't find pre-2000 dimes or pre-'96 quarters as uncs in commerce anymore. Indeed in the case of quarters it is getting decidely difficult to even find any of the eagle reverse coins in an attractive AU any more.

 

I agree with everything you said; my only point is that with the trend to ebiz the 15 days or so number that you quote will lengthen, and stores will begin to maintain less coin inventory. Time will tell...