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Modern bubble about to burst.

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Since these are actually coins it seems best to respond on the US Coin forum. Mint and proof set prices have been weak for some time now which is lowering the cost to obtain most high grade moderns. Any softening of the market is likely due to this and simple maturation of a brand new market. It should be remembered that some of these prices are up several thousand fold in the last ten years since the entire coin market bottomed out in 1995. While poulations of some coins will continue to grow rapidly as more of these sets become available, many moderns have already long passed the greatest rate of being slabbed. Coins like 1973 Ikes are not going to be made in huge numbers in the future since most of these sets have already been destroyed and many of the remaining sets have already been checked.


There are still large numbers of people enterring the hobby and there are still rapidly growing numbers of people collecting moderns. The coins will not go down to face value again even if the number of collectors were to decrease.


In all probability the increase in the numbers of sets hitting the market is due to the high prices for gems luring them out of hiding. This has created a glut on the market. Since there is a finite supply of these sets and it obviously hasn't been exhausted, it would seem that prices can remain lower until collectors have depleted the number of sets on the market. To put this in perspective though remember that a set like the 1970 mint set probably doesn't have more than a few thousand available for sale at any given time. There's another few ten's of thousands that would become available if the price were right or the owner wanted the cash. These are very small numbers compared to the total number of collectors and when you consider that large percentages of these coins are inferior it leaves an extremely small supply for an extremely small market.

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Very good response without the least bit of defensiveness considering the topic of this thread. thumbsup2.gif

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