Has Gradeflation Peaked ? 0

[GoldFinger1969]

I'm wondering because the internet has now made anybody who is a serious buyer or collector aware of the coins, time periods, and grading histories that are a bit on the generous side.   As usual, I am making my observation based on what I have seen with Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles but feel free to chime in on other popular coins.

What I am seeing specifically is that the premiums that were in the past paid for coins with a "+" or a CAC sticker are not driving the coins up in price as was more common 5-10 years ago.  People are realizing that getting an MS-66+ for $4,500 (with an MS-66 costing about $3,500) does not mean the coin has a great/good shot at becoming an MS-67 worth $10,000 or more.

I see lots of coins not getting any bids, because the seller is asking too high a price.  Those that do sell are NOT closing the majority of the gap to the next highest grade if they are 65's or 66's.

My guess is most serious buyers who are paying 4 or 5-figures for a coin are pretty savvy about the market for that coin and/or have good grading skills (like many here).  They can probably independently tell if a coin is likely to grade higher (assuming a 1-point increment means Big $$$)....and they realize that if a coin hasn't gotten that grade BY NOW from a major TPG...it isn't likely to going forward. 

The easy pickings are done, the low-hanging fruit has been picked.  If your odds in the past of finding a true MS-67 or MS-66 by buying a 66 or 65 with a "+" or CAC sticker were 1 in 2 or 1 in 3...maybe now they are 1 in 5 or even 1 in 10.  That's how I see it.

Thoughts ?

Edited October 23, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

Maybe buyers had a reverse epiphany where they collectively realized there isn't a dime's worth of practical difference between coins with the different labels in your examples and that it's all financialization and marketing?

Probably not, but that would make a lot more sense.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/23/2023 at 8:28 PM, World Colonial said:

Maybe buyers had a reverse epiphany where they collectively realized there isn't a dime's worth of practical difference between coins with the different labels in your examples and that it's all financialization and marketing? Probably not, but that would make a lot more sense.

No argument, but when you can reap Big $$$ by getting that 1-point upgrade, the incentive is huge to go for it.

Even coins with the "+" AND CAC are not going for what they would have years ago if you have a big inflection point price-wise.

[zadok]

On 10/24/2023 at 1:10 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

No argument, but when you can reap Big $$$ by getting that 1-point upgrade, the incentive is huge to go for it.

Even coins with the "+" AND CAC are not going for what they would have years ago if you have a big inflection point price-wise.

...ur original premises have some merit e.g. that serious collectors (not non-collector investors) r becoming more knowning on how to grade n evaluate the actual coins n not just rely on labels is accurate...the determining factors on buying n recertifying r a bit more complex, its more than just deciding whether a coin possibly will upgrade that 1 point n reap the increased financial reward...having the cac sticker still yields extra value, how much more varies n will vary even more so once cac graded coins hit the market n the market assesses those coins into the bigger picture...buying a 65+ coin does not guarantee a cac sticker, buying a choice 65 coin that is actually a 65+ or a 66 coin is much more likely to cac than the 65+ coin, that is where the astute buyer reaps the biggest reward...i would probably go along with ur assessment that most 66 coins still in a 65 holder have been plucked, collections that have been off the market for years still have that potential but those r not everyday opportunities....

[Zebo]

Even as the Brits and Aussies normally have tighter standards, I see some of the auction houses in those countries loosening. A bit of a ring of war right now.

[RWB]

No. Definitions and 'hare-splitting' continue under the guise of "attribution and grading."

[Coinbuf]

I very much doubt that gradeflation has peaked just yet, after all there is still plenty of space in those MS68 and MS69 grades for coins to upgraded to.    Just yesterday on the PCGS forum a member posted a Morgan dollar on a GTG thread.   Today he revealed the grade of PCGS MS68, was previously NGC MS67+CAC, so was NGC and CAC correct and PCGS gradeflated (is that a word ) the coin?   Is PCGS correct with the new higher grade?   Those are just rhetorical questions as grades are only opinions at one point in time, I will say that from the photos posted in that thread (both a TV and the op's photos) nobody guessed higher than MS67 and most were in the MS66 or MS65 range.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Coinbuf

[RWB]

When EF coins are given and "official" designation of "AU" -- what can one think? This continued slippage shifts prices upward for better quality circulated coins. It deceives the broader group of buyers into thinking they have something of greater value, when it's really the same pig in a trumped-up poke.

[Fenntucky Mike]

Will CACG fan the flames of gradeflation? 

Will gradeflation or CACG's supposedly stricter standards eventually suppress CACG submissions? Too many downgrades or rejects coming back in attempts to crossover, etc.. 

"Has gradflation peaked?" Since I don't collect U.S. coins I really couldn't say, but I'm seeing more and more World coins in PCGS plastic and there are a lot of high grade pieces. It could be the start of gradeflation for World coins, I'll have to pay more attention to get a better idea though. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/26/2023 at 3:47 PM, RWB said:

When EF coins are given and "official" designation of "AU" -- what can one think? 

To me.....a high-EF coin slipping into the lower ranks of AU is not as egregious as a solid MS-63/dubious-MS-64 getting an MS-65 or God Forbid an MS-66 grade.

Newcomers, you may want to check out the "Franklin Gradeflation Thread" ATS.  Very instructive.

[bstrauss3]

Won't be peak until you have MS-71, MS-72 &c

[VKurtB]

Like many things in numismatics, gradeflation will ebb and flow over time. It really is an unintentional phenomenon. It is actually about changes in taste over time.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/26/2023 at 8:18 PM, VKurtB said:

Like many things in numismatics, gradeflation will ebb and flow over time. It really is an unintentional phenomenon. It is actually about changes in taste over time.

True....but I think it's most egregious at price inflection points, as was shown in the Franklin thread.  The fact that it happens right around price jumps can be very upsetting to those who lost out.

[RWB]

On 10/26/2023 at 8:18 PM, VKurtB said:

It really is an unintentional phenomenon. It is actually about changes in taste over time.

Get you head out of the Alabama muck! It is about greed, churning re-submissions, and selling labels. It might not be planned in the technical sense, but it has little to do with "taste."

Edited October 27, 2023 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/27/2023 at 10:19 AM, RWB said:

Get you head out of the Alabama muck! It is about greed, churning re-submissions, and selling labels. It might not be planned in the technical sense, but it has little to do with "taste."

I think it happens also at grade levels where the monetary benefit is minimal.  Just gets less much notice.

Does anybody care if a common Saint is graded AU-53 or AU-55 ?  Probably not, $$$ value the same.

[VKurtB]

On 10/26/2023 at 10:48 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

True....but I think it's most egregious at price inflection points, as was shown in the Franklin thread.  The fact that it happens right around price jumps can be very upsetting to those who lost out.

I don't believe that even the most egregious Franklin story contains intent. Franklins were like Ikes before Ikes were. The series got close to ZERO respect from graders. Not the grading FIRMS per se; I'm taking about the people, the graders. They were graded in about 3 seconds each and were graded in a narrow band of grades. Then one day somebody got serious about some Franklins that were just "better" and deserved a higher grade. I don't EVER expect Roger Burdette to EVER get ANYTHING right regarding grading, and I'll seldom be disappointed. Roger writes, nah, compiles. That doesn't mean he can also THINK. He can't.

Edited October 31, 2023 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 10/27/2023 at 9:19 AM, RWB said:

Get you head out of the Alabama muck! It is about greed, churning re-submissions, and selling labels. It might not be planned in the technical sense, but it has little to do with "taste."

Well at least nobody can accuse YOU of greed. Writing doesn't typically work that way. Writers write because they can't not write.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/31/2023 at 11:04 AM, VKurtB said:

I don't believe that even the most egregious Franklin story contains intent. Franklins were like Ikes before Ikes were. The series got close to ZERO respect from graders. Not the grading FIRMS per se; I'm taking about the people, the graders. They were graded in about 3 seconds each and were graded in a narrow band of grades. Then one day somebody got serious about some Franklins that were just "better" and deserved a higher grade. I don't EVER expect Roger Burdette to EVER get ANYTHING right regarding grading, and I'll seldom be disappointed. Roger writes, nah, compiles. That doesn't mean he can also THINK. He can't.

Roger has nothing to do with the Franklin Gradeflation Thread, FYI.

Have you read it ?  Very interesteing and curious considering you had some skilled collectors and graders who could NOT get the upgrade and yet after they parted with some coins, they "miraculously" went up 1-2 grades...with FBL...and/or CAC. 

I've been dubious about "speed grading" for years and yet have been told by folks with much better grading skills than me that when you do this for a living and see hundreds of coins a day for years....all you need is 15-20 seconds, tops....and often times, less.  

Edited October 31, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 10/31/2023 at 10:25 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Roger has nothing to do with the Franklin Gradeflation Thread, FYI.

Have you read it ?  Very interesteing and curious considering you had some skilled collectors and graders who could NOT get the upgrade and yet after they parted with some coins, they "miraculously" went up 1-2 grades...with FBL...and/or CAC. 

I've been dubious about "speed grading" for years and yet have been told by folks with much better grading skills than me that when you do this for a living and see hundreds of coins a day for years....all you need is 15-20 seconds, tops....and often times, less.  

15-20 seconds is an eternity for most more modern U.S. coins.

[VKurtB]

On 10/31/2023 at 10:25 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Roger has nothing to do with the Franklin Gradeflation Thread, FYI

True, but he made an idiotic comment upthread on this one. Typical Roger.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/31/2023 at 11:59 AM, VKurtB said:

15-20 seconds is an eternity for most more modern U.S. coins.

For John Albanese or David Hall or the late David Akers or some of our veterans here, sure. 

What about some kid in his 20's who's been a coin collector for maybe 15 years and was just hired by PCGS or NGC or CACG because they have thousands of coins to grade and needed a body to hire ASAP ? 

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 10/31/2023 at 11:55 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

For John Albanese or David Hall or the late David Akers or some of our veterans here, sure. 

What about some kid in his 20's who's been a coin collector for maybe 15 years and was just hired by PCGS or NGC or CACG because they have thousands of coins to grade and needed a body to hire ASAP ? 

 

If he's spending more than 10 seconds on the coins they give to beginners, his career will be EXCEPTIONALLY short. ESPECIALLY bullion pieces need to be out in 5 seconds.

Edited October 31, 2023 by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

On 10/24/2023 at 2:57 PM, RWB said:

No. Definitions and 'hare-splitting' continue under the guise of "attribution and grading."

I agree.  Mintage is a given.  Rarity, according the the Great z is dependent on availability but demand is fickle.

[GoldFinger1969]

If CAC tapped on the brakes of gradeflation......CACG is slamming on the brakes. 

[VKurtB]

On 2/10/2024 at 9:52 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If CAC tapped on the brakes of gradeflation......CACG is slamming on the brakes. 

CACG is one and ONLY one thing. It is all about “look at me, I’m different”. The implication is that “different” is synonymous with “better”. It’s not true when beginners look at damaged coins, and it’s no more true when a grading firm goes ape-poopy over being different. Different means different, nothing more. 

[Henri Charriere]

CACG... new guy on the block.

Ford Mustang?  Or Ford Edsel?

Only time will tell...

 

[VKurtB]

On 2/12/2024 at 4:47 AM, Henri Charriere said:

CACG... new guy on the block.

Ford Mustang?  Or Ford Edsel?

Only time will tell...

 

They are targeting a slice of the market, very effectively. It is a market segment to which I do not belong, and I have no desire to join. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 2/11/2024 at 11:33 PM, VKurtB said:

CACG is one and ONLY one thing. It is all about “look at me, I’m different”. The implication is that “different” is synonymous with “better”. It’s not true when beginners look at damaged coins, and it’s no more true when a grading firm goes ape-poopy over being different. Different means different, nothing more. 

Different and strict.  Like the substitute teacher that you thought would be a pushover and the first things out of her mouth were "Take out your pen or pencil, this is a suprise quiz." 

[zadok]

On 2/11/2024 at 11:33 PM, VKurtB said:

CACG is one and ONLY one thing. It is all about “look at me, I’m different”. The implication is that “different” is synonymous with “better”. It’s not true when beginners look at damaged coins, and it’s no more true when a grading firm goes ape-poopy over being different. Different means different, nothing more. 

...could u differentiate tween ape-poopy n monkey-s..t?....

Edited February 12 by zadok
spelling

[Henri Charriere]

Note that the hierarchy has expanded... in descending order:  domain, kingdom, phylum class, order, family, genus and species.  I do not know what term practicing numismatists use but these are generally referred to as CERTIFIED COPROLITES by discreet collectors.  🤣