Why Someday Moderns Will be Hot. 0

[VKurtB]

On 4/12/2024 at 3:48 PM, cladking said:

A VF that isn't scratched and gouged is scarce enough that for some dates they are essentially non-existent.

Those scratched and gouged are the material that newbies bring here as errors. 

[World Colonial]

On 4/12/2024 at 8:55 AM, cladking said:

I can't predict the future.   All I am saying is that if moderns ever get any attention from collectors they will find that they must compete with one another for a lot of moderns that are in extremely short supply.  I don't know if this demand will ever develop or its magnitude if it does but there is a potential to have many times as many collectors as there are coins.  

I don't disagree that much with the price claims you made above.

It's that your claims don't take into consideration how collectors or even people generally perceive coin collecting.  That's what I am always telling you.

Since all prices are set by the marginal buyer and we're talking about "inefficient" markets, it doesn't take that much incremental buying to result in disproportionate price increases.  I get that.

This still doesn't mean that enough collectors are going to completely disregard the existing alternatives in the same price range because that's the only way most of your prior price claims and inferences are going to happen.

There won't be a multiple of collectors to US moderns in the quality we're discussing because 1) The coins are almost certainly (a lot) more common than you claim or imply.  2)  It's never happened before even once for such common coins, including with 1933-1964 US coinage. 3)  Due to the minimal market size, the collector base you are inferring would send the prices into the stratosphere because that's the result of so many buyers in such a limited and illiquid market.  I used to tell South African based collectors the same thing repeatedly and that's when it was my primary collecting interest.

[World Colonial]

On 4/12/2024 at 10:15 AM, Jason Abshier said:

not sure if some collectors are worried that market is shifting with newer millennials collectors focusing on modern coinage stuff and abandoning classical coinage ? 

The price level doesn't change the actual merits of any coin as a collectible, though it is somewhat (at least) of a reflection of relative collective perception.

Most of the money going into modern coins is NCLT, not circulating coinage (including proofs).  I know you know that but just clarifying.

If you are referring to US classics, it's got the advantage of collectively being more liquid than all but NCLT but it's also very overpriced relatively for the collectible attributes in the higher TPG labels.  Classic US coinage is a broad field, so some are and some aren't and varies too, but it's not competitive vs. non-US coinage.

Biggest risks I see are longer term finance and economics (not getting into that again here) and demographic trends.  Population composition is changing, native born birth rate among the primary collector demographic is below replacement, and forecasted population increases are by groups who have either no cultural tradition of collecting or a much weaker one.  Where they have a propensity to collect, it's going to be in (far) lower proportion for most US coinage, especially post-1933 circulating coinage which has been the primary focus of US collecting over the life of everyone reading this thread.

Demographics alone might not have a noticeable impact for the duration of my collecting due to my age, but it's likely to for those who are much younger.

[Sandon]

On 4/12/2024 at 4:48 PM, cladking said:

Try to find a nice attractive 1968 dime in any condition at all.  Try to find any 1969 dime and you might be in for a surprise.  Not only did the Gems not survive but not many of any survived. 

   The mint reportedly sold 2,105,128 uncirculated coin sets in 1968 and 1,817,192 such sets in 1969, each containing an uncirculated Philadelphia dime. Even if collectors hadn't saved a single coin issued for circulation and assuming some attrition from "mint set" coins that were spent after people removed the half dollar for its silver, these sets are still in ample supply.  They are easily found at coin shows from dealers who are willing to take them and other sources and list $6 to $8 in this month's Coin World.  It's just not reasonable to suggest that these coins in their usual grades will ever be "rare" in any practical sense of that word.

[cladking]

On 4/12/2024 at 8:01 PM, Sandon said:

   The mint reportedly sold 2,105,128 uncirculated coin sets in 1968 and 1,817,192 such sets in 1969, each containing an uncirculated Philadelphia dime. Even if collectors hadn't saved a single coin issued for circulation and assuming some attrition from "mint set" coins that were spent after people removed the half dollar for its silver, these sets are still in ample supply.  They are easily found at coin shows from dealers who are willing to take them and other sources and list $6 to $8 in this month's Coin World.  It's just not reasonable to suggest that these coins in their usual grades will ever be "rare" in any practical sense of that word.

I understand your point but 75% of these sets are gone now and the coins from them scattered to the winds.   

Virtually 100% of the dimes still in the sets are tarnished now and only 60% can be restored.   Of these 60% that can be restored only about half are attractive.   This leaves 150,000 nice attractive '68 dimes which swamps the tiny existing demand.  But how many of the 1/2 million mint sets are actually available on the market?  My guess is even if the price soared fewer than 30,000 could get to the market annually.  With no price increase about 20,000 a year will come to market.  These sets are widely distributed with many owners being outside the mainstream hobby and others who wouldn't even know the price increased for years.  Any long term holder isn't going to sell his own tarnished sets for a mere doubling or tripling of price.  These sets will dribble into the market for years but they might not always swamp the demand.  

In the old days it was easy to find batches of 100, 1000  or even more '68 mint sets.  Today a big bunch is a half dozen.  I'd bet most wholesalers don't keep more than a couple hundred in stock.  There just isn't much demand.  

This isn't a date where you can find original rolls and I've seen original rolls.  I used to poke through brand new 1968 dime rolls from the bank and the coins are almost universally garbage.  The long and short of it is that the supply is very finite and no more than 20 or 30,000 can come to market annually.  As these sets are destroyed fewer and fewer exist and the rate will drop.  

These numbers are simply paltry compared to potential demand.  30,000 sets translates to several thousand nice coins per year to supply the market.  The '69 quarter is far tougher because fewer sets survive and only 10% of these were attractive back when all the sets were still pristine.  The '68 cent almost invariably has carbon spots and these can't be removed.  Fortunately a few sets were apparently processed differently so small batches of sets have cents with removable tarnish that can be found.

The clock is ticking on all these coins because they are being consumed apace both by a hobby that doesn't care and by tarnish.  The longer the tarnish remains the more likely it can't be removed.  Attrition eats them up too because floods and fires just keep happening.  Meanwhile the collecting base has been growing since 1980 and became turbo-charged in 1999.  Covid pushed demand higher yet.  Supply no longer swamps demand which is why moderns like '82 quarters are trading at many multiples of greysheet.  

Edited April 13 by cladking

[cladking]

On 4/12/2024 at 8:01 PM, Sandon said:

They are easily found at coin shows from dealers who are willing to take them and other sources and list $6 to $8 in this month's Coin World.  It's just not reasonable to suggest that these coins in their usual grades will ever be "rare" in any practical sense of that word.

The modern coin market in 1964 consumed 2,000,000 nice choice '50-D nickels and pushed their price over $300 in today's money.   We now have 50% higher population, more collectors, and instead of a couple million nice '50-D's these are several thousands nice attractive '68 dimes.  The sole difference is most collectors in 1964 wanted a '50-D but very few collectors today want a '68 dime.  If the demand for the '68 dime were proportional to the nickel it would sell for $10 in nice attractive VG.   Of course there are very few nice attractive coins in any grade because of attrition and degradation.  

[VKurtB]

On 4/12/2024 at 9:28 PM, cladking said:

The modern coin market in 1964 consumed 2,000,000 nice choice '50-D nickels and pushed their price over $300 in today's money.   We now have 50% higher population, more collectors, and instead of a couple million nice '50-D's these are several thousands nice attractive '68 dimes.  The sole difference is most collectors in 1964 wanted a '50-D but very few collectors today want a '68 dime.  If the demand for the '68 dime were proportional to the nickel it would sell for $10 in nice attractive VG.   Of course there are very few nice attractive coins in any grade because of attrition and degradation.  

Let me “ax” you a serious question. Do you ever just stack up a handful of dimes or quarters and look for nice red edges? I do, and I bet a lot of people do. Do you ever see dates on them that are eye-opening due to their earliness?I do. Not dozens per day or anything. I don’t use cash that much anymore. But neither is the experience particularly rare. Those coins are coming into commerce from SOMEWHERE. My working theory is that occasionally “grandpa’s” solid rolls get recycled into the banking system when no one (dealer) will pay a premium for rolled coins even if BU. If the heirs have a connection to a coin club, they could get well over face, but too few use coin clubs to liquidate grandpa’s stuff. Coin clubs are NOT uniformly distributed in this country. There are coin club deserts and coin club lush areas. Both my previous and present areas are target rich environments regarding coin clubs. Unfortunately, Alabama doesn’t have the public auction mania that Pennsylvania does. 

[cladking]

On 4/12/2024 at 10:24 PM, VKurtB said:

Do you ever just stack up a handful of dimes or quarters and look for nice red edges?

I get several rolls of quarters from the bank 10 or 12 times a year and check all my change.   I haven't seen an AU 1978 or earlier eagle reverse quarter in seven or eight years.  During this time I've seen only a few nice XF's.  I haven't seen a nice XF 1969 quarter since the mid-'90's.   I've seen only a few '69 quarters in the last 10 years and they were all culls of low grade junk except for a nice F.  

I've checked ~2500 quarters a year since 1965.   

The coins grade out on a nice tight bell curve and they always have.  But since about 1999 it is a little attenuated on the high end because of collectors and since 2008 it is very attenuated on the low end because the FED is apparently removing heavily worn coin.  95% of the quarters in circulation are all scratched up and this started around 2000.   I don't know who's doing it.  Nearly 40% of the early clads are now culls.  This is probably "natural" as these wear like iron and last so long in circulation they are exposed to damage and harsh chemicals.  More than half of the early clads are gone altogether and most were gone before the FED started removing heavily worn coin.  I doubt if more than a quarter billion quarters have been retired.   Dimes are much worse.  Being smaller they have a much higher attrition.  

The days of assembling nice VF/ XF collections from pocket change are long gone.  As the coins suffer further degradation and more higher end coins are removed from circulation all dates will soon enough be gone except for culls and scratched up VG's.   

Get a roll of quarters from the bank.  Almost every roll is a perfect sample of what exists because people are ignoring these coins.  Only 12 eagle reverse quarters will be in each roll and these will mostly all be typical condition of common dates.  No tough dates and certainly no tough grades of tough dates.  I'm guessing you haven't done this recently.  

[samclemen3991]

I have been thinking about your claim that modern coins will become hot collectibles some day @cladking.

I think that this will only happen if there is some sort of catalyst.  I am in the janitorial supply/cleaning service business.  In Dec. 2019 a supplier of mine, Nuance Solution, had a glut of disinfectant spray.  I was ordering floor chemicals but my sales person offered me as much as I wanted at a very cheap price.  In the end, he pointed out the stuff has a shelf life of a million years and I would recoup the money plus profit over a few years.  Remember March 2020?  Over night my cleaning service was dead in the water but covid  had another side effect.  The price of disinfectant doubled, doubled, then doubled again.  All before May.  the same company was sending me price lists with huge mark ups and instituting strict volume controls.  I just can't guess what that catalyst would be.  I know some bemoan the chance of a cashless society but who knows how things will bend in the future?  James

[VKurtB]

On 4/13/2024 at 10:04 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I have been thinking about your claim that modern coins will become hot collectibles some day @cladking.

I think that this will only happen if there is some sort of catalyst.  I am in the janitorial supply/cleaning service business.  In Dec. 2019 a supplier of mine, Nuance Solution, had a glut of disinfectant spray.  I was ordering floor chemicals but my sales person offered me as much as I wanted at a very cheap price.  In the end, he pointed out the stuff has a shelf life of a million years and I would recoup the money plus profit over a few years.  Remember March 2020?  Over night my cleaning service was dead in the water but covid  had another side effect.  The price of disinfectant doubled, doubled, then doubled again.  All before May.  the same company was sending me price lists with huge mark ups and instituting strict volume controls.  I just can't guess what that catalyst would be.  I know some bemoan the chance of a cashless society but who knows how things will bend in the future?  James

I fear, genuinely FEAR a second American Civil War. That’d do it. 

[Sandon]

On 4/12/2024 at 10:20 PM, cladking said:

75% of these [1968 and 1969 "mint"] sets are gone now and the coins from them scattered to the winds.   

      What is the factual basis of this statement?  I assume that it is nothing more than a guess.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/12/2024 at 9:01 PM, Sandon said:

It's just not reasonable to suggest that these coins in their usual grades will ever be "rare" in any practical sense of that word.

Then the question becomes:  does demand surge for some reason such that the price RISES which is what we normally associate with a "rare" coin ? 

For that to happen, the supply must be short relative to demand.  As some of you have said here, the MCMVII High Relief is not "rare" but on price it does trade as a rare coin even at the AU and low-60's MS levels.  That is in part from demand from people who are absolutely NOT coin collectors (they might not own any other coin).

The question then becomes:  if out of those surviving mint/proof sets ONLY (nothing from regular mintage), how many are collectors seeking them ?  It's not the 1950's or 1960's when most kids were collectors.  Add in sales by existing holders (mint/proof sets, regular mintage collectors over the decades, etc.) and the question is how many NEW collectors meet that supply and if not, how big is the demographic imbalance ?

That's how I see it, if not from a veteran or expert collector perspective, but a simple supply-demand analysis. 

Edited April 13 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/13/2024 at 12:15 PM, Sandon said:

What is the factual basis of this statement?  I assume that it is nothing more than a guess.  

Even if true, that supply could swamp existing demand.

[cladking]

On 4/13/2024 at 10:04 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I have been thinking about your claim that modern coins will become hot collectibles some day @cladking.

I think that this will only happen if there is some sort of catalyst.  I am in the janitorial supply/cleaning service business.  In Dec. 2019 a supplier of mine, Nuance Solution, had a glut of disinfectant spray.  I was ordering floor chemicals but my sales person offered me as much as I wanted at a very cheap price.  In the end, he pointed out the stuff has a shelf life of a million years and I would recoup the money plus profit over a few years.  Remember March 2020?  Over night my cleaning service was dead in the water but covid  had another side effect.  The price of disinfectant doubled, doubled, then doubled again.  All before May.  the same company was sending me price lists with huge mark ups and instituting strict volume controls.  I just can't guess what that catalyst would be.  I know some bemoan the chance of a cashless society but who knows how things will bend in the future?  James

All sorts of catalysts are possible, certain, from civil war, to plague, to good times.  Coin collecting is partly nostalgia and time don't fly it leaps and bounds.  People will wake up one day and realize all those old eagle reverse quarters are gone. They'll suddenly be transported from the past to the present all in one giant leap.  This is about the latest it can happen but I believe it will happen sooner as I'll explain.  This day is not so far in the future because there are hundreds of thousands of the clad quarter folders out there and each one requires a lot of coins to fill.  While this draw down isn't large compared to mintages it is significant compared to what survives and is the largest cause of the draw down in higher grades; even larger than further degradation and attrition.  The older coins in circulation will continue to wear out, be lost, and become culls.  New coins will be made to replace them.  Already 70% of circulating quarter are not eagle reverse coins.  In just a couple more years it will approach 3 out 4 at which time the old quarters will stand out quite a lot in a handful of quarters that just through coincidence be almost all later dates. It is just such differences that spark curiosity and a desire to collect the "rare" old quarters. 

The biggest catalysts are probably already in place.  This is the demand has already exceeded the supply in several of the scarcest coins such as the '82-P that Greysheets at $6 and goes for $100 on eBay.  Success breeds success in the hobby.  When the price guides eventually fix the guides to reflect the true value people think the price went up.  It doesn't really but the guides catch up and people think the coins are on fire.   Speculators jump in.  No, I don't mean "speculator" as a dirty word here rather in the sense that many collectors have at least some desire to make a profit even if that's only to further their own collections.  These things can snowball and this goes a thousand times over in a market that is expanding quickly.  Along with covid the American public got the coin bug.  Of course there's no certainty that this is going to focus on or even include moderns but it's a very safe bet the growing demand for circulating moderns is going to continue or possibly even increase.  

These markets are stymied by price guides that are not reflective of actual values so when they do catch up the markets will strengthen even if there were no new demand.  

[cladking]

On 4/13/2024 at 11:15 AM, Sandon said:

  What is the factual basis of this statement?  I assume that it is nothing more than a guess.  

No, it is no guess.  It is an estimate based on a great deal of evidence, experience, sampling, and data over the last 50 years.  My estimates have a tendency to be very conservative.  

Every single time a mint set comes on the market it has a very very high likelihood of being destroyed.  In the past the sets were pristine so if there were demand (there wasn't) the condition of the set would not squelch the demand.  But today virtually all sets have at least a little problem and most sets are atrocious.  This increases both the odds of destruction but the odds the coins will enter circulation.  Nobody has 500 1969 mint sets and if they did nobody is going to go to all the work to restore the dimes and sell them for 20C wholesale.  

Sure some coins from destroyed mint sets survive in pristine or restorable condition and this number is exceedingly difficult to estimate.  But it certainly not a large percentage and I'd GUESS it's well under 40%.  Everybody knows these coins were made in the billions and are uncollectible.  It has been common wisdom for 60 years. It is shouted from the rooftops and ingrained in collectors.  It is not true and never was.  The fact is coins can't save themselves and people didn't save them.  Very few nice choice and gemmy coins survive and they still aren't being saved.  

[World Colonial]

On 4/13/2024 at 12:17 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Then the question becomes:  does demand surge for some reason such that the price RISES which is what we normally associate with a "rare" coin ? 

For that to happen, the supply must be short relative to demand.  As some of you have said here, the MCMVII High Relief is not "rare" but on price it does trade as a rare coin even at the AU and low-60's MS levels.  That is in part from demand from people who are absolutely NOT coin collectors (they might not own any other coin).

The question then becomes:  if out of those surviving mint/proof sets ONLY (nothing from regular mintage), how many are collectors seeking them ?  It's not the 1950's or 1960's when most kids were collectors.  Add in sales by existing holders (mint/proof sets, regular mintage collectors over the decades, etc.) and the question is how many NEW collectors meet that supply and if not, how big is the demographic imbalance ?

That's how I see it, if not from a veteran or expert collector perspective, but a simple supply-demand analysis. 

Collectors don't collect in a vacuum.  The idea that collectors will suddenly find a series so interesting to leave all others which compete with it in the dust price wise isn't plausible.  We're not talking about crypto or some share of stock.  It's a collectible.

This isn't just true of US moderns, but practically all coins.  It happens with the most expensive highest preferred coinage because the few buyers are more prone to ignore the prices of other coins.  Also for specific dates or segments for the same reason.

Generally though, if the price increases by a "meaningful" multiple, it will be priced to compete with coinage with a much higher collector preference where it isn't competitive because preferences aren't an accident.

[World Colonial]

On 4/13/2024 at 11:53 AM, VKurtB said:

I fear, genuinely FEAR a second American Civil War. That’d do it. 

No, that would end US coin collecting as we know it.

[World Colonial]

On 4/13/2024 at 12:20 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Even if true, that supply could swamp existing demand.

Obviously

[World Colonial]

On 4/13/2024 at 1:04 PM, cladking said:

Nobody has 500 1969 mint sets and if they did nobody is going to go to all the work to restore the dimes and sell them for 20C wholesale.  

1969 UNCIRCULATED Genuine U.S. MINT SET ISSUED BY U.S. MINT | eBay

572 sold so far by this seller with more than 10 still available.

1969 U.S. MINT SET. ISSUED BY US MINT. Envelope Sealed / Unopened | eBay

Another 170 sold by the same seller, also with more than 10 still available.

No, I don't know what these sets look like.  It's good enough for whoever bought it.

[cladking]

On 4/13/2024 at 2:48 PM, World Colonial said:

1969 UNCIRCULATED Genuine U.S. MINT SET ISSUED BY U.S. MINT | eBay

572 sold so far by this seller with more than 10 still available.

1969 U.S. MINT SET. ISSUED BY US MINT. Envelope Sealed / Unopened | eBay

Another 170 sold by the same seller, also with more than 10 still available.

No, I don't know what these sets look like.  It's good enough for whoever bought it.

It's a drop in the bucket for a mass market.  These 742 sets won't all be cut up and those that aren't will continue to corrode.  Some owner will spend the coins in disgust.  Many of the dimes will be restored and most probably used in collections.  Only about 65% of the restored coins will be nice chBU and only 15% will be "gemmy".  This is another 75 or 100 coins in a market that represent 335 million people.  

These sets wouldn't exist at all available for sale if there were more demand. Even though millions of people might collect these coins the reality is the number is in the thousands because everyone knows they are common and just debased garbage.  Most are low quality which hardly encourages collecting.  

Most of the sets that retail or sell on eBay aren't too bad.  They are not dark from tarnish but they will all have hazing and on almost every single coin.  

There are not millions of these sets any longer and they are not pristine. They are abundant only because there is little demand.  

[cladking]

On 4/13/2024 at 2:32 PM, World Colonial said:

Collectors don't collect in a vacuum.  The idea that collectors will suddenly find a series so interesting to leave all others which compete with it in the dust price wise isn't plausible.  We're not talking about crypto or some share of stock.  It's a collectible.

A nice attractive gemmy set of eagle reverse clad quarters can be assembled in nice choice attractive condition for a few hundred dollars.  Theoretically it can be done far cheaper because Greysheet says the coins wholesale at less than $100.   You won't  find a seller with the coins willing to sell at wholesale because it would involve looking through mint sets and BU rolls and picking out superior coins and then selling the quarters for 30c wholesale.  It won't happen.  Every year it gets harder to find the coins and every year there are fewer of them.  Nobody is going to spend $20 to grade a 30c coin no matter how tough the coin is to find.

Catalog prices are based on junk.  Nice attractive coins are in some demand.  

You can't assemble a nice gemmy BU bust half dollar set for a $100 or a few hundred.  Most collectors are priced out of such coins.  Meanwhile tough coins that comprise really attractive collections are going begging because the common wisdom is that the coins are as common as grains of sand on the beach.  There's absolutely no reason that the difficulty of finding attractive circulating moderns could become widely known.  This can happen virtually over night. All it takes is to look and see what nice coins like MS-64 '82 quarters are really selling for on eBay. The common wisdom has been wrong all along and there are enough people who know that it's being shown for what it is.  

Modern circulating coins have everything going for them.  They are so inexpensive that complete sets can be assembled at face value and even high grade coins often sell  very cheaply.  As long as you stay away from pop tops they are inexpensive and safe from loss.  If you don't mind the competition with registry set collectors there are pop tops there have far more opportunity for price increases because all of a coins attributes are not measured by our current grading system. There are PL's and strikes from brand new dies that are unattributed.  There are even strikes that are virtually perfect from brand new dies.  Then there are underappreciated varieties and errors many of which are extremely scarce whether they appear in mint sets or not and can even be found in circulation still.  Since all of these coins still circulate they are each little calling cards to direct attention at your collection.  And since they circulate freely (for the main part) there are numerous lessons in metallurgy, statistics, and other fields that can be gleaned from studying them.  The circulated coins provide a snapshot of the minting characteristics of the various dates and mints.  Moderns have everything to offer that every other series has to offer and more.  

They will be collected someday.  They are being collected now limitedly but there's no reason to presume there is any sort of natural limitation imposed on them.  All limitations are in the minds of the observers.  

[World Colonial]

On 4/13/2024 at 4:58 PM, cladking said:

It's a drop in the bucket for a mass market. 

You can interpret my reply as you wish, even telling me the coins don’t actually exist if that's what you want to do

I’m not interested in getting into another pointless debate with you to experience Ground Hog Day, so don’t even start that.  It’s not even entertaining.

So, carry on financially promoting this coinage.

[cladking]

On 4/13/2024 at 4:35 PM, World Colonial said:

So, carry on financially promoting this coinage.

I'm selling now.  It's too late to have much affect on most of my coins.  

Yes, I do still have a few safety deposit boxes full of gemmy and Gem coins but I've sold many of these as well.  

[Sandon]

   What the OP is saying is largely supposition. He claims he has "evidence" but hasn't presented any that I've seen. I can provide a scenario that is just as likely and is based upon my own observations.

   Although many "mint sets" of this era have undoubtedly been cut up for singles or the silver in the half dollars, many of the coins they contained were sold separately and kept in coin albums or 2x2 holders, where most of them likely still reside. (I doubt that many dealers felt it necessary to spend the remaining 83 cents in face value.)  Many other sets are still intact and in the possession of their original owners or their descendants. (I still have 1968 and 1969 sets that I received as gifts in 1972 or '73, and I think I have at least one duplicate 1968 set that I received as a coin club door prize years later.) Their sheer abundance and resulting low market values don't give much motivation to these owners to sell them, and those sets and singles that are sold or are otherwise held in dealer inventory provide a sufficient supply to satisfy collector demand at current prices. 

   As I previously stated, the condition of the surviving coins and sets is a different issue, but "generic" uncirculated pieces are unlikely in my opinion to be valuable in the foreseeable future. Of course, if people who don't know better can be persuaded that they are scarce or rare and to pay high prices for them, as is the case with common date Morgan and Peace dollars, anything is possible. 

[World Colonial]

On 4/13/2024 at 6:12 PM, Sandon said:

 I can provide a scenario that is just as likely and is based upon my own observations.

I agree with your general theme.

There isn't any basis to claim that this segment consisting of hundreds of coins is going to experience a future leap in collector preference (not popularity).  

The price estimates provided near the top of this thread aren't financially meaningful either and the market will never be large enough where more than a very low number or proportion of the collector base will make it up by volume.

On 4/13/2024 at 6:12 PM, Sandon said:

 Of course, if people who don't know better can be persuaded that they are scarce or rare and to pay high prices for them, as is the case with common date Morgan and Peace dollars, anything is possible. 

Totally different kind of buyer.  Given how common many Morgan and Peace dollars are, my assumption is that most of the (most) common dates are owned for financial reasons.  There are very unlikely enough collectors buying it for sets or as type coins.  eBay has tons of it.  This isn't ever going to happen with a base metal coin in volume because "investors" don't buy this type of coin.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/13/2024 at 4:58 PM, cladking said:

It's a drop in the bucket for a mass market. 

But WHAT IS the market ?

Is it millions of kids like in the 1950's ?  Or is it tens of thousands ?

If the former, you may have a point.  If the latter....well, 1 single Ebay seller is able to satisy lots of the hardcore, high-MS collector, Registry-player crowd.

If you told me that a few dozen 1927-D Saints were available in plastic-wrapped mint or proof sets...then I would say that the current price needs to come down by a ton.  Similarly, with all this potential supply and net demand falling ove the decades, I don't see the potential for rising prices.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/13/2024 at 6:12 PM, Sandon said:

Of course, if people who don't know better can be persuaded that they are scarce or rare and to pay high prices for them, as is the case with common date Morgan and Peace dollars, anything is possible. 

Even if they are worth 50x FV, what are we talking about ?  We're not talking 3-figure or 4-figure coins even in high-MS grade.

[World Colonial]

On 4/13/2024 at 7:17 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But WHAT IS the market ?

It's financially immaterial and no reason to believe this will ever change. 

The coin market isn't about to grow exponentially and the collector preference for this coinage isn't about to increase sufficiently to result in another outcome.

[World Colonial]

On 4/13/2024 at 7:19 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Even if they are worth 50x FV, what are we talking about ?  We're not talking 3-figure or 4-figure coins even in high-MS grade.

Most of these coins currently sell for somewhat above or below the cost of grading in MS-66.

My prediction remains the same as before.  Decades from now, the majority of post 1933 US coinage should sell for nominal premiums to silver spot or near or below the cost of grading in grades up to MS-66.

[cladking]

On 4/13/2024 at 5:12 PM, Sandon said:

Of course, if people who don't know better can be persuaded that they are scarce or rare and to pay high prices for them, as is the case with common date Morgan and Peace dollars, anything is possible. 

You do realize that Morgans wholesale for $50 but if a probably a scarce 1968 gemmy cent sold for so much it would have to increase 500 fold? 

On 4/13/2024 at 5:12 PM, Sandon said:

   What the OP is saying is largely supposition. He claims he has "evidence" but hasn't presented any that I've seen.

I can't produce the destroyed packaging nor do I have film of the sets being consumed in fires of bulldozed after floods.  All I can do is to repeat what dealers tell me and what I have seen for more than half a century.  When sets come onto the market there are no buyers so the sets are destroyed.  

You say they are cut up for singles which is certainly true but is a relatively minor cause of the drawdown.  Sure, it happens a lot in the year of issue and shortly thereafter but in short order everyone has updated their collections and the price plummets as the demand drops.  It happens every year for 60 years like clockwork. New sets are high priced for a few years and then they fall through the floor often selling for less than face value. If it were true that these sets are getting cherry picked for singles then the average quality of sets would drop year after years but this simply hasn't happened.  When sets come into the coin shops they are just as nice, just as random and when they were issued (for the main part).  If a variety appears in one set in 180 and you find 180 of these sets then odds are still pretty good there will be one of these.  If Gems account for 2% of production for a specific coin then just about 2% of the sets you find will have a Gem. 

This happens because most sets are destroyed and what's left in the wild is random.  

Sets aren't destroyed one at a time, they are are destroyed wholesale and as part of a process caused by a lack of demand. Many times I have walked into a coin shop and seen employees cutting up sets for the cash register or walked out with mint set coins in change from his cash register.  I always ask if the sets have been checked for Gems and varieties and usually the answer is no.  

 

Yes, I know the sets are everywhere and you could drown in them if you offer bid.  But it's not because of large mintages it's because the coins aren't in collections.  The demand is soaring but it's still tiny relative the number that survive.