Why Someday Moderns Will be Hot. 0

[cladking]

On 4/13/2024 at 5:12 PM, Sandon said:

Their sheer abundance and resulting low market values don't give much motivation to these owners to sell them, and those sets and singles that are sold or are otherwise held in dealer inventory provide a sufficient supply to satisfy collector demand at current prices. 

You'd be surprised how few of these sets dealers "hold" in inventory. Most keep a single set of each date and few keep more than three of four.  There is no market and sets tie up capital.  Sure dealers accumulate vast numbers of sets even if they don't offer a good price but they periodically go through and ship off all but a couple of them.  They did not check them in the old days so you'd often see sets that were short, cut, or had extraneous coins and even folding money in them.  If you asked if they checked them they said "no".  

The common wisdom is that all moderns are common and are uncollectible.  Mint sets which represent the best coins made by the US mint have been treated accordingly.   Ironically from 1965 to 1996 as the mint was putting the best coins into mint sets they described the coins in the sets as "regular production issues".  It wouldn't have mattered if they admitted the truth because the coins would have been  perceived as gilded garbage.  The reality is the coins in these sets were specially made for high quality but collectors didn't notice because most of the coins are not very attractive.  They didn't notice because they didn't take a good look at the junk made for circulation or compare them side by side with mint set coins.  

 

It doesn't matter how many sets dealers have on average because only a few sets survive the periodic purges.  And even these few sets are likely to get mixed with the next batch and purged. 

The sets are gone.  

Edited April 14 by cladking

[cladking]

On 4/13/2024 at 6:19 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Even if they are worth 50x FV, what are we talking about ?  We're not talking 3-figure or 4-figure coins even in high-MS grade.

Yes!  Exactly.  Most collectors hear words like "rare coins" and they're expecting coins with five figure price tags.  But the reality is even rare moderns are not going to have as high a price as comparably rare classics for many decades.  It takes time for markets to shake out.  

I'm talking about huge potential percentage increases.  It would require very very little demand to push some moderns up 100X or more just as has already happened in Russia, China, and India (et al).  All stocks aren't Berkshire Hathaway, some are penny stocks.   

[cladking]

On 4/13/2024 at 6:17 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But WHAT IS the market ?

Is it millions of kids like in the 1950's ?  Or is it tens of thousands ?

If the former, you may have a point.  If the latter....well, 1 single Ebay seller is able to satisy lots of the hardcore, high-MS collector, Registry-player crowd.

If you told me that a few dozen 1927-D Saints were available in plastic-wrapped mint or proof sets...then I would say that the current price needs to come down by a ton.  Similarly, with all this potential supply and net demand falling ove the decades, I don't see the potential for rising prices.

This market is still in its infancy and how it matures will largely be dependent on things that haven't happened yet.  I hope the speculators stay away but the reality is they'll come charging in anyway if prices start moving up quickly. People hate moderns but nobody minds a profit.  The individual who will comprise this market won't behave like the ones from the 1960's.  It's not only a different world today but a '50-D nickel is dissimilar to a '69 quarter.  They have different dynamics and characteristics.  The supply of '50-D's was highly concentrated but the much lower supply of '69 quarters is very dispersed.  Set building is not as widespread today though does seem to be making a little comeback.  

I would expect some parallels to the 1960's but even more differences.  I expect most collectors to be young and middle aged adults but with substantial numbers of young people putting together their own collections purchased online or gleaned from bank rolls.  I would expect eBay to have more sellers selling fewer coins at substantially higher prices.  But these collectors will invent their own market as they go along.  Dealers will establish wholesale markets to increase the efficiency and as catalogers begin printing more realistic guides the efficiency will increase even more.  There will somehow develop a multi-tier market for nice and really nice coins.  The current registry and slabbed markets should be unaffected at first.  After that it's anyone's guess.  

[samclemen3991]

I am a little confused at this point.  I was a coin collector in the 60's, 70's, 80's etc.  I have never had any interest in mint sets or proof sets.  My collecting interest has always focused on coins that were actually MADE to circulate.  Likewise all modern coins I have collected came straight from circulation.  

I take it I am to understand that anyone seeking a high quality coin to collect from this era MUST actually pursue specially made and marketed coins because production levels were so poor?

The discussion keeps addressing whether there is an actual population of coins that would please a collector but production amounts of coins made for circulation and coins made as actual collector pieces seem to bleed together.  There is no way to distinguish the two from each other, correct?

Finally, I tend to focus on Seated material, but have grown curious as to whether there are any actual dealers, besides individuals on E-Bay , who market modern clad coins circa 1965-say 1999?

Any information appreciated.  james

 

[World Colonial]

On 4/14/2024 at 9:18 AM, cladking said:

Yes!  Exactly.  Most collectors hear words like "rare coins" and they're expecting coins with five figure price tags.  But the reality is even rare moderns are not going to have as high a price as comparably rare classics for many decades.  It takes time for markets to shake out.  

What coins are you comparing now?

The market does not need any more time.  Relative preference between series is and has been established longer than practically most reading this thread have been alive and definitely collecting.  For any series collectively, it's entirely due to cultural perception from the coin attributes.

The US moderns which have high prices currently are due to similar reasons as older coinage.  Coins like the FDR "no S" proofs, 1969-S DDO and 1972 DDO cent, and 1982 with NMM dime.  It's more than just some narrow rarity, since the last two in my list aren't even scarce.

Other US moderns you have claimed as "rare" or "scarce" which most US collectors consider as having (somewhat) higher prices are almost entirely due to the TPG label.

[World Colonial]

On 4/14/2024 at 10:41 AM, samclemen3991 said:

Finally, I tend to focus on Seated material, but have grown curious as to whether there are any actual dealers, besides individuals on E-Bay , who market modern clad coins circa 1965-say 1999?

Any information appreciated.  james

The only one I know is Mitch Stevens who posts as "wondercoin" on the PCGS forum though not as often as previously.  I understand his son Justin is running their coin business now.  He's probably the best source for anyone looking to put together a registry type set of circulating pre-1999 US moderns.

Otherwise, eBay is good enough for most everything else.

[World Colonial]

On 4/14/2024 at 9:32 AM, cladking said:

This market is still in its infancy and how it matures will largely be dependent on things that haven't happened yet. 

I'm 59, born in 1965 the year clad was first struck.  The coins have been collected my entire life, just not as you think it should be.

The market is not in any infancy and is already mature. It just hasn't matured to your preference.  In the next few decades, 1965-1998 US moderns will mostly disappear from circulation, never mind that your usage of demographics has no demonstrated predictability on collector preferences, and never did.

No, this isn't the 1960's when you think US collectors supposedly preferred their circulating change.  In the 60's, US collectors mostly collected at FV and where they didn't, there wasn't a large supply of affordable alternatives.

Now and recently, there is the internet which makes 95% of all coinage ever made available practically on demand with over half a century of additional coinage previously not available, both circulating and NCLT.  Most of this coinage is affordable by US collecting standards while the collector base will never approach your prior claims and inferences because the non-collecting public doesn't find it that interesting.

On 4/14/2024 at 9:32 AM, cladking said:

I would expect some parallels to the 1960's but even more differences.  I expect most collectors to be young and middle aged adults but with substantial numbers of young people putting together their own collections purchased online or gleaned from bank rolls.  

If this were credible, it would have already happened.  The reason it hasn't is because you're describing 1960's style collecting at scale, not the future.  This type of collecting has virtually no correlation on the price level because it's almost never an actual preference, just as it wasn't in the 60's.

I don't know if he watches the forum anymore, but a prior poster (Tom) used to write in great detail about the collecting habits of young(er) collectors.  Your description doesn't have any similarity to what he wrote, at all.

[Sandon]

@samclemen3991--Coins used in "mint sets", especially from the 1960s and 70s, weren't different from those "actually MADE to circulate". They are frequently bag marked or otherwise abraded, struck from worn dies, and show no signs of having been given any special striking or handling. It appears that random bags were sent from the production floor to be used in "mint sets". These coins can't really be considered collector's issues; they were just packaged and sold to collectors. Many of the uncirculated coins of this era that are sold as singles, certified or uncertified, likely originated in these sets.

   One dealer who handles a lot of modern coins, both certified and uncertified, is Wayne Herndon Rare Coins, https://wayneherndon.com/index.php/about/.  Herndon's business is largely wholesale and dealer to dealer but does offer coins to collectors at coin shows in the mid-Atlantic region at reasonable prices.

    

[cladking]

On 4/14/2024 at 9:41 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I am a little confused at this point.  I was a coin collector in the 60's, 70's, 80's etc.  I have never had any interest in mint sets or proof sets.  My collecting interest has always focused on coins that were actually MADE to circulate.  Likewise all modern coins I have collected came straight from circulation.  

As the mint says "mint set coins ARE regular issue coins".  But collectors took this to mean they were shoveled off the floor of the mint and put in mint sets.  In actuality mint set coins would more accurately be thought of as early strikes made more carefully than "run of the mill coins".  They are made on older presses that are slower leaving more time for the design to strike up.  They usually use the exact same dies with more pressure burt the biggest difference is none of the above.  You can't tell by looking at a coin how much pressure was used, the nature of the press, or how fast it was made.  What you can tell is the condition of the die and mint set coins are all made with new dies.  These same dies are then used to make regular issues and some regular issues are made by new dies.  Long and short of it is that for every single practical purpose these are just like the coins in circulation.  However, most of the coins made for circulation are garbage and Gems are very scarce.  Finding Gems in mint sets is like shooting fish in a barrel: You might miss the one you're aiming at but another will float to the surface.  There's still far more water than fish though.  

On 4/14/2024 at 9:41 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I take it I am to understand that anyone seeking a high quality coin to collect from this era MUST actually pursue specially made and marketed coins because production levels were so poor?

No, quite the opposite.  Anyone pursuing modern collections is missing the boat entirely if they ignore BU rolls.  Sure you can more easily find Gems of every date but some of the coins made for circulation are just as pretty.  Just because a die isn't brand new doesn't mean it can't create a virtually perfect strike and then remain pristine.  Many coins (especially varieties) don't appear in mint sets at all  and a few are invariably scratched in the mint set.  The '80-D half dollar, for instance, almost always has shallow gouges on it caused by the mint set handling equipment.  There is no right or wrong way to build modern collections but the only way to find many Gems is in mint sets because there are no rolls saved.   '67 quarters for instance trade at well over $150 per roll.  These often come very nice but Gems are exceedingly scarce and the only others of this date are SMS which are distinct from circulation issues.   Imagine how few of these rolls must exist for the paltry demand to push the price so high!   

I'm quite confident they made Gems of every single modern coin for circulation.  But, there are quite a few I've never seen because their incidence is so low and there are so few saved.  Some coins were likely made as Gem less than .0001% of the time so you need a good sample of many hundreds of coins.  These Gems would bunch up a lot so you could look at a hundred bags of a date and see none and then the 101st bag have dozens and dozens of Gems.  I lack sufficient sample size on most of these coins to even guess.  Remember I looked at very large numbers of '69 quarters made for circulation and ever one was awful.  Long after I gave up a dealer gave me a few in change and I found a bunch of Gems in his cash register.  I value these a lot because they are Gem and obviously not mint set coins.   They may "all" be unique.  

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/14/2024 at 8:51 AM, cladking said:

Yes, I know the sets are everywhere and you could drown in them if you offer bid.  But it's not because of large mintages it's because the coins aren't in collections.  The demand is soaring but it's still tiny relative the number that survive.  

It's almost like you are describing what happened to baseball cards, circa the mid-1960's:  cards destroyed....being thrown out....treated shabbily....and then a demand surge for the next few decades

[World Colonial]

On 4/14/2024 at 6:37 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It's almost like you are describing what happened to baseball cards, circa the mid-1960's:  cards destroyed....being thrown out....treated shabbily....and then a demand surge for the next few decades

I don't know the current state of the sports card market, but it's not comparable to coins other than both are mass produced objects and subject to financial speculation.  I consider modern sports cards a mass-produced piece of cardboard, but the cultural connection is much stronger than coins.

[RWB]

Why someday moderns will be hot:

Global warming....

[cladking]

On 4/14/2024 at 1:04 PM, Sandon said:

Coins used in "mint sets", especially from the 1960s and 70s, weren't different from those "actually MADE to circulate". They are frequently bag marked or otherwise abraded, struck from worn dies, and show no signs of having been given any special striking or handling. It appears that random bags were sent from the production floor to be used in "mint sets". These coins can't really be considered collector's issues; they were just packaged and sold to collectors. Many of the uncirculated coins of this era that are sold as singles, certified or uncertified, likely originated in these sets.

No.  This is not true.  

Before 1965 mint set coins were probably selected for higher quality and plucked from the line.

After 1964 they used dedicated presses and the coins were made to higher standards and then washed and dried and otherwise specially handled.  Yes, these coins often don't look better than coins made for circulation but dies were retired from mint set production after only 40,000 strikes.  They were also set at even higher pressure than proof set coins.  The odds of mint set coins being Gem are many multiples the odds of regular coinage even if most mint set coins are bad.  

The mint described the coins as regular production coinage until 1996 when they admitted they were specially made.  Well made coins made for circulation are most unusual and coupled with the very low savings rate is why the number of Gems for almost every single mint and date of all denominations is closely correlated to their incidence in mint sets.  A few Ike dates and the '80-D half are the only exceptions I can think of but these exception exist for identifiable reasons; a larger percentage of Ike production was set aside than any other denomination.  
 

One coin in 4000 in mint sets is from a brand new die.   Only one in 100,000 of the early clad made for circulation is from a new die.  Mint set dies make about 10 new die strikes.  I imagine that regular dies make twice as many, or more, because they are at lower pressure.  These coins appear 'matte" for lack of a better word.  

[cladking]

https://www.wayneherndon.com/numisu/rolls3C.htm

Most BU rolls on the market are from mint sets.  Original BU rolls are not only hard to find but are often skunked.  Even when they are pristine the coins tend to all be ugly, poorly struck specimens from worn dies because this is the way they were made.  Sure, you can find some that are clean without great difficulty but many collectors demand attractive well made coins whether they are circulation issue or mint set.  

[cladking]

Here's a really nice coin from Herndon's site;

https://www.collectorscorner.com/Products/Item.aspx?id=65660796

Believe it or not it's the best strike I've ever seen for the date!   As a buyer I'd be a little concerned about the hazing on the reverse but many collectors are not.  

It's a very remarkable coin though they also come cleaner than this.  It's one of the few high grade coins I've seen of the date that's not  blatantly overgraded and is positively among the finest.  It looks a lot like a mint set coins but it can not be, of course.   

Edited April 15 by cladking

[zadok]

On 4/14/2024 at 11:29 PM, cladking said:

Here's a really nice coin from Herndon's site;

https://www.collectorscorner.com/Products/Item.aspx?id=65660796

Believe it or not it's the best strike I've ever seen for the date!   As a buyer I'd be a little concerned about the hazing on the reverse but many collectors are not.  

It's a very remarkable coin though they also come cleaner than this.  It's one of the few high grade coins I've seen of the date that's not  blatantly overgraded and is positively among the finest.  It looks a lot like a mint set coins but it can not be, of course.   

...not impressed, its a coin i would pass on....

[cladking]

On 4/15/2024 at 9:40 AM, zadok said:

...not impressed, its a coin i would pass on....

If it weren't so well struck I wouldn't give it a second look.  

[cladking]

Charles Morgan and Hubert Walker make an important observation in this article;

https://coinweek.com/1983-p-kennedy-half-dollar-a-collectors-guide/

Only two '83-P half dollars trade per day.  This pales in comparison to the number of something like an '09-S VDB that trade.  Tens of thousands of people have wheat cent collections and as the population of this group evolves coins must trade in the market; you can't take it with you and you can't have a complete set without the VDB.   

How many people are collecting half dollars for so few to trade hands?   There are no old collections, no BU rolls and WYSIWYG applies.  

[cladking]

It's not just collectors who hate moderns;

https://goldseek.com/article/americans-throw-away-millions-us-coins-because-american-money-junk

The American public probably "throws away" a lot more than 68 million dollars worth each year if you add in what ends up on the ground, recycled with cars,  and in public incinerators.  A lot of coins are discarded accidently or are dropped but not worth the effort of retrieving.  Most countries have some coins of real value and their vending industry flourishes but here coins have no value as the government wants it that way.  The paper currency no longer has ,much value either inasmuch as no significant purchases can be made with it.  Every year inflation chips away more at the value of coins and more coins are discarded and lost.  Every year all those old quarters are further degraded and another ~4% are lost forever.  Older coins have a higher attrition because they are thinner and lighter.  Soon enough they'll just be a memory.  When the government demonetizes and recalls them there will be only a few left to turn into refrigerators and other appliances that won't last.  But at least we'll have gotten our money's worth out of the clads; the last vestiges of quality in a throw away society.  

[cladking]

On 4/19/2024 at 7:10 PM, cladking said:

The paper currency no longer has ,much value either inasmuch as no significant purchases can be made with it.

Last year I made the monumental mistake of buying a computer with cash.  I expected it to cost under $400 but the HP I bought that doesn't even have a disc drive, monitor, or anything else  was well over $500 by the time they added everything up!  I thought it was a good time to get rid of a few bills but I sure was wrong.  They acted like they had never seen cash before and managers were crawling out of the woodwork to OK it and pass on it.  You'd think I was trying to cash a third party check on a foreign bank with all the commotion.  Believe me I've actually done this before and it took less time.  Maybe they thought I was planning to come back after closing time and steal the bank deposit.  

When I set aside a Gem 1980 quarter I knew full well that I was taking a large risk on inflation and opportunity costs.  Never did I realize the loaf of bread I didn't buy with that quarter might someday require a handful of quarters in the form of a credit card.  

Every day the world gets screwier but people don't seem to notice.  We have the worst products in history yet their producers of it get all the money.  If I sell the Gem 1980 quarter the middlemen, ebay, and paypal get the lion's share.  

 

[Henri Charriere]

Alternate viewpoint:  

The soothsayer residing within me says U.S.  Moderns will never be hot. This is not wishful or negative "the grapes were probably sour anyway" animus thinking.  It is, for some, a simple, painful, realization of reality. Not to one-up @World Colonial on this, but the worst is yet to come. The sliver is gone, classic gold showcasing the engravers art is gone -- even our currency is laughably cartoonzlike. Plastic has been overtaking metal for some time.  It is indeed unfortunate these Mexican drug cartels are oblivious to the fact it is not money, but the love of money that is at the root of all evil. I wouldn't be caught dead measuring the distance between a numeral and a rim or a leaf.  In real life, the decisions that really matter and upon which lives depend on are nothing more complicated than "O" rings, stopping at RR crossings and being minful of wind shear when landing.  Modern coins look cheap and sound cheaper when dropped. The future of the hobby lies in the past.

[powermad5000]

On 4/13/2024 at 4:28 PM, cladking said:

Nobody is going to spend $20 to grade a 30c coin no matter how tough the coin is to find.

This is listed as $1.00 in the price guide but in reality is worth about 30c. I had my reasons which I don't need to explain.

I don't think the term "hot" will be applicable in the timeframe you suggested. I say that based upon sheer mintage numbers. I think there will be a market for the highest end and Top Pop moderns (as there is now), but being I am still finding Lincoln Wheat cents in cash register change more than 75 years since they were struck, I don't think people will be scrambling for a 1986 Lincoln Memorial cent that there were more than 100x made as compared to the Lincoln Wheats I get in change dated 1945 or 1947.

Edited April 20 by powermad5000
additional comment

[cladking]

On 4/20/2024 at 6:07 AM, Henri Charriere said:

 

The soothsayer residing within me says U.S.  Moderns will never be hot.

 

 Modern coins look cheap and sound cheaper when dropped. The future of the hobby lies in the past.

I'm sometimes little more optimistic than you are. I can grow extremely cynical watching the evil prosper while the good and competent fall by the wayside.  

But then I look at the children and remember most of them will try to do what is right and our job is to merely teach them right from wrong.  They remind me that where there's life there is hope and there's nothing like a human or entire generation of humans working together to get any job done.  

I believe that right up to the time we manage to make human life impossible there is a virtual certainty that moderns will be hot.  Collectors collect and so long as there are collectors someone is going to want every coin; even if it is nothing but "clad".  

[cladking]

On 4/20/2024 at 1:49 PM, powermad5000 said:

This is listed as $1.00 in the price guide but in reality is worth about 30c. I had my reasons which I don't need to explain.

Greysheet lists this coin for 15c and even this is a little optimistic if it's really only MS-61.  Buyers willing to pay 15c want mostly MS-63 and better.  

There is certainly room for price increases if any demand ever materializes.  

[VKurtB]

On 4/20/2024 at 1:49 PM, powermad5000 said:

This is listed as $1.00 in the price guide but in reality is worth about 30c. I had my reasons which I don't need to explain.

I don't think the term "hot" will be applicable in the timeframe you suggested. I say that based upon sheer mintage numbers. I think there will be a market for the highest end and Top Pop moderns (as there is now), but being I am still finding Lincoln Wheat cents in cash register change more than 75 years since they were struck, I don't think people will be scrambling for a 1986 Lincoln Memorial cent that there were more than 100x made as compared to the Lincoln Wheats I get in change dated 1945 or 1947.

Good coin for a grading set.