Crazy Bidding for CAC Morgan 0

[EagleRJO]

On 11/12/2022 at 4:23 PM, Crawtomatic said:

I used to watch that kind of thing in the past for good crack & resubmit for profit opportunities.  If there's a wide margin between NGC & PCGS in the same grade some of the bidding could be from crossover potential.

I hit a few. But then I liked the coins so much I kept them. 

Edited November 13, 2022 by EagleRJO

[zadok]

On 11/12/2022 at 11:57 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Unless the gap is very wide...persistent...and nobody else sees it....I think dealing with illiquid items like coins it's tough to arbitrage the difference.  It's not like trying to sell a stock and seeing it sell for 10% higher on another exchange and you can hit the SELL button for either exchange in seconds.

...n here i thought an arbitrage was something u wore around ur neck when the ship is sinking...i guess that could still be rite if ur ship is the USS Crypto....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/13/2022 at 8:23 AM, zadok said:

...n here i thought an arbitrage was something u wore around ur neck when the ship is sinking...i guess that could still be rite if ur ship is the USS Crypto....

I think the crack-out game is understandable if you have a coin YOU LIKE..and you think it's undergraded and re-submit....but that's different than deliberately going after coins you intend to sell solely because you think they are undergraded.

For veterans and experts like yourself, maybe a niche sector can be exploited, Zad.  Clearly, alot of coins -- including Saints and Indian Heads -- were undergraded when they were raw and without a TPG holder in the 1970's,1980's, 1990's and early 2000's.  Especially high-end coins found at auctions.  David Akers used to find coins 2-3 grades too low that were given by dealers or the estates.

[Coinbuf]

On 11/12/2022 at 10:17 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I guess I've never understood this because I've never run a business...but much like a bookie not caring who wins or loses....aren't dealers in numismatics (like bullion dealers) supposed to buy and sell at prevailing MARKET rates ?  If they buy high and sell for a loss it should be offset by the times they bought cheap and sold for a windfall, no ?

No way a bullion dealer could buy gold at $2,050 at the highs in recent years and then try and sell it for that price (plus a markup) when gold fell back to $1,800-$1,900.

While often coin dealers deal in bullion gold and silver, there is a difference in how they operate between bullion and collector coins.   Yes bullion is bought and then sold almost immediately by coin dealers to the bullion wholesalers.   They then do what they do to move it along the pipeline, all this takes a few hours to a day or so at most.   But collectable coins are different, a dealer who bought inventory when gold was high, (important to remember that most dealers still leave room for markup), he may not have been able to sell all those coins before the price fell back.   So depending on how badly that dealer needs to turn that inventory he may be perfectly happy to sit on it at high prices and wait for the next price run up.

Also collectors and speculators who bought gold coins at full retail from a coin dealer or auction site while prices were at the top might be trying to sell now through places like GC or Ebay and setting high reserves to try and recoup all or most of the purchase price and fees.   And fees are a big consideration for higher priced items like this, if you don't have a store on ebay the fees will be 5-8% higher.

The gold coin market has lots of nuances and players with different motivations and considerations when it comes to pricing collectable and bullion gold coins.   Add to that the seemingly endless strong demand for both bullion and collector coins and it's really no surprise that we are still seeing high asking prices.   I also think that many sellers believe, as you have predicted in some of your replies on gold, that the spot price still has some upside potential.   Thus, if they believe that then there is no reason to take a loss unless the cashflow becomes an issue.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/13/2022 at 12:13 PM, Coinbuf said:

While often coin dealers deal in bullion gold and silver, there is a difference in how they operate between bullion and collector coins.   Yes bullion is bought and then sold almost immediately by coin dealers to the bullion wholesalers.   They then do what they do to move it along the pipeline, all this takes a few hours to a day or so at most.   But collectable coins are different, a dealer who bought inventory when gold was high, (important to remember that most dealers still leave room for markup), he may not have been able to sell all those coins before the price fell back.   So depending on how badly that dealer needs to turn that inventory he may be perfectly happy to sit on it at high prices and wait for the next price run up.

This makes sense, it's an illiquidity premium that numismatics should have.  The bid-ask spread (as we call it) should compensate for this risk.

On 11/13/2022 at 12:13 PM, Coinbuf said:

So depending on how badly that dealer needs to turn that inventory he may be perfectly happy to sit on it at high prices and wait for the next price run up.

Yeah, but what if we are talking YEARS ?  What did dealers who bought in 1980 or 1989 or 2011 do ?  I guess many eventually folded and sold, right CB ?

On 11/13/2022 at 12:13 PM, Coinbuf said:

Also collectors and speculators who bought gold coins at full retail from a coin dealer or auction site while prices were at the top might be trying to sell now through places like GC or Ebay and setting high reserves to try and recoup all or most of the purchase price and fees.   And fees are a big consideration for higher priced items like this, if you don't have a store on ebay the fees will be 5-8% higher.

The gold coin market has lots of nuances and players with different motivations and considerations when it comes to pricing collectable and bullion gold coins.   Add to that the seemingly endless strong demand for both bullion and collector coins and it's really no surprise that we are still seeing high asking prices.   I also think that many sellers believe, as you have predicted in some of your replies on gold, that the spot price still has some upside potential.   Thus, if they believe that then there is no reason to take a loss unless the cashflow becomes an issue.

Makes sense, thanks CB !! 

[Coinbuf]

On 11/13/2022 at 10:17 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

This makes sense, it's an illiquidity premium that numismatics should have.  The bid-ask spread (as we call it) should compensate for this risk.

Yeah, but what if we are talking YEARS ?  What did dealers who bought in 1980 or 1989 or 2011 do ?  I guess many eventually folded and sold, right CB ?

Makes sense, thanks CB !! 

The answer depends on how badly any dealer needs to turn inventory and create cash flow.   As an example, dealer buys 5 saints for $2000 each, he is then able to sell 4 of those coins for a total profit of $1800.  He still has one saint but at a net cost of $200, in this case he really does not have to sell the coin unless cash flow becomes an issue, and even if he subsequently sells that last one for $1600 he is still $1400 ahead on the entire deal.   Just one of many possible scenarios to explain why a dealer could be willing to hold out for that one buyer.   And yes it is also possible that a few dealers who get themselves overextended during a bull run might end up folding, it seems that there is always someone that is left without a chair when the music stops.   A few years back there was a fellow on the PCGS forum who tried his hand at being a vest pocket dealer, buying and selling on the BST of that forum; he ran into some trouble and overextended himself and began to rob Paul to pay Peter.   Sadly in the end he took his own life as a result of how badly in debt he was.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/12/2022 at 10:40 PM, zadok said:

...the half eagles, with motto r reasonable, w/o motto not so much...ur best bet would be $10 saints, minimal interest at the moment....

I was switching over to looking at the $5 Indian Head Half Eagle again, mostly because I like the way they look with the incuse design and would like to add a few to the collection. There always seems to be decent demand for those with the popular design, but prices may have come down a little since I was last looking.

On the $20 Saints I had been looking for some common date BU ones a little above spot as suggested by someone, but that just doesn't seem to be what they are going for except for maybe an anomaly. For just a gold bullion coin I like the more modern design and strike anyway, with a few exceptions like the roosters.

Not sure what you mean by $10 saints ... maybe a typo, and it's $10 indian heads?

[zadok]

On 11/13/2022 at 4:21 PM, EagleRJO said:

I was switching over to looking at the $5 Indian Head Half Eagle again, mostly because I like the way they look with the incuse design and would like to add a few to the collection. There always seems to be decent demand for those with the popular design, but prices may have come down a little since I was last looking.

On the $20 Saints I had been looking for some common date BU ones a little above spot as suggested by someone, but that just doesn't seem to be what they are going for except for maybe an anomaly. For just a gold bullion coin I like the more modern design and strike anyway, with a few exceptions like the roosters.

Not sure what you mean by $10 saints ... maybe a typo, and it's $10 indian heads?

...no i was referring to the $10 saint gaudens coins, ones with the indian style headdress they r selling for less than half of the asking price of the $20s in common dates n in my opinion much more attractive coin...the $5 incuse indian head is a short set n easily put together if so inclined, one semi-key n one so-called key date but all r available...locally i am seeing the $20 saints selling rite at melt n in some instances slightly below for ms61-62 coins...roosters n other generic bullion coins readily available in unc for melt plus 1-2%, just a matter of which country or design u prefer....

[EagleRJO]

On 11/13/2022 at 5:02 PM, zadok said:

...no i was referring to the $10 saint gaudens coins, ones with the indian style headdress they r selling for less than half of the asking price of the $20s in common dates n in my opinion much more attractive coin

Do you mean like the attached that has an indian with a large headdress? I would just call them $10 indians, or $10 Indian Head Eagles like in the RB and listings. Haven't heard them referred to as $10 saints. Unless it's something else and maybe you could post a pic.

P.S. Wished I lived by you, where common saints are going for melt.

Edited November 13, 2022 by EagleRJO

[zadok]

On 11/13/2022 at 5:18 PM, EagleRJO said:

Do you mean like the attached that has an indian with a large headdress? I would just call them $10 Indian Head Eagles like in the RB and listings. Haven't heard them referred to as $10 saints. Unless it's something else and maybe you could post a pic.

P.S. Wished I lived by you, where common saints are going for melt.

...thats the coin i was referring to....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/13/2022 at 5:02 PM, zadok said:

...no i was referring to the $10 saint gaudens coins, ones with the indian style headdress they r selling for less than half of the asking price of the $20s in common dates n in my opinion much more attractive coin...the $5 incuse indian head is a short set n easily put together if so inclined, one semi-key n one so-called key date but all r available...locally i am seeing the $20 saints selling rite at melt n in some instances slightly below for ms61-62 coins...roosters n other generic bullion coins readily available in unc for melt plus 1-2%, just a matter of which country or design u prefer....

This collapse in crypto won't help with any who are not part of the die-hards.  Lots of other people will go back to PM's or traditional financial investments.

[GoldFinger1969]

The other coins, with the Indian Head (male).....$5 and $2.50.....ASG designed those too, right ?  Or just the $20 and $10 before he died ?

[zadok]

On 11/13/2022 at 10:59 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The other coins, with the Indian Head (male).....$5 and $2.50.....ASG designed those too, right ?  Or just the $20 and $10 before he died ?

...no Pratt....

[VKurtB]

On 11/12/2022 at 2:04 PM, Simple Collector said:

Great Collections shows similar pricing for the two that auctioned already this year without CAC. PCGS in the same grade have been consistently in the range of $592. to $627. again without the CAC.

That narrow a range? That really surprises me. That’s a tight grouping any marksman would envy. 

[EagleRJO]

It really isn't unusual to find fairly grouped sold prices at GC or HA for some coins. What was unusual is the deviation from what I had been seeing previously having bid quite a number of these coins recently.

[GBrad]

On 11/13/2022 at 12:17 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

No way a bullion dealer could buy gold at $2,050 at the highs in recent years and then try and sell it for that price (plus a markup) when gold fell back to $1,800-$1,900.

NOPE,, no way can they recoup! That's why I stick to the Georgia Lottery Online games. I really like to help the Georgia "HOPE fund"🙄, you know... that educational aspect they sell you on in order to make you feel better about losing. At least it makes me feel better about blowing my money.

Edited November 14, 2022 by GBrad

[VKurtB]

On 11/13/2022 at 7:23 AM, zadok said:

...n here i thought an arbitrage was something u wore around ur neck when the ship is sinking...i guess that could still be rite if ur ship is the USS Crypto....

No, thassa tuna. 

[Crawtomatic]

On 11/12/2022 at 10:57 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Unless the gap is very wide...persistent...and nobody else sees it....I think dealing with illiquid items like coins it's tough to arbitrage the difference.  It's not like trying to sell a stock and seeing it sell for 10% higher on another exchange and you can hit the SELL button for either exchange in seconds.

Very much agreed.  I watched it but didn't act on it much as I would have if I were a gambler.  The big unknown is whether a coin will cross due to the largely subjective nature of grading and weight on eye appeal.  There used to be a sizable gap between high grade business strike SBA's but I don't know if it's closed at all.