The Case For $3,000 Gold 1 1

[World Colonial]

On 4/28/2023 at 2:08 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm not a silver hawker or perma-bull.  Most people who deal in PMs -- not all but most -- are always bullish even though as investments it does NOT pay to recommend their purchase for long periods of time (not the case with stocks and bonds quite as much).

I wasn't referring to you.  I was referring to how "fundamentals" are generically used to rationalize a position.

[World Colonial]

On 4/28/2023 at 1:52 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If the price of gold goes up substantially, it's dragging up any gold coin that trades as bullion and lots of others that are quasi-bullion, quasi-numismatic.

If gold goes to $3,000 then an MS-65 generic Saint will probably cost close to $4,000.

Yes, that's for common widgets with low or relatively low premiums.

Lower if any correlation for the common date US $20 Assay Office Territorial gold.  I haven't charted it, just an observation.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/28/2023 at 3:49 PM, World Colonial said:

I wasn't referring to you.  I was referring to how "fundamentals" are generically used to rationalize a position.

Lot of people who are really smart on coins in general are absolutely clueless when it comes to gold as an "investment" thinking that it's a winner because they cherrypicked 1966-80 vs. stocks and bonds.

They never heard of rolling time periods !!! 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

The April 17 STREETWISE commentary by BARRON'S Jack Hough (a funny guy) notes that Wells Fargo did a piece on commodity supercycles and they date this one to starting in March 2020.  Usually prices go up about 250% and so far this has been about 80%.  250% applied to gold would be $3,500 - $5,000 depending on your starting point.

There have been 6 previous bull supercycles for commodities going back to 1791 (!).  They usually last 9-24 years.  They date the last one from 1999 to 2008 (some topped out a few years later) with oil going up 15-fold, cooper up 8-fold, gold up 7-fold, and foodstuffs also appreciating nicely.

[World Colonial]

On 4/29/2023 at 4:12 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The April 17 STREETWISE commentary by BARRON'S Jack Hough (a funny guy) notes that Wells Fargo did a piece on commodity supercycles and they date this one to starting in March 2020.  Usually prices go up about 250% and so far this has been about 80%.  250% applied to gold would be $3,500 - $5,000 depending on your starting point.

There have been 6 previous bull supercycles for commodities going back to 1791 (!).  They usually last 9-24 years.  They date the last one from 1999 to 2008 (some topped out a few years later) with oil going up 15-fold, cooper up 8-fold, gold up 7-fold, and foodstuffs also appreciating nicely.

This would be consistent with my claim that most Americans are destined to become poorer or a lot poorer.  Only a small minority will be on the receiving side of that.

Everyone else will be paying "through the nose".

[zadok]

On 4/29/2023 at 11:15 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Lot of people who are really smart on coins in general are absolutely clueless when it comes to gold as an "investment" thinking that it's a winner because they cherrypicked 1966-80 vs. stocks and bonds.

They never heard of rolling time periods !!! 

 

...hmmmm i guess u r calling me clueless again but my 1960s gold is still outpacing my stock portfolio even after factoring in all the dividends...there is an old saying buy the best u can buy n live with it till u die...sort of like, buy the best house on the street....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/30/2023 at 7:44 AM, zadok said:

...hmmmm i guess u r calling me clueless again but my 1960s gold is still outpacing my stock portfolio even after factoring in all the dividends...there is an old saying buy the best u can buy n live with it till u die...sort of like, buy the best house on the street....

You my friend are the exception.  But for most people who can't buy numismatics a basic diversified portfolio is best for them.

But I note that some of these "gold bugs" are not even justifying gold or PMs but cherry-picking a single time period when gold did fantastic and comparing that to stocks.  Totally biased and unfair.

I wouldn't mind if they said they were more COMFORATABLE with gold/PMs -- but they aren't citing anything that would justify gold over long periods of time for most individuals.  Just a single cherry-picked time period.

Edited April 30, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 4/30/2023 at 10:38 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But I note that some of these "gold bugs" are not even justifying gold or PMs but cherry-picking a single time period when gold did fantastic and comparing that to stocks.  Totally biased and unfair.

I wouldn't mind if they said they were more COMFORATABLE with gold/PMs -- but they aren't citing anything that would justify gold over long periods of time for most individuals.  Just a single cherry-picked time period.

The worst "gold bug" I ever encountered was on the South Africa BoB Forum.  I have never encountered anyone else who made such outlandish implied price forecasts and used such irrelevant ridiculous "evidence" to "support" their claims.

In one thread, he was double posting, as both himself and using a second troll ID.  In one post, he implied not using fiat currency at all.  I asked him if he had a bank account, used credit, received his income in gold and silver, and bartered.  The response?  Crickets.  The conversation was completely absurd.

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/26/2022 at 8:42 PM, World Colonial said:

People buy (or sell) gold (or anything else) because they are optimistic or pessimistic, period....

I could not care less about ups and downs or being optimistic or pessimistic.  I have a "complete" set registry to "upgrade," an unattainable goal whether gold is $300. or $3,000. I am goal-oriented. FMV is of no consequence; availability and fortuitous timing are the only things that count in this endeavor.  Philosophically, my net worth, as a single individual with no heirs, is zero because I do not derive a penny from its ownership whatever its value, and death is of no moment to me. [How does that work anyway?  You save for your retirement, you retire but don't dare touch your assets, expire suddenly--and then go on a spending spree?]  Or worse, you're Whittaker, a successful W.Va. businessman worth $17M, win the $315M Powerball, spring for the $113M cash option, back in 2002--and presumably die penniless leaving death, overdoses and destruction behind. Huh?  Any idea how many Yap stone coins you could have had for that money?

Now, does this mean I do not enjoy the conversation? Not all all. Carry on, gentlemen!  🤣

[Henri Charriere]

Goodbye, Republic National Bank.  Hello, JPMorgan Chase.

Old timers here may recall all the hoopla attending the introduction of the South African 1-oz Kreugerrand in the late 1960's at the bank on Fifth Avenue hard by the New York Public Library's SE corner.  With the lack of any real competition, sales of the Kreugerrands soared. Then President Reagan ordered their importation banned due to prevailing apartheid policies.  Many dealers and collectors mistook this to mean ownership of them was illegal.  The ban lasted 10 years during which time the U.S. Mint introduced its own line of gold coins, including fractionals. In my mind's eye, the bank never recovered and today's news confirms it has been closed and was bought by Chase. The Kreugerrand is still being minted and has even put out a silver version,as has the U.S., but in bullion circles its profile has shrunken considerably.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/1/2023 at 9:02 AM, Henri Charriere said:

The Kreugerrand is still being minted and has even put out a silver version,as has the U.S., but in bullion circles its profile has shrunken considerably.

I think it was the only regularly minted gold coin before 1973, right ?

South Africa was a major gold producer at that time, and nobody else was minting/selling gold coins in bulk before the mid-1970's or later.

[zadok]

On 5/1/2023 at 12:34 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think it was the only regularly minted gold coin before 1973, right ?

South Africa was a major gold producer at that time, and nobody else was minting/selling gold coins in bulk before the mid-1970's or later.

...austrian/hungarian 100 corona were players at the same time...ive still got a few rolls i bought then, premium over spot was just a few dollars less than the krugs....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/1/2023 at 9:02 AM, Henri Charriere said:

Goodbye, Republic National Bank. 

First Republic Bank was RNB ?  They just modified the name ?  I remember the RNB headquarters at 5th and 40th....HSBC (who I worked for) now occupies the space.  I think HSBC bought RNB before I came on board. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 5/1/2023 at 3:05 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

First Republic Bank was RNB ?  They just modified the name ?  I remember the RNB headquarters at 5th and 40th....HSBC (who I worked for) now occupies the space.  I think HSBC bought RNB before I came on board. 

...isnt HSBC ownership located in china?....

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/1/2023 at 1:11 PM, zadok said:

...austrian/hungarian 100 corona were players at the same time...ive still got a few rolls i bought then, premium over spot was just a few dollars less than the krugs....

The only coronas I know are the gold brewed ones popular with Mexicans.

The Kreugerrands seemed to always carry a heftier premium.

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/1/2023 at 3:05 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

First Republic Bank was RNB ?  They just modified the name ?  I remember the RNB headquarters at 5th and 40th....HSBC (who I worked for) now occupies the space.  I think HSBC bought RNB before I came on board. 

The permutations and combinations, acquisitions and mergers spread out all over the country are endless. HSBC acquired RNY for 9-billion USD.

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/1/2023 at 3:09 PM, zadok said:

...isnt HSBC ownership located in china?....

A reliable old time English-speaking rickshaw [puller] told me the characters for HSBC stand for "Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Company" which opened sometime in the 1860's.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/1/2023 at 3:09 PM, zadok said:

...isnt HSBC ownership located in china?....

British/Hong Kong, I believe.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/1/2023 at 3:43 PM, Henri Charriere said:

HSBC acquired RNY for 9-billion USD.

I didn't get my cut......

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/2/2023 at 1:01 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I didn't get my cut......

Well then there is little to be gained by saying they also assumed $92B in deposits, about $173B in loans and $30B in securities. I believe shareholders, etc., lost everything.  The only surprise to me was finding out Chase, and not Citibank, is the country's largest and wealthiest bank.  Sometimes I get too caught up with collectors wringing their hands over oddities, curiosities and-- I refuse to recognize the widely-accepted term "errors") flaws which, though interesting, do nothing to recognize the fact that when metal meets metal at high speed and great pressure, irregularities are bound to occur. 

[zadok]

On 5/2/2023 at 1:01 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

British/Hong Kong, I believe.

...no longer british....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/2/2023 at 4:48 AM, Henri Charriere said:

The only surprise to me was finding out Chase, and not Citibank, is the country's largest and wealthiest bank. 

Chase has been bigger ever since the 2000's.  Much larger today by deposits or assets or even market capitalization.  Citibank got diluted to hell back in 2008-09 whereas JPM really didn't need TARP funds.

JPM stock has recovered and hit new highs since then; Citi is 1/10th the price level back then.  Some bailout !! 

[World Colonial]

On 5/2/2023 at 8:38 AM, zadok said:

...no longer british....

It's based in London and has been for years.  Depends upon what you mean by "no longer British", as it's a public company and I have no idea who are the primary shareholders now.  Hong Kong and China are and have been its most important markets. 

[World Colonial]

On 5/2/2023 at 10:20 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Chase has been bigger ever since the 2000's.  Much larger today by deposits or assets or even market capitalization.  Citibank got diluted to hell back in 2008-09 whereas JPM really didn't need TARP funds.

JPM stock has recovered and hit new highs since then; Citi is 1/10th the price level back then.  Some bailout !! 

I'd describe Citicorp as a quasi-zombie bank.  It's doing ok now but I consider its franchise weak.  Believe they have drastically shrunk their global footprint.

[GoldFinger1969]

Hit $2,076 in AH...could be a new ATH...certainly knocking on the door. 

[Fenntucky Mike]

As I've said previously, I'm not waiting for gold to fall. I'll buy those coins that are pertinent to my collections but neither am I going out and buying bullion willy-nilly. I'll be staying in my lanes. 

[zadok]

On 5/3/2023 at 8:06 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Hit $2,076 in AH...could be a new ATH...certainly knocking on the door. 

...knock knock...who's there?...auric, is ms galore home?....

[GoldFinger1969]

FYI....Need to hit $2,068 on a closing and $2,090 on an intra-day basis to set new highs. 

[Tyrock]

I've been involved in numismatics since 1978 and I've seen gold prices discussed since that time. I remember when during the Hunt brothers fiasco, the question was when gold would hit $1,000.00 an ounce. All I know is that timing the price of gold is like timing the stock market, bad idea. An interesting point is that people in Switzerland are not turning to bullion like others are despite a problem with the Credit Suisse Bank and other related issues. I'm sure crypto currency has also been mentioned in these posts. My two kids probably know more about crypto than gold despite growing up with a coin collecting father. And no, neither one has an interest in numismatics though my daughter wants to retain a few pieces as keepsakes. I actually appreciate that sentiment.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/4/2023 at 12:22 PM, Tyrock said:

I remember when during the Hunt brothers fiasco, the question was when gold would hit $1,000.00 an ounce. All I know is that timing the price of gold is like timing the stock market, bad idea.

Like I said, the longer gold just "lays there" the more time for me and all of you to accumulate. 

Gold had gone up 20-fold in 10 years when it hit $700-$800.  That was already a HUGE move.  It took 20 years off....then went up 6-fold in 10 years....then took another 12 years off (so far) and is up 70% from the recent lows but just 15% from the 2011 highs.

When gold really moves, it will be moving $150-$200 in a day and leading off the news shows.

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by GoldFinger1969