No Gold 7070 Typeset Strategy? 2 2

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

First, a disclaimer... I am a total beginner coin collector (as my handle-name implies).  I started collecting coins in April of 2020, but I have been reading tons and have made a few connections in the hobby that have helped me a bit.

Lately, I have been buying PCGS and NGC graded coins to complete a 7070.  I originally wanted to keep the set MS+ if at all possible.  Most of my coins are MS64-67, and many have been CAC approved.  As I move back in time, I can see the costs driving-up dramatically (Seated and Capped/Draped coinage in particular).  I base my pricing estimates off the Greysheet and completed Ebay and private auctions to ensure a fairly competitive price point.  I am ready to step-out into the bigger coins, but I will have to make some tough choices on what I can do next.  I have seen historical sales soften on some coins, while increasing on others, but I do not have the timespan in the hobby to understand decades-long trends to make more educated decisions.  

I understand the attage, "buy what you like".  That said, I would like to better understand the historical market dynamics on a few of these coins, and get your advice on "If you were building a typeset and wanted to buy one of the "bigger coins", which one would you choose first?"  Are there coins that are cheaper to buy now, and others should wait for further depreciation?  I have been thinking about the following coins:

• Classic Head Large Cent - MS62BN
• Seated Dollar (no motto) - MS64
• Capped Bust Quarter (Large Diameter) - MS63

And - are there others within this range that I need to add to the list of targets?  Thanks in advance for the advice, and sorry for the long post.

Neo

[BlakeEik]

7 hours ago, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

First, a disclaimer... I am a total beginner coin collector (as my handle-name implies).  I started collecting coins in April of 2020, but I have been reading tons and have made a few connections in the hobby that have helped me a bit.

Lately, I have been buying PCGS and NGC graded coins to complete a 7070.  I originally wanted to keep the set MS+ if at all possible.  Most of my coins are MS64-67, and many have been CAC approved.  As I move back in time, I can see the costs driving-up dramatically (Seated and Capped/Draped coinage in particular).  I base my pricing estimates off the Greysheet and completed Ebay and private auctions to ensure a fairly competitive price point.  I am ready to step-out into the bigger coins, but I will have to make some tough choices on what I can do next.  I have seen historical sales soften on some coins, while increasing on others, but I do not have the timespan in the hobby to understand decades-long trends to make more educated decisions.  

I understand the attage, "buy what you like".  That said, I would like to better understand the historical market dynamics on a few of these coins, and get your advice on "If you were building a typeset and wanted to buy one of the "bigger coins", which one would you choose first?"  Are there coins that are cheaper to buy now, and others should wait for further depreciation?  I have been thinking about the following coins:

• Classic Head Large Cent - MS62BN
• Seated Dollar (no motto) - MS64
• Capped Bust Quarter (Large Diameter) - MS63

And - are there others within this range that I need to add to the list of targets?  Thanks in advance for the advice, and sorry for the long post.

Neo

If you are worried about the coins you buy as an investment: add to your list Early gold (1795-1804), Early Silver (1794-1804, but especially with small eagles), Classic Gold (pre-1840), and buy key dates, not types. Also check the mintages and pop reports: As an investment, you are much better off buying a MS65 with population of 6 over a MS64 with a population of 600. Markets will change a lot, however scarcities do not change much. 

But in my opinion, if you are not so worried about the investment, the excitement in finding a nice type that you don't already have, like a Classic Head LC, Large Capped Bust 25c, or MS Seated $1, is worth more than potential gain your kids will inherit.

 

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

BlakeEik - Thanks so much for the advice.  I was not really thinking of my coins as an "investment" per se.  I do this for fun.  My kids are young, and I originally started in coins by Coin Roll Hunting for something to do with my kids during COVID lockdown - teaching them dates, presidents, denominations and money value...etc ( just couldn't stand them on screens all day).  However, it wasn't long into my journey when the coin shortage happened, and a walk into a local coin shop was the best/worst decision I ever made.  I saw an 1818 N10 LC and was blown away. I didn't even know large cents existed before May 2020.  My eyes were opened to a world of US coins.  I thought, I would like one of every design (without even knowing what that really meant).  If someone asked, "Have you seen a _____?" I would not only have seen it but, also have a "nice" example of one.

I guess I am not trying to make money, as much as I am trying to get more great coins for the money by maximizing my purchasing power.  If a coin is on the decline... I will still buy it, but I would rather use today's funds for items that may be out of reach tomorrow.  I am not trying to be overly speculative, but I know that seasoned veterans in this hobby know some of the market cycles and may be able to say, "I would wait on that one, and go for this one today."

Thanks again for all of your advice.  While I stayed away from thinking about gold, I think this is something I should reconsider.  Considering key dates is something I have flirted with, but I will have to be selective on this also.  I am just a "normal income" person - not a multimillionaire (but, I am sure multimillionaires have to make tough choices in their collections, too).  Would you say that a key date in VF is "better" than a common date in MS65 (assuming the cost of the coin is the same)?  I have been exclusively shooting for common dates in the highest grades I can afford (maybe a rookie mistake).   Again, much appreciated... I need these vantage points.

Neo 

PS - If anyone can steer me toward the best books to read, I am always looking for ways to build my knowledge base.  Wealth of knowledge is the most cost-effective wealth to build.

PPS - My PCGS coins just loaded, so you can take a look at my progress, thus far.  I will be uploading photos of coins tonight.  Exciting.  

Edited November 20, 2020 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[BlakeEik]

10 hours ago, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Would you say that a key date in VF is "better" than a common date in MS65 (assuming the cost of the coin is the same)?  I have been exclusively shooting for common dates in the highest grades I can afford (maybe a rookie mistake). 

The more scarce it is, the more potential it has to bring bigger gains.  Scarce as in low mintage, but also in condition (as graded by NGC or PCGS). Modern coins like the State Quarters in mint bags sold for big buck when first released - these have no chance to make big gains from that point.  Meanwhile I have a 1916D dime in VG8 that has (at least) tripled since I bought it in the nineties. Key dates in popular series will rarely lose money over the long haul. Common dates in high grades have potential for gain when the condition is rare, like a common date wheat cent in PF68 Ultra Cameo.   But not so much for common condition like a memorial cent dated in the 1990s in PF70 Ultra Cam.  And don't forget: the coin needs to like like it deserves the grade.

I am a type collector too.  I decided after collecting for a year or two that I wanted it to remain a hobby first, investment 2nd. I do not carefully track my costs for this reason. But I also decided I didn't want to make any bad purchases. What you say is good - stick to PCGS and NGC coins, CAC too if so, and buy coins you want (not the holder). Buying raw coins can be risky if you don't know what you are looking for.  I'll pay up to "retail" price, either using the PCGS guide or the CDN guide if I really want the coin. The NGC guide I find to be more outdated, or over priced, but not all the time.  If you are looking for a deal, research the hammer prices for similar coins. What ever you get, chances are they may go up or down in price as the market tends to cycle. But if you really liked the coin when you bought it, it won't matter much.

Lots of good advice can be found here https://www.ngccoin.com/news/

If you are not a member of the ANA, join, their magazine has good articles and recommends more good reads.

[BlakeEik]

I took a peek at your 7070. I think you have been buying nice coins by the photos there.  I don't think their book value will decline much over the years, but like I said, I think the rarer, older coins will perform better.  If you have the opportunity (and $$$), I would look for the bust and seated coins first, and only get the moderns you are missing when you can't find suitable classics.  When I started, I tried the opposite strategy, and bought the easy-to-find moderns, but that was mostly because that's all I could afford, and I like modern coins too.  I bought the older coins once I made more money.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

I have not bought many modern coins; not because I don't like them (I really do).  I have avoided them because they would be good (and lesser priced) gift ideas for my kids give.  They could buy me a coin for the cost of a necktie, and they will love knowing that a coin they gave me is in my special set.  This started with them, and I want them to stay into it.

Thanks for all of the tips and resources.  I really appreciate you taking the time to help a rookie like me.  I am sure I will make mistakes along the way, but people like you will help me to mitigate.  It's invaluable for me at this point - Thanks x 1,000,000.

Neo 

Edit:  Thanks so much for taking a look at my set.  I just went into the 7070 set listings and saw yours... wow!  What a delicious, high-powered collection you have.  Those proof coins are stunning.  I like colorful coins that don't distract from the design, and yours are exactly that.  I love them!  Congratulations on building such a fine collection. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by The Neophyte Numismatist