The Case For $3,000 Gold 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/24/2024 at 3:02 PM, VKurtB said:

Gold has a reckoning coming. 

Define reckoning........

[VKurtB]

On 9/24/2024 at 2:36 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Define reckoning........

10% - 20% correction. Depending on the election outcome, an actual recession could make it worse. 

Edited Tuesday at 08:29 PM by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

On 9/24/2024 at 4:21 PM, VKurtB said:

10% - 20% correction. Depending on the election outcome, an actual recession could make it worse. 

Well, if that's true I have nothing to worry about. You're suggesting a drop in gold spot -- at worst -- of $500 and change.  I am still waaaay ahead as are most of the people in this hobby.  Irrespective of any election outcome, there are just too many things going on in the world right now, little of it good.  In times of volatility, people gravitate toward gold. Gold thrives in uncertain, unstable and unpredictable times. 

[cladking]

On 9/24/2024 at 3:21 PM, VKurtB said:

10% - 20% correction. Depending on the election outcome, an actual recession could make it worse. 

Gold should run up to $3050 before it has a 15% correction and stabilizes around $2750 for a couple years and then run up to the $3500 area.  

[Henri Charriere]

On 9/24/2024 at 6:14 PM, cladking said:

Gold should run up to $3050 before it has a 15% correction and stabilizes around $2750 for a couple years and then run up to the $3500 area.  

I am going to hold you to this because you self-described as an "expert" upthread.  🤣

[VKurtB]

On 9/24/2024 at 6:53 PM, Henri Charriere said:

I am going to hold you to this because you self-described as an "expert" upthread.  🤣

There is no such thing as an expert that can repeatedly predict asset prices; not @cladking, not @GoldFinger1969, not @RWB, not I, and not my broker/financial advisor. The predictor that can outperform a randomly tossed dart into WSJ listings is a rare thing indeed. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/24/2024 at 4:21 PM, VKurtB said:

10% - 20% correction. Depending on the election outcome, an actual recession could make it worse. 

Nothing precludes a 10-20% correction in gold's price and yet we remain in a bull market.  10% would be down to about $2,300 and 20% would be $2,150....sizeable, but something we saw in the 1970's.

Gold is "under accumulation" as per Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, one of the leading bond firms.  This means there are BUYERS underneath -- big buyers.  I doubt we go down 20% -- there are probably deep pockets that want in if we drop 10%.

In the 1970's, when gold moved up to $100....it didn't pay to panic and sell when it "crashed" down to $70. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/24/2024 at 6:14 PM, cladking said:

Gold should run up to $3050 before it has a 15% correction and stabilizes around $2750 for a couple years and then run up to the $3500 area.  

Could you be a bit more specific ?  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:49 PM, VKurtB said:

There is no such thing as an expert that can repeatedly predict asset prices; not @cladking, not @GoldFinger1969, not @RWB, not I, and not my broker/financial advisor. The predictor that can outperform a randomly tossed dart into WSJ listings is a rare thing indeed. 

At the same time, astute folks can tell if a move up is being done speculatively by hot money....or if an asset is under accumulation, with deep pockets and strong hands.

I think in a few years we will look back on $2,700 gold and say "Why didn't I buy more under $3K ??" 

[Henri Charriere]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:49 PM, VKurtB said:

There is no such thing as an expert that can repeatedly predict asset prices; not @cladking, not @GoldFinger1969, not @RWB, not I, and not my broker/financial advisor.... 

True, no more E. F. Sutton...

"My broker is E. F. Sutton and E. F. Sutton says..."  (c.1980)

(When E. F. Hutton talks, people listen.)

            

[rrantique]

On 9/24/2024 at 7:49 PM, VKurtB said:

There is no such thing as an expert that can repeatedly predict asset prices; not @cladking, not @GoldFinger1969, not @RWB, not I, and not my broker/financial advisor. The predictor that can outperform a randomly tossed dart into WSJ listings is a rare thing indeed. 

 

[cladking]

On 9/25/2024 at 10:04 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Could you be a bit more specific ?  

It's hard to say how long it will sit at $3500.  It depends on the government but i do expect them to keep wasting money so just a couple years.  

Of course we could always have a macroeconomic event to derail these things.  A bond collapse, severe downturn, or sharply higher inflation could all affect it.  Predicting such things is generally speaking irrelevant because the government will do whatever necessary to forestall it: Which is why gold is soaring.  They kick the can down the road, gut the value of everything, and scare the rest of the world out of owning dollars.  This move is the chickens coming home to roost.  Bonds will collapse when they scare Americans out of owning dollars.  

 

My track record on gold price prediction has been excellent since the last time it crossed $350.  

 

One way or the other we'll be over $10,000 by 2050 and it could play out much faster.  We have soaring debt, a failed educational system,. and almost no industrial base.  We make decisions based on purchased "science" and not what is best for the average American.

We'll probably get fusion power before too many years that might bail us out of some of our worst boondoggles  but it can't fix structural problems overnight.  If it comes very soon it could even lead to an expansionary deflation.  

The hardest thing to predict is the future so I usually try to keep it short term.  

 

[Zebo]

On 9/25/2024 at 7:49 PM, rrantique said:

 

Was it Peter Lynch in a Random Walk Down Wall Street that said a monkey throwing darts outperformed many of the investment brokers when it came to picking stocks? 

[Zebo]

Just touched 2,700!

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/25/2024 at 8:32 PM, cladking said:

One way or the other we'll be over $10,000 by 2050 and it could play out much faster.  We have soaring debt, a failed educational system,. and almost no industrial base.  We make decisions based on purchased "science" and not what is best for the average American.  We'll probably get fusion power before too many years that might bail us out of some of our worst boondoggles  but it can't fix structural problems overnight.  If it comes very soon it could even lead to an expansionary deflation.  The hardest thing to predict is the future so I usually try to keep it short term.  

My bullishness on gold has been predicated on simple supply and demand.  Supply is getting tougher to come by....demand is going UP from Central Banks, Sovereigh Wealth Funds, and retail buying from folks who don't want BitCoin/Crypto.

It's a reversal of the 1980-2000 period. 

I do NOT believe that apocalpytic forecasts based on debt are really important to gold.  Our debt went up a ton from 1980-2000 and yet gold got cut in  half.  There are too many variables (geopolitics, financial, inflation, etc.) that impact gold's price.  It took 30 years for a 3rd-rate economy like Greece's to go under from socialist policies.  A global reserve superpower will take far far longer.

 

Edited Thursday at 04:13 PM by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

Very bullish prognostications. What enquiring minds want to know is why the outcome of the election in November was quietly taken off the table.  If dwelling on it is against Board guidelines -- and I have a sneaky suspicion it is -- I can definitely see why.

Carry on, ladies and gentlemen!  

[cladking]

On 9/26/2024 at 11:12 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

My bullishness on gold has been predicated on simple supply and demand.  Supply is getting tougher to come by....demand is going UP from Central Banks, Sovereigh Wealth Funds, and retail buying from folks who don't want BitCoin/Crypto.

It's a reversal of the 1980-2000 period. 

I do NOT believe that apocalpytic forecasts based on debt are really important to gold.  Our debt went up a ton from 1980-2000 and yet gold got cut in  half.  There are too many variables (geopolitics, financial, inflation, etc.) that impact gold's price.  It took 30 years for a 3rd-rate economy like Greece's to go under from socialist policies.  A global reserve superpower will take far far longer.

 

I think the demand is being sparked by two things; one is that people see the mountainous debt and want to own gold and this is one of the reasons central banks are buying gold.  The other is that the world has seen the US as fickle as well as policy and the lack of US concern about property rights with widespread confiscation of assets both at home and abroad.  This makes holding and trading dollars riskier.  Until a viable currency arises to replace the dollar gold is a handy place to store money.  

Gold is hardly in short supply and there's a lot more every year.  There are many storehouses packed to the rafters with gold and governments are trying to shoehorn more into them.  

On the other hand there are no piles of silver anywhere.  It's unusual to get even 100 million ounces under one roof.   Not even producers maintain stockpiles.  Every year there is less silver in the world because it is consumed and dozens of new industrial uses arise.  Most of these uses require very little silver but in aggregate they already consume more than mine production.  Warm temperature superconductivity and fusion will most probably require silver as well.  Each cruise missile consumes a quarter ton of silver as propellant and a few people make a lot of money making armaments.  These are the same few people who are running government through purchased science and "lobbying".    

Edited 23 hours ago by cladking

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/26/2024 at 7:16 AM, Zebo said:

Was it Peter Lynch in a Random Walk Down Wall Street that said a monkey throwing darts outperformed many of the investment brokers when it came to picking stocks? 

Burton Malkiel.  

Peter Lynch is one of the few mutual fund managers who consistently outperformed the S&P 500.

[Zebo]

On 9/27/2024 at 1:45 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Burton Malkiel.  

Peter Lynch is one of the few mutual fund managers who consistently outperformed the S&P 500.

I still have Lynch’s book, among many other financial books, in my bookcase. It sits right next to Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor book. Both were good reads.