What makes ASEs valuable?

[pendragon1998]

Perhaps this is a stupid question, but what is is that makes some American Silver Eagle proofs more valuable than others? I understand about the 1995-W, which was only made in very low numbers and released with gold eagles in a set, but what about the other coins? Does the mint not release mintage figures until several years later, at which time there's a big rush and prices soar? Sorry if this is a dumb question.

[TJ'S Coins]

You can answer this question on several levels. One of the most beautiful obverse designs taken from Adoph Weinman's Walking Liberty Half Dollars. A .999 pure one troy ounce silver coin from one of the most prosperous nations on earth. A coin that appeals not only as bullion but also as a collectible item for many. Modern mint proofs are superb coins with an unparalleld overall quality from earlier days.

 

It is the same formula for any highly sought coin. High public demand and a variety of mintages, some low, that create a tighter market for those that exist. If it wasn't for the demand from collectors and investors, this coin would not carry the premium that it does.

 

Consider its bullion cousin, the platinum coin. There are far lesser amounts of them minted each year but the demand is not there to produce as high of a premium as with silver.

[pendragon1998]

That's not really what I'm asking - why are some years of ASEs more valuable than other years of issue?

[TJ'S Coins]

Numbers minted versus demand for the coin. It's always this formula unless I am missing what you are asking completely, which is entirely possible.

[TJ'S Coins]

Another scenario is that I understand the mint only makes these coins in response to customer demand. A number of people are on a subscription program with the mint which gives them a base number every year. If additional orders do not come then coins are not minted. This accounts for the swing in coins from one year to the next.

[pendragon1998]

Here is a simple plot I just put together showing cost vs. mintage for ASE proof issued from 1986-1999. I did not include the 1995-W, since it was an outlying point. If you assume a floor value of around $32-35 as being essentially the cost of purchase, you could essentially say that beyond a mintage of about 725,000, cost will hover around purchase price. At least, you could say that if price were solely determined by scarcity, which does not appear to be the case.

 

Note the cluster of coins in the lower left (91,92,96,97,98) - if they weren't there, you'd have a pretty decent linear relationship between mintage and price. They represent a cluster of coins at relatively low mintages with pretty low prices. Compare them to the cluster in the upper left (93,94,95), which have a slightly lower mintage (but not by much) and are valued much higher than the first cluster.

 

What variable is causing this clustering effect? Also, why aren't mintages available for ASEs from 2000-2006?

 

 

Year..........Mintage..........Price

86-S.........1446778..........$32

87-S..........904732..........$32

88-S..........557370..........$85

89-S..........617694..........$45

90-S..........695510..........$37

91-S..........511925..........$62

92-S..........498654..........$50

93-P..........403625..........$185

94-P..........372168..........$200

95-P..........395400..........$175

96-P..........476021..........$50

97-P..........429682..........$85

98-P..........452319..........$62

99-P..........549769..........$75

[Jeff S]

Just as with the MS's some years the Mint did not produce as many Higher grade coins for certain years. Plus the fact that some of the encapsulations did cause PVC damage that the mint used . Then you have the fact that certain dealers hoarded certain years and are still holding on to them making the supply low at this time. I know 1 dealer who has 50,000 of the 98's and 25,000 of the 96's. So I am sure there is others who have done this. Bottom line is supply and demand.

[MunkyMan95]

You personally know one of those dealers??? Ask him to give you 1,000 or so! Man, 25,000 96 SAE's... That's like a million dollar minimum!

[astrostu]

Just as with the MS's some years the Mint did not produce as many Higher grade coins for certain years. Plus the fact that some of the encapsulations did cause PVC damage that the mint used . Then you have the fact that certain dealers hoarded certain years and are still holding on to them making the supply low at this time. I know 1 dealer who has 50,000 of the 98's and 25,000 of the 96's. So I am sure there is others who have done this. Bottom line is supply and demand.

 

Yeah, that's insane. Tell 'im to share the wealth!

 

It's one of the modern series that I'm trying to assemble, and it's just insane that the 1993-1995 proofs are like 4+ times more expensive than the others ... I'm just telling myself that those will be holes in my collection for awhile until I have a nice, high-paying astronomy job.

[pendragon1998]

If a high-paying astronomy job is anything like a high-paying ornithology job, my heart goes out to you.

[DaveG]

Pendragon,

 

Just out of curiosity, are the prices you quoted actual (taken from eBay, Teletrade, dealer ads, etc) or price guide "prices"?

[pendragon1998]

They're from the 1996 ed. of the red book. Although they may not be market-accurate, they ought to at least be somewhat parallel to the actual numbers.

[astrostu]

Pendragon,

 

Just out of curiosity, are the prices you quoted actual (taken from eBay, Teletrade, dealer ads, etc) or price guide "prices"?

 

As of last week, they're pretty representative of what the local coin dealer here was asking ... in the $30s-40s for most of them, but climbing past $60 for early 1990s and then around $200 for the 1993-5. I think he bases his prices off of Greysheets.

[Beijim]

If a high-paying astronomy job is anything like a high-paying ornithology job, my heart goes out to you.

[jtryka]

Just remember, the mid-90s sucked for collectors. Gold was down, silver was just climbing to the rim of the toilet bowl, and no one cared about coins, and no one bought coins. This was before eBay and internet hype, so people bought from dealers and from the mint. A lot of the coins from that time are very valuable today because NO ONE bought them then! Those insane 96 Atlanta olympic coin (what were there like a hundred of them?) were not great coins at all making even fewer people want to buy them then. As a result mintages were lower, and now in a hot market these coins are the ones everyone needs for sets! Look, the ASE proof, the 96 unc ASEs, the NCS commem, the Olympic coins (as ugly as they were), there are a lot of valuable coins from that era now because it sucked back then!

[pendragon1998]

...so why aren't there mintage figures in my red book for the 2000-2006 ASE?

[Jazzy]

Dealer hoarding is one of the reasons I would shy away from investing in ASEs.

 

That, and the inaccurate mintage numbers - you could pay top dollar for a bunch of 94s, say, and then have their value drop if the market was suddenly glutted with a hoard. If you want silver bullion, just buy silver bullion at spot.

 

Of course, I have a few ASEs because I think they're beautiful coins, but I only collect coins - no investing.

 

I'm also annoyed by the collusion between dealers and the mint. Why is a dealers money better than mine?

[pendragon1998]

Indeed - I only collect them since I like them. If I was going to go into silver investing, I'd be getting it in bar form or something. Along the lines of what you were saying, I'm mildly annoyed about the way the mint sells coins like those Franklin commem. dollars in such large quantities to individuals. It makes my cost to buy go way up when I could have just bought from the mint. - I guess the dealers have to make money too. Just seems like the mint is being a bit preferential for a government agency. Just sour grapes, I suppose.

[astrostu]

...so why aren't there mintage figures in my red book for the 2000-2006 ASE?

 

Bad editing? They're in the CoinWorld book up to 2004 (since it was published in 2005, it doesn't have those).

 

Year.....MS.................PR

2000....9,239,132.....746,154

2001....9,001,711.....600,000

2002....10,539,026...647,342

2003....8,495,008.....747,831

2004....8,882,754.....813,477

 

 

And I collect because I like them, not to invest. I just like to have complete collections.

[jtryka]

...so why aren't there mintage figures in my red book for the 2000-2006 ASE?

 

They're from the 1996 ed. of the red book. Although they may not be market-accurate, they ought to at least be somewhat parallel to the actual numbers.

 

Maybe that is the reason? I haven't checked my 06 edition, thougn it's possible they have not been officially released. In any case I think there was a limit of 750,000 set by congress, though that was raised to 850,000 in 2003 or 2004, if I recall correctly. The following link gives the mintages for the unc coins through last year: http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/index.cfm?action=MintageTotals

[pendragon1998]

Oops...meant to say 2006 edition - I was thinking about the 90's when I wrote that.

 

I've edited the graph to reflect astrostu's mintage numbers from '00-'04.

[DaveG]

Mybe the mintage figures aren't in the Red Book because they're too lazy to go to the Mint's website and look them up in their Annual Reports?