Has Gradeflation Peaked ? 0

[Dave1384]

On 10/23/2023 at 8:28 PM, World Colonial said:

there isn't a dime's worth of practical difference between coins with the different labels in your examples and that it's all financialization and marketing?

 

I recently purchased a ‘23s quarter. The greysheet wholesale bid price for it is 400.00 more for one with a bean.

So, I now need 2 ! Opinions to get a better price ? THAT is grade inflation and it permeates this hobby . Another angle to navigate And it irritates me to no end. Roger is right, there is an element of greed. 

 There is a coin shop near me that had 3 half eagles  . They are also on eBay. One of those dates has 2 listings ; one in an NGC holder and one in a PCGS holder. Same grade, ms 61 . The latter holder is 100.00 more. Buy the coin , not the label everyone says. I like the owner, but this is bull sht. 
 

All this might not quite pertain to the op’s question, but it’s two examples of inflation where it ought not to be. 
 

Edited March 10 by Dave1384

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/9/2024 at 9:16 PM, Dave1384 said:

I recently purchased a ‘23s quarter. The greysheet wholesale bid price for it is 400.00 more for one with a bean. So, I now need 2 ! Opinions to get a better price ? THAT is grade inflation and it permeates this hobby . Another angle to navigate And it irritates me to no end. Roger is right, there is an element of greed.   There is a coin shop near me that had 3 half eagles  . They are also on eBay. One of those dates has 2 listings ; one in an NGC holder and one in a PCGS holder. Same grade, ms 61 . The latter holder is 100.00 more. Buy the coin , not the label everyone says. I like the owner, but this is bull sht.  All this might not quite pertain to the op’s question, but it’s two examples of inflation where it ought not to be. 

I think these are more cases of high prices than gradeflation.  Also, specialization of marketing.

At least you the seller/buying know what you are getting for when you sell/buy.  40 years ago, you might be selling a $400 coin for $125 or buying a $125 coin for $400.

Edited March 10 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 3/9/2024 at 8:16 PM, Dave1384 said:

I recently purchased a ‘23s quarter. The greysheet wholesale bid price for it is 400.00 more for one with a bean.

So, I now need 2 ! Opinions to get a better price ? THAT is grade inflation and it permeates this hobby . Another angle to navigate And it irritates me to no end. Roger is right, there is an element of greed. 

 There is a coin shop near me that had 3 half eagles  . They are also on eBay. One of those dates has 2 listings ; one in an NGC holder and one in a PCGS holder. Same grade, ms 61 . The latter holder is 100.00 more. Buy the coin , not the label everyone says. I like the owner, but this is bull sht. 
 

All this might not quite pertain to the op’s question, but it’s two examples of inflation where it ought not to be. 
 

None of that is gradeflation. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 3/11/2024 at 1:50 PM, VKurtB said:

None of that is gradeflation. 

Troo dat!  This is a far more sinister contagion and insidious. Forget the mask. Register your complaint with your feet. Stand your ground!  

[VKurtB]

I can’t believe this needs to be typed, but “gradeflation” is when coins of identical quality (or even the very same coin) keep getting higher and higher GRADES. It has nothing whatsoever to do with prices. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/11/2024 at 11:49 PM, VKurtB said:

I can’t believe this needs to be typed, but “gradeflation” is when coins of identical quality (or even the very same coin) keep getting higher and higher GRADES. It has nothing whatsoever to do with prices. 

But "market grading" is influenced by rapid and rising prices which leads to (one form of) gradeflation.  Read JA's comments in the 2022 CoinWeek article about 1985 Type Sets.

[VKurtB]

On 3/12/2024 at 2:09 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But "market grading" is influenced by rapid and rising prices which leads to (one form of) gradeflation.  Read JA's comments in the 2022 CoinWeek article about 1985 Type Sets.

Frankly, I couldn’t give less of a 💩 what JA thinks or says if I tried to, and I’d tell him so to his face if given an opportunity. Here is my evidence: I do not own even ONE CAC green or gold stickered coin, nor a single CACG coin, and I have no present plans to ever own one.

Edited March 12 by VKurtB

[BillJones]

From my observations "grade-flation" continues and CAC as mostly gone along with it. If CAC were not going along with it, the supply of CAC approved coins would be drying up. 

I bought this Type I gold dollar many years ago from a dealer who was playing the crack-out game. It is in a PCGS MS-64 holder and he figured it would make MS-65 which carried a $2 to $3 increase in value at the time. I paid too much because of that. It's as good as the MS-65 coins are now, but the MS-65 coins are only selling for a couple thousand dollars. So I'm behind the market with the most common gold dollar of all, the 1853-P.

As for CAC, they dampened my purchases of U.S. coins considerably. I got into British and Roman Imperial coins, and have really enjoyed it. 

Edited March 14 by BillJones

[GoldFinger1969]

Bill.......$2-$3 increase ?

Edited March 15 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

 

Bumping this ahead of the Spam/Malware Threads that have now moved from Currency to Coins. 

[World Colonial]

On 10/26/2023 at 3:48 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

"Has gradflation peaked?" Since I don't collect U.S. coins I really couldn't say, but I'm seeing more and more World coins in PCGS plastic and there are a lot of high grade pieces. It could be the start of gradeflation for World coins, I'll have to pay more attention to get a better idea though. 

Just saw your post.

What coins do you refer to?

I doubt many world coins are resubmitted because the price difference between one or half point increments isn't economical most of the time.

One possibility is inconsistency.  That's what I see in my primary interest.  Sometimes there is also "net" grading instead of "details" grading the coin.

Another possibility is that the coins are actually more common than you thought, especially if from Europe.  Somewhat arbitrarily, I'd describe the vast majority of post 1815 European coinage as common, with the most likely reason it isn't the mintage which I haven't seen for most of it.  Numerous coins back to the mid-18th century even in high quality aren't particularly scarce either, except maybe compared to most US coinage.  The TPG data isn't a reflection of the actual scarcity.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 5/12/2024 at 4:30 PM, World Colonial said:

Just saw your post.

What coins do you refer to?

I doubt many world coins are resubmitted because the price difference between one or half point increments isn't economical most of the time.

One possibility is inconsistency.  That's what I see in my primary interest.  Sometimes there is also "net" grading instead of "details" grading the coin.

Another possibility is that the coins are actually more common than you thought, especially if from Europe.  Somewhat arbitrarily, I'd describe the vast majority of post 1815 European coinage as common, with the most likely reason it isn't the mintage which I haven't seen for most of it.  Numerous coins back to the mid-18th century even in high quality aren't particularly scarce either, except maybe compared to most US coinage.  The TPG data isn't a reflection of the actual scarcity.

At the time I was noticing a lot of modern world coins in PCGS plastic in high grades, Irish coins between 1928-65, Rhodesia, Guatemala, Italy, Isle of Man, and Ukraine to name a few. Most were key dates, varieties, and errors in higher grades than is normally seen but I didn't take the time to assess if I thought many were over graded since I wasn't going to be a player at those estimates and prices realized. 

I agree that it is doubtful that many world coins are resubmitted or even crossed over but a one point increment would net the submitter a positive gain for most if not all of the coins I was looking at. My thought was more along the lines that, possibly or if, PCGS was trying to take market share in world coins would they be slightly looser with their grades, or net grading instead of details, etc., then coins realize higher prices and more submissions coming in because of that, not resubmissions or crossovers. 

Some of the coins are very common and there is plenty of raw material in high grades to be found, so it is possible that individuals cherrypicked a lot of nice coins and sent them into PCGS. The influx of world coins in PCGS plastic seems to have slowed a bit since my last post, it's very possible that TPG turnaround times played a factor in what I was seeing as well. 

[Henri Charriere]

No, not yet here, and won't for another year.  Europe is a different story: when a grade falls squarely within a range of grades, and the cost of certification reverts to submitters, water will seek its own level.

I am afraid I cannot speak for the other continents.