Coin Values vs. Rarity

[MichaelG-migration]

I've been glancing at the population reports, and an obvious question come up - what is the relationship between population and value? One thing is obvious - it's far from a direct relationship. I collect Morgans, so my statistics will reflect them. I've always thought 1892 s Morgans in AU were overpriced. Population figures are:

.........au50.....................53 ....................... 55 .......................58

.........138.......................74 ....................... 74 .......................47

...$1,000-1,200.........1,850-2,250...........2,700-3,300..........5,000-6,250

 

Heritage values are posted below

 

Here's the same figures for an 1896 s

.........au50...................... 53.......................55.......................58

.........12..........................11.......................15.......................10

....$255-325.................300-385...............335-435...............405-520

 

There are dozens of similar examples (though most aren't as drastic). One circumstance that could account for some of the discrepancy is that since there is such a significant difference in price between grades in the 92 s, perhaps many coins have been resubmitted with hopes of an upgrade (this would be more likely in the MS grades). What other factors would account for this difference? Inquiring minds would like to know.

 

Michael

 

 

[JamminJ]

Hi MichaelG

 

Perhaps it's because the prices on uncirculated 96S's are a small fraction of those for the 92S's? Most Morgan folks seem to prefer uncirculated coins, but the 92S is simply out of reach for many in uncirculated while the 96S can be is not.

 

I'd be interested to see the pops for some of the lower uncirculated coins for those two, to just how available the two are.

 

My thoughts,

-JamminJ

[Oldtrader3]

In total grade populations of MS63-65, the 1896-S Morgan is about 15 times more available than the 1892-S (Pop. 270 vs. 16). Hence the difference in price.

 

Where you get the disparities is between series (i.e. Barber vs. Earlier Merc's). Series popularity (and promotibility) is worth a significant demand premium in this game. There are many Morgans that are many times more plentiful, yet equivalently priced to same grade coins from other much more scarce series. Examples would be Barber Half Dollars to Morgan's. Problem free Barber Half Dollars populations in MS64 and above are almost none-existant in most mint marks and dates.

 

The fact is that some series are real sleepers. I do not care what the pops. show for Pre-1900 Liberty Quarter-Eagles and Half-Eagles. Prices are relatively low, however they are impossible to find in MS62+, even way above bid. The coins are closely held by older collectors (like me) and do not appear until Estate Auction sales.

 

The market on these coins is relatively thin, which is surprising, considering their price in relationship to Morgan's, until to realize that the thin gold populations absolutely preclude promotion by dealers, or even availability to collectors. I have been tring to finish a "Short Set" of 20th Century, Lib Half Eagles (sounds easy, eh!) for over a 1-1/2 years and I can not find the coins in any kind of reasonable shape for grade and price.

 

Decent price for properly graded (anywhere near Bid+++ prices) MS63 1902-S and 1906-S coins are nonexistant. This is almost as bad as Trime collecting, which is a passion and I expected severe challenges with (I found challenges in spades!).