The Next Big GSA Price Movement posted by AlphaTrilogy

[CSJournals-migration]

The 1890-CC has taken a rocket like ride over the past year! I've been unsuccessfully trying to buy a second 1890-CC GSA Hoard in NGC MS63 or higher for about 13 months! The prices have shot through the roof and people are still holding on to them!

 

 

 

What is next?

 

The 1890-CC has taken a rocket like ride over the past year! I've been unsuccessfully trying to buy a second 1890-CC GSA Hoard in NGC MS63 or higher for about 13 months! The prices have shot through the roof and people are still holding on to them!

 

 

 

What is next?

 

 

 

I can honestly tell you, I have no idea. And, neither does anyone else. If these things could easily be predicted, we'd all be rich. But, we aren't!

 

 

 

There are some things about the 1890-CC that help to explain it's meteor like rise. First, it is extremely rare in a GSA Hard Pack. The NGC census shows a current population of only 581. Compare that to the almost 28,000 84-CC's. The second factor is the relative scarcity of high grade 1890-CC's in the GSA Hard Pack. There are only (13) graded 64 and only ONE graded 65, with none higher. An interesting side note is that a well known dealer is currently offering the MS65 coin at a whopping price of $75,000.

 

 

 

By combining extreme scarcity with the already high desirability of Carson City Mint coins and the demand for GSA Hoard coins you come up with a product that is sure to bring a hefty price. Thus, the hefty price of 1890-CC GSA Hoard coins in the current marketplace.

 

 

 

I'm not sure this is an anomaly. In fact, I'm rather confident that it is not. These coins are rare and desirable so why shouldn't they be bringing more money? I'm of the opinion that they were under priced in relation to their GSA brethren for many years and collectors finally got wise! If I'm right then the heavy prices we are seeing today could be sustainable. In fact, prices could continue to go up.

 

 

 

I don't really expect to see prices level off until we see them starting to be dumped into the marketplace. It just isn't happening yet.

 

 

 

So, what's next?

 

 

 

I would answer that question with a question of my own "What other coins are 1) scarce and 2) are part of the highly sought after historic GSA Hoard and the current value doesn't accurately reflect the scarcity?"

 

 

 

One such coin is the 1890-CC's younger brother, the 1891-CC. This coin is almost as scarce and yet it currently sells at about a 35-40% discount to the 1890-CC. Seems logical that it might have some ways to move up?

 

 

 

The non-cc GSA hard packs are also very rare. Some of them are already bringing some fairly high prices. But, there are anomalies within the group and if you look closely you can find some bargains (seem like they might be under priced)relative to the entire group.

 

 

 

I'm a huge collector of GSA Soft Packs. As such, I'm investing my personal money in these. They are extremely scarce and were issued by the GSA in their own unique holders. Most were broken out of the holders and only a few remain. I've noticed some new collectors starting to buy these and they're starting to become a little more difficult to find at what I consider to be reasonable prices. I really envy the guys that had the foresight to start collecting these back when no one knew what they were!

 

 

 

Regardless, the key to value in the world of collectibles is a combination of desirability (demand) and scarcity (supply). But, be careful. Just because something is scarce it doesn't mean that its desirable or in demand.

 

 

 

So, instead of trying to beat the market, find something that you personally like and collect that. Then, if you get lucky and your collection begins a meteoric rise in value you can smile big. But, even if it never happens, you can still smile because of the enjoyment you got from collecting.

 

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[Six Mile Rick]

The 1890-CC has taken a rocket like ride over the past year! I've been unsuccessfully trying to buy a second 1890-CC GSA Hoard in NGC MS63 or higher for about 13 months! The prices have shot through the roof and people are still holding on to them!

So, instead of trying to beat the market, find something that you personally like and collect that. Then, if you get lucky and your collection begins a meteoric rise in value you can smile big. But, even if it never happens, you can still smile because of the enjoyment you got from collecting.

 

See more journals by AlphaTrilogy

(thumbs u

[wdrob]

I just broke two out of GSA Hard Cases last night.

 

No need to worry though - they were 1882-CC and 1884-CC

 

 

[axiom94]

Super ditto on the last paragraph!

 

[Mr Bo Jingles]

I believe this is going to be the year of the GSA. They moved quite a bit for a while then some adjusting happened, but they are ready to move again.

 

Some people argue that Morgan Dollars are not rare. That is "relatively" true for many coins, however, GSA's in their OGP are getting rarer and rarer. I used to go to shows and see tons of GSA cases and some pretty high grades. The last couple shows I went to the only guy that had high graded GSA's was Doug Sharpe.

 

Watch for the 1879, 1885 (MS 65&66), and 1891 make significant moves in 2015.

 

Also, be wary of unopened GSA's, especially when people say they don't know what year it is. 99% of the time they are 1884's and not pretty. Many times when you see an ebay dealer selling unopened singles you can look in their feedback history and see they bought a 5 pack earlier and already know the year. If I was a dealer and had an unopened GSA and truly didn't know what year it was you can bet I would be opening it to see if I hit the lottery!

 

I love the Morgan GSA set. One of the most fascinating sets to collect!

[jpcienkus]

Hey Bo. Haven't seen you around in a good long time. Have you made any additions to your awesome GSA collection?

 

Joe

[Mr Bo Jingles]

Hey Joe!

 

Hope all is well with you. I have been taking it easy and really not doing too much collecting with the exception of some Canadian $20 for $20 coins I'm picking up for our Godkids. I have my eyes open for a possible upgrade or two for the Boglen Gems, but this set has really taken off and I think in the next 4 or 5 years most average joes will be priced out of collecting them.

 

I would still like to get a 1878 in MS65. It's not something I must have, but I would really like to improve that one coin and possibly go after an 1880 MS66. It would have to involve wheeling and dealing and selling other things, so it really would have to be the perfect storm.

 

I will say I have seen absolutely nothing at any major show lately outside what Doug Sharpe has which I think is a good barometer of where the values are going to go in the near future.

 

How's your set coming along? I haven't looked at any set lately with the exception of the Chappell collection. I chatted with Barry the other day about it. What a magnificent set. I would hope a museum ponies up and purchases this from him when he is ready to sell.

 

Happy Collecting!

 

Bo

 

[jpcienkus]

Hi Bo,

 

My GSA collection is stagnant at the moment. I look at the auctions and sometimes on eBay for upgrades to what I have, but haven't seen anything I like. This is the latest addition. I bought it for the toning.

 

Crappy picture from Legend. Really cool in hand.

 

Give me 1st crack at anything you decide to sell! I haven't had the patience to save for a the tough date GSA's as I've been working on a 7070 type set.

 

I watch Art & Coin TV. 1st coin show I ever watched and am amused at the dynamics of the show. Barry looks like he'd be a cool guy to have a beer with. What was he like (send PM rather than post here). Now if I were to have a beer with Sean, I'd keep one hand on the wallet! He likes to stretch truths a little.

 

Glad to see you back posting. I would like to upgrade my '81 CC. It's only a 64 DPL. A fantastic looking DPL, but still...

 

 

Joe

[Mr Bo Jingles]

Two nice coins! I really love the mirrors on that 81 DPL! It's going to be a while before we let anything go unless the market goes nuts. I'm still going to try and improve the set. Man, I wish I would have snagged an 1880 in MS66 4 or 5 years ago! Oh well, as some grades become unreachable for the common man the next step down becomes a hot item.

 

A good strategy for an investment set is try to put together the best set you can out of only DPL's I think most of the DPL's are out there already graded. You don't see pops move on these and all ungraded GSA's you see at shows and on ebay are really rough.

 

There are some really nice MS64 and MS65 DPL's out there that still represent a good value for the moment.

 

If you know somebody with a blast white 1878CC GSA that's wanting to sell or trade, please pass on my contact info!

 

Nice chatting with you again. It has been a minute.

[jpcienkus]

Agree with you about the DPL GSA's. I have '81, '82, '83 & '84 in DPL. I love the mirrors on them all.

 

I'll keep my eye out for a '78 that I believe you would like!