The Case For $3,000 Gold 1 1

[cladking]

On 10/1/2024 at 9:23 PM, VKurtB said:

Ahhh yes, the “it’s always been this way” argument. Well, darn it, it ain’t that way any more! At the end of World War II, we foolishly tried to create a hybrid gold standard, referred to as Bretton Woods, a disastrous system of epic proportions that never was fully implemented. Richard Nixon brought us to our senses and closed the gold exchange window forever. Gold has no business being a monetary instrument of ANY measure. 

Now days there are many quadrillions, if not quintillions, of dollars and other fiat currency backing not only the actual economy but also reserve banking, crypto, and debt.   If the economic policy and procedures were as they were when banking was invented gold would be closer to $3,000,000 per ounce than to $3,000.  Obviously though if money were backed in gold there would be no such thing as derivatives and crypto would be seen as the massive waste of resources.

 

Gold made a terrible backing for currency in the past and would be very little better today.  Even though mining and consumption can be predicted there would still be supply or demand shocks that would rattle the economy.  There is no possible backing for currency that is stable but "full faith and credit of the government" is a clue to a currency that would be more sound and less easily counterfeited by government.  Essentially economies could be incorporated and each dollar is a share that pays dividends as the government inflates.   Inflating the currency becomes much more obvious when the number of shares outstanding increases.  

There's just no way to deal with human greed that is completely fair to everyone but enshrining Greed as the ideal and only good as we have done has led to this disaster.  

[VKurtB]

Gold is a commodity, … and ONLY THAT. It is fundamentally no different from pork bellies, frozen orange juice concentrate, Brent North Sea oil, aluminum, or even unleaded gasoline. Any “special” status for that one commodity is a relic of long past history or the fever dreams of its traders. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/2/2024 at 12:45 PM, VKurtB said:

Gold is a commodity, … and ONLY THAT. It is fundamentally no different from pork bellies, frozen orange juice concentrate, Brent North Sea oil, aluminum, or even unleaded gasoline. Any “special” status for that one commodity is a relic of long past history or the fever dreams of its traders. 

Sorry, you can debate the demand and supply and price...but don't say that gold should be the same price as every other commodity.   Or that every other commodity should be all equal in price.

 

[Henri Charriere]

On 10/1/2024 at 10:23 PM, VKurtB said:

.... Richard Nixon brought us to our senses and closed the gold exchange window forever....

🐓:  And he was also the person responsible for opening the doors to, er, uh, RED China and the tsunami of counterfeits which ensued in the wake of the Watergate scandal.  

Q.A.:  Arguably, yes!  

 

 

 

[cladking]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:45 AM, VKurtB said:

Gold is a commodity, … and ONLY THAT. It is fundamentally no different from pork bellies, frozen orange juice concentrate, Brent North Sea oil, aluminum, or even unleaded gasoline. Any “special” status for that one commodity is a relic of long past history or the fever dreams of its traders. 

Other commodities don't directly respond to changes in the perception of money, governance, and war.  

[VKurtB]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:48 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The Bretton Woods arrangement worked pretty good for a few decades after WW II, which is all that mattered.

Bretton Woods never worked - not even for a day.

[VKurtB]

On 10/2/2024 at 1:14 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Sorry, you can debate the demand and supply and price...but don't say that gold should be the same price as every other commodity.   Or that every other commodity should be all equal in price.

 

Never said anything of the sort. 

[Henri Charriere]

🐓  :  I tell you ol' Kurt is a playa, sho-nuff, sho-nuf!

Q.A.:  Sure is.  A little levity now and again -- Yes, even on a coin forum, never hurt anyone. Kind of hard to win an argument with sound bites, but who's keeping score?

Carry on gentlemen!  

Man, Iove this place!  🤣

Edited Thursday at 12:44 AM by Henri Charriere
Routine die polishing

[VKurtB]

On 10/2/2024 at 7:43 PM, Henri Charriere said:

🐓  :  I tell you ol' Kurt is a playa, sho-nuff, sho-nuf!

Q.A.:  Sure is.  A little levity now and again -- Yes, even on a coin forum, never hurt anyone. Kind of hard to win an argument with sound bites, but who's keeping score?

Carry on gentlemen!  

Man, Iove this place!  🤣

I’m cheating. The topic of my undergraduate thesis was, “Why gold should never again be regarded as money.” Franklin & Marshall College, 1977. We had one goldbug professor in the Econ Department who tried to move me off my position. He failed. I got the ‘A’.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:21 PM, VKurtB said:

I’m cheating. The topic of my undergraduate thesis was, “Why gold should never again be regarded as money.” Franklin & Marshall College, 1977. We had one goldbug professor in the Econ Department who tried to move me off my position. He failed. I got the ‘A’.

Well, if you think gold is headed back to $35 or even $500....I'm giving you an "F" !!! 

[VKurtB]

On 10/3/2024 at 10:13 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well, if you think gold is headed back to $35 or even $500....I'm giving you an "F" !!! 

“Should” is one thing. “Is gonna” is quite another. The rational often lose to the irrational, in markets. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 10/3/2024 at 11:16 AM, VKurtB said:

“Should” is one thing. “Is gonna” is quite another. The rational often lose to the irrational, in markets. 

I decree that nothing will happen to gold without my knowledge and consent!  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/3/2024 at 11:16 AM, VKurtB said:

“Should” is one thing. “Is gonna” is quite another. The rational often lose to the irrational, in markets. 

For whatever reasons.....rational (mostly)...irrational (a few insufficiently_thoughtful_persons).....gold IS going higher.   Much higher. 

Just as gold was artificially suppressed from 1933-1971 -- foreshadowing the 20-fold rise and permanent 10x increase over many cycles -- it has been basing at low prices for many years.  Lots of new buyers from India, China, Asia, and even South/Central America and Africa....all must be satisfied.

I think all of us will see gold at $3,000 by 2030 (probably before)....and $5,000 by 2035 is more likely now than an outside shot. 

 

[cladking]

On 10/3/2024 at 2:31 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think all of us will see gold at $3,000 by 2030 (probably before)....and $5,000 by 2035 is more likely now than an outside shot. 

Don't underestimate the power of the US government to continue to suppress the price.  They are just letting it run now because the forces pushing it higher are too strong to contain but as the price increases it becomes easier to keep down.  It could languish in the $2750 area for a long time before making another move to $3500. Or it could start back up within a year.  I'd guess they'll hold it at least until 2027.  

[VKurtB]

On 10/3/2024 at 3:13 PM, cladking said:

Don't underestimate the power of the US government to continue to suppress the price.

True, OR you shouldn’t underestimate the power of m-o-r-o-n-s to drive it up. I can live my life quite happily without ever again owning ANY MORE GOLD. It has no use to me. I have no plans to be a bride in an Indian wedding. Stocks? Those I need as part of my financial plan. Gold need NOT have a part.  My stocks pay me a dividend. At least many do. Gold never has. Yes, my gold can and does theoretically appreciate, but trying to pry any of my supposed profits from a dealer is an ordeal I’d just as soon avoid. 

Edited Thursday at 11:22 PM by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

🐓  :  What say you, Q?

Q.A.:  I have never referred to my small collection as gold.  I have Roosters!  🤣

[VKurtB]

On 10/3/2024 at 6:59 PM, Henri Charriere said:

🐓  :  What say you, Q?

Q.A.:  I have never referred to my small collection as gold.  I have Roosters!  🤣

Watch out for feathers, then. And poo. How early do you like to get up?

[Henri Charriere]

On 10/3/2024 at 8:32 PM, VKurtB said:

Watch out for feathers, then. And poo. How early do you like to get up?

Pretty much as the Rooster crows.  🤣

[cladking]

On 10/3/2024 at 5:47 PM, VKurtB said:

True, OR you shouldn’t underestimate the power of m-o-r-o-n-s to drive it up. I can live my life quite happily without ever again owning ANY MORE GOLD. It has no use to me. I have no plans to be a bride in an Indian wedding. Stocks? Those I need as part of my financial plan. Gold need NOT have a part.  My stocks pay me a dividend. At least many do. Gold never has. Yes, my gold can and does theoretically appreciate, but trying to pry any of my supposed profits from a dealer is an ordeal I’d just as soon avoid. 

Gold's value has been eroding for two centuries and might continue to erode until it becomes worthless because it can be mined from space or the ocean.  But thanks to government waste there is a continuing series of times when the price is relatively high and one can sell.  This is not true with any other assets with the possible exception of real estate.  Stocks can languish for many decades and will again in the future.  

Owning some gold is prudent. 

[VKurtB]

On 10/4/2024 at 8:54 AM, cladking said:

Gold's value has been eroding for two centuries and might continue to erode until it becomes worthless because it can be mined from space or the ocean.  But thanks to government waste there is a continuing series of times when the price is relatively high and one can sell.  This is not true with any other assets with the possible exception of real estate.  Stocks can languish for many decades and will again in the future.  

Owning some gold is prudent. 

Okay, let me clear as a bell here. My college degree is in (Political) Economics. My professors included, among others, a China-obsessed wackadoodle (the Department Chair, who wore nothing but Chinese Mao-style blue peasant costumes, WITH the stupid cap), a future Pennsylvania Secretary of Banking during the Shapp Administration, a young huge fellow with a disturbingly high-pitched voice who was a self-professed committed Marxist, a future Prime Minister of Türkiye, and perhaps THE most strident Keynesian in the world other than the late John Maynard Keynes himself. This last fellow taught a full semester course on the General Theory of Employment, Interest, & Money. The ONLY college other than mine that had that extensive a Keynes course was Harvard University (mid-1970's), from whence that professor graduated and earned his doctorate. We didn't have Econometrics or any of that "charty quantitative" stuff. I was proficient at math, but virtually no one else felt a need to be. Even the Investments course had ABSOLUTELY ZERO charting technical analysis. No lines on charts forming triangles, or any of that stoopid Black Magic.

I know what I believe and you have LESS THAN ZERO PROBABILITY of convincing me that "Owning some gold is prudent." I've studied it, and I CONTINUE TO STUDY IT, and NO ONE will EVER convince me that owning gold for gold's sake is anything but moronic. I do own some, but its chemical content has NOTHING TO DO WITH IT - NOTHING. The gold I own I would STILL OWN if it were zinc or aluminum. "Goldbugs" are economic charlatans, bat feces CRAZY charlatans. And yah, that includes Steve Forbes.

Edited Friday at 06:29 PM by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 10/4/2024 at 8:54 AM, cladking said:

until it becomes worthless because it can be mined from space or the ocean

Neither is the most likely source of ubiquitous gold, drilling into the earth's mantle may be. That or the discovery of a suitable asteroid. Russian scientists insist that if we were able to extract the gold in the earth's core, which will never happen, it would cover the entire planet  to a depth of 14 feet.

Edited Friday at 05:58 PM by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 10/4/2024 at 12:53 PM, VKurtB said:

. Russian scientists insist that if we were able to extract the gold in the earth's core, which will never happen, it would cover the entire planet  to a depth of 14 feet.

Short of quantum entanglement or Star Trek teleportOrs this is never going to happen.   The center of the earth almost certainly is the place where most heavy metals reside.   

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/3/2024 at 4:13 PM, cladking said:

Don't underestimate the power of the US government to continue to suppress the price.  They are just letting it run now because the forces pushing it higher are too strong to contain but as the price increases it becomes easier to keep down.  It could languish in the $2750 area for a long time before making another move to $3500. Or it could start back up within a year.  I'd guess they'll hold it at least until 2027.  

The governmen isn't suppressing anything.  People who believe these prices are manipulated over long periods of time don't understand modern finance.

Ditto banks like JP Morgan being part of some conspiracy.  It's all nonsense.

Edited yesterday at 06:10 AM by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/4/2024 at 7:00 PM, cladking said:

Short of quantum entanglement or Star Trek teleportOrs this is never going to happen.   The center of the earth almost certainly is the place where most heavy metals reside.   

I watched some PBS Special on Quantum Entanglement and Einstein and my head is still spinning. 

[cladking]

On 10/5/2024 at 1:07 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The governmen isn't suppressing anything.  People who believe these prices are manipulated over long periods of time don't understand modern finance.

Ditto banks like JP Morgan being part of some conspiracy.  It's all nonsense

The government has many ways to affect the prices of everything now days but even back before 1987 they could create conditions that favored gold going up or down and they did.  The banks aren't so much an arm of the government as the government is an arm of the banks.  It's no conspiracy, it's the defacto operation of the economy.  

[cladking]

On 10/5/2024 at 1:08 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I watched some PBS Special on Quantum Entanglement and Einstein and my head is still spinning.

This may be where the real nonsense lies.  Science and experiment have become mathematics and some modern theories may be derived not so much from the nature of reality as disclosed through experiment as characteristics of the definitions and axioms of mathematics. I'm sure I don't know but I'm more sure not to believe everything I hear.  

[VKurtB]

I happened to have Fox Business on the tele this morning, and Barron's Weekend Roundtable was on. They got on the topic of having gold in your portfolio. Five commentators. They were UNANIMOUS that there should be NO GOLD in a responsible portfolio, certainly not from here. Face it. Gold "investors" (actually speculators) are a cult. Unfortunately the intersection set between coin collectors and that cult is significant. That doesn't mean you should be expecting me at your cult meetings. Besides, I'll be on a plane flying somewhere.

Edited 16 hours ago by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/5/2024 at 9:15 AM, cladking said:

The government has many ways to affect the prices of everything now days but even back before 1987 they could create conditions that favored gold going up or down and they did.  The banks aren't so much an arm of the government as the government is an arm of the banks.  It's no conspiracy, it's the defacto operation of the economy.  

If you're talking about monetary policy or Treasury operations on the dollar....those are PUBLIC and are well-telegraphed.

Notice nobody talks about conspiracies when prices are rising !! 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/5/2024 at 11:19 AM, VKurtB said:

I happened to have Fox Business on the tele this morning, and Barron's Weekend Roundtable was on. They got on the topic of having gold in your portfolio. Five commentators. They were UNANIMOUS that there should be NO GOLD in a responsible portfolio, certainly not from here. 

And that's news ????? 

[VKurtB]

On 10/5/2024 at 12:32 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Notice nobody talks about conspiracies when prices are rising !! 

Yet if anything WERE a conspiracy, that would be it. Who would be the conspirators? Absolutely everyone who sells gold for a living. And William Devane, who apparently brings a small stack of one ounce gold coins with him to his polling place. What’s up with that?

Edited 7 hours ago by VKurtB