What is a truly rare coin? How is a coin's rarity determined? 1 1

[Mike Meenderink]

The scale runs from 1.0 to 10.0. The coin issues that have the highest possible rarity, i.e. only one surviving specimen known to exist, are assigned the rarity of 10.0, expressed as "CFR 10.0." Any coin for which the estimated number of survivors exceeds one million specimens is assigned the rarity of 1.0, expressed as "CFR 1.0." R-1 low rarity common availability R-10 less than 2 known. See the below copper pattern Morgan which only 12-15 are known to exist. The rarity rating for this coin is Low R-7. Meaning it is on the low side of R-7 rarity. IMO anything with a rating of R-4 or above qualifies as a truly rare coin.

 

1879 50C Morgan Half Dollar, Judd-1600, Pollock-1795, Low R.7, PR63 Red Cameo NGC.

Design. The obverse is reminiscent of the standard Morgan dollar, but the border arrangement of stars and E PLURIBUS UNUM differs. The reverse features a large perched eagle with unfurled wings. The eagle clutches three large arrows and an olive branch. IN GOD WE TRUST is widely spread around the eagle. Struck in copper with a reeded edge.

Edited March 19 by Mike Meenderink

[RWB]

What is a truly rare coin? How is a coin's rarity determined?

An anonymous person sitting at a nondescript desk in an anonymous rented building at an unnamed Third World Party Grading Service orders hamburger through an anonymous food delivery service (“Bacteria Hubb”). When the ‘burger arrives, the anonymous person opens the sandwich and loudly declares “Wow! Now that’s a rare specimen!”

Another anonymous person sitting at a nondescript desk in an anonymous rented building at an unnamed Third World Party Grading Service hears the remark, thinks it refers to a coin and prints a little paper label saying “Rare. Specimen.”

Yet another anonymous person sitting at a nondescript desk in an anonymous rented building at an unnamed Third World Party Grading Service sees the label come out of the printer and immediately writes a Press Release extolling the great rarity and value of the thusly labeled coin.

That is how it happens today. It is the fault of a sucked-dry dead milk cow and an inanimate label printer.

Edited March 19 by RWB

[zadok]

...one of many, many rarity scales put forth...this one not universally recognized nor utilized...there is no standard to determine true rarity, in many instances there r rarity scales (R) for virtually every different denomination or series of coins n thats just for US coinage...totally futile effort....

[Henri Charriere]

On 3/19/2024 at 1:08 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

1879 50C Morgan Half Dollar, Judd-1600, Pollock-1795, Low R.7, PR63 Red Cameo NGC.

Design.  ".... Struck in copper with a reeded edge."

While I can appreciate your noble intent, had this been mine I must confess, I would have thrown this on a thread soliciting validation from fellow members that I had just found this lovely Morgan with lovely copper toning, denticles intact, believe it to be genuine, but just wanted a second opinion... then sat back in my chair to await the anticipated backwash.

"C'mon Quintus! Silver dollars are just that. Silver, duh!

"An insult to the House of Morgan! I am in league with those who don't want this out there! No, you may not have it! I absolutely forbid its display!

"You are outright rejecting 150 years of knowledge and experience on this forum. You feel you know better? Send it in and post the result when you get it. Sheesh! 

To the Newbies: Don't say, [It will] "Never happen!" It did and it does. Some of you can recall the time a mischievous member (long gone) had members responding to his talking Rooster -- with one demanding it retract a comment it had made!!!

Ah Mike, ... missed opportunity... 🤣

[Mike Meenderink]

@Henri Charriere I have in the past thought about devising a subversive critical challenge such as your suggestion above with other unknown or less known numismatic specimens. I however must contend with Sandon and RWB's overlord omnipresence which in my opinion would immediately spoil my fun. Damn those great numismatists. Damn them all.

Edited March 19 by Mike Meenderink

[Sandon]

   Unfortunately, the term "rare coin" has been used to refer to a variety of coins ranging from pieces such as 1913 Liberty nickels and 1894-S dimes, of which very few actually exist, to 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cents and 1916-D "Mercury" dimes, of which tens of thousands exist, and even to any coin that one could no longer expect to find in circulation, such as any Morgan or Peace dollar.  Almost any coin made for circulation to which a third-party grading service has awarded a high enough grade is also now referred to as "rare", even if it is a modern coin with a mintage of billions.  The pricing of coins is based on demand, as well as supply, and a coin of which only a few dozen exist but for which there are relatively few customers, such as the pattern coin described in the initial post, may sell for far less than a coin in equivalent grade of which thousands exist but is much more popular.   The definition of "truly rare" is relative and not subject to objective determination.  

   I've never heard of a "CFR" scale before, but the scale usually used for earlier U.S. coins by date or die variety runs from R1 (more than 1,250) to R8 (2-3 known) or R9 (unique) and was developed by Dr. William Sheldon of early large cent reference and Sheldon Grading Scale fame but who was posthumously exposed as a coin thief.  Under this scale, most "rare" coins, such as the aforementioned 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cents and 1916-D dimes, would be classified as R1 along with coins existing by the millions. A "Rarity 2" would have an estimated population of only 501-1250 and to most collectors of popular series by date and mint would be considered very rare indeed.

   Q. David Bowers proposed a "Universal Rarity Scale" in which an issue or variety that is "URS-1" is unique, "URS-2" means 2 known, "URS-3" means 3 or 4 known, and the estimated population doubles for every next number, so that, for example, "URS-20" means an estimated population of 250,001 to 500,000.  This scale has been adopted by the authors of the Cherrypickers' Guide and may be more practical for more popularly collected issues and varieties.

   Just how many coins of a particular issue or variety actually exist is generally unknowable. Only one 1873-CC "No Arrows" Liberty Seated dime is publicly known to exist, with no others reported, but it is always possible, no matter how unlikely, that one or more others will be found in some forgotten collection or accumulation.  

   

[zadok]

On 3/19/2024 at 6:11 PM, Sandon said:

   Unfortunately, the term "rare coin" has been used to refer to a variety of coins ranging from pieces such as 1913 Liberty nickels and 1894-S dimes, of which very few actually exist, to 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cents and 1916-D "Mercury" dimes, of which tens of thousands exist, and even to any coin that one could no longer expect to find in circulation, such as any Morgan or Peace dollar.  Almost any coin made for circulation to which a third-party grading service has awarded a high enough grade is also now referred to as "rare", even if it is a modern coin with a mintage of billions.  The pricing of coins is based on demand, as well as supply, and a coin of which only a few dozen exist but for which there are relatively few customers, such as the pattern coin described in the initial post, may sell for far less than a coin in equivalent grade of which thousands exist but is much more popular.   The definition of "truly rare" is relative and not subject to objective determination.  

   I've never heard of a "CFR" scale before, but the scale usually used for earlier U.S. coins by date or die variety runs from R1 (more than 1,250) to R8 (2-3 known) or R9 (unique) and was developed by Dr. William Sheldon of early large cent reference and Sheldon Grading Scale fame but who was posthumously exposed as a coin thief.  Under this scale, most "rare" coins, such as the aforementioned 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cents and 1916-D dimes, would be classified as R1 along with coins existing by the millions. A "Rarity 2" would have an estimated population of only 501-1250 and to most collectors of popular series by date and mint would be considered very rare indeed.

   Q. David Bowers proposed a "Universal Rarity Scale" in which an issue or variety that is "URS-1" is unique, "URS-2" means 2 known, "URS-3" means 3 or 4 known, and the estimated population doubles for every next number, so that, for example, "URS-20" means an estimated population of 250,001 to 500,000.  This scale has been adopted by the authors of the Cherrypickers' Guide and may be more practical for more popularly collected issues and varieties.

   Just how many coins of a particular issue or variety actually exist is generally unknowable. Only one 1873-CC "No Arrows" Liberty Seated dime is publicly known to exist, with no others reported, but it is always possible, no matter how unlikely, that one or more others will be found in some forgotten collection or accumulation.  

   

...what he said....

[Henri Charriere]

On 3/19/2024 at 6:11 PM, Sandon said:

.... The definition of "truly rare" is relative and not subject to objective determination.... 

I have revisited this topic (since my last post earlier today) wondering whether "truly rare" is any more, or less, subjective than "grading." I believe the above excerpt captures the essence of the "je ne sais quoi"-like quality of defining the otherwise indefinable, "truly rare." Another masterful stroke of articulated jargoning!  There are some posts that ought to be preserved, in perpetuity. This is one of them.

[RWB]

"Rarity Scales" in current use are a mixture of reported mintage and opinion. In only a few instances can we look to conformable production reports. 1894-S dimes or 1895 dollars, for example. Many others are assumptions and guesses such as 1913 Liberty nickels, and 1885 Trade dollars.

[Henri Charriere]

The 1913 Liberty Head nickel?  

That's well over a hun'red years ago.  I thought the entire matter was well-settled. All have their own attributes. ALL ARE DESIGNATED SPECIMENS.

What are some of the assumptions and guesses regarding these V-nickels? Surely, they are "truly rare," no?