Right time to invest in Rare Key Dates?

[Carterofmars]

New Collector here...

 

I'm Quoting David Hall on PCGS' web site here...

The rare coin market moves in cycles. Bull markets usually last 4 to 6 years and Bear markets usually last 2 to 3 years.

 

He then goes on to say...

 

The coin market started picking up in the last few months of 2001. Coins were very hot throughout 2002 and even hotter in 2003. We are definitely in another Bull market. How long it will last and how far it will go will be determined by many factors, but one could make the argument that a combination of factors that were evident in the past four Bull markets are now all evident in this new Bull market. The next few years should be very exciting for all coin market participants.

 

Question:

Does anyone think we are in the tail end of a Bull Market? If we are, maybe I'll hold off on any large key date purchases... maybe concentrate on common dates... have fun with that, then when the Bear comes along, start the large KEY DATE purchases.

 

Ant thoughts?

[James_OldeTowne]

I think the safest advice is that you pretty much can never go wrong buying key dates. The lone exception might be Morgan dollars right now, which seem inflated to me. Key date Seated coins, for example, seem to be available at reasonable, though constantly escalating prices.

 

James

[Carterofmars]

James:

 

What do you think of the peace dollar key dates right now?

[EZ_E]

I think that this market has along way to go before it tapers out. Certain series (such as key dates) have seen a major upswing in prices in the past few years and may eventually readjust their prices. Once demand slows down due to ridiculously high prices then a price adjustment will follow. I would be hesitant to purchase keys at today's market prices. The prudent thing to do, IMO, is to purchase coins that have not had such a huge appreciation in their values such as pre 1915 type coins in fresh, original, eye-appealing grades. These have not quite reached their peaks, have very low mintages and are just great coins all around. For the price of a low grade 1916 D Merc with a mintage of 264,000, one could buy an awesome proof type with a mintage of even 600 or less. I feel that you could never loose money in this market as long as you don't buy problem coins. One should always try to avoid the 'buts' (with reasonable exceptions, of course). I.E., this would be a rather fetching piece 'but' for the.....

[Carterofmars]

I feel that you could never loose money in this market as long as you don't buy problem coins.

 

By this market, do you mean this current bear market we're in? And, when you say problem coins , do you mean lowgrade coins, like say below AU50?

 

I'm trying to pick up key dates in moderatly higher grades (AU50 to MS65) but hope not be be buying on the real high end.

[truthteller]

Many key dates in the Barbers series, 10C through 50C have not moved much in 5 years in grades MS60-64. In comparison, most Buff 5C better dates have dramatically risen in the same time frame. Better dates are a good bet long term, 10 years, while the higher grade semi-keys tend to be more cyclical. But beware, many key dates in high grade don't carry a premium when you need to sell quickly. Usually a collector must be found, then a substantial premium can be attained.

 

 

 

TRUTH

[EZ_E]

Geez, I just wrote you an essay but it was lost!

 

Anyway,I certainly won't rewrite all that I wrote.

 

But, solid coins regardless of their grades will always be liquidable and retain their appeal and value.

 

Another point which I wrote is to beware of market grading on key date coins. I have literally seen key dates such as the '16 D Merc graded as F12 which was barely a VG but yet selling at Fine prices. Yet, one must buy certified coins since there are so many altered, counterfeited or problem pieces out there. So, it is definitely a catch 22.

 

Sure, there are some key dates out there that I would love to have but I would much rather put my money towards coins that are solid, have great potential and have not seen the huge price appreciation as some of the other series/dates have encountered.

 

Anyway, 'tis a shame that my other post was timed out. I had some great points in it.

 

Well, anyway, hope that this helps.

[TomB]

Any grade coin can be problem-free, there is no minimum grade cutoff for this criteria. As for key dates, many have moved up substantially in the last few years, though that alone would not preclude additional gains.

[Carterofmars]

Yuk...

 

Too bad you lost the response. Well thanks for the info anyway.

 

Another thing I'm reading up on is "Undervalued coins." I'm looking for those as well.

[Carterofmars]

Tom:

 

Thats some incredible coins on your site!

[michael]

I think that this market has along way to go before it tapers out. Certain series (such as key dates) have seen a major upswing in prices in the past few years and may eventually readjust their prices. Once demand slows down due to ridiculously high prices then a price adjustment will follow. I would be hesitant to purchase keys at today's market prices. The prudent thing to do, IMO, is to purchase coins that have not had such a huge appreciation in their values such as pre 1915 type coins in fresh, original, eye-appealing grades. These have not quite reached their peaks, have very low mintages and are just great coins all around. For the price of a low grade 1916 D Merc with a mintage of 264,000, one could buy an awesome proof type with a mintage of even 600 or less. I feel that you could never loose money in this market as long as you don't buy problem coins. One should always try to avoid the 'buts' (with reasonable exceptions, of course). I.E., this would be a rather fetching piece 'but' for the.....

 

 

the top of this market?? you aint seen nothing yet

 

another ten years or more

 

just make sure you buy pre 1916 ms and proof monster eye appeal solid for the grade and/or PQ coins for the grade

the coins need to be interesting and of historical interest

also good eye appealling circ type pre 1915 coins

 

opportubity and value coins

 

in my opinion the above are all "keys" with these above qualities

 

my keys that are opportunity value coins with a funemdenintial reason to rise in demand

[Carterofmars]

Micheal thanks for the reply...

 

So, you think pre 1916 MS and PR are the way to go huh?

 

I have recently read alot about "Undervalued Coins"; seeking out dates in a series that look to be undervalued compared to other coins in the series with similar mintages. Is this prudent?

[Oldtrader3]

Buy the highest grade coins, with the best eye appeal, that you can afford. They will always be easier to sell and command better prices. Most of us learn this the hard way.

 

H(is) R(oyal) H(ighness), David Hall is a salesman, not a coin expert. I have been reading his sheet ever since he started. He never calls a sell market, only buy!

 

Read some coin books before you spend much money. They will save you more than they cost. Many minor silver classic issues (pre-1916) still have not reached their potential. Barber halfs are still undervalued and scarce.

[McKinley-migration]

from what i know, regular dates hardly change in value... it's the keys that produce... any time is a good time to invest in keys. just do it...

[Buffalo_Pete]

Get em while you can. That's my opinion on Keys.

 

The market bends upward and downward on coin prices.

 

In my opinion, you can't go wrong with Keys. They are the coins that everybody needs to finish a set. Very rarely do they go down in price.

 

The pressures put on them by supply and demand always make them good choices for purchase.

 

A lot of them may be overpriced..........

 

But their demand supports them.

 

Pete

[Carterofmars]

Geez, I just wrote you an essay but it was lost!

 

Sure, there are some key dates out there that I would love to have but I would much rather put my money towards coins that are solid, have great potential and have not seen the huge price appreciation as some of the other series/dates have encountered.

 

Anyway, 'tis a shame that my other post was timed out. I had some great points in it.

 

Well, anyway, hope that this helps.

 

EZ_E

 

Thats what I'm researching now. Solid coins in not as popular series with low mintages; for example some Seated Dimes. I've been seeing alot of articles latley describing undervalued coins that have good chances of getting a "Jump in value". I'm not looking to turn a quick buck but want coins that may appreciate well over the long haul.

 

Any thoughts?

[ldhair]

I'm not looking to turn a quick buck but want coins that may appreciate well over the long hall.

 

Very wise.

[EZ_E]

[

 

Thats what I'm researching now. Solid coins in not as popular series with low mintages; for example some Seated Dimes. I've been seeing alot of articles latley describing undervalued coins that have good chances of getting a "Jump in value". I'm not looking to turn a quick buck but want coins that may appreciate well over the long haul.

 

Any thoughts?

 

 

Brother Buzz,

 

That is the perfect approach with the right attitude and mind set!!

 

 

You are worthy to be taken to show & tell at The Numismatic School of Thought!

[mhardin2413]

i tend to agree with most the chatter on this line. whether we are mid bull, the bull-end, or whatever, the good coins are always safe (i too agree morgans are overpriced now--there should be some great bargains one the bear arrives). seated dimes are really heating up, so the prices are already well in ascent, but as i mentioned before, seated HALF DIMES have not been discoved yet. the prices are low compared to all other seated series--they're hard to find, but the prices are good. given their small size, they wore quickly and were simply lost. it will take a long time, but it's a more managable series than the dimes.

caveat--i am not buying because i have sold everything i own except commems (including about 25 seated half dimes, all different, that went for about $5-10 each, ugh). i love the seated series, but a bad case of obsessive compulsive disorder makes sets that take too long to complete a psychological nightmare. should you take it up, good luckk

[Carterofmars]

i tend to agree with most the chatter on this line. whether we are mid bull, the bull-end, or whatever, the good coins are always safe (i too agree morgans are overpriced now--there should be some great bargains one the bear arrives). seated dimes are really heating up, so the prices are already well in ascent, but as i mentioned before, seated HALF DIMES have not been discoved yet. the prices are low compared to all other seated series--they're hard to find, but the prices are good. given their small size, they wore quickly and were simply lost. it will take a long time, but it's a more managable series than the dimes.

caveat--i am not buying because i have sold everything i own except commems (including about 25 seated half dimes, all different, that went for about $5-10 each, ugh). i love the seated series, but a bad case of obsessive compulsive disorder makes sets that take too long to complete a psychological nightmare. should you take it up, good luckk

 

Just picked up a Seated Dime 1879 MS64... BEAUTIFUL!!!! I love it!

[TomB]

Pictures! We need pictures!

[Carterofmars]

TomB it's nicely toned too! Just as soon as I replace my busted scanner. I'll post a PIC.

[TomB]

Arghhhhh!!!!!

 

Does it look like this?

[EZ_E]

Dang it, Tom, talk about teasing!!

 

 

 

You, sir, have impecable taste!

 

[John Martinez]

I consider myself a collector regarding coins and an investor regarding the securities and commodities markets. No, this is not a discussion between the two; however, related to the subject.

 

I have not found historical prices on coins in an electronic format so that I could run it through my technical trading programs. Why? It would be interesting to see how the technicals work out AND, to chart it in relation to the underlying metal commodities market.

 

In trading, "the trend is your friend". If I could establish a "trend" in coin prices, it could give me an indication - not guaranteed - of where the prices are going. That said, trying to time a bottom or top of any market is like blindly buying the holder only without regard for the coin.

 

Again, I'm not purchasing coins for "investment purposes". I do not; however, want to purchase coins that are overpriced or may have a tendency to fall in price either.

 

Who knows, I might be able to make money with my own newsletter.

[EZ_E]

David Bowers "Red Book of US Type Coins" has pricing structure thru the decades from 1946 to present. His figures are quite interesting showing some gains in the tens of thousands of percent. And, of course, high grade and scarce coins performed best.

[IGWT]

CDN has compiled and graphed prices from 1980 to the present for many series in various grades. Link to CDN

[John Martinez]

Thanks, gentlemen. This is good info, another piece of the puzzle. I need raw data to run my own analysis.

[Carterofmars]

Pictures! We need pictures!

 

Here ya go. Sorry but it's an MS60 not MS65... opps.

[IGWT]