The Danger Of Population Increases On Coin Prices 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

I didn't see this article years ago but a friend forwarded it to me (he's a nickel collector).

https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/pcgs-ngc-address-rising-population-for-rarities.htm

Just goes to show you what hidden hoards or unseen supply can do to prices !! 

___________________________________________________

The heads of the two leading third-party grading services (Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp.) traded words in an unusual public debate of sorts as they compete for market dominance.

On Jan. 17, NGC chairman Mark Salzberg published a letter on NGC’s website titled, “Salzberg Advises: Research PCGS Populations and Prices.” The letter addressed the NGC announcement at the end of 2016 that PCGS-certified coins would not be eligible for new inclusion in sets on the NGC Registry.

Salzberg wrote, “Over the last five years or so, I have noticed a perplexing trend at PCGS. There has been a dramatic increase in the grades assigned by PCGS for a wide range of coin types and, consequently, I believe this has caused an extraordinary reduction in the value of many PCGS-certified coins.”

Salzberg pointed to the 1912-S Liberty Head 5-cent piece, where the PCGS population in MS-66 has increased from eight in January 2012 to more than 50 today. Of course, when the population of a scarce coin moves up substantially, the prices are bound to fall.

Salzberg cited the sale of a PCGS MS-66 example in January 2012 for $37,375 compared with a sale of a comparably graded example at Heritage’s 2017 Florida United Numismatists show for $3,525. Salzberg noted, “This is a staggering loss of $33,850 (or 91%) of the coin’s value in five years,” before concluding, “How is it possible that eight 1912-S Liberty Nickels were graded PCGS MS 66 in the company’s first 25 years and 44 other examples were graded PCGS MS 66 in the last five years?”

PCGS President Don Willis responded two days later on the PCGS U.S. Coin Forum, writing, “We set the standard for third party grading 30 years ago. Every other grading service has attempted to copy that standard and has been playing a game of catch up for all those years.”

Addressing the population increase of some coins, Willis wrote, “We confess to being the most popular grading service. We process many more Vintage coins than NGC,” noting that populations rarely decrease as “there are always hidden collections, accumulations or hoards that come out.”

Willis pointed out that several original rolls of high-quality examples of 1912-S Liberty 5-cent coins have come to market in the past several years. He said, “These rolls were handled by some of the most knowledgeable dealers in the business. We are proud of the fact that these individuals, who have great insight in the coin market, chose PCGS to grade their coins.”

Salzberg, however, concluded, “An informed buyer is a smart buyer,” and advised collectors to research how a coin’s population and price have changed over time, before buying. The back-and-forth behind these two grading leaders is unusual as it provides a bit of transparency to these normally opaque matters that impact nearly all coin collectors.

[VKurtB]

This sort of thing goes on more than we’d like to think. It’s almost common. The only thing that’s truly scarce is transparency. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/16/2022 at 1:58 AM, VKurtB said:

This sort of thing goes on more than we’d like to think. It’s almost common. The only thing that’s truly scarce is transparency. 

I think if the increased supply comes from hoards -- either a surge or a trickle -- that's one thing. 

But re-submissions and crack-outs are another.

[Henri Charriere]

I have been sitting here on the sidelines very patiently for years and have come to the conclusion that the vast majority of coin collectors*----many having expressed as much themselves (though they would like to think differently)----have no intention of selling their coins off, ever.

*the figure I arrived at after much rumination is 99.44%.  That figure, coincidentally, coincides with the figure of all collectors who pretended to be delightfully satisfied with the prices of coins realized after being solicited by dealers for their "ballpark" sell figures.

To my knowledge, only one member, RWB, wisely suggested that where one's family members have shown a disinclination to pursue the hobby, the best course of action would be to sell and leave their heirs with something far more negotiable: currency of the realm.

[World Colonial]

This is because very few US coins are actually scarce and not as scarce as most collectors seem to believe either. 

Haven't read it lately, but I used to read regular accounts of how coins were submitted multiple times, occasionally until the "right" grade was received.

Sure, it happens.  But usually, there are going to be (far) more that have never been sent in versus resubmissions.  Only a very low minority of coins are worth enough to make it potentially worthwhile while concurrently only a very low minority of collectors can grade "accurately" to TPG standards.  There is after all (maybe in most instances), the equal possibility of a downgrade too.

PCGS Coin Facts itemizes up to the 10 "finest" known specimens for each coin they cover.  Some (where known) have the provenance included though most do not.  Where it isn't available, it isn't clear to me whether PCGS knows there aren't any duplicates, though I suspect some may be.

Concurrently though, it's evident just from the Heritage Marketplace that there likely aren't that many.  Last I checked, they had five (yes, 5) 1798 dimes in MS grades up to MS-64+, both major varieties.  Duplicate (high) MS for several other dates too.

Right now, an AU-58 of a coin in my series is up for sale.  It's one of two in this TPG's data and there is a third in the other.  The other one sold in 2020, I compared the images, and it's not a duplicate either.  The third may be a duplicate with one of the other two, don't know but assume not until proven otherwise.  The point is, this is a four- figure coin and while cheaper than Bust dimes and many other US coins, it's easily scarcer than the vast majority of US coins US collectors consider scarce or rare.

[World Colonial]

On 12/16/2022 at 2:21 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think if the increased supply comes from hoards -- either a surge or a trickle -- that's one thing. 

But re-submissions and crack-outs are another.

I doubt it. Gold coinage, Morgan dollars, and even those 1912-S nickels are almost certainly outliers, not the norm.

Unlike forum participants, most collectors and definitely non-collector owners who I believe own a lot of coins (like my now deceased step-grandmother I previously profiled) don't see a need to spend money for grading, may not have even heard of TPG, and the coin won't get graded until sold, whenever that is.

Take a look at Coin Facts which provides estimates for every coin they cover.  Many I consider obviously wrong and cannot be reconciled to the TPG data.  Still, I think the estimates with a large gap versus the TPG data are often "directionally" accurate.  Some are just "made up", but others must be from those who have collected or dealt in it for a long time.

[World Colonial]

On 12/16/2022 at 10:07 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

I have been sitting here on the sidelines very patiently for years and have come to the conclusion that the vast majority of coin collectors*----many having expressed as much themselves (though they would like to think differently)----have no intention of selling their coins off, ever.

The majority of coins to which you refer aren't worth selling because the individual coins or the collection isn't worth much.  There also may not be much point to having it graded prior to selling it. 

Just depends upon the contents and whether it will improve marketability sufficiently.

Most coins are very common, but even excluding this, there isn't any reason to believe that most collectors don't sell fairly regularly.  Selling coins is a primary source (often the primary source) to buy other coins.

Contrary to what you read here, most collectors don't find what they own so interesting that they won't sell it to collect something else.  It's evident from the availability even of supposedly scarce coins that typical holding periods aren't that long.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/16/2022 at 10:11 AM, World Colonial said:

Haven't read it lately, but I used to read regular accounts of how coins were submitted multiple times, occasionally until the "right" grade was received.

You would think that with the ability to do HiRes scans of coins they can tell which ones are being re-submitted or "sneaked" in for a higher grade.  You don't want different graders or a grader on a different day just giving the higher grade after 5 failures.

On 12/16/2022 at 10:11 AM, World Colonial said:

PCGS Coin Facts itemizes up to the 10 "finest" known specimens for each coin they cover.  Some (where known) have the provenance included though most do not.  Where it isn't available, it isn't clear to me whether PCGS knows there aren't any duplicates, though I suspect some may be.

The example given -- the 1912-S Nickel -- was very instructive to me because even though I am not familiar with the coin, you only had 8 of them through 2012 and then you got another 40+ by 2017 (wonder if there are more since ?).  2012 was 25 years of TPG existence so it's not like a population census increasing from 1992 when they were only around for about 5 years.

On 12/16/2022 at 10:18 AM, World Colonial said:

I doubt it. Gold coinage, Morgan dollars, and even those 1912-S nickels are almost certainly outliers, not the norm.

So you think Salzberg cherry-picked a particular coin and this isn't or hasn't been a problem with populations increasing over time ?

Again...population increases from new coins/hoards is one thing....I think it's where you have a "kink" in the price and lots of coins graded right below that level with a few then sneaking higher over time and slowly increasing the higher-graded population.  That's been the subject of the various Gradeflation Threads and complaints.

On 12/16/2022 at 10:18 AM, World Colonial said:

Unlike forum participants, most collectors and definitely non-collector owners who I believe own a lot of coins (like my now deceased step-grandmother I previously profiled) don't see a need to spend money for grading, may not have even heard of TPG, and the coin won't get graded until sold, whenever that is.

I think someone still collecting or starting out today HAS to run into the TPGs right away.  I could see your grandmother who probably started collecting 50-75 years ago not being totally aware of the TPGs during her later years just like somebody who grew up watching TV with "Rabbit ears" may never have thought of cable TV in the 1980's or 1990's.  But today, you have to have cable (or streaming or the Internet).

On 12/16/2022 at 10:18 AM, World Colonial said:

Take a look at Coin Facts which provides estimates for every coin they cover.  Many I consider obviously wrong and cannot be reconciled to the TPG data.  Still, I think the estimates with a large gap versus the TPG data are often "directionally" accurate.  Some are just "made up", but others must be from those who have collected or dealt in it for a long time.

I know for the Saints DE book that RWB didn't just add up the PCGS and NGC totals...he incorporated an algorithm of some type.  

I think over the next 10-15 years we're going to see lots of estates and collections have many coins come up for sale....we'll see how many are either scarce by themselves or scarce in a particular grade. 

[World Colonial]

On 12/16/2022 at 10:39 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You would think that with the ability to do HiRes scans of coins they can tell which ones are being re-submitted or "sneaked" in for a higher grade.  You don't want different graders or a grader on a different day just giving the higher grade after 5 failures.

Three things.  One, I don't think the TPG want to decrease resubmissions.  That's backwards as it would decrease revenue.  Second, it would cost something to do it and someone has to pay for it, in higher fees.  Third, it wouldn't be retrospective.

On 12/16/2022 at 10:39 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The example given -- the 1912-S Nickel -- was very instructive to me because even though I am not familiar with the coin, you only had 8 of them through 2012 and then you got another 40+ by 2017 (wonder if there are more since ?).  2012 was 25 years of TPG existence so it's not like a population census increasing from 1992 when they were only around for about 5 years.

I believe this coin is an outlier.  What some individual may do is impossible to predict which is why, given the size of the US collector base, there are probably numerous hoards for many different coins we don't know about.  But these hoards aren't usually going to be for this type of "key date" and won't be "gems" either.

It's going to be more common for coins that didn't circulate much, like gold and Morgan dollars.

On 12/16/2022 at 10:39 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

So you think Salzberg cherry-picked a particular coin and this isn't or hasn't been a problem with populations increasing over time ?

I don't believe the numbers are as distorted as he may be implying.  He should know better than me but if he does, where is the quantification?  Otherwise, it's just an unsubstantiated statement.

It depends upon the coin.  Obviously, two things apply.  First, the price spread between two grades has to be large enough to make it worthwhile.  Second, the owner has to have a reason to believe they have a reasonable probability of obtaining the upgrade.  It makes no sense to believe that collectors in large numbers are just randomly resubmitting coins without any basis.  With more expensive coins, presumably there are more "c*apshoot" resubmissions but shouldn't be that many proportionately.

That's why I gave the example of those 1798 dimes and the coin in my series, though it's not US.  These are examples but if this really that widespread, would be more likely with early dimes than most other US coinage.

When the South Africa coin forum was active (years ago), I'd constantly read a similar inference.  Supposedly, (practically) all available high-quality examples were submitted (none or virtually none left to be graded) plus people were just arbitrarily resubmitting and crossing coins over.

Why did they claim this?

To exaggerate the scarcity in the hope of inflating the price level as much as possible.

Was or is there any basis to this claim?

Well, the populations have increased a lot more since the price crash (2012).  Some of this could be resubmissions to improve marketability but given the much lower price level, it makes a lot more sense that this would have happened when the price level was much higher.

For US coinage, my assumption is that first, it happens more with widely bought "investor" coinage, like Morgan dollars and pre-1933 US gold. 

Secondly, where the TPG count right below condition census grade (or near) is large making the price spread high.  If you own an MS-66 "A" coin (not specific to CAC) with a large count where the MS-67 count is quite low, it makes sense, if you can grade to the TPG standard.  Otherwise, the owner is probably just wasting their money and possibly might find they end up with a downgrade instead.  I think most underestimate the way collectors view the risk of the latter.

I don't know any of the above as "fact".  It's a common sense inference.

[World Colonial]

On 12/16/2022 at 10:39 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think someone still collecting or starting out today HAS to run into the TPGs right away.  I could see your grandmother who probably started collecting 50-75 years ago not being totally aware of the TPGs during her later years just like somebody who grew up watching TV with "Rabbit ears" may never have thought of cable TV in the 1980's or 1990's.  But today, you have to have cable (or streaming or the Internet).

Yes, but there is plenty of supply in US coinage already graded.  It's not like they have to go out and buy an ungraded coin first.  Read @VKurtB prior posts.  Harvey Stack made the same claim on Coin Week.

There is a difference between new collectors and those who already own it.  It's not US coinage, but most (practically all) of the better coinage in my primary interest is not graded.  This is from the Sellschopp, Ortiz, and Patterson collections.

On 12/16/2022 at 10:39 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I know for the Saints DE book that RWB didn't just add up the PCGS and NGC totals...he incorporated an algorithm of some type.  

This would be an example of an educated guess.  In Coin Facts, much of that data is out of date.  I'll see estimates for MS-65+ which are lower than the consensus "best known" list.

Gaps between estimates and "expensive" coin TPG counts are more likely to be wrong, especially if an "investor" coin, like Saints and Morgan dollars.  I commented on the 1929 Saint (or some date) in another post.  943 supposedly exist with 321 graded.  Seems unlikely for a series I consider predominantly "investor" bought where I doubt the holding periods are unusually long.

On 12/16/2022 at 10:39 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think over the next 10-15 years we're going to see lots of estates and collections have many coins come up for sale....we'll see how many are either scarce by themselves or scarce in a particular grade. 

Agree.

But you don't seem to follow a wide variety of coinage.  Some coins are a lot more likely to be owned for long periods than others.

My explanation?

The coins with very long holding periods are a lot more interesting to the buyer. 

Look at the 1804 dollar and 1913 LHN versus the 1861 CSA half and 1792 Getz pattern half dollars in silver.  There are 8 and 5 of the 1804 dollar and 1913 LHN.  Four of the 1861 half and 22 of the 1792 half.  If you have the money, you can still buy the 1804 dollar or 1913 LHN every few years.  You can't buy the other two like that, unless you do so in a private transaction.

So, despite that the 1804 dollar and 1913 LHN are two of the best known, most expensive, and supposedly highest preferred coins, the evidence demonstrates that the buyers don't find these coins as interesting as most US collectors think.  If they did, the holding period would be longer.

Edited December 16, 2022 by World Colonial

[RWB]

This can be avoided by requiring all TPGs to give coins they examine either a tubal ligation or a vasectomy. No more population increases.

[Coinbuf]

On 12/16/2022 at 9:23 AM, World Colonial said:

  If they did, the holding period would be longer.

I pulled this portion of your reply out because I think you're not understanding the motive or rational behind the purchase of coins like this.   This is an ego driven look at what I own type of coin for wealthy collectors, a status item if you will.   Once a wealthy collector has owned it there is no reason to continue to hold it, he has already announced to the world his coin dominance and it is time to move on to the next big coin.   It is not that the coin is not interesting, especially to those who cannot afford one, but rather there is no reason to continue to hold it once the ego has been satisfied and the collector has added his name to the coin's provenance.

[RWB]

On 12/16/2022 at 12:14 PM, Coinbuf said:

here is no reason to continue to hold it once the ego has been satisfied

It's like in those nature documentaries about rutting elk. 

[World Colonial]

On 12/16/2022 at 12:14 PM, Coinbuf said:

I pulled this portion of your reply out because I think you're not understanding the motive or rational behind the purchase of coins like this.   This is an ego driven look at what I own type of coin for wealthy collectors, a status item if you will.   Once a wealthy collector has owned it there is no reason to continue to hold it, he has already announced to the world his coin dominance and it is time to move on to the next big coin.   It is not that the coin is not interesting, especially to those who cannot afford one, but rather there is no reason to continue to hold it once the ego has been satisfied and the collector has added his name to the coin's provenance.

 It's not that I misunderstand your point.  I disagree with this commonly held view.

The fact remains that if the buyer usually finds it as interesting as the general collector population who cannot afford it claims, why don't they own it as long as the other examples I gave or at least near it?

The length of the holding period versus the examples I gave is the only or at least most objective evidence of continuing interest.   This isn't just true for coins, it's true for anything, as long as the owner can afford to keep it.  Claiming continuing interest and then selling it is a logical contradiction.

The opinion of those who can't buy a coin is secondary (if not irrelevant) to those who own it.

[Coinbuf]

On 12/16/2022 at 10:49 AM, RWB said:

It's like in those nature documentaries about rutting elk. 

Almost exactly!

On 12/16/2022 at 10:51 AM, World Colonial said:

 It's not that I misunderstand your point.  I disagree with this commonly held view.

The fact remains that if the buyer usually finds it as interesting as the general collector population who cannot afford it claims, why don't they own it as long as the other examples I gave or at least near it?

The length of the holding period versus the examples I gave is the only or at least most objective evidence of continuing interest.   This isn't just true for coins, it's true for anything, as long as the owner can afford to keep it.  Claiming continuing interest and then selling it is a logical contradiction.

The opinion of those who can't buy a coin is secondary (if not irrelevant) to those who own it.

Because it is not about if the coin is interesting or not, it is all about the ego trip.   After the high of buying the coin and getting the "oohs" and "aahs" from other people there is no longer any reason to keep it, the high is gone and must be replaced with a new high, so the coin is sold and the whale looks for another trophy coin.

Now I've used whales and trophy coins in my verbiage, but collectors at all levels have this same experience, I know many collectors that are more interested in the hunt for a coin and are far less interested in keeping it afterwards.   Even I have experienced this to a degree, there is a high and feeling of satisfaction when you complete a series or find that perfect coin.   But then what, it gets placed into the bank vault and you may not even see it for months or years after, some are fine with that and wish to hold the coin, others are happy to have completed the task and sell the coin quickly to have the funds to find the next coin.

This behavior is not defined by the level of interest of that coin to the collecting population, only the continued interest to that one collector.   If his interest has been satisfied by the hunt then holding the coin may not be of interest.

[World Colonial]

On 12/16/2022 at 1:22 PM, Coinbuf said:

Almost exactly!

Because it is not about if the coin is interesting or not, it is all about the ego trip.   After the high of buying the coin and getting the "oohs" and "aahs" from other people there is no longer any reason to keep it, the high is gone and must be replaced with a new high, so the coin is sold and the whale looks for another trophy coin.

Now I've used whales and trophy coins in my verbiage, but collectors at all levels have this same experience, I know many collectors that are more interested in the hunt for a coin and are far less interested in keeping it afterwards.   Even I have experienced this to a degree, there is a high and feeling of satisfaction when you complete a series or find that perfect coin.   But then what, it gets placed into the bank vault and you may not even see it for months or years after, some are fine with that and wish to hold the coin, others are happy to have completed the task and sell the coin quickly to have the funds to find the next coin.

This behavior is not defined by the level of interest of that coin to the collecting population, only the continued interest to that one collector.   If his interest has been satisfied by the hunt then holding the coin may not be of interest.

I'm not disagreeing that they (the buyer) find the coins interesting while looking for it or as they buy it, whichever coin it may be.

Reading this post, I think I agree with you, maybe

The buyer has initial interest, which is why they bought it, but they lose interest a lot faster than the other examples I gave which actually have a lot more "collectible substance" not just to me, but those who own both.

I got off track trying to explain to @GoldFinger1969 attempting to illustrate why many coins don't show up in the TPG data, "trophy" coin or otherwise.  Many collectors don't see a need to grade coins (no matter the value), until they sell.  They probably usually wouldn't buy many of the same coins now outside of a TPG holder, but if they bought it decades ago before TPG became prevalent , keep it that way.

[GoldFinger1969]

Different coins might attract different types of investors, I don't know.  EC here owns the 1933 DE, it would be interesting if he chimed in with how long he intends to keep that coin and what might cause him to change his holding period.

Holders of a CSA coin might be very different from other U.S. Coin collectors and someone might want to hold that coins for decades as opposed to years.  I'm not sure how long Bob Simpson has been collecting, but he's been a seller for a few years.  Duckor started in the 1980's and unloaded everything about 30 years later.  Others of a bygone era had their collections sold by their estates or heirs.

 

[World Colonial]

On 12/16/2022 at 2:48 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Different coins might attract different types of investors, I don't know.  EC here owns the 1933 DE, it would be interesting if he chimed in with how long he intends to keep that coin and what might cause him to change his holding period.

Holders of a CSA coin might be very different from other U.S. Coin collectors and someone might want to hold that coins for decades as opposed to years.  I'm not sure how long Bob Simpson has been collecting, but he's been a seller for a few years.  Duckor started in the 1980's and unloaded everything about 30 years later.  Others of a bygone era had their collections sold by their estates or heirs.

 

I used the 1861 CSA half dollar and 1792 Getz pattern because both are (roughly) comparably scarce to many Federal issue rarities but usually much harder to buy.

Some US federal coins are quite hard to buy, like the 1822 half eagle.  Four owners in 115+ years.  The 1804 dollar which is or at least was considered a comparable coin has sold over 100 times in the same period, easily.  Adjusted for availability (8-1), still a lopsided owner preference.

I'd describe the longer holding period for the CSA half due to a much higher collectible substance, what the coin actually is as a collectible.  I presume the buyers don't buy it with the intent of losing money but it's not an "investment" coin either.  It's also a coin with potential "cross-over" appeal, in this instance to those interested in the War.  There isn't a single US federal coin I can think of that has actual "cross-over" appeal.  Same for the coins I collect.

[VKurtB]

On 12/16/2022 at 9:18 AM, World Colonial said:

Unlike forum participants, most collectors and definitely non-collector owners who I believe own a lot of coins (like my now deceased step-grandmother I previously profiled) don't see a need to spend money for grading, may not have even heard of TPG, and the coin won't get graded until sold, whenever that is.

Bravo! Absolutely CORRECT! I know the “Internet Division” of this hobby cannot imagine the truth that you write here, but it is so smack dab right in the mark that it’s scary. 
Your view on this is dictated by which circles you hang around in. For me, the Internet is numismatic “goofing off”. The real hobby is face to face. 

[zadok]

On 12/16/2022 at 3:02 PM, World Colonial said:

I used the 1861 CSA half dollar and 1792 Getz pattern because both are (roughly) comparably scarce to many Federal issue rarities but usually much harder to buy.

Some US federal coins are quite hard to buy, like the 1822 half eagle.  Four owners in 115+ years.  The 1804 dollar which is or at least was considered a comparable coin has sold over 100 times in the same period, easily.  Adjusted for availability (8-1), still a lopsided owner preference.

I'd describe the longer holding period for the CSA half due to a much higher collectible substance, what the coin actually is as a collectible.  I presume the buyers don't buy it with the intent of losing money but it's not an "investment" coin either.  It's also a coin with potential "cross-over" appeal, in this instance to those interested in the War.  There isn't a single US federal coin I can think of that has actual "cross-over" appeal.  Same for the coins I collect.

...agree...the 1792 half dime has some historical "cross-over" appeal, im just not sure exactly what it crosses over to?...there r so many historical attributions to the coin its diff to pin it down....

[VKurtB]

On 12/16/2022 at 11:49 AM, RWB said:

It's like in those nature documentaries about rutting elk. 

Pennsylvania whitetail deer season is on. Buck everywhere losing their es over some tail. 

[VKurtB]

On 12/16/2022 at 12:22 PM, Coinbuf said:

Almost exactly!

Because it is not about if the coin is interesting or not, it is all about the ego trip.   After the high of buying the coin and getting the "oohs" and "aahs" from other people there is no longer any reason to keep it, the high is gone and must be replaced with a new high, so the coin is sold and the whale looks for another trophy coin.

Now I've used whales and trophy coins in my verbiage, but collectors at all levels have this same experience, I know many collectors that are more interested in the hunt for a coin and are far less interested in keeping it afterwards.   Even I have experienced this to a degree, there is a high and feeling of satisfaction when you complete a series or find that perfect coin.   But then what, it gets placed into the bank vault and you may not even see it for months or years after, some are fine with that and wish to hold the coin, others are happy to have completed the task and sell the coin quickly to have the funds to find the next coin.

This behavior is not defined by the level of interest of that coin to the collecting population, only the continued interest to that one collector.   If his interest has been satisfied by the hunt then holding the coin may not be of interest.

Sounds like one of my past “theories of the case”. It’s not so much about having it; as preventing the other guy from having it. And that’s just a little psychopathic. 

[World Colonial]

On 12/16/2022 at 3:39 PM, zadok said:

...agree...the 1792 half dime has some historical "cross-over" appeal, im just not sure exactly what it crosses over to?...there r so many historical attributions to the coin its diff to pin it down....

Maybe it's one but don't have a clue either.  

The difference is that the coin is distinctive.  The problem is that it's really small.  

The 1848 "CAL" quarter eagle maybe is another one but even more of a stretch.

Other US federal (or coinage generally) isn't going to have "cross-over" appeal because non-collectors couldn't care less about coin dates, except as it impacts the price.  They aren't going to buy it except as an "investment", because if they "must" have it, they will buy a much cheaper one of another date and/or lower quality for a (tiny) fraction of the price.

[zadok]

On 12/16/2022 at 5:29 PM, World Colonial said:

Maybe it's one but don't have a clue either.  

The difference is that the coin is distinctive.  The problem is that it's really small.  

The 1848 "CAL" quarter eagle maybe is another one but even more of a stretch.

Other US federal (or coinage generally) isn't going to have "cross-over" appeal because non-collectors couldn't care less about coin dates, except as it impacts the price.  They aren't going to buy it except as an "investment", because if they "must" have it, they will buy a much cheaper one of another date and/or lower quality for a (tiny) fraction of the price.

...the "CAL" quarter eagle good example...try to buy a damaged one, prices far exceed what any collector would normally pay for a "hole filler"....

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/16/2022 at 1:15 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I didn't see this article years ago but a friend forwarded it to me (he's a nickel collector).

https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/pcgs-ngc-address-rising-population-for-rarities.htm

Just goes to show you what hidden hoards or unseen supply can do to prices !! 

___________________________________________________

The heads of the two leading third-party grading services (Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp.) traded words in an unusual public debate of sorts as they compete for market dominance.

On Jan. 17, NGC chairman Mark Salzberg published a letter on NGC’s website titled, “Salzberg Advises: Research PCGS Populations and Prices.” The letter addressed the NGC announcement at the end of 2016 that PCGS-certified coins would not be eligible for new inclusion in sets on the NGC Registry.

Salzberg wrote, “Over the last five years or so, I have noticed a perplexing trend at PCGS. There has been a dramatic increase in the grades assigned by PCGS for a wide range of coin types and, consequently, I believe this has caused an extraordinary reduction in the value of many PCGS-certified coins.”

Salzberg pointed to the 1912-S Liberty Head 5-cent piece, where the PCGS population in MS-66 has increased from eight in January 2012 to more than 50 today. Of course, when the population of a scarce coin moves up substantially, the prices are bound to fall.

Salzberg cited the sale of a PCGS MS-66 example in January 2012 for $37,375 compared with a sale of a comparably graded example at Heritage’s 2017 Florida United Numismatists show for $3,525. Salzberg noted, “This is a staggering loss of $33,850 (or 91%) of the coin’s value in five years,” before concluding, “How is it possible that eight 1912-S Liberty Nickels were graded PCGS MS 66 in the company’s first 25 years and 44 other examples were graded PCGS MS 66 in the last five years?”

PCGS President Don Willis responded two days later on the PCGS U.S. Coin Forum, writing, “We set the standard for third party grading 30 years ago. Every other grading service has attempted to copy that standard and has been playing a game of catch up for all those years.”

Addressing the population increase of some coins, Willis wrote, “We confess to being the most popular grading service. We process many more Vintage coins than NGC,” noting that populations rarely decrease as “there are always hidden collections, accumulations or hoards that come out.”

Willis pointed out that several original rolls of high-quality examples of 1912-S Liberty 5-cent coins have come to market in the past several years. He said, “These rolls were handled by some of the most knowledgeable dealers in the business. We are proud of the fact that these individuals, who have great insight in the coin market, chose PCGS to grade their coins.”

Salzberg, however, concluded, “An informed buyer is a smart buyer,” and advised collectors to research how a coin’s population and price have changed over time, before buying. The back-and-forth behind these two grading leaders is unusual as it provides a bit of transparency to these normally opaque matters that impact nearly all coin collectors.

Truth be told the unanticipated enmity has gotten so potent that there are members who refuse to cite their acronyms (including me on occasion).  I am not the least bit concerned.

I have just completed my date by date analyses of all Mint State 20-Franc gold roosters.  A few of my Top Pops, are no longer so.  But I am in too deep.  There's no turning back now.  I sold thirteen (13) gold coins and received a check just this morning).  I wish that gentleman, who extended every courtesy to me including providing me with a well-reasoned rationale, and his business all the best in the New Year!  I will be writing my review shortly.  For those who absolutely must know it was NorthEast Numismatics.

[World Colonial]

On 12/18/2022 at 7:47 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

I have just completed my date by date analyses of all Mint State 20-Franc gold roosters.  A few of my Top Pops, are no longer so.  But I am in too deep.  There's no turning back now.  

Evaluating the TPG data for a series like this one has limited if any value, unless the one performing the evaluation incorrectly believes that the population counts won't increase noticeably.

Unless you know that the vast majority of Roosters have been melted, there isn't any question that the actual supply across the grade distribution is a (big) multiple of the current counts.

The only reason it won't happen is because submitting a much larger number will be self-defeating.  It's the same reason I gave when commenting on post-1933 US coinage. Outside of maybe the "top pop" and occasionally one grade below it, the actual supply is almost always going to be a large to huge multiple to the current counts.  It's just that if most or every coin currently worth grading was/is submitted, my future prediction that most MS-66 and lower grades will sell for no more than the slab fee or nominal premiums to silver spot will definitely happen.  The future increase in the collector base will never be able to absorb the actual supply at current prices.

Here is an obvious example, the 1964 quarter:

Mintage: 560MM

NGC: 3941 graded, 1388 in MS-66, 92 in MS-67, and two in MS-68

PCGS: 3553 graded, 839 in MS-66, and 63 in MS-67

It's a coin which hardly circulated (due to the transition to clad) and was widely hoarded by the roll, even if this hoarding is only 1% of the mintage which I doubt.  Same concept applies to most prior dates and denominations, though the proportion differs.

Coin Facts shows a Heritage sale for $51 in 6/22.  There should easily be more than 10,000 in MS-66 for this coin, if it made sense to submit this many which it doesn't.  That's why I claim this coin should be worth a nominal premium to silver spot. 

It's a bullion coin and so are many others.

[Henri Charriere]

After giving every member's comment, including the OP'S rather provocative topical assertion, my complete and undivided attention and extended rumination, I have come to the inescapable conclusion that every participant who has weighed in thus far is correct.

Despite my meticulous note-taking, monitoring the galloping progression of certifications, more-than-just-rumored Rooster dumps----including something I alone suspect though I have nothing to substantiate my claim: NGC Set Registrants stalled at the original 1906/restrike 1907 demarcation line are forced to engage in overseas acquisitions of PCGS-slabbed dates and take chances at cross-grading them to complete their sets. Why were the two Roosters graded MS-68 by PCGS, cross-graded by NGC if not to appear in an NGC set Registry?  I rest my case.

As we speak, there are one hundred (100) 1910 Gold Roosters graded at MS-66.  This compares glaringly with the paltry six (6) awarded with the virtually impossible to get at any price, MS-67.... one more reason why I plan to devote my time to writing a treatise, entitled: "The Inexplicable Vagaries [Myth] of 'Fair Market Value.' "

Gentlemen, you have more than confirmed what I have only strongly believed up until now.  And, at this juncture, all I have to say is, based on your musings, you sure know how to hurt a guy.  

[World Colonial]

On 12/18/2022 at 11:23 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

As we speak, there are one hundred (100) 1910 Gold Roosters graded at MS-66.  This compares glaringly with the paltry six (6) awarded with the virtually impossible to get at any price, MS-67....

I presume you are referring to my reply and if so, what I wrote should not be a surprise to anyone who is familiar with the topic.  The only reasons for a different opinion are 1) They haven't looked at the data 2) They would rather believe the inflated perceptions of US collecting which intentionally exaggerate the significance of what everyone collects.  

When projecting "top pop" grade availability since it's an arbitrary rarity, there are other factors not included in my last post, such as the strike quality.  However, as a general principle, look at the examples below and anyone will immediately see how I reach my conclusion.  If these coins exist in these numbers regardless of the specific circumstances that led to it, it should be evident that the majority of US and European coins are a lot more available than is evident from the numbers any individual collector sees.

1853 Bolivia 1/4 sol 7 MS

Rhodesia 1977 1/2C 13 (nine MS)

Sarawak 1941H cent circulation strike 46 (37 MS)

Spain 1726M Real 28 MS (2 MS-68, 7 MS-67 and 9 MS-66)

Mexico 1751 1/2 Real 31 MS

Mexico 1861 MoCH 2R 175 MS (26 PL, 10 MS-67 and 53 MS-66)

1712 Peru 8E 37 MS, 

1821 Guatemala Real 369 MS (264 PL), most MS-64 to MS-66

1774 Bolivia 8R 91 MS (MS-66 top grade), 

No date (1542-1555) Mexico 4R 52 MS (up to MS-64); Many more in AU-55 or AU-58

1754 Mexico 8R 566 MS; 

1921 Canada 50C 27 total (11 MS), excluding ICCS.

First Jewish Revolt shekel 66-70CE 42 MS + 139 AU.  

[zadok]

On 12/19/2022 at 8:37 AM, World Colonial said:

I presume you are referring to my reply and if so, what I wrote should not be a surprise to anyone who is familiar with the topic.  The only reasons for a different opinion are 1) They haven't looked at the data 2) They would rather believe the inflated perceptions of US collecting which intentionally exaggerate the significance of what everyone collects.  

When projecting "top pop" grade availability since it's an arbitrary rarity, there are other factors not included in my last post, such as the strike quality.  However, as a general principle, look at the examples below and anyone will immediately see how I reach my conclusion.  If these coins exist in these numbers regardless of the specific circumstances that led to it, it should be evident that the majority of US and European coins are a lot more available than is evident from the numbers any individual collector sees.

1853 Bolivia 1/4 sol 7 MS

Rhodesia 1977 1/2C 13 (nine MS)

Sarawak 1941H cent circulation strike 46 (37 MS)

Spain 1726M Real 28 MS (2 MS-68, 7 MS-67 and 9 MS-66)

Mexico 1751 1/2 Real 31 MS

Mexico 1861 MoCH 2R 175 MS (26 PL, 10 MS-67 and 53 MS-66)

1712 Peru 8E 37 MS, 

1821 Guatemala Real 369 MS (264 PL), most MS-64 to MS-66

1774 Bolivia 8R 91 MS (MS-66 top grade), 

No date (1542-1555) Mexico 4R 52 MS (up to MS-64); Many more in AU-55 or AU-58

1754 Mexico 8R 566 MS; 

1921 Canada 50C 27 total (11 MS), excluding ICCS.

First Jewish Revolt shekel 66-70CE 42 MS + 139 AU.  

...absolutely correct, its diff to see the "big picture" of coin availability...the tpg censuses r only a snap shot in time n serve very limited info on true coin availability, if all coins were certified n data recorded almost all coin prices would drop except for the truly rare...ur assessment on the 1964 silver quarters excellent example n by comparison reflects accurately on many of the various registry sets for 20th cent coins both US n foreign...the 20fr french rooster n its various european counterparts r good examples for the gold issues as well, these coins r simply bullion coins with very little collectibility challenges except for condition rarity, the allure is mostly for vanity purposes...ease of completion n sense of satisfaction of completing a set or series especially in gold for modest premiums above melt value, but thats what the hobby provides to many collectors n its not a bad thing, the only bad thing is when reasonable prices get out of hand due to the limited knowledge that the tpg censuses provide...in many instances if funds r available many of these sets can be completed in a single day in ms66 grades with the exception of a few lower mintage examples, same for most of the US 20th cent series...if for many of these bullion series, the collector would just go back 20-30-50 years n attempt to collect the same series, pre-bullion, then they would realize the pure collecting challenges to completing a set or series.....

[World Colonial]

@zadok

I started looking at this topic for two reasons.  First, to compare the scarcity of better-known coins (mostly US) to those I collect(ed) to obtain a better idea of the feasibility of completing my sets.  Second, due to differences of opinion I continually had with South African based collectors who consistently exaggerated the scarcity of their coinage for the same reasons US collectors usually do.

South Africa has a TPG preference similar to the US (something most or none here will know), so the TPG counts are a lot more representative of actual availability versus practically all other non-US coinage.  The counts are usually at least somewhat low and definitely by US standards but have increased a lot since TPG became widespread around 2004.

As one example, the 1948 half crown has a mintage of 1600.  In Kaplan's 1950 price guide, it lists for 60 shillings (24X FV) or more than most prior dates, all but the 1931 and 1925.  This makes it evident that almost no one found it in circulation which isn't surprising.  If it were a US coin, at least 80% would still survive and mostly in AU-MS.  The last time I checked (8/22), NGC and PCGS recorded 73 MS or slightly more than 4%.  It's not "common" but a lot more available than they thought and probably something like 10% to 20% (at least) actually exist.  The big unknown is the large scale melting up to 1980.

Even my primary interest which is definitely hard to buy potentially has a lot more available than is apparent even in better quality than almost always seen.  It wasn't until I bought Yonaka's reference than I finally knew the mintages which are not low for the time for the 1/2r, 1R, and 8R.  Due to the availability of other coinage (mostly Liberty Seated in this instance), absent hoards I doubt there is a large number floating around but it's still potentially many more proportionately than what I or anyone else sees.

On your comments on 20th century US coinage, I'd only describe the 1933DE, 1913 LHN, 1927DE, and maybe some of the proof eagle and double eagle dates as hard to buy.  This is based upon my assumption of holding period.  A few of the Saints (like the 1929-1932) have low absolute survivors but due to the price, presumably can be bought mostly within a few months and almost certainly within one year.  Every other series (including all Barber denominations) can be bought in one day "nice", except when arbitrary quality criteria is applied.