PCGS TRENDS... good for ascertaining current value?

[Carterofmars]

I notice the mention of TRENDS alot regarding price. I see it on E-bay and other places as well.

 

Question:

I've learned that prob the best way to asertain current value is past/current auction prices, but how much weight should be given to the TRENDS price, and how does PSCG arrive at a TRENDS price?

 

TIA (Thanks inadvance)

[chinook]

but how much weight should be given to the TRENDS price,

 

Zero.

 

how does PSCG arrive at a TRENDS price?

 

No one knows how PCGS arrives at their coin values.

 

The BEST price guide for commonly traded coins would be auction archives. However keep in mind that this is only a guide and not all similiarlly graded coins are created equally. Some have a "look" that will demand a premium over a coin that does not have the "look".

 

The "look" is open for interpretation, as it can vary between collectors, but I think you will recognize it when you see it.

[EZ_E]

Most all price guides are extremely unrealistic, including PCGS's. Coin World Trends, in my opinion, is just a dealer's fantasy want list for selling coins. Auctions are not necessarily a true litmus test, either. Many a buyer gets caught up in the moment and way overbids. The best market gauge is to see what reputable dealers are selling their coins for via shows, ads or websites. Having a knowledgable friend who specializes in a certain series and who just knows the market is even more valuable than that, even.

[Carterofmars]

Most all price guides are extremely unrealistic, including PCGS's. Coin World Trends, in my opinion, is just a dealer's fantasy want list for selling coins. Auctions are not necessarily a true litmus test, either. Many a buyer gets caught up in the moment and way overbids. The best market gauge is to see what reputable dealers are selling their coins for via shows, ads or websites. Having a knowledgable friend who specializes in a certain series and who just knows the market is even more valuable than that, even.

 

Mr Yuk:

 

What about grey sheet?

 

I was asking similar questions on another forum and the concensus was that to arrive at current value: best is past auction stats (Heritage more so than E-bay for the reason you stated), then grey sheet.

 

Whats your thoughts?

[EZ_E]

Michael could answer that much better than I but the greysheet will give more of an idea of trends, i.e. pluses or minuses. It is still somewhat unrealistic but gives a basic idea as to what the market is doing. An actual coin could sell for at greysheet ask or multiples of it depending upon the coin itself.

 

David Bowers recently posed the question of whether the coin market would still be strong even if it didn't have pricing guides. He resounded with a strong affirmative! There are many collectable markets which are strong but have no official price sheets/guides (like numismatics at the turn of the twentieth century). But yet, dealers and buyers find a comfortable ground with regards to buying and selling. But, one must have a finger on the pulse of the market o/w a newcomer could be taken bigtime.

[Tradedollarnut]

The specialists in each series have the best knowledge of buy and sell prices for those coins. With that in mind, it's obvious that Trends is sometimes correct, sometimes high and sometimes low. I can point to as many low prices in my series as high.

 

IMO, the PCGS price guides are much more accurate than Trends now - they are being updated fairly regularly in response to current auction pricing.

[James_OldeTowne]

First of all, "Trends" DOES NOT refer to the PCGS price guide. It refers to the periodic price guide published by Coin World.

 

In my opinion, the PCGS price guide is almost a complete waste of cyber-space, and has little basis in reality. The values are usually inflated almost across the board! I have no idea why they publish such an outlandish price "guide", but I caution you to steer clear.

 

"Trends" is also, in general, too high, though usually not as outlandish as the PCGS guide. They are especially too high regarding most moderns, but oddly, "Trends" tends to be too low for classic material in popular collector grades, such as bust half-dimes, non-net-graded early copper, etc.

 

"Greysheet" is the safest price guide, though there again, there are some ridiculous numbers that seem to have been entered in 1983, and never updated. A classic example is sheet for the 1801 Draped Bust half. I'll gladly pay DOUBLE sheet for this coin, anytime, anywhere.

 

Finally, auction archives, which are an instantaneous reflection of the real market, are very good for analysis, but there are caveats too. Remember that much of an auction house's purpose is to HYPE up their wares, so I frankly believe that many of their numbers are inflated as well.

 

Here's what my experience as an occasional "coin dealer" tells me, with regard to what shoppers carry around with them. Grey-sheet is #1 by far, "Trends" and "Red book" are #2, auction results are a distant #3, and the PCGS price guide does not even enter the picture, not even close. NOBODY has ever shown me one at any show, but I HAVE seen the other references used.

 

So the quick answer is: use the grey-sheet, and supplement with the occasional dose of reality that auction archives give you.

 

James

[rexcat]

Hi guys, good points have been made in this thread with one point in particular being, retail price guides are pretty much a joke.

 

You have to watch the market yourself though sources like auctions results, dealer listing; the internet has made this information so much easier to get, (not to mention coins themselves) these days, and the good old Coin Dealer Newsletter, (grey sheet).

 

The grey sheets are also the source most dealers use to base prices from, like my local dealer, he’ll offer me 10% back of GS bid on coins that I’m wanting to sell, so I feel it is the most helpful pricing guide. One has to bear in mind though that grey sheet bids are considered wholesale dealer to dealer pricing and dealers like to sell their coins above the prices listed in the grey sheets. Generally I feel the closer I get to or below bid on my own purchases the better I did.

[Beijim]

Lots of excellent replies here. I concur wholeheartedly about the PCGS nonsense. Those "prices" are straight from Fantasyland. Unless, of course, you're in the market for a 2005-D Sacagawea $1 in questionable business strike Pop 1 PCGS MS68. In that case, use the price guide to set your initial bid and proceed from there. Don't forget to redose every four hours.

 

I'll add only that, in my opinion, the most egregious abuse (a.k.a. monkey spanking) of the PCGS numbers is when some sleazy eBay seller hypes the listing of an NGC graded coin by citing the PCGS guide. What possible relationship, other than imaginary, could there be between entries in the PCGS price guide and eBay sale prices for NGC graded coins?

 

In my opinion, the best guides for current values are, as others have stated, recent auction results. I've had great success in tracking eBay sales for coins in which I'm interested, then bidding at the low end of the range. Trust yourself and your ability to determine what constitutes good value. If after learning the market you like a particular coin at a certain price, there's an excellent chance someone else will as well.

 

Beijim

[Bruceswar]

even if the PCGS price guide is high.... or so seems.... many coins in PCGS slabs get close to those prices.... I find that in the Wash Qtr part... the back half is rather worthless... but the first part is much closer.... sometimes not even in a slab.... I recently bought a 1942 S QTR in BU... It turns out MS 64 .... but the coin was marked $115.00 in which MS 63 is $115.00 on the PCGS guide... Its not totally out of the water... just look at pricing coins this way....

1. Does the coin suit you?

2. Do you like the coin?

3. Does it seem like a good deal to you?

4. Check around for some simular coins, Ebay, Hertitage, etc

5. Past that if you like... have the money.... then buy it.. the rest is trivial... If you are a collector that is....

[Mozin]

First of all, "Trends" DOES NOT refer to the PCGS price guide. It refers to the periodic price guide published by Coin World.

 

In my opinion, the PCGS price guide is almost a complete waste of cyber-space, and has little basis in reality. The values are usually inflated almost across the board! I have no idea why they publish such an outlandish price "guide", but I caution you to steer clear.

 

"Trends" is also, in general, too high, though usually not as outlandish as the PCGS guide. They are especially too high regarding most moderns, but oddly, "Trends" tends to be too low for classic material in popular collector grades, such as bust half-dimes, non-net-graded early copper, etc.

 

"Greysheet" is the safest price guide, though there again, there are some ridiculous numbers that seem to have been entered in 1983, and never updated. A classic example is sheet for the 1801 Draped Bust half. I'll gladly pay DOUBLE sheet for this coin, anytime, anywhere.

 

Finally, auction archives, which are an instantaneous reflection of the real market, are very good for analysis, but there are caveats too. Remember that much of an auction house's purpose is to HYPE up their wares, so I frankly believe that many of their numbers are inflated as well.

 

Here's what my experience as an occasional "coin dealer" tells me, with regard to what shoppers carry around with them. Grey-sheet is #1 by far, "Trends" and "Red book" are #2, auction results are a distant #3, and the PCGS price guide does not even enter the picture, not even close. NOBODY has ever shown me one at any show, but I HAVE seen the other references used.

 

So the quick answer is: use the grey-sheet, and supplement with the occasional dose of reality that auction archives give you.

 

James

Pretty hard for me to add to this fine list. It is right on target. Remember that coins with great eye appeal will go for MANY extra bucks over average lookers.