The Case For $3,000 Gold 1 1

[Zebo]

On 10/5/2024 at 11:19 AM, VKurtB said:

I happened to have Fox Business on the tele this morning, and Barron's Weekend Roundtable was on. They got on the topic of having gold in your portfolio. Five commentators. They were UNANIMOUS that there should be NO GOLD in a responsible portfolio, certainly not from here

On that same channel, there are many that say gold does belong in everyone’s portfolio. There are also those, who are not gold enthusiasts, who say they expect a 30-40% drop in the stock market and those that say we will continue to be in a Bull market for the foreseeable future. You have so called expert opinions on both sides. Time will tell. 

Just saw this headline:
Goldman Sachs raises gold price target to $2,900/oz by early 2025 on sovereign buying, fund flows.

 

 

 

[cladking]

On 10/5/2024 at 10:19 AM, VKurtB said:

I happened to have Fox Business on the tele this morning, and Barron's Weekend Roundtable was on. They got on the topic of having gold in your portfolio. Five commentators. They were UNANIMOUS that there should be NO GOLD in a responsible portfolio, certainly not from here. Face it. Gold "investors" (actually speculators) are a cult. Unfortunately the intersection set between coin collectors and that cult is significant. That doesn't mean you should be expecting me at your cult meetings. Besides, I'll be on a plane flying somewhere.

 

This is the strongest case I've ever seen for buying gold. Imagine how much demand would materialize if millions upon millions of people including who knows how many billionaires suddenly decided that there was too much risk in the market!!!

I think you misunderstand my thinking on gold.  I hope and pray I will never need any gold and it will be the last thing I sell.  I bought old Gems and modern gold made in tiny numbers as well as any oddball thing I could lay my hands on just in case gold went even further down from where I bought it.  I'm sure I can get a premium on some of it if gold tanked.  

Gold is the only asset that has always survived a panic.  When you must leave where you are they won't take cash, checks, or credit cards.  They will only want gold.  People, all people, should stay where they are and work to prevent catastrophe but iff that fails you'll need gold.  

[VKurtB]

On 10/6/2024 at 8:51 AM, cladking said:

 

This is the strongest case I've ever seen for buying gold. Imagine how much demand would materialize if millions upon millions of people including who knows how many billionaires suddenly decided that there was too much risk in the market!!!

I think you misunderstand my thinking on gold.  I hope and pray I will never need any gold and it will be the last thing I sell.  I bought old Gems and modern gold made in tiny numbers as well as any oddball thing I could lay my hands on just in case gold went even further down from where I bought it.  I'm sure I can get a premium on some of it if gold tanked.  

Gold is the only asset that has always survived a panic.  When you must leave where you are they won't take cash, checks, or credit cards.  They will only want gold.  People, all people, should stay where they are and work to prevent catastrophe but iff that fails you'll need gold.  

No, not gold. Lead, coated with copper, or not, mounted in brass.

[VKurtB]

On 10/6/2024 at 8:51 AM, cladking said:

 

This is the strongest case I've ever seen for buying gold. Imagine how much demand would materialize if millions upon millions of people including who knows how many billionaires suddenly decided that there was too much risk in the market!!!

I think you misunderstand my thinking on gold.  I hope and pray I will never need any gold and it will be the last thing I sell.  I bought old Gems and modern gold made in tiny numbers as well as any oddball thing I could lay my hands on just in case gold went even further down from where I bought it.  I'm sure I can get a premium on some of it if gold tanked.  

Gold is the only asset that has always survived a panic.  When you must leave where you are they won't take cash, checks, or credit cards.  They will only want gold.  People, all people, should stay where they are and work to prevent catastrophe but iff that fails you'll need gold.  

This screed is the ridiculous garbage that keeps gold overpriced. 1) There isn't going to be a societal breakdown, PERIOD. 2) If there ever is, gold WILL ABSOLUTELY NOT BE LEGAL TENDER, NOT EVER AGAIN, and 3) Only a infinitesimal number of people own ANY gold at all or even know its value, and they WILL TAKE YOURS if they need to by means of the above. Gold doesn't make you the "winner" in a societal breakdown, it makes you the first target.

For me, such a panic is a DEATH SENTENCE. If I can't get my medicines, I will be dead within two weeks, and that is a stone cold certainty. It makes planning financially for a panic a little silly, doesn't it?

Edited October 6 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 10/6/2024 at 7:06 AM, Zebo said:

On that same channel, there are many that say gold does belong in everyone’s portfolio. There are also those, who are not gold enthusiasts, who say they expect a 30-40% drop in the stock market and those that say we will continue to be in a Bull market for the foreseeable future. You have so called expert opinions on both sides. Time will tell. 

Just saw this headline:
Goldman Sachs raises gold price target to $2,900/oz by early 2025 on sovereign buying, fund flows.

 

 

 

Yes, I realize that the hosts have goldbugs on as well. They are instantly identifiable by the first words out of their mouths as nutcases. What you need to show me is an analyst who isn't all about gold all the time, 24/7/365, who advises his clients to buy gold from these levels. I can't find one. I know of several who are advising gold mining stocks, but not holding the metal per se. Those recommending that are an exclusive club of club members / cult members that never seems to grow or shrink, and seemingly can't talk about anything else.

Edited October 6 by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 10/6/2024 at 10:40 AM, VKurtB said:

Yes, I realize that the hosts have goldbugs on as well. They are instantly identifiable by the first words out of their mouths as nutcases. What you need to show me is an analyst who isn't all about gold all the time, 24/7/365, who advises his clients to buy gold from these levels. I can't find one. I know of several who are advising gold mining stocks, but not holding the metal per se. Those recommending that are an exclusive club of club members / cult members that never seems to grow or shrink, and seemingly can't talk about anything else.

Some gold miners are short so much gold they'd lose money if the price increased too much.  

[cladking]

On 10/6/2024 at 10:31 AM, VKurtB said:

This screed is the ridiculous garbage that keeps gold overpriced. 1) There isn't going to be a societal breakdown, PERIOD. 2) If there ever is, gold WILL ABSOLUTELY NOT BE LEGAL TENDER, NOT EVER AGAIN, and 3) Only a infinitesimal number of people own ANY gold at all or even know its value, and they WILL TAKE YOURS if they need to by means of the above. Gold doesn't make you the "winner" in a societal breakdown, it makes you the first target.

For me, such a panic is a DEATH SENTENCE. If I can't get my medicines, I will be dead within two weeks, and that is a stone cold certainty. It makes planning financially for a panic a little silly, doesn't it?

If very few people own gold then this is a prescription for higher prices.  You buy when others are selling and sell when they are buying.  This applies to everything.

Gold probably won't ever be legal tender again because it is unsound as money but it still has value and as the dollar is destroyed there could be a transitionary gold backed currency issued by some foreign government(s) to take its place.  

No one can see the future because it will be predicated on events that haven't happened yet.  But I can still predict confidently that gold will be valuable for the foreseeable future.  Maybe more valuable, maybe less.  And it will most probably sell at $3500 per ounce at some point before it becomes nearly worthless.  I don't know but I've been real lucky predicting gold movements for a very long time.  As long as our government continues to tax and spend and nothing implodes it will go higher at least for a while.  

[VKurtB]

On 10/6/2024 at 3:29 PM, cladking said:

the dollar is destroyed there could be a transitionary gold backed currency issued by some foreign government(s) to take its place.  

Yeah, I saw the movie Civil War on Apple TV+ too. It describes a world in which California and Texas secede from the union when a corrupt United States government backed, supposedly (some states ignored it) by the other 48, went rogue. In one scene a vehicle with 4 journalists trying to outflank the front, needed gasoline in Western Pennsylvania. The station wasn’t accepting U.S. dollars. They paid in Canadian dollars. Anyway, spoiler alert. The California and Texas rebels overran the White House and killed the President. Shot him in the head while begging not to be killed, right in the Oval Office. 
 

Also, note, there ARE NO GOLD-BACKED CURRENCIES, anywhere in the world. They’re ALL “fiat”. The thing that makes a currency valuable is how badass the issuing country is. Nothing more, nothing less. 

Edited October 6 by VKurtB

[Zebo]

On 10/6/2024 at 5:20 PM, VKurtB said:

Also, note, there ARE NO GOLD-BACKED CURRENCIES, anywhere in the world. They’re ALL “fiat”. The thing that makes a currency valuable is how badass the issuing country is. Nothing more, nothing less. 

Not quite right. Enter the:

Updated Apr 9, 2024, 12:13pm EDT

This month, the Central Bank of Zimbabwe launched a new gold-based currency, the first gold-based currency from a government since Richard Nixon effectively ended the world gold standard system in 1971.

Zimbabwe has introduced a new gold-backed currency called ZiG - the name stands for "Zimbabwe Gold". The banknotes come in denominations of 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 200 ZiG.

chance of success in my opinion = ZERO!

But then again, fiat or hot air backed money also has its problems.
 

 

[VKurtB]

On 10/6/2024 at 5:30 PM, Zebo said:

Not quite right. Enter the:

Updated Apr 9, 2024, 12:13pm EDT

This month, the Central Bank of Zimbabwe launched a new gold-based currency, the first gold-based currency from a government since Richard Nixon effectively ended the world gold standard system in 1971.

Zimbabwe has introduced a new gold-backed currency called ZiG - the name stands for "Zimbabwe Gold". The banknotes come in denominations of 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 200 ZiG.

chance of success in my opinion = ZERO!

But then again, fiat or hot air backed money also has its problems.
 

 

All you need to know about this is the second bullet point:

This is Zimbabwe's sixth attempt at a new currency since 2008.
 

Zimbabwe has a problem they cannot get away from - socialism. They print to their population’s “needs”, not their productivity. Any metals backed currency ABSOLUTELY MUST completely eliminate all traces of socialism in its society, AND be prepared for the chronically unproductive to starve. 

Edited October 6 by VKurtB

[Zebo]

On 10/6/2024 at 6:36 PM, VKurtB said:

All you need to know about this is the second bullet point:

This is Zimbabwe's sixth attempt at a new currency since 2008.
 

Zimbabwe has a problem they cannot get away from - socialism. They print to their population’s “needs”, not their productivity. Any metals backed currency ABSOLUTELY MUST completely eliminate all traces of socialism in its society, AND be prepared for the chronically unproductive to starve. 

They are in big trouble and have been for many years. Not a shining example to be sure. 

[Fenntucky Mike]

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/6/2024 at 8:06 AM, Zebo said:

On that same channel, there are many that say gold does belong in everyone’s portfolio. There are also those, who are not gold enthusiasts, who say they expect a 30-40% drop in the stock market and those that say we will continue to be in a Bull market for the foreseeable future. You have so called expert opinions on both sides. 

Gold to me is disaster insurance.  But even that is somewhat complicated.

I do know that nobody will remember me for gifting them shares of a mutual fund, stocks, or bonds when I pass on.  But a nice Double Eagle (maybe even an MCMVII HR ? ) would be something I think would be then passed on to future generations as opposed to a financial asset.

[VKurtB]

On 10/7/2024 at 10:13 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Gold to me is disaster insurance.

I don’t need, or perhaps can’t use, disaster insurance of the type @GoldFinger1969 describes. My remaining life expectancy is likely 5-8 years, according to my physicians. If one looks at the YouTube videos that pop up after the Pawn Stars video, there is a professional metals dealer in there who says quite negative things about stacking bullion. He says you can nearly never get even spot when selling gold or silver. And when buying, you pay a premium OVER spot. It makes no sense.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/7/2024 at 12:05 PM, VKurtB said:

I don’t need, or perhaps can’t use, disaster insurance of the type @GoldFinger1969 describes. My remaining life expectancy is likely 5-8 years, according to my physicians. If one looks at the YouTube videos that pop up after the Pawn Stars video, there is a professional metals dealer in there who says quite negative things about stacking bullion. He says you can nearly never get even spot when selling gold or silver. And when buying, you pay a premium OVER spot. It makes no sense.

Kurt, I hope your docs are wrong and you get your money's worth out of Social Security with many many more years of checks.  

Back in 1980, both the gold and currency markets traded about $1 billion daily.  Today, gold trades about $60 billion and the currency market is about $7 trillion daily.  Clearly, when folks want "insurance" they hold dollar-denominated assets, mostly Treasuries and Agencies.

While I could see gold maybe doubling or tripling in a short period of time, for people with substantial assets they would need a huge quantity of gold and/or an increase in the price by 20-fold, Bitcoin-like, to make a difference. 

Money markets, Treasuries, and CDs are today's "disaster insurance" for diversified portfolios.

Edited October 7 by GoldFinger1969