Those interested in Eagles and Double Eagles might look at the Fairmont Collection auction 1 1

[FrankNYC]

On 9/20/2024 at 9:07 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It would be fascinating to track the census population for some coins over the years from published sources.  I started to do a spreadsheet for that using 3 books on Saints -- Bowers (2004), Akers (2011), and RWB (2018) -- but I got sidetracked.

My understanding is that PCGS used to put out an annual Population Census (for PCGS-only) but doesn't anymore, is that true ?  What about NGC ?

PCGS has both their graded population and overall survival estimates. The survival estimates are broken down by year and mint and show overall numbers for that year and mint, MS 60 and up, and MS 65 and up. I didn't see an easy to view spreedsheet though. So, to get the total numbers for CC mint coins, for example, you need to click on each year and add up the numbers.

Edited September 21 by FrankNYC

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/20/2024 at 9:26 PM, FrankNYC said:

PCGS has both their graded population and overall survival estimates. The survival estimates are broken down by year and mint and show overall numbers for that year and mint, MS 60 and up, and MS 65 and up. I didn't see an easy to view spreedsheet though. So, to get the total numbers for CC mint coins, for example, you need to click on each year and add up the numbers.

But the actual Population Census book/pamphlet....put out every year (I see them on Ebay up to about 2010)....those are no longer put out, right ?

Vets tell me it's because the populations of "rarities" exploded.

[FrankNYC]

I was curious, so I added up the PCGS numbers. I also found an article stating that overall, 864,179 coins were minted over the span of 19 years, with an estimated 3.18% surviving (so approximately 27,000 coins survived). “(Rusty) Goe suggests that this number is probably on the high side and believes the true total is probably 2,000 to 3,000 less.”

Now, to the PCGS survival rates by year (where an estimated range is given, I used the higher number). NB: the first number is the total for that year; the number after the slash are coins in MS 60 and above. There were no CC coins graded MS-65 or higher.

 

1870 50/0

1871 215/2

1872 402/5

1873 405/12

1874 2,131/15

1875 3,337/612

1876 3,550/325

1877 1,020/42

1878 403/9

1879 574/26

1882 1,167/82

1883 1,540/102

1884 2,525/350

1885 393/51

1889 1,060/197

1890 3,325/475

1891 308/51

1892 1,487/250

1893 1,112/437/2 PL

Overall total as per PCGS overall population reports: 25,004; included in this number are 3,043 in MS condition, and 2 PL coins.

[RWB]

On 9/21/2024 at 7:51 AM, FrankNYC said:

There were no CC coins graded MS-65 or

But wait....in a few years those current MS-61s will magically upgrade to MS-65 or 66.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/21/2024 at 7:51 AM, FrankNYC said:

I was curious, so I added up the PCGS numbers. I also found an article stating that overall, 864,179 coins were minted over the span of 19 years, with an estimated 3.18% surviving (so approximately 27,000 coins survived). “(Rusty) Goe suggests that this number is probably on the high side and believes the true total is probably 2,000 to 3,000 less.” 

OK, you're talking about Carson City coins, right ?  I would go with Goe since he has super in-depth writings on those coins instead of a more generalist approach.  But where did PCGS or someone say that of the entiere 800K CC mintage the surivor rate was 3.2% ??  

That gives you a figure WAY OFF from Goe's 3,000 or less.  When dealing with a specific niche (CC's), the survivor rate and/or haircuts might be larger than with that of the overall coin type I would venture (Double Eagles > Liberty Head DEs > Carson City DEs). 

 

" Now, to the PCGS survival rates by year (where an estimated range is given, I used the higher number). NB: the first number is the total for that year; the number after the slash are coins in MS 60 and above. There were no CC coins graded MS-65 or higher. 1870 50/0   1871 215/2   1872 402/5  1873 405/12  1874 2,131/15  1875 3,337/612  1876 3,550/325  1877 1,020/42 1878 403/9  1879 574/26  1882 1,167/82   1883 1,540/102  1884 2,525/350  1885 393/51  1889 1,060/197  1890 3,325/475  1891 308/51  1892 1,487/250  1893 1,112/437/2 PL   Overall total as per PCGS overall population reports: 25,004; included in this number are 3,043 in MS condition, and 2 PL coins."

OK, if PCGS has those as the ACTUAL Pop Census/Graded Coins for those years and types, I'll assume even if they are "high" that they are in the ballpark.  So even if you haircut them a bit, it still is way above what Goe has in his book (I presume that's where you got his estimate).  

When was the book published ?  Maybe a few hoards inflated the PCGS totals, including Fairmont ?  

Edited September 21 by GoldFinger1969

[FrankNYC]

On 9/21/2024 at 11:41 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

OK, you're talking about Carson City coins, right ?  I would go with Goe since he has super in-depth writings on those coins instead of a more generalist approach.  But where did PCGS or someone say that of the entiere 800K CC mintage the surivor rate was 3.2% ??  

That gives you a figure WAY OFF from Goe's 3,000 or less.  When dealing with a specific niche (CC's), the survivor rate and/or haircuts might be larger than with that of the overall coin type I would venture (Double Eagles > Liberty Head DEs > Carson City DEs). 

 

" Now, to the PCGS survival rates by year (where an estimated range is given, I used the higher number). NB: the first number is the total for that year; the number after the slash are coins in MS 60 and above. There were no CC coins graded MS-65 or higher. 1870 50/0   1871 215/2   1872 402/5  1873 405/12  1874 2,131/15  1875 3,337/612  1876 3,550/325  1877 1,020/42 1878 403/9  1879 574/26  1882 1,167/82   1883 1,540/102  1884 2,525/350  1885 393/51  1889 1,060/197  1890 3,325/475  1891 308/51  1892 1,487/250  1893 1,112/437/2 PL   Overall total as per PCGS overall population reports: 25,004; included in this number are 3,043 in MS condition, and 2 PL coins."

OK, if PCGS has those as the ACTUAL Pop Census/Graded Coins for those years and types, I'll assume even if they are "high" that they are in the ballpark.  So even if you haircut them a bit, it still is way above what Goe has in his book (I presume that's where you got his estimate).  

When was the book published ?  Maybe a few hoards inflated the PCGS totals, including Fairmont ?  

the 2-3k fewer coins quote attributed to Rusty Goe is 2-3k fewer from the 27k+ that is thought to have survived. So 24 to 25k, which is in line with the PCGS estimates 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/21/2024 at 1:22 PM, FrankNYC said:

the 2-3k fewer coins quote attributed to Rusty Goe is 2-3k fewer from the 27k+ that is thought to have survived. So 24 to 25k, which is in line with the PCGS estimates 

OH.....so Goe says 2-3,000 FEWER....I thought you meant IN TOTAL.

My mistake, Frank. 

Since I brought it up....have there been any CC DEs in the Fairmont Hoard ?  

[FrankNYC]

On 9/23/2024 at 12:47 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

OH.....so Goe says 2-3,000 FEWER....I thought you meant IN TOTAL.

My mistake, Frank. 

Since I brought it up....have there been any CC DEs in the Fairmont Hoard ?  

I've seen a few MS rated CC coins with the Fairmont tag, so yes, a few CCs made it to Europe! (or Venezuela...or wherever else the Fairmont hoard came from!)  The Carson City Double Eagle market still has room to grow though and can absorb more coins....when compared with Morgan CC collectors, that is.

Fascinating to see that the most in demand year Morgan CC, 1889, has over 25,000 coins that survived. That's the whole population of the gold CC DE for all 19 years of minting, yet an 1889-CC Double Eagle at AU-58 cost thousands less than an AU-58 1889-CC Morgan dollar!

Edited Monday at 09:16 PM by FrankNYC

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/23/2024 at 5:15 PM, FrankNYC said:

I've seen a few MS rated CC coins with the Fairmont tag, so yes, a few CCs made it to Europe! (or Venezuela...or wherever else the Fairmont hoard came from!)  The Carson City Double Eagle market still has room to grow though and can absorb more coins....when compared with Morgan CC collectors, that is.

People romantacize the Old West.  And many of today's buyers grew up when 31 -- yup, 31 !!   -- Western TV shows were on the air.  Even into the late-1960's and early-1970's, you could find a bunch of them still on the air (i.e., Bonanza).  Many of you probably watched them in primetime, or in reruns, or maybe if younger you've seen a few on cable TV where they are all over the place.

On 9/23/2024 at 5:15 PM, FrankNYC said:

Fascinating to see that the most in demand year Morgan CC, 1889, has over 25,000 coins that survived. That's the whole population of the gold CC DE for all 19 years of minting, yet an 1889-CC Double Eagle at AU-58 cost thousands less than an AU-58 1889-CC Morgan dollar!

OK....just doing a quick-check from my Red Books....the population for 1889-CC DE's is low triple digits (or was ini 2004)....probably expanded since....while that for Mint State 1889-CC MSDs was low single-digits (probably a few more since, too).  So even with gold being much more expensive than silver, the DE costs much less because the AU and MS populations fall off much more for the MSD.

Right ?

Edited Tuesday at 07:47 PM by GoldFinger1969

[FrankNYC]

On 9/24/2024 at 3:46 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

People romantacize the Old West.  And many of today's buyers grew up when 31 -- yup, 31 !!   -- Western TV shows were on the air.  Even into the late-1960's and early-1970's, you could find a bunch of them still on the air (i.e., Bonanza).  Many of you probably watched them in primetime, or in reruns, or maybe if younger you've seen a few on cable TV where they are all over the place.

OK....just doing a quick-check from my Red Books....the population for 1889-CC DE's is low triple digits (or was ini 2004)....probably expanded since....while that for Mint State 1889-CC MSDs was low single-digits (probably a few more since, too).  So even with gold being much more expensive than silver, the DE costs much less because the AU and MS populations fall off much more for the MSD.

Right ?

More of demand, it appears. There looks to be about 3,000 1889-CC Morgans in various MS condition. Just the MS Morgan’s alone is 3x the entire population of 1889-CC DEs

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/25/2024 at 11:13 AM, FrankNYC said:

More of demand, it appears. There looks to be about 3,000 1889-CC Morgans in various MS condition. Just the MS Morgan’s alone is 3x the entire population of 1889-CC DEs

Just to show you how Population Guestimates change....

I have the 4th Edition of Bowers MSD Red Book.  It was published in 2012.  For the 1889-CC MSD....it lists a total of 525 in Certified MS grades (I presume it is PCGS+NGC less double-counting). Only 128 in MS-63, 71 in MS-64, 6 in MS-65, and 1 each in MS-67 and MS-68+.  But the book lists a "field" population (included ungradeds and potentially undiscovered hoards) of close to 6,000-7,000 coins (most MS-60 to MS-62).

Does anybody have the latest book, the 7th Edition ?  I'm curious what the numbers for the 1889-CC MSD look like since the book was published 10 years later (2022).

 

 

 

Edited Wednesday at 03:35 PM by GoldFinger1969