Silver Panda Market

[Pecus100-migration]

Does anyone have any idea of the size or make-up of the silver panda market in China?

[EZ_E]

Good question!

 

I'm looking forward to the answer.

[DC Dawg]

I am not sure what you are looking for, but the information on the minting of all Chineese Pandas can be found at China Gold Coins, Inc., the arm of the People's Bank of China to deal in gold and silver commemorative coins, including the Pandas. See if this provides the information you want.

 

Scott

[EZ_E]

Since it's first issue in 1982, Panda coins has a total issuance of 220 oz., annual sales volume reached

 

120,000 oz. In the 12 years between 1988 and 2000, panda coins enjoyed a sales volume of 1,060,000 oz.

 

In international market, and 170,000 oz. In domestic market.

 

 

 

It was also interesting to read that there are international and domestic versions of the Panda. The domestic version is distinquished with a "D" on the reverse.

[Pecus100-migration]

So, it seems the market for silver pandas has been mostly international, at least until 2000. I wonder whether anyone has any information about who in China constitutes the coin community and whether the status of the silver (or gold) panda among them is the same as that of silver eagle among Americans. Is there a Panda Coin Society, for example, in Shanghai or Hong Kong? Do they have a website or publication?

 

Now that the size of the "middle class" in China is supposedly growing rapidly, I wonder whether the desire to collect these coins is growing as well. Many folks assume that because of the immense population in China, these coins should become quite valuable as the Chinese acquire the wealth to indulge their appetite for the "extras" in life. If only they regard this coin the way we Americans regard the eagle!

[DC Dawg]

It was also interesting to read that there are international and domestic versions of the Panda. The domestic version is distinquished with a "D" on the reverse.

Additionally, the proof versions are distinguished with a "P" on the reverse. TPGs will not give Pandas a proof designation if the coins does not have the "P" on the reverse, even though they all look like proof coins.

 

The Chineese government does a great job in minting the Pandas. Not only are most of the designs wonderful (there are some from the 90s that look a bit cartoonish) but the strikes are very strong and clean. While coins like the Maple Leafs and Britannias can show some weakness in the strikes from worn dies, the production of the Pandas and their beauty justifies their premium over these other bullion coins.

 

I have a modest collection of Pandas, including a 2001-D. I have been debating whether to create an album of raw coins or get them graded and build the set that way. I know I started a few registry sets, but I am not a big fan of slabbing. We'll see...

 

Scott

[Pecus100-migration]

Many collectors believe that it is important to leave these coins in their original double packing--plastic air-tite in a plastic pouch--because the markings on the edge of the pouch tell you which of the three mints the coin was made at (Shanghai, Shenyang, Guoboa). Thus there may be a cost attached to slabbing, beyond any loss of viewing pleasure.

 

There seems to be a small number of Chinese dealers from Shanghai and Hong Kong who do the lion's share of legitimate business in these coins. These coins are very attractive and marketed quite vigorously. Still I've never seen anything from the Chinese side of the market, if it exists.

 

Has anyone ever communicated with a Chinese collector of pandas? It would be great to get an inside take on the panda coin world among the Chinese, no?

[Zoins]

the minting of all Chineese Pandas can be found at China Gold Coins, Inc., the arm of the People's Bank of China to deal in gold and silver commemorative coins, including the Pandas.

Does that site have actual mintages? I can only find press releases with planned mintages. I've seen some postings of non-panda modern Chinese bullion where actual mintages are below (and even one above) planned mintages.

[Zoins]

So, it seems the market for silver pandas has been mostly international, at least until 2000. I wonder whether anyone has any information about who in China constitutes the coin community and whether the status of the silver (or gold) panda among them is the same as that of silver eagle among Americans. Is there a Panda Coin Society, for example, in Shanghai or Hong Kong? Do they have a website or publication?

I don't know about Chinese coin collectors but non-coin collector Chinese Americans I know seem more interested in lunar animals than pandas. If you go to a Chinese restaurant in the US they always have lunar animal placemats as well as a dragon and a phoenix on the wall. I never see any pictures of pandas in restaurants aside from Panda Express. China makes at least two lunar animal coin series so my guess is that those would be more popular among Chinese collectors (as opposed to people who just want bullion). Pandas are also traditionally used by China as goodwill animals towards foreigners, e.g. give US zoos some pandas, so I assume the panda coins started off as being geared towards foreigners in target market as well as subject matter. Of course Chinese collectors may still collect them since they are a long running series. This is just speculation on my part. It would be good to hear from someone in the Chinese collector market.

[DC Dawg]

the minting of all Chineese Pandas can be found at China Gold Coins, Inc., the arm of the People's Bank of China to deal in gold and silver commemorative coins, including the Pandas.

Does that site have actual mintages? I can only find press releases with planned mintages. I've seen some postings of non-panda modern Chinese bullion where actual mintages are below (and even one above) planned mintages.

China usually sells out of its Panda coins in all metals. Since they do not sell these coins directly to the public, they mint their production limit and ship coins to dealers around the world. They are very good with helping their agents, especially those in Europe, market these coins.

 

It also helps that they are beautiful coins!

 

Scott

[Pecus100-migration]

Very interesting point. One way to get a grip on the popularity of panda coins in China might be to get some idea of how many of them have been bought for Chinese domestic consumption since 2000, when it became possible to own precious metals in China. Also, to compare these numbers to the numbers of Lunar series coins pruchased in China would help understand the dymanic mentioned above about creating pandas not for the Chinese, but for foreigners.

[EZ_E]

I'm going to Shenyang, China in less than a month. I doubt that I will do any coin related activities but I may check to see if there is a coin shop there.

 

Do US collectors seek both the domestic and export Pandas for a complete set or does it not matter?

[Pecus100-migration]

I'm trying to get collect all versions of all silver Pandas, domestic and foreign. It'll be interesting to hear what you turn up in China if you're able to speak with locals about their coin collecting habits.

[EZ_E]

I'm trying to get collect all versions of all silver Pandas, domestic and foreign. It'll be interesting to hear what you turn up in China if you're able to speak with locals about their coin collecting habits.

 

 

If I find out anything, I'll make mention of it.

[bsshog40]

My wife loves these things. I bought her one for Christmas last year and just purchased this one this year for her.

[DC Dawg]

I just ordered a 2007 Silver Panda. As soon as my camera comes back from being repaired, I should be able to post pictures!

 

Scott

[trozau]

Because of the yearly change in design (except 2001/2002), the gold panda is the only bullion series I keep up to date. Sleeper series are the 1 oz Coin Show Pandas and 1 oz Platinum Pandas that has low mintages and reasonable premiums.

[Pecus100-migration]

I'm wondering whether there is a link between the panda market and the lunar market? Does anyone think that the popularity of pandas will be restricted by that of lunars? When the Chinese begin collecting coins in earnest--that is when their incomes really take off--are they more likely to buy lunars than pandas? Lunars do seem to sell for about twice what pandas do.

[Zoins]

I'm wondering whether there is a link between the panda market and the lunar market? Does anyone think that the popularity of pandas will be restricted by that of lunars? When the Chinese begin collecting coins in earnest--that is when their incomes really take off--are they more likely to buy lunars than pandas? Lunars do seem to sell for about twice what pandas do.

I don't think pandas will be "restricted" in that many coin series around the world do well without lots of Chinese collectors, American coins being one of them. If/when Chinese people start getting involved with coins, I think there will be more than enough people to drive both the panda and lunar coin series, there's a lot of Chinese out there.

[trozau]

Another thing is that lunar series only go for 12 years then you repeat. The Chinese lunar series gold has completed 1 series and is on the second (IIRC). The Australian Chinese lunar series gold has just ended and who knows if they will start another one.

[EZ_E]

I don't think pandas will be "restricted" in that many coin series around the world do well without lots of Chinese collectors, American coins being one of them. If/when Chinese people start getting involved with coins, I think there will be more than enough people to drive both the panda and lunar coin series, there's a lot of Chinese out there.

 

I don't see too many Chinese becoming coin collectors. Professionals with college degrees only make around $300/month. That doesn't leave much expendable income. Plus, the Chinese gov't limits the amount of gold or silver which can be exported to, I think, 4 ounces. That's a shame since I would be interested in purchasing a domestic set. Well, I'll be going to and fro from China for years to come so I may just pick up a few at a time...

[Zoins]

I don't see too many Chinese becoming coin collectors. Professionals with college degrees only make around $300/month. That doesn't leave much expendable income. Plus, the Chinese gov't limits the amount of gold or silver which can be exported to, I think, 4 ounces. That's a shame since I would be interested in purchasing a domestic set. Well, I'll be going to and fro from China for years to come so I may just pick up a few at a time...

Let us know how things are over there. I've been reading that there are a number of Chinese millionaires and the sales people I know that travel to China have told me that they are wined and dined by people who seem to be making much more than $300/month. That being said, I've read that Chinese millionaires are collecting Chinese art (both classic and modern) not coins. Some modern Chinese artists have seen their paintings rise in value from $20K to over a million, from Chinese buyers based in China.

 

I think the thing in China is that you can't just be a professional with a college degree, you have to be an entrepreneur. You don't want to be the person working in the factory, you want to be the person organizing those workers and selling services.

[Larry Dreher]

I'm sorry for bringing up an old thread but I do have some information that I think is relavent. I've been off this forum for a while so I didn't catch it until I just did a search.

 

I've been actively collecting Pandas for over 2 years now. I've probably sent in over 500 to be graded by NGC and have bought and sold many raw and graded pandas on eBay.

 

Two years ago I was able to buy relatively large quantities of good quality pandas directly from Chinese dealers. In the last six months or so I have seen a major change. It's now very common for me to sell pandas to the dealers who I used to buy from. They say I can get them cheaper in the US on ebay than they can in the domestic market. They then turn around and sell the coins I provide to local buyers.

 

The prices have been moving up very nicely in the market. I recently sold a 1984 silver panda NGC PF69UC for over $1500. That same coin would have sold for $500 a year ago. The proof issues from 1991 - 1996 are becoming increasingly difficult to find. On the BU side, The 1991 BU is now selling for about $100. A year ago it was probably $60-70. Times are interesting in the panda market. I've specifically noted the silver series. I'm less familiar with the gold panda market.

[Pecus100-migration]

That's good news. Perhaps we're right that there is a growing market for pandas in China! If humanity can survive the next fifty years, pandas might well become one of the most exciting coins to collect.

 

On another issue: Does anyone know for certain whether the outer, soft plastic pouch that pandas come in contains PVC, and, if it does, will that PVC leach onto the coins that are contained in the hard plastic holders inside these pouches? It would be comforting to know that the inner hard plastic container will keep whatever PVC might be in the pouch from contaminating the coins indefinitely. It seems fairly certain that these outer pouches will serve to establish a coin's authenticity and thus should not be removed.

[Larry Dreher]

Jay Turner from NGC says the pouches contain PVC and he's seen coins damaged from it. I think the silver coins are less likely to be damaged becaise they are double sealed but I don't personallt riisk it.

 

The question you are going to have to ask is, how quickly do you want to sell? If you are looking for a sale in the next few years, I'd leave them in the pouches. NGC & PCGS pandas in 69 & 70 do command a nice premium to raw though so you might want to consider getting them graded. Putting them raw into an album would offer the least resale liquidity.

 

Good Luck. I'll have 150 or so pandas going into NGC in the next couple of weeks.

[samwyi-migration]

hi guys, I'm a Chinese coin collector now studying in US. I had some experience in the gold and silver coin market in China 5 years ago. Here, Let me say a few words.

 

In the past 10 years, the gold and silver coin market in China is very unstable. It jumped to its peak dramatically and fell down quickly. The price of some types could double in several weeks, because large funds and dealers were manipulating the market. When the bubble broke, individual investors and collectors were deeply harmed.

 

However, this did not happen for silver and gold Panda because the issues are too huge to be manipulated. This is both good and bad. It's good because there is not bubble in the price. It's bad because people are often intimidated by this huge series. Since there are smaller series available, e.g. lunar animal, Budda, myth..., they may turn to these series.

 

About the size of the silver/gold coin market, I would estimate 20,000-100,000 collectors/dealers, mainly in big cities. But not sure how many collecting pandas. Someone made an estimated before, I'll see if I can find it. On the whole, people out of big cities have no chance to touch silver/gold coins.

 

One unique situation in China is that the ancient coin community is growing big and the market has been very strong in the past 10 years. I would estimate >200,000 people collecting and investing ancient ones (one major forum has 90,000 members). Few of them know about current silver and gold coins.

 

Generally, I think the domestic market is not large now, but the panda silver market has the potential to increase slowly. I may be wrong...