Buy key coins now or hold out for awhile?

[JD-migration]

I'm sure this is a subject that is near and dear to everyone. I've been assimilating a set of MS Morgans with the goal being all coins as close as financially possible to MS65 with nothing better ( matching set). All are NGC and PCGS and white with the exception of a few beautiful, gold rim toned coins (my favorites). I'm close to my goal, only missing about 5 key/semi key coins. Finding the remaining coins, matching white~gold rim toned in MS63~64 has been difficult and extremely competitive. Typically, pop reports are around 100 coins or so in the grade I want to buy and about 25 or so better. GS ask price is in the $4,000 range.

 

Here's the questions:

 

Should I be more agressive in what I will pay, or should I wait awhile in case this "boom" in coins passes and prices settle?

 

What do you consider a reasonable value to pay for this type of coin, bid, ask, retail or whatever it takes to buy it?

 

Thanks for your input.

[MikeKing]

I find the Heritage Value Index a really good guide, besides searching the auction histories. I also think that Morgans have bumped up in price recently, that they were late in doing so, but might still be had at a decent price, so long as you know what you are looking for. Key Morgan issues, on the other hand, I haven't studied, and what I just said, might not apply (except for using the Heritage Value Index as a guide).

[ms66quarters]

JD

 

Key Date's ARE Key Date's.....

 

Trying to "jump in" at the right time is a shot in the dark.

Just to make a small analogy would be the same as buying that certain stock at the "right" time.

 

I feel the market for key date's will alway's be in favor as far as the market is concerned.

 

If you have the fund's, to buy the coin you want and need,it is in your style range, by all mean's buy it.

 

By waiting for the perfect time to buy,you wil lose the coin, and also drive yourself crazy.

 

To give you an idea, I collect silver washington quarter's,I decided to take the "plunge" and get the two key date's in the serie's....the '32-D and S in MS-63 and MS-64 respectively.

 

I bought these 2 coin's in february and they have appreciated over 10% since!

 

Sometime's you ask yourself I shoulda, woulda, coulda....

and "Damned if you do and Damned if you don't"

 

 

Rob

[mrearlygold]

I think nice dollars have a long long way to go ( up)

 

Rgrds

TP

[topsman]

There only going to keep going up in price as more collectors enter the hobby. It's the law of supply and demand. Espically Key Dates, I would say get them while you still can.

[tip-migration]

I don't think any coins have gone down in value that I recall. In the early 80s I picked up a couple of elusive Lincolns and paid premium for them. Lincolns and other sets took a really big jump at that time and it took many years for them to increase even 10% more. But I am glad I bought them even then.

The Indian Head cents are in the beginnings of increases. The very early Large Cents are almost out of most collectors means now where 10 to 15 years ago you could get them for a couple/few hundred. So I say buy them as you can now, they will increase.

Tip

[reid1836]

Hi JD,

Here`s the paradox of your situation as I see it ! How long do you want to wait ? According to the guru`s of the numismatic market, prices for key date coins over the next few years are going to be robust to say the least. Indicating a definite rise in values and pricing. Of course eventually everything that goes up must come down, or something to that affect. Question is how far down will they come ? A 20% drop in tomorrows prices may in effect be a 50% increase in todays. Also consider this, if by some stretch of the imagination the fall in values should be more drastic in nature and drop to what you would consider to be a real deal today. Would you really want buy it, for fear of paying to much should the values fall further ? My biased advice to you is if you want it and can afford it, then buy it !

My bias, is that I collect only the key dates from each series. Common date coins be they beautifully toned or extremely high grade hold no interest for me. Key date coins on the other hand give me a thrill ! I receive great enjoyment from possessing a nice example from the various series that embodies a sense of rarity. Owning a small example of a da`Vinci, Monet, or Picasso of numismatics is for me at least, like jet setting for the average Joe ! The category in which I reside. Hence my signature.

[Oldtrader3]

Key date prices in higher grades increase faster than other coins. They also decline more in a down cycle. Some series are better performers than others. However, it is always risky to use the past to predict the future. The collector base has increased dramatically since 1989 and key material has not. IMHO, buying key dates is a good plan in all but a very overheated market.

[EZ_E]

Hi JD,

Here`s the paradox of your situation as I see it ! How long do you want to wait ? According to the guru`s of the numismatic market, prices for key date coins over the next few years are going to be robust to say the least. Indicating a definite rise in values and pricing. Of course eventually everything that goes up must come down, or something to that affect. Question is how far down will they come ? A 20% drop in tomorrows prices may in effect be a 50% increase in todays. Also consider this, if by some stretch of the imagination the fall in values should be more drastic in nature and drop to what you would consider to be a real deal today. Would you really want buy it, for fear of paying to much should the values fall further ? My biased advice to you is if you want it and can afford it, then buy it !

My bias, is that I collect only the key dates from each series. Common date coins be they beautifully toned or extremely high grade hold no interest for me. Key date coins on the other hand give me a thrill ! I receive great enjoyment from possessing a nice example from the various series that embodies a sense of rarity. Owning a small example of a da`Vinci, Monet, or Picasso of numismatics is for me at least, like jet setting for the average Joe ! The category in which I reside. Hence my signature.

 

Very well stated! It is refreshing to read your point of view since I am the exact opposite. I collect high grade types and am more concerned with quality than with mintage rarity. One could make an argument that high grade types with their relatively low population are actually rarer than the average key dated coin.

[reid1836]

 

I would agree that certain high quality specimens in common dates are rarer than many key date coins. But, rarity does not always translate into higher values . I`d like to quote from another collector who addressed both sides of the coin (so to speak), and that has had my greatest admiration for quite some time." Key dates will always be key dates and common dates will always be common dates" By. Q. David Bowers.

[EZ_E]

" Key dates will always be key dates and common dates will always be common dates" By. Q. David Bowers.

 

I certainly can't argue against that point, Reid.

[SilverGigolo]

How about the "sleepers"? Everyone knows what the key dates are. I find trying to determine which coin or two in a series is the sleeper that can be purchased for less makes the hunt even more fun. It sometimes seems the key date is overvalued and is not a good buy.

[BillJones]

" Key dates will always be key dates and common dates will always be common dates" By. Q. David Bowers.

 

I can't argue against that point either, but the question is, have the prices for key date coins gone up too much and too quickly relative to the price of common coins?

 

In some cases I'd say yes. Prime among those are coins that a very scarce by decidedly not rare. I'm talking about coins that once sold for lower end 5 figure numbers that now sell for 6 figure numbers.

 

Yes, these coins are scarce, but the supply of them is too large to sustain those prices if some of those who have paid record prices decide to sell. Once you get beyond a certain point, the number of people who can pay or are willing to pay a 6-figure price for a coin is quite small. It does not take too many changes in taste to result in a tunble in prices.

[reid1836]

To that end Bill I would have to agree. But certain coins will always belong to only the finacial elite. But, you know? I really don`t miss them at all.

[Grumps]

You can never go wrong with a key date coin. While there may be a momentary drop in value at some point, it is a key date coin. It's highly prized and collected, will always be in demand, and will probably always have the potential to go up in value over time especially if you are dealing with high grade coins which are usually rare compared to a more common grade. Jump in when you see what you like. I'm sure you won't regret it over time.

[paperchaser-migration]

Best numismatic advice I ever received was 'buy the key dates FIRST'.

Now, in your particular situation -- buy 'em when you can find them when you can afford them. Perhaps with the Morgan market "higher" right now why not sell off some of your real winners and use the cash for key dates. You can always find the 'common dates' (1881S, etc). just an opinion