CACG & CAC: Price And Grading Trends 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

Seems like the price for coins graded by CACG are at a big premium to other coins maybe because there's scarcity and lots of demand...while with the traditional CAC sticker, there's a shortage going forward since they'll eventually stop.  Personally, I'd be more willing to pay up for a sticker than the grading service because I am not sure they'll turn the PCGS-NGC duopoly into a triopoly.

This article had some good stuff:

https://www.coinagemag.com/cac-coins-bring-premiums-in-november-2023/

[VKurtB]

It almost HAS TO, eventually, become a triopoly because they have literally announced that a CACG holder is the exact equivalent of a PCGS or NGC holder PLUS a CAC sticker. All CACG does is "cut out the middle men".

Edited December 17, 2023 by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/16/2023 at 6:18 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

This article had some good stuff:

https://www.coinagemag.com/cac-coins-bring-premiums-in-november-2023/

It certainly does but it's way out of my league. Maybe in my next life.  🤣

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 12/16/2023 at 6:18 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Seems like the price for coins graded by CACG are at a big premium to other coins maybe because there's scarcity and lots of demand...while with the traditional CAC sticker, there's a shortage going forward since they'll eventually stop.  Personally, I'd be more willing to pay up for a sticker than the grading service because I am not sure they'll turn the PCGS-NGC duopoly into a triopoly.

Triopoly, with CACG at the top and everybody wondering if all the U.S. coins in PCGS and NGC holders weren't good enough to cross. I wonder if this possibility has anything to do with the number of world coins in brand new PCGS holders hitting the market the past 6 months. I've never seen so many PCGS world coins, they don't pull in premiums like PCGS U.S. coins do over NGC U.S. typically 

Premiums for CAC stickered coins will probably go up multiples compared to any of the three TPG slabs if/when they stop. 

[GoldFinger1969]

All CACG is doing -- correct me if I am wrong -- is putting pressure on PCGS and NGC (and the others) to make sure that the numerical grade assigned is STRONG for the coin.  Doesn't mean it will or should upgrade 1 increment higher....just that it's not a "crappy" coin for the grade or overgraded.

The abscence of a CAC sticker didn't imply that the coin was overgraded...just that it might not be strong for the grade.  When CAC began, the purpose was to designate those coins that were "A" (strong for the grade) and not worry about "B" (fair for the grade) or "C" (weak for the grade or overgraded).

Right ? 

Edited December 17, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[Thomas Little]

Before they started their new grading company in VA they were offering to buy coins they sticker but have now discontinued that which takes away a significant part of sending coins into them.

[Sandon]

On 12/17/2023 at 12:47 PM, Thomas Little said:

Before they started their new grading company in VA they were offering to buy coins they sticker but have now discontinued that

    I'm glad to learn of this! It would be a gross conflict of interest for a grading service to buy and sell coins, especially ones that that service had graded.

[VKurtB]

On 12/17/2023 at 1:01 PM, Sandon said:

    I'm glad to learn of this! It would be a gross conflict of interest for a grading service to buy and sell coins, especially ones that that service had graded.

Wait. Conflicts of interest in the coin field!?!? “Say it ain’t so, Joe.” Actually, it’s par for this course. 

[Mike Meenderink]

 CACG is bringing premiums due to the little beans now being part of the grading process. Thus, being in a CACG holder the coin is seen by collectors as accurately very firm in its grade with a market value quality consideration for eye appeal. The company has built a reputation for discerning the best of the best. Now they will attempt to cash in on that reputation by offering a quality reputable option for grading coins.

[VKurtB]

On 12/17/2023 at 5:18 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

 CACG is bringing premiums due to the little beans now being part of the grading process. Thus, being in a CACG holder the coin is seen by collectors as accurately very firm in its grade with a market value quality consideration for eye appeal. The company has built a reputation for discerning the best of the best. Now they will attempt to cash in on that reputation by offering a quality reputable option for grading coins.

And abandoning their previous partners. I can only hope that all the CAC sticker bootlickers will have enough remaining saliva to lick all the new CACG slab boots too.

Edited December 18, 2023 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2023 at 12:47 PM, Thomas Little said:

Before they started their new grading company in VA they were offering to buy coins they sticker but have now discontinued that which takes away a significant part of sending coins into them.

Right, they said they'd sort of be a "market maker" in the coins they sticker....but did anybody ever really take advantage of that, outside of maybe approaching them at coin shows with stuff to sell ?    Doubt people would mail them coins, right ?

I'm not sure how they could also be a BUYER without also doing SELLING -- right ? 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2023 at 11:37 PM, VKurtB said:

And abandoning their previous partners. I can only hope that all the CAC sticker bootlickers will have enough remaining saliva to lick all the new CACG slab boots too.

It will be fascinating to see what The Big Boys do in terms of valuing CACG vs. PCGS (with or without a CAC) or NGC (ditto). 

This is where a trade organization would be helpful in determining or caluclating market shares for the 4 or 5 active TPGs.

Edited December 18, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 12/17/2023 at 11:46 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It will be fascinating to see what The Big Boys do in terms of valuing CACG vs. PCGS (with or without a CAC) or NGC (ditto). 

This is where a trade organization would be helpful in determining or caluclating market shares for the 4 or 5 active TPGs.

...dont need a trade org...just yardstick it by the prices realized on the withs n the withouts...i already know where the bucks r going to migrate to....

[GoldFinger1969]

deleted dupe

Edited December 19, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2023 at 10:27 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Triopoly, with CACG at the top and everybody wondering if all the U.S. coins in PCGS and NGC holders weren't good enough to cross. 

I think that was beginning to happen anyway, FM. 

I noticed the asking prices from sellers being too high and lots of CAC coins not getting bids.  Buyers are (correctly ?) assuming that if a CAC coin hasn't upgraded by now, it's NOT going to get the higher grade, with the higher price that would command particularly at inflection points (i.e., Saints at MS-67 vs. 66).

On 12/17/2023 at 10:27 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

I wonder if this possibility has anything to do with the number of world coins in brand new PCGS holders hitting the market the past 6 months. I've never seen so many PCGS world coins, they don't pull in premiums like PCGS U.S. coins do over NGC U.S. typically 

Interesting, wasn't aware of that.  Any reason why PCGS has this huge amount of world coins of late ?  Any hoards found ?  Could NGC maybe not handle the load and wait times too long (I know NGC commands a premium in foreign/world coins) ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2023 at 11:37 PM, VKurtB said:

And abandoning their previous partners.

They were not really partners, they were sort of vendors in the same general area.

Don't forget JA did have a role early in the start-ups for PCGS and NGC.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 12/18/2023 at 10:53 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Interesting, wasn't aware of that.  Any reason why PCGS has this huge amount of world coins of late ?  Any hoards found ?  Could NGC maybe not handle the load and wait times too long (I know NGC commands a premium in foreign/world coins) ?

Could be due to turnaround times at NGC lagging behind PCGS, not sure if that's actually true or not though. If NGC world coins sell at a premium compared to PCGS wouldn't you wait rather than leave $'s on the table? I don't know if PCGS is incentivizing people in an effort to generate more world coin submissions but I don't remember ever seeing this many on the market previously. The biggest eye opener is the number of PCGS slabs I've see in auctions recently, HA, S&B, etc., will sometimes have more PCGS than NGC world coins in their auction listings. Is PCGS making a stronger play for world coins in anticipation of potential market loss to CACG?

The current NYINC auction listings seem more inline with what I would normally expect as far as a split between NGC and PCGS, 3:1 or higher depending on which auction/session, auctions prior to this were much closer with the split or seemingly flipped. 

[zadok]

On 12/18/2023 at 11:39 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Could be due to turnaround times at NGC lagging behind PCGS, not sure if that's actually true or not though. If NGC world coins sell at a premium compared to PCGS wouldn't you wait rather than leave $'s on the table? I don't know if PCGS is incentivizing people in an effort to generate more world coin submissions but I don't remember ever seeing this many on the market previously. The biggest eye opener is the number of PCGS slabs I've see in auctions recently, HA, S&B, etc., will sometimes have more PCGS than NGC world coins in their auction listings. Is PCGS making a stronger play for world coins in anticipation of potential market loss to CACG?

The current NYINC auction listings seem more inline with what I would normally expect as far as a split between NGC and PCGS, 3:1 or higher depending on which auction/session, auctions prior to this were much closer with the split or seemingly flipped. 

...there r many influences on this current trend...dealers incentives, customers preferences, perceptions on graders, lag times, premiums on sales, registry sets on n on...but there is one factor we do not have access to that mite indicate the real story...crossovers, which way is this tide moving??....

[J P M]

Crossover would be cool if they would guaranty the same grade or better before removing it from the old holder.  otherwise I will pass. 

[zadok]

On 12/18/2023 at 8:15 PM, J P M said:

Crossover would be cool if they would guaranty the same grade or better before removing it from the old holder.  otherwise I will pass. 

...there is no guarantee the diff graders will agree on the previous grade but if they dont u can annotate the submission n keep the coin in its original submitted holder n the coin is returned to u as submitted n not removed....

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/18/2023 at 1:49 PM, zadok said:

...there r many influences on this current trend...dealers incentives, customers preferences, perceptions on graders, lag times, premiums on sales, registry sets on n on...but there is one factor we do not have access to that mite indicate the real story...crossovers, which way is this tide moving??....

It took me a great deal of trial and error to determine what are the best times and dates to publish, and breaking with my own disciplined approach, coincidentally answered the latter part of your question in an excruciatingly exhaustive piece this past weekend (a big no-no for me) and as I predicted the entire production was promptly sidelined, later "cleared" per the Editor -- and predictably never saw the light of day. My departure is imminent and entirely voluntary.

[GoldFinger1969]

Anybody read the interview with JA and Maurice Rosen from 2009 ?  I bumped up the thread so it's on the 1st Page of US COINS since I couldn't link to it for some reason (got a weird error message).

I thought this exchange was interesting:

MR: Do you have any desire to one day start your own coin grading service?

JA: I really don’t, and even if I did, as I mentioned earlier, if a “C” coin came in it would have to be identified as being in its full numerical grade, not a point lower. I think the present services have established a nice baseline. Let’s remember also that most of the rare coins in existence have already been graded, so what would be the point? There would just be a lot of wasted plastic as people crack coins out of their holders. It would be very confusing. PCGS and NGC are already embedded in the market. Introducing CAC is confusing enough.

Any interviews with JA are interesting, might want to Google his name and check them out.  He has interesting comments on pricing, trends, etc.  Even when dated, they fill in gaps in history.  I don't see too many other people talking about popular coin prices.

[GoldFinger1969]

Current interview with JA implies they are grading more along technical than market grading.  We'll see...

[Coinbuf]

On 12/17/2023 at 9:53 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

All CACG is doing -- correct me if I am wrong -- is putting pressure on PCGS and NGC (and the others) to make sure that the numerical grade assigned is STRONG for the coin.  Doesn't mean it will or should upgrade 1 increment higher....just that it's not a "crappy" coin for the grade or overgraded.

The abscence of a CAC sticker didn't imply that the coin was overgraded...just that it might not be strong for the grade.  When CAC began, the purpose was to designate those coins that were "A" (strong for the grade) and not worry about "B" (fair for the grade) or "C" (weak for the grade or overgraded).

Right ? 

A bit late to my replies on this thread and to return to the original thrust of the thread I believe your statement is only partially correct.   When JA first started CAC his goal was to find really nice, original, unmolested (or as close as can be) or "rare" coins that he would like to buy then resell to other dealers.   The bean was a way for him to identify those coins as they would come to the market via auctions or be offered directly to him.   Very quickly as more and more dealers and collectors started to submit to CAC the market adopted the A, B, C concept which was an easy concept for people to understand and accept.   A coins being the cream of the crop and those he felt were undergraded are a mix of gold and green beans.   The B coins are (in theory all green beaned) considered by JA as solid for the grade.   The C coins being a mixture of coins that are correctly graded but more lower end of the grade, overgraded (in his opinion), and those straight graded coins with surface issues or that have been doctored.

Once those CAC approved coins began to hit the market with dealers hyping them, collectors salivating over them, and both the PCGS and NGC registries recognizing those coins as better than average the market for these coins really took off and CAC became something other than the original intention.   And while I do not know this for fact, I think it may have become difficult for JA to buy CAC beaned coins, at levels where he could then resell for a profit as the collector demand really drove up the prices.   That last part is just speculation on my part but makes sense to me.

To return to the first part of my reply, because JA was looking for coins to buy and resell, some coins that might not meet the A or B concept may have been beaned simply because he wanted to be able to identify those coins for buying not necessarily because it was a true A or B coin.   For those who don't understand the original purpose of CAC it is those coins that may not look like an A or B coin but with a bean that confuse some collectors.

On 12/17/2023 at 9:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Right, they said they'd sort of be a "market maker" in the coins they sticker....but did anybody ever really take advantage of that, outside of maybe approaching them at coin shows with stuff to sell ?    Doubt people would mail them coins, right ?

I'm not sure how they could also be a BUYER without also doing SELLING -- right ? 

 

This is an extension of my reply above, the answer is yes JA did indeed buy CAC coins as they came to market.   Often through auction venues, but I do know a few collectors that have sold directly to JA.   Something to keep in mind, JA has himself said that he is/was not the highest paying buyer, which makes sense as his goal was to buy then resell to dealers via the wholesale side of the business.   So as CAC matured and the prices for beaned coins began to rise I would expect that fewer and fewer sold directly as it would have be smarter to sell your CAC beaned coins through an auction venue to realize the best selling price.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/28/2023 at 1:29 PM, Coinbuf said:

Very quickly as more and more dealers and collectors started to submit to CAC the market adopted the A, B, C concept which was an easy concept for people to understand and accept.   A coins being the cream of the crop and those he felt were undergraded are a mix of gold and green beans.   The B coins are (in theory all green beaned) considered by JA as solid for the grade.   The C coins being a mixture of coins that are correctly graded but more lower end of the grade, overgraded (in his opinion), and those straight graded coins with surface issues or that have been doctored.

I think you're not OFF here...but JA specifically addressed this in that interview.  He says the "A" coins would get the sticker...NOT the "B" coins....and the "C" coins are NOT necessarily overgraded.  They ARE right for the grade -- just WEAKER than the "A" and "B" coins.  He comes up with the "D" and "F" coin thing to distinguish totally misgraded coins.

Note what he says about a potential TPG by CAC:  He says they would have to grade "C" coins as MS-65 (for example) and NOT as MS-64's that are "A" coins with a sticker.

So either CACG has changed their grading style and/or the emphasis on technical vs. market grading in 2023 from what JA said in 2009 -- because he said a "C" coin in MS-65 (for example) is a 65 coin and should not become an MS-64 with a CAC bean ("A" coin).  If you read that entire interview which leads off this thread he is pretty clear that the problem was accentuated by all the "A" and "B" coins being hoarded by collectors and the "C" coins gravitating towards the dealers and affecting/skewing the pricing matrix for that grade.

He has some great price and grade information from a while back that I still think we are seeing the effects on.  The big difference today is that we are NOT seeing the huge increase in populations (percentage-wise or in absolute numbers) for most coins in most grades except the highest grades they exist in.  When he cited the $12,000 MS-66 Saint (I presume a common year)....clearly that was because the supply of 66's back in 1989-90 was very very low compared to today (and not because grading standards are easier today).

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/28/2023 at 1:29 PM, Coinbuf said:

the answer is yes JA did indeed buy CAC coins as they came to market.   Often through auction venues, but I do know a few collectors that have sold directly to JA.   Something to keep in mind, JA has himself said that he is/was not the highest paying buyer, which makes sense as his goal was to buy then resell to dealers via the wholesale side of the business.   So as CAC matured and the prices for beaned coins began to rise I would expect that fewer and fewer sold directly as it would have be smarter to sell your CAC beaned coins through an auction venue to realize the best selling price.

Yeah, he mentioned in that 2009 interview that the CAC premiums were pretty modest.  They took off years later, particularly when it became possible to ID coins that would upgrade and be worth a multiple of the price paid.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 12/28/2023 at 10:54 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Current interview with JA implies they are grading more along technical than market grading.  We'll see...

Saw this over at MyCollect.

[DeplorableDan]

On 12/28/2023 at 8:26 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think you're not OFF here...but JA specifically addressed this in that interview.  He says the "A" coins would get the sticker...NOT the "B" coins....and the "C" coins are NOT necessarily overgraded.  They ARE right for the grade -- just WEAKER than the "A" and "B" coins.  He comes up with the "D" and "F" coin thing to distinguish totally misgraded coins.

Note what he says about a potential TPG by CAC:  He says they would have to grade "C" coins as MS-65 (for example) and NOT as MS-64's that are "A" coins with a sticker.

So either CACG has changed their grading style and/or the emphasis on technical vs. market grading in 2023 from what JA said in 2009 -- because he said a "C" coin in MS-65 (for example) is a 65 coin and should not become an MS-64 with a CAC bean ("A" coin).  If you read that entire interview which leads off this thread he is pretty clear that the problem was accentuated by all the "A" and "B" coins being hoarded by collectors and the "C" coins gravitating towards the dealers and affecting/skewing the pricing matrix for that grade.

He has some great price and grade information from a while back that I still think we are seeing the effects on.  The big difference today is that we are NOT seeing the huge increase in populations (percentage-wise or in absolute numbers) for most coins in most grades except the highest grades they exist in.  When he cited the $12,000 MS-66 Saint (I presume a common year)....clearly that was because the supply of 66's back in 1989-90 was very very low compared to today (and not because grading standards are easier today).

Read the transcription of the interview again. He says that "A" and "B" get stickered, "C" does not. That is always how its been explained by CAC.

Regardless, I think people always get too hung up on this. "ABC" is a clever euphemism to try to put things in laymens terms to explain how the other companies standards are inferior to his. The graders at CACG dont look at a coin to decide if its an "A" "B" or "C" coin, they are simply grading the coins as they normally would. Theyre not identifying a 65 "C" and intentionally piutting it into a 64+ holder, if they think the coin is a 65 its going to be holdered as a 65. John Butler has made this very clear on the CAC forum. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/29/2023 at 10:45 AM, DeplorableDan said:

Read the transcription of the interview again. He says that "A" and "B" get stickered, "C" does not. That is always how its been explained by CAC.

Yes, missed that, thanks DD.  No way you could get 85% sticker rate if only "A" coins got stickered.

On 12/29/2023 at 10:45 AM, DeplorableDan said:

Regardless, I think people always get too hung up on this. "ABC" is a clever euphemism to try to put things in laymens terms to explain how the other companies standards are inferior to his. The graders at CACG dont look at a coin to decide if its an "A" "B" or "C" coin, they are simply grading the coins as they normally would. Theyre not identifying a 65 "C" and intentionally piutting it into a 64+ holder, if they think the coin is a 65 its going to be holdered as a 65. John Butler has made this very clear on the CAC forum. 

I think lots of CACG holder buyers are buying the holder and thinking that the coin is STRONG for the grade (A or B) even though back in 2008 and today CAC says that "C" coins will go into the grade they merit even if "weak" for the grade.

Clearly, CACG pricing -- which is on par or higher than for CAC stickered coins of the same grade -- shows that folks are paying a premium for what might be "C" coins (unless they are discerning the differnece within the CACG holders and only paying up for "A" or "B" coins).

Interesting to see what JA said about becoming a TPG in 2008 vs. what is happening now. 

[Coinbuf]

On 12/29/2023 at 8:18 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Saw this over at MyCollect.

That video was already posted on the PCGS forum, what a joke, I'll say the same thing I said there.

"Ok here is what I took away from this video. First the guy doing the talking states he is not bashing, but he clearly is, even the video title is worded as bashing and click bait to get views. Second we have no idea who sent in those coins, but if he is actually a coin dealer he needs to find a new job; quickly. I only saw two or three of the coins that were shown that I would question the CAC grade, really the bigger question is why in the world would anyone submit coins that were already ugly and damaged pocket change to start with and/or have turned in the holder unless you hoped to game the system or to purposely bash CACG.

Whoever sent those coins in deserved the grades he got, plain and simple. And the guy doing the talking just looks foolish defending those junk coins."

Basically this video was done to garner likes and views in an attempt to besmirch and bash CAC, total hack job.   I have not looked but I would not be surprised to find that the guy who did the video is a CAC hatter, perhaps he has other older videos bashing CAC stickering.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Coinbuf