Market Top (Stack's Auction Bombs)?

[gmarguli]

The "pre-FUN" auction held by Stacks appears to have bombed big time. Looks like only 52% of the coins ended up selling. That's pitiful. Many of the sold coins were collector friendly price level coins - under $2,000.

 

Many of the Heritage reserves that have posted seem to be rather optimistic. Lots of "next bid meets reserve". Quite a few unreserved coins looking somewhat cheap.

 

Is the market top finally here or is this a market breather?

 

Coin money moving back to the stock market which is setting records?

 

Cheap and easy real estate money drying up?

[WinstonWare]

There are definitely other places to put ones' money that weren’t as lucrative in the past couple of years. I don’t know though, is that enough? You guys with more experience will have to tell me.

[TomB]

I think a few other things come into play for this Stack's/ANR sale and they include what appears to be the ANR image system, limited viewing that took place in mid-December at Stack's in NYC as well as New Year's Eve and New Year's Day in FL and the auction date, which is one or more days before many folks even arrive in FL for FUN. In my opinion, all of these reasons can dampen an auction. Please note that I am not stating that we cannot be at the top, nor am I stating that the reserves might not have been absurd in some cases. I am simply giving valid reasons for why I would not choose this auction to consign my coins.

[MikeKing]

You bring up a good point Tom. I have one coin that I am putting up for auction sometime in February for similar reasons.

 

edited to add: and with no reserve mind you.

[JJSingleton]

I think a few other things come into play for this Stack's/ANR sale and they include what appears to be the ANR image system, limited viewing that took place in mid-December at Stack's in NYC as well as New Year's Eve and New Year's Day in FL and the auction date, which is one or more days before many folks even arrive in FL for FUN. In my opinion, all of these reasons can dampen an auction. Please note that I am not stating that we cannot be at the top, nor am I stating that the reserves might not have been absurd in some cases. I am simply giving valid reasons for why I would not choose this auction to consign my coins.

Tom, all your points are certainly valid. But lets not forget that exactly 52 weeks ago to the day ANR held their auction on Tuesday before the Fun Show. The results far exceeded anyone's expectations. The ANR auction set the tone for the rest of the week where anything that sold for moon money was considered cheap. I can't wait to get to Orlando tomorrow to get a true feel of the impact of this ANR/Stacks disappointment. This should be a very interesting show.

[TomB]

Good point, Fats.

[truthteller]

Do you realize how much money dealers will have to come up with to retrieve their coins out of the auctions if they took cash advances on them? That notion in itself makes me feel there will be a SUBSTANTIAL selloff at FUN. Major auctions for some dealers are merely a source of temporary cheap low interest capital to funnel into their businesses.

 

 

 

 

TRUTH

[michael]

any decent rare and/or scarce historial coinage in the 20k range or less that had decent to great eye appeal and nice surfaces and was what i considered a really good value opportunity coin sold really well++++ to strong

 

here are all the coin lots that i marked off three weeks ago as really good coins and ALL were all sold

 

the rest of the........ did not sell for various reasons

 

i must admit that some of the lots not all but some i marked off had not only terrible inaccurate descriptions but had such *spoon* poor photos it would have been better to sell them with no photos at all.............shame on the photography..................

 

2

33

289

362

429

502

627

634 looks xf40 and still sold big

806 unbe;lieveable coin a monster++++ and really poor discrace of a photo

818

819 damaged and still sold big!!

889 an all there coin but dipped and still went strong

1009 strong+++

1104

1131

1502 monster prooflike not even close in the photo terrible

 

to name a new

[MikeKing]

any decent rare and/or scarce historial coinage in the 20k range or less that had decent to great eye appeal and nice surfaces and was what i considered a really good value opportunity coin sold really well++++ to strong

 

here are all the coin lots that i marked off three weeks ago as really good coins and ALL were all sold

 

the rest of the........ did not sell for various reasons

 

i must admit that some of the lots not all but some i marked off had not only terrible inaccurate descriptions but had such *spoon* poor photos it would have been better to sell them with no photos at all.............shame on the photography..................

 

2

33

289

362

429

502

627

634 looks xf40 and still sold big

806 unbe;lieveable coin a monster++++ and really poor discrace of a photo

818

819 damaged and still sold big!!

889 an all there coin but dipped and still went strong

1009 strong+++

1104

1131

1502 monster prooflike not even close in the photo terrible

 

to name a new

 

 

what am I missing on #819??? I don't see any damage.

[TomB]

Well, all the coins that I inspected in-hand are listed on Michael's list. Additionally, the one coin that I won at auction is also on that list. I guess it gets a Michael approval.

[MBA101]

In looking at the Heritage site featured items, it appears that 50% of these items have reserves on them that have not been met. Looks as if people are rather presumtuous as far as assuming someone out there will pay full retail for their $100,000+ coin no questions asked. Heritage has well over 300 big ticket items up for sale worth 25K plus each. And there are 4 million dollar plus coins (so far), 2 of which have not had reserves met. Are there really that many people who can afford such things all at one time? Maybe there is just too much on the market at once. This stuff all closes over the next couple of days, so we shall see...

[Zoins]

I wonder why there's so much on the market now? Are sellers in a rush to try and get high prices before....?

[TomB]

I believe part of this answer is that the larger auction houses have been putting on bigger and bigger auctions for the last few years and have become extremely aggressive in finding material to auction. Additionally, since they are getting more aggressive in offering lots, I believe at least some of the lots auctioned would not have been included in previous auctions.

[kryptonitecomics]

As a person who has 25 coins in the Current Heritage auction I can tell you my coins are half way to the amount I thought they would end at......Some have already made me money and quite a few are well well under what the market would deem their value to be. I am optomistic that with the 5-days left in the on line auction...and floor bidding left to go on my signature items.....I will at least get to what I thought they would bring......

 

I'll make money on some and lose money on some.....but I will report back when everything is done on how one of the little guys in the auction faired. I can say that in looking at the Frankie in both the Signature and on line auction.......there was only 1 or 2 others that were nicer then mine and yet Heritage chose to place mine in the on line sale instead of the signature.....really makes no sense to me. I had other coins that were too nice for the on line auction.....but Todd Imhoff did try to work with me a lot so maybe they knew something I didn't about how to market them better?

[Leothelion]

Perhaps the potential ' first strike" lawsuits and recent bammings may have something to do with a possible loss of faith in the hobby as a whole. Word does travel fast but it's just a stretch of some thoughts I'm having.

 

Nah......almost sounds like a bunch of nonsense..........

 

Leo

[truthteller]

Unless you explicitly say what you want in the contract, you lose control over your coins. In general, a high profile FUN signature sale must have lot values of $750 and over per item for several items of minimum value of $5000 total in the sale. If not, the auction house often "bundles" together your lower valued lots into one. For example, in the ANA Summer sale, a coin with a $250 value will not be in one lot by itself. The auction house will take 3 or 4 lower value coins and combine them into one lot of higher value. If you are a good consigner with several coins in the $10K range, the auction house will usually accomodate you. However, if you're just a coin Joe consigner, they either will put your coin in the online sale or not accept it for a high profile auction. Often, the cataloguer will have control over non contract coins and will use his/her discretion at lot placement.

 

 

 

TRUTH

[Oldtrader3]

Heritage generally will not list coins individually that catalog under $500. in live auctions. Also, I believe, coins in "Internet Only" auctions need to catalog for at least $100 to be individually listed. Pricing has been a little soft recently. I sold some coins in November through Heritage. Some did ok, some not as well as I expected (i.e. MS64/65, seated lib. and Barber dimes).

 

ANR did well auctioning some gold coins of mine earlier in the year, but prices have softened since then. ANR will generally not individually catalog coins worth less than $1000. each.

[WinstonWare]

Good luck with those coins Shane

[kryptonitecomics]

Well they grouped quite a few coins that were worth well more than $100 bucks a piece but the problem is they are all toned so they went with untoned values which isn't really fair to the consigners.....plus their were probably 5 coins I consigned with values that ranged from $500 to a $1000 that all ended up in the on line auction so I don't know what their critera was for desciding but.....since this was my first time consigning....I didn't know that I could tell them which auctions I wanted the coins in?

 

Of the two coins that made it to the signature sale (they just ended the floor bidding)...I made $50 bucks off my original purchase price on one and I lost $400 on another......a coin that when I bought it I was told it would sell at auction right then for at least $500 more than I paid so......I guess we know there is a $900 dollar descrepencie from what the coin firm told me the value of the coin was vs what it was actually worth. Still I needed to sell right away so it wasn't like I had an option to hold onto the coin to potential get my money back out of it down the road. Bottom line....I paid for it so if I overpaid.......I can't go complaining to the seller.....I just have to take the hit...lesson learned.

[michael]

pm to you mike king!!

 

and tomb you got one hell of a coin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

wow congrats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kranky]

Without knowing the reserves, is it possible to know the implications of so many coins not selling?

 

If the unreserved coins go cheap, that would tell me something.

[MBA101]

In the Heritage auction, still looks like many of the featured items that have reserves are not selling, and some featured items with no reserve are inexpensive going into the floor auction.

 

Also looks like there are online auction coins at decent levels heading into the reserve posting night (tomorrow) that could be interesting.

 

Could we actually be witnessing a market slowdown? I hope so. Would love not to need to spend top dollar on some of the coins that I would like...

 

Come Tuesday morning, may be time to post a whole bunch of dancing bananas!

[vtrockin]

Man...you guys are making me nervous. I bid on many $150-$300 Heritage FUN coins with kinda lowball bids with the assumption that not all of them would win and the "market" would choose the coins I got so I wouldn't have to decide. I'm not getting outbid...I now have TOO MANY winning bids...damn guys...bid some of them up...I don't have THAT much money!

[MikeKing]

uh-oh

[vtrockin]

uh-oh

 

Yeah...just wait until I have to tell my wife!

[kryptonitecomics]

Man...you guys are making me nervous. I bid on many $150-$300 Heritage FUN coins with kinda lowball bids with the assumption that not all of them would win and the "market" would choose the coins I got so I wouldn't have to decide. I'm not getting outbid...I now have TOO MANY winning bids...damn guys...bid some of them up...I don't have THAT much money!

 

I have done that to a small degree......about $3000 in bids but I am only still winning a couple hundred bucks worth and if I won them for the prices I bid......I would pay for them and then find the money to throw myself a party as I put some really low bids on coins myself

[cpm9ball]

uh-oh

 

Yeah...just wait until I have to tell my wife!

 

Which reminds me of the story.............

 

The boss was always hitting on his secretary. One afternoon when he, once again propositioned her, she said, "OK!" After closing the store, they went to a motel and had sex until late in the evening. On the drive home, the boss tried to think of what he would tell his wife. Then it dawned on him. He went to the local poolroom and wiped chalk on his hands and talcum powder on his pants. When he arrived home, his wife asked him where he had been all night. He told his wife that he and his secretary had gone to a motel and had sex, to which, his wife exclaimed, "Don't you lie to me! You've been at the poolroom all night!"

 

Be creative.....................tell her the truth!

 

Chris

[Denver Dave]

Which reminds me of the story.............

 

The boss was always hitting on his secretary. One afternoon when he, once again propositioned her, she said, "OK!" After closing the store, they went to a motel and had sex until late in the evening. On the drive home, the boss tried to think of what he would tell his wife. Then it dawned on him. He went to the local poolroom and wiped chalk on his hands and talcum powder on his pants. When he arrived home, his wife asked him where he had been all night. He told his wife that he and his secretary had gone to a motel and had sex, to which, his wife exclaimed, "Don't you lie to me! You've been at the poolroom all night!"

 

Be creative.....................tell her the truth!

 

Chris

 

Now thats a good one...