current population counts per PCGS and NGC

[O mint bug]

I have read two books on New Orleans old gold recently, both were written by David bowers in 1904 and Doug Winters in 2006. David Bowers book is without a doubt the best reading I have run across for the collector. Doug Winters also did a good job. Davis Bowers book would assist any collector no mater what you collect.

 

Both have pop counts for all grades of the DEs in all grades. Given a vast majority if not all the Os from that era were slabbed by that time I feel their pop counts are more accurate than the present NGC and PCGS counts. Resubmissions to both grading agencies increase the count if slabbed. As a result I feel the current pop counts are overstated and the only new slabs will be resubmissions as opposed to new coins coming from previously unslabbed coins. If anyone has collected old gold or other rare coins of age I would appreciate your comments. I have been collecting DEs for about two years and have no experience from the pop counts of 2004 and 2006. Any ship wreck recoveries had few if any O mints so this is not a source of all but a small handful of coins as S mints were the coins that showed up in these recoveries. Repatriation of early DEs were few and almost all were vf and some xf coins, took place many years ago and these coins were factored in the 04 and 06 books. AU coins from Europe were all but none existent and most coins sent there were melted by the British for manufacture of their own coins. NGC and PCGS are not to blame as they slab coins as opposed to try to keep up with a true pop count, which I feel would be very close to impossible.

 

Any feedback would be appreciated.

[MarkFeld]

Due to resubmissions, the populations for most coins are overstated in the population reports.

 

However, I would disagree with the idea that "the only new slabs will be resubmissions as opposed to new coins coming from previously unslabbed coins.". I think it's more like "most of" instead of "the only". Previously unheard of or long-lost rarities surface from time to time. A small group of extremely rare Proof Capped Bust coins that we auctioned in the past year comes to mind. And ditto for some special Peace Dollars which came to light very recently.

[RWB]

"Given a vast majority if not all the Os from that era were slabbed by that time..."

 

This is not necessarily a valid assumption. To that caution, add Mark's comments.

[BillJones]

I think that resubmissions have inflated a lot of population report numbers. For example years ago a dealer told me that he knew of an 1854-D Three Dollar gold piece that had submitted at least four times in an attempt to get the much coveted MS grade. When the piece came back graded AU it was cracked out an re-submitted. I am sure that this was not an isolated case. Therefore you when you look at the population reports for 1854-D Three Dollar gold coins, you get the impression that the coin is no so tough in AU because the same coins have been counted multiple times.

 

On the other hand I bought some gold dollars in the recent Heritage sale that were labeled from the "J.S. Morgan Collection." Somehow I get the impression that these coins had not been graded before and they are pieces that have "come in from out of the cold" from raw pieces are now in the census for the first time.

 

[O mint bug]

I can see a raw coin surfacing on occasion. BUT the expensive coins are the ones that got slabbed earliest NGC and PCGS started in the mid 80s and the trend continued from there. Looking at the arrest DES I have followed show little pop increase from that period. I know of collectors that have resubmitted a single coin more than twice and finally got the grade they wanted. When the pop of say an 1850 O is 36 in AU in 2006 I doubt the count increased over the last years to around 50. There may have been a couple of them found but to go from 36 to 49 in eight years is hard to believe especially when the price is factored in. I spoke to a dealer and they have not seen a DE come in raw for quite some time. Based on a very limited pop and the economic benefit associated with getting a few extra points I feel the increase in the pop described above is largely due to resubmissions as opposed to most of the in attributable to coins slabbed for the first time. I can tell you than an 1855 O and similar pop coins are harder to locate now even though the pop number is up. Same goes for all the other later type one Os from 55 on except the 54 and 56, which were always extremely rare. I don't know a collector that has not resubmitted coins more than once, sometimes more than once. For that reason I feel the D Bowers writing is closer to the real number but we will likely never know. POP in these coins has grown but not as quickly as the price. I am just a few years late and a bunch of dollars short

[MarkFeld]

I can see a raw coin surfacing on occasion. BUT the expensive coins are the ones that got slabbed earliest NGC and PCGS started in the mid 80s and the trend continued from there. Looking at the arrest DES I have followed show little pop increase from that period. I know of collectors that have resubmitted a single coin more than twice and finally got the grade they wanted. When the pop of say an 1850 O is 36 in AU in 2006 I doubt the count increased over the last years to around 50. There may have been a couple of them found but to go from 36 to 49 in eight years is hard to believe especially when the price is factored in. I spoke to a dealer and they have not seen a DE come in raw for quite some time. Based on a very limited pop and the economic benefit associated with getting a few extra points I feel the increase in the pop described above is largely due to resubmissions as opposed to most of the in attributable to coins slabbed for the first time. I can tell you than an 1855 O and similar pop coins are harder to locate now even though the pop number is up. Same goes for all the other later type one Os from 55 on except the 54 and 56, which were always extremely rare. I don't know a collector that has not resubmitted coins more than once, sometimes more than once. For that reason I feel the D Bowers writing is closer to the real number but we will likely never know. POP in these coins has grown but not as quickly as the price. I am just a few years late and a bunch of dollars short

 

Even if all of what you wrote above is correct, it does not appear to account for the possibility of coins that have never been submitted for grading. You would likely be shocked and amazed by some of the coins/collections which have never been graded.

[jom]

I can see a raw coin surfacing on occasion. BUT the expensive coins are the ones that got slabbed earliest NGC and PCGS started in the mid 80s and the trend continued from there. Looking at the arrest DES I have followed show little pop increase from that period. I know of collectors that have resubmitted a single coin more than twice and finally got the grade they wanted. When the pop of say an 1850 O is 36 in AU in 2006 I doubt the count increased over the last years to around 50. There may have been a couple of them found but to go from 36 to 49 in eight years is hard to believe especially when the price is factored in. I spoke to a dealer and they have not seen a DE come in raw for quite some time. Based on a very limited pop and the economic benefit associated with getting a few extra points I feel the increase in the pop described above is largely due to resubmissions as opposed to most of the in attributable to coins slabbed for the first time. I can tell you than an 1855 O and similar pop coins are harder to locate now even though the pop number is up. Same goes for all the other later type one Os from 55 on except the 54 and 56, which were always extremely rare. I don't know a collector that has not resubmitted coins more than once, sometimes more than once. For that reason I feel the D Bowers writing is closer to the real number but we will likely never know. POP in these coins has grown but not as quickly as the price. I am just a few years late and a bunch of dollars short

 

Even if all of what you wrote above is correct, it does not appear to account for the possibility of coins that have never been submitted for grading. You would likely be shocked and amazed by some of the coins/collections which have never been graded.

 

There's a simple reason for that also. It is very possible that since the collection isn't going to be sold anytime soon there might not be a reason for the owner to submit the coins. Other than for the protection a slab might give the coins why bother with the expense of a submission in that case?

 

jom

[Nutmeg Coin]

What would be the criteria the submitter would consider for resubmission? I can't remember the last time I resubmitted a coin that I thought was undergraded, for that I do CAC and they almost never gold sticker a high value or rare coin unless all the stars are aligned; eye appeal, technical grading, the old fashioned standards they tend to follow vs. the modern "market acceptable" standards, that the coin will not come back to bite them if they make a mis-judgment.

 

So what would be reasonable criteria for resubmissions? Nice eye appeal which would cause either PCGS or NGC to grade higher next time. A substantial $$ spread between the current grade and the desired/expected grade. Confidence in one's or another crack out expert's grading ability as it pertains to the coins submitted. Perceived willingness on the part of the grading services to give higher grades at certain times; ie the beginning of the ANA show where they want the word to get out that the coast is clear to resubmit PQ coins for higher grades; grading events, that are members only. Most of us have probably seen plenty of overgraded coins. We will probably never really know how many of the really rare dates there actually are unless there were to be some event incentivizing some type of absolute census.

[O mint bug]

If it is a more common circulated Indian head cent I would agree. But when the coins go for five and six figures very few if any sit around and go unsold. There may be a couple of higher end DEs around in an unknown location but a vast majority rapidly find their way into the collecting community especially if they are inherited and the new owner has more interest in cash than an old coin. As a result the vast majority of the DE O mint increase a result of resubmission. just too much money to be made if one gets a higher grade. I am not suggesting this could not happen but it is like having a 1957 T Bird in your garage you care nothing about but don't sell it. It used to be the case but a good one now goes in the high five figures and people know old classic cars as well as coins bring a significant amount of money. Make no mistake about it as pop reports a inflated. The question is by how much relative to the 2004 numbers. Economics are very efficient and people know old gold coins are often worth a significant amount of money and as soon as the owner finds out they are often sold if not in a collection. Since I have been collecting one 1856 O has surfaced and that is it. Any AU or better coin would be taken care of by the owner which tells me he knows he has something. Both points have merit and what I really want to know is are coins like a 93s Morgan in AU still being found or are a vast majority out and slabbed. If they have been tossed into a box loose for years I doubt they would grade in the higher AU range as not taking care of a coin will have an adverse effect on the condition and many that are found are likely cleaned. I know the DE pops are inflated on the tougher dates and those that were in unknowing hands often improperly cleaned as one 1856 O now up for auction by Heritage. These coins are not counted in the pop numbers as only a coin that has not been tampered with in any way does and I seriously doubt sit around in collections very long and a vast majority sold back into the collecting community as soon as the owner finds out what they have.

[DaveG]

O mint bug,

 

While some coins seem to be always around the numismatic world - appearing at auctions multiple times, being submitted and re-submitted to the grading services, etc., there are other coins that disappear into collections and aren't seen again publicly for decades and decades.

 

A good example may be the 1844-O proof half eagle, which apparently hasn't resurfaced since it was purchased from Abe Kosoff in 1959. Doug Winter comments in his Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint that at that time, the coin was still in the collection of the 1959 purchaser.

 

Another example is the ANS' collection: from what I've been told, their coins aren't slabbed. (I know people who've seen some of their coins, but when I go there, I go to the library.)

 

The numismatic world is a world of personal connections, which are frequently nurtured over decades. Someone like Mark Feld has been around the "deep end of the pool" for a long time.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Mark were to be familiar with high-end collections whose coins haven't been been slabbed. For that matter, I'm sure Doug Winter can tell you about some high-end coins that haven't been slabbed.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

The numismatic community as we understand it, is not the only location or source of wonderful non-slabbed coins.

 

In my limited experience, and in my limited geographic wanderings, I can attest that the Holdings of the Amish and Mennonite communities would stun many, and are not "collected" in the sense that we interpret.

 

Are these communities aware of what the coins may represent in the numismatic world?

 

Yes. But, I seriously doubt these coins will ever find their way to a TPG or auction.

 

The Holdings are kept for other reasons that are important to their communities.

 

I would view their Holdings, and the reason they preserve them, as equal to the most impressive Stamp collection I ever viewed many years ago in Naples; the collection of Mr. Luciano. He assembled it for love of History, community and preservation and not for a profit or future sales plan. He was very private about the Collection. He was aware of its uniqueness and value, and didn't really care.

[DaveG]

johncurlis,

 

That's very interesting!

 

Can you say whether the Amish and Mennonites preserve the coins as a collector would - careful storage, etc., or is their interest more in the coins as stores of tangible value?

 

Have these coins been in their communities since the times when these coins circulated or do they currently buy collectible coins?

[Nutmeg Coin]

Steinmetz and other dealers in Amish/Mennonite country help those folks acquire and later sell their collections and precious metals. Lancaster County, PA and Holmes County, Ohio. Huge money there made by catering to the tourists and running trades oriented businesses with all the kids' income going into the family pot with real estate sales generating big buck$. They live like uber-misers only spending when absolutely necessary. There is more to the outwardly "wonderful" life than meets the eyes like the Quaker managers of the "Pequod" who wouldn't be bothered by ethical issues of whale hunting. And I would not suppose they don't know what they have or what the price of tea in China is currently bringing. Still not a significant % in most population reports of rare coins as people who work with their hands are not going to be loading up on esoteric 3c nickels, early half cents, etc., but are going to be going for "Biblical" money, gold by the ounce and 90% silver.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

johncurlis,

 

That's very interesting!

 

Can you say whether the Amish and Mennonites preserve the coins as a collector would - careful storage, etc., or is their interest more in the coins as stores of tangible value?

 

Have these coins been in their communities since the times when these coins circulated or do they currently buy collectible coins?

 

As a collector would, is a little more direct and targeted method. There is care and preservation, in the sense that the pieces are not tossed in a jar, or box. Think of the "storage" methods as more along the lines of a well made and protected pie box, with a specific purpose of protection of the contents.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

Steinmetz and other dealers in Amish/Mennonite country help those folks acquire and later sell their collections and precious metals. Lancaster County, PA and Holmes County, Ohio. Huge money there made by catering to the tourists and running trades oriented businesses with all the kids' income going into the family pot with real estate sales generating big buck$. They live like uber-misers only spending when absolutely necessary. There is more to the outwardly "wonderful" life than meets the eyes like the Quaker managers of the "Pequod" who wouldn't be bothered by ethical issues of whale hunting. And I would not suppose they don't know what they have or what the price of tea in China is currently bringing. Still not a significant % in most population reports of rare coins as people who work with their hands are not going to be loading up on esoteric 3c nickels, early half cents, etc., but are going to be going for "Biblical" money, gold by the ounce and 90% silver.

 

We are not referring to the same situation. I am aware of the Steinmetz type of help.

 

Your thoughts on the community life I will not address.

 

The significant percentage comment may be correct. I don't follow or concern myself with such reports. I have always found such tracking reports as market driven with a specific purpose of addressing financial aspects that are of benefit, but not all encompassing. A useful tool, no doubt, but it is a part of the Market Model, to me. That is neither good or bad, it just is.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

johncurlis,

 

That's very interesting!

 

Can you say whether the Amish and Mennonites preserve the coins as a collector would - careful storage, etc., or is their interest more in the coins as stores of tangible value?

 

Have these coins been in their communities since the times when these coins circulated or do they currently buy collectible coins?

 

I just realized I did not comment on one part of your question.

 

The pieces I have seen, were described as being passed down over generations.

 

There are persons within the community that attend auctions of coins, and coin shows and acquire coins, yes. These are not the pieces and Holdings I am referring to. The auction and coin show acquisitions are for purposes of commerce and profit marketing...sort of trinket sales.

 

Please don't confuse the aspect and habits of Amish and Mennonite communities. There is very little interaction between them, and very different community approach to commerce and interaction with persons not part of the community.

[DaveG]

johncurlis,

 

Thanks for your comments.

 

I'm interested because my wife's maternal grandparents were from central New York (the Finger Lakes area) and, as a result, I've been visiting the area for the past 35 years. As you may know, there's now a large Amish and/or Mennonite population there. (I have been told what outward signs distinguish the different communities, but I usually forget.)

 

I've always been impressed by how industrious they are and how their businesses grow and grow year after year. (I jokingly remark to some of my city friends that those modest-seeming farmwives are really running Fortune 500-size businesses.)

 

And, yes - I'm mainly worried about the competition - if they're buying coins currently, that's a whole different kettle of fish from them passing down coins through the generations.

[Afterword]

"In my limited experience, and in my limited geographic wanderings, I can attest that the Holdings of the Amish and Mennonite communities would stun many, and are not "collected" in the sense that we interpret."

 

 

 

 

I hope the wrong people do not find out about these holdings.

 

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

"In my limited experience, and in my limited geographic wanderings, I can attest that the Holdings of the Amish and Mennonite communities would stun many, and are not "collected" in the sense that we interpret."

 

 

 

 

I hope the wrong people do not find out about these holdings.

 

There is always that possibility in any community anywhere.

 

I think in the case of the communities I have referred to, that is a minor concern and has been addressed.

 

A person will have the privilege to see and know and have knowledge of what a person is allowed to see and know and have knowledge of, and no more. The allowance of the privilege is closely and fiercely protected.

[Kurtdog]

I would view their Holdings, and the reason they preserve them, as equal to the most impressive Stamp collection I ever viewed many years ago in Naples; the collection of Mr. Luciano.

Sounds like a Lucky guy.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

I would view their Holdings, and the reason they preserve them, as equal to the most impressive Stamp collection I ever viewed many years ago in Naples; the collection of Mr. Luciano.

Sounds like a Lucky guy.

 

 

Yes, actually he was, and you would be one of the rare persons who would know about this.

 

Obviously, you lived on the Via Monzoni above the Catacombs.

[O mint bug]

Not saying all just most of the pop increase. very few truly rare coins surface in high Au condition. Economics drives every ones actions collector or not. most either are advised to get any that MAY pop up. The buyer is also usually insistent on buying a raw coin with minimal exception unless he is getting it a such a price someone will by it. Dealers are famous for resubmits as they know well the value of a few more points on a rare coin. If you have David Bowers book on Des 2004 edition read the preface and when you get to the grading section you will just how many times one dealer he knows resubmitted a 16 D dime before he went from MS 64 to MS 65.

 

The book will help a collector no matter how active they have been in in coin collecting and based on what I see on this forum I get the impression he has forgot more than a vast majority of the collectors know.

[O mint bug]

If there were 36 AU 551855 Os slabbed in 2004 and 49 now I seriously AU 55 grade DEs with lower pop counts surface much if at all. On some coins one uptick in the grade can bring you lots of money and for that reason dealers and collectors do it. I contacted a well known wholesaler where I live and spoke to a NGC rep and both felt the increase in this type of coin is largely due to resubmissions. Grading is no science and it is not uncommon for a coin to be cracked out of the slab more than once or more, especially ones that are expensive. Silver dollars may still be in vaults but type one DEs were largely used on the west coast and some sent to Europe, Those that went to Europe were almost all VF and EF, many of which were melted by the Brits to mint their own coins. A silver dollar I can see but DEs are a different animal. The survival rate is about one per thousand, including resubmissions. Rare Des like the 54 and 56 O have not increased in pop. The only thing that has increased significantly is the price of the O mints. As for silver dollars when I was young we used to cross the border in Mexico and trade a greenback even for Morgans and Peace dollars and the bank seemed glad to get rid of them. never had the chance to trade a $5 billion for a half eagle.

 

Frankly I wish some 54 and 56 Os would surface in any grade so I could get all 12 in the set. just don't see it happening.

 

All hoards that were found ie some 1857 Os were vf to weak xf and were quickly absorbed by the market. An AU coin sitting around for decades not noticed and sold for melt or to a collector does not add up. Just too much money to be made selling it and I doubt they were in hiding for over 150 years.

[O mint bug]

A few could be but all the legit dealers and NGC attribute a vest majority of the increase to resubmissions. On one I just got if I were able to resubmit it I would have a coin that would sell for another $10,000 going from a AU 55 to AU 58. You can isolate a few examples but pop increases in every type one O mint DE form 2004 to 2013 are in mow way primarily a result of old collections coming out of a closet. I hot to go with NHCs opinion and the fact that economics pretty much drives all decisions. If the AU pop were up as a result of some more getting slabbed I would have seen more than come AU 55 come on the market . Also these old collections get broken up and when sold are almost always in a slab. I can tell you the 1850 O DE AU 55 pop did not go from 35 to 48 over the last ten years because of coins appearing. I don't disagree might have surfaces, primarily in VF and XF but not 14 rare AU 55s over the last ten years. just does not add up, especially with many dealers trying to get the extra uptick in grade. No one knows the real pops but over the last 20 years all the higher end coins have been graded perhaps with very minimal exception. Morgans and peace dollars will probably have some surface but DE Os are much easier to sell than find in 6 of the 12 years they were minted.

[O mint bug]

If a dealer cracks a slab on say a 1850 O DE and gets another 3 points he has made several thousand dollars. The old but not so true theory that a coin under AU 55 is worth more in a PCGS holder is the primary reason and when a coin crosses it is double counted. If you think dealers don't do this given the amount of money they could make if a PCGS CAC went from a 53 CAC to a NGC 55 they do. They are in the business to make money any way they can. One dealer that still pushes PCGS CAC coins is Doug Winter. I have said before I buy the coin and not the holder. The real proof of this method of maximizing the value for a coin was at the last heritage auction. Two 1855 Os AU 55 were up for auction. One was a CAC and both NGC coins. The CAC coin was hard on the eye and over graded. The non CAC 1850 O sold for about $6,000 more than the CAC coin. Why because of the eye appeal. Collectors are getting smarter and catching on to the PCGS is best theory. Just take a look at the percentage of old DEs that NGC grades relative to PCGS. Look at their financial statements and you will see their dividend is not covered with cash flow. They are boxed into a corner and have a full court press on to convince the collector " the best coins are in PCGS holders " in an effort to prop up cash flow as a CEO NEVER wants to cut or abolish a dividend as they are rapidly replaced. I doubt this will work but time will tell. Google up yahoo finance and look at the symbol CLCT. Then click on the cash flow statement, Add net income and depreciation together to get operating cash flow. The subtract the dividend payment and you will get a negative number. This in my opinion started the recent cross over program in an effort to get at least a 1 to 1 coverage ratio. I have my doubts as NGC grades more older gold DEs than PCGS at present.

 

On a final note my original post addressed the issue of over pop numbers and the cause. I still contend is cross over more than trying to get another few points but both cause double counting of a coin. It is about the marketing the PCGS holders program. I sent a 1850 O NGC coin in just to see if it would cross under the current arrangement. Prior to submission PCGS had graded 9 55s now ten. NGC had 42 on record. NGC still has 42 and PCGS now has 10. If it CACs it will be the third but it is nothing more than a shoot. I like the coin and it is the 50 o example I will keep in my collection CAC or not. It was double counted just as many of the recent coins ( last 10 years ) increase in pop have been weather it was a cross over or the occasional upgrade from say AU 53 to 55. I doubt 17 more 1850 o AU 55s can from collections never checked for value over the last ten years. I wish this were the case as some day I could get the 54 and 56 O DE, which pops of 25-30 each, and are out of my reach. I doubt that will happen. Point is I still say a majority of the older gold pop increases resulted from resubmission not being found in an old over looked collection. If they were they would be heavily abraded and not likely a AU coin with good eye appeal. The price would dip and it has done just the opposite.

[delta]

Only a thought on my part, without concrete evidence, but I suspect a decent number of the 19th century gold coins being discussed here are held in private vaults by families of old wealth, holding them not merely over the last 25+ years of active numismatic slabbing, but from even before the government gold confiscations of 1933, which they carefully avoided.

 

The current family members might have a general idea of the holdings, but it's highly unlikely they will ransack the vaults to submit their coins just for slabbing. These families of old wealth have enormous resources in land and stocks and the heirloom coins in their secure vaults on their gated estates will be among the last of their assets to be sold for any reason.

[#]

Well....I can't really speak to the New Orleans gold but can tell you that there are large collections of Carson City gold and NOT from wealthy families. I know of a set that's over 90% complete, never been slabbed or even seen by a professional numismatist. The aforementioned set has not seen the light of day or man made light since 1982. So obviously they're not in any pop reports even though several are extremely rare with at least 8 of them with pops of less than 100. No one actually knows what is still out there ie the saddle ridge hoard. Just my two cents.

[RWB]

Not sure where you are finding your information but chunks of it are a little confused.

 

Silver dollars may still be in vaults but type one DEs were largely used on the west coast and some sent to Europe, Those that went to Europe were almost all VF and EF, many of which were melted by the Brits to mint their own coins. A silver dollar I can see but DEs are a different animal. The survival rate is about one per thousand, including resubmissions. Rare Des like the 54 and 56 O have not increased in pop. The only thing that has increased significantly is the price of the O mints. As for silver dollars when I was young we used to cross the border in Mexico and trade a greenback even for Morgans and Peace dollars and the bank seemed glad to get rid of them. never had the chance to trade a $5 billion for a half eagle.

 

Frankly I wish some 54 and 56 Os would surface in any grade so I could get all 12 in the set. just don't see it happening.

 

All hoards that were found ie some 1857 Os were vf to weak xf and were quickly absorbed by the market.

 

 

Coins demanded for export were Unc or as close to new as possible. That was the only way to get full bullion value for them on receipt. Much San Francisco gold was shipped east where it could be used to supply bank credits. Only a small percentage of new SF gold went across the Pacific. A significant proportion went north to the Yukon and Alaska and circulated in Canada.

 

The Bank of England used US gold coins in its trade with Central and South America where US gold was preferred to bullion. Sovereigns were made from British colonial source bullion.

 

Melting of US gold was most common on continental Europe where the American gold was minted into local national coins.

 

Unknown hoards are – well, “unknown.” They could be discovered at anytime, or remain hidden for centuries.

[O mint bug]

I guess you are saying O mints were not of interest as many of the dates had little to none in unc minted. How do you explain the ones that did make its way back to the U.S. were almost all VE- lower end EF?