20 Million Coin Investors/Collectors in the US ?

[TonerGuy]

Here are two quotes from a story about a fraudulent boiler room coin dealer operation... Interesting story but I find the quotes by the NY Attorney General's Office more interesting...

 

"According to an Investor Alert issued by New York's attorney general, there are up to 20 million investors in coins."

 

Do you think this is an accurate estimate ?

 

and...

 

"In fact, according to the New York attorney general, many unscrupulous brokers—who are barred from selling stocks and bonds—turn to selling coins. One specific form of fraud is dealers placing a higher, false grade on coins to command high prices."

 

Do you think this is accurate as well ?

 

20 Million seems very high... and I havent met one former stockbroker coin dealer at any show in the past 15 yrs. Maybe they didnt admit though...

 

[GoldFinger1969]

It's a PR note put out by the AG to justify his budget and TV appearances cracking down on fraud.

 

Check with the ANA and other professional organizations.

[World Colonial]

Here are two quotes from a story about a fraudulent boiler room coin dealer operation... Interesting story but I find the quotes by the NY Attorney General's Office more interesting...

 

"According to an Investor Alert issued by New York's attorney general, there are up to 20 million investors in coins."

 

Do you think this is an accurate estimate ?

 

and...

 

"In fact, according to the New York attorney general, many unscrupulous brokers—who are barred from selling stocks and bonds—turn to selling coins. One specific form of fraud is dealers placing a higher, false grade on coins to command high prices."

 

Do you think this is accurate as well ?

 

20 Million seems very high... and I havent met one former stockbroker coin dealer at any show in the past 15 yrs. Maybe they didnt admit though...

 

Not even close. In the 1980's, I read in the B&M newsletter that Bowers estimated 50,000 who would pay $100 for a single coin. i have no idea where he got this number, probably just a guesstimate.

 

If it was directionally accurate, then maybe there are as many as 250,000 who will now pay up to $250 for a single coin, given the number who collect ASE and the much higher price levels

 

On the (South Africa) BidOrBuy (eBay equivalent) coin forum, a contributor posted a quote from the South Africa Coin Company claiming they had 30,000 "investors". I presume that this includes anyone who ever bought one of the absurdly overpriced Mandela coins they offered.

 

I do not believe it is remotely accurate of the level of real collectors or even "investors" who are buying what most real collectors of South Africa coinage actually buy who are spending "real money", which is ZAR first and Union second. I interpret it as potentially the number of dupes they have fooled into buying their overpriced inventory as a speculation.

[e1cnr]

All of my nieces and nephews have the state quarters, and they did not come from me.

 

I would bet over half of the 'coin collectors' are state quarter accumulators...

[jpcienkus]

All of my nieces and nephews have the state quarters, and they did not come from me.

 

I would bet over half of the 'coin collectors' are state quarter accumulators...

 

I agee they are adding in state quarter collectors, but by definition, isn't that coin collecting? Now are there that many Numismatists? No way. I don't consider my self a Numismatist, just a collector trying to learn as much about the hobby and coins as I can.

[TonerGuy]

Do any of the large coins shows put out estimates of attendees ?

 

I would think that even 250,000 "active"collectors (excluding state quarter collectors) might be a tad high.

 

I wonder what the circulation numbers are for some of the coins mags... Since there are some dealers on this board that advertise in them... do you guys know what the circulation figures are for each of the coin mags ?

 

 

[RWB]

As noted above, depends on the definition of "collector" and "investor" (or fool).

[GoldFinger1969]

Do any of the large coins shows put out estimates of attendees ?

I would think that even 250,000 "active"collectors (excluding state quarter collectors) might be a tad high.

 

I'm going to take a wild stab and say the bigger ones like FUN get a few thousand ?

[e1cnr]

There is over a half a million auctions/BINs on eBay now - they must have at least a million sales in a month. There must be quite a few collectors / accumulators just from that venue.

[physics-fan3.14]

If you include the people who will pick an occasional state quarter out of circulation as "collectors" and the people who buy a couple of ASE's or AGE's as "investors," then it is entirely plausible that the number may be larger than you think.

 

Though, 20 million seems a bit high, even with that loose definition.

[TonerGuy]

Not that this is a proper definition but I was talking more about "active collectors."

 

Those that spend as little as a few hundred to a thousands of dollars (or millions) per year on buying coins (including ASEs and US Mint products).

 

Those persons that might have a subscription to a coin magazine or visit a coin website such as this or even dealers websites.

 

Also, those persons that might be members of a local or national coin club.

 

Those persons that e1cnr refers to that might purchase coins off Ebay or bid on coins on GC, HA or any other auction site.

[James_OldeTowne]

The true size of the "serious" collector community is much smaller than what that headline would imply. I'd bet that there are on the order of maybe 10,000 hardcore collectors, and 100,000 "club level" collectors.

 

That said, I could easily believe that 20,000,000 people have bought a coin of some type at some point in their lives (likely from the U.S. mint).

[FishyOne]

If you include the people who will pick an occasional state quarter out of circulation as "collectors" and the people who buy a couple of ASE's or AGE's as "investors," then it is entirely plausible that the number may be larger than you think.

 

Though, 20 million seems a bit high, even with that loose definition.

 

I agree. They are stretching to get to 20 million but I can see how they get there. In my immediate family (siblings, nieces, nephews, and their kids) we have 4 collectors out of 20 total people. Active collectors who buy/sell at least one coin per year for collection/investment purposes would likely be under 5 million people in the U.S.

 

5 million out of 320 million people is 1 in 64.

[DaveG]

I'd agree with James.

 

I seem to recall that the Mint claimed 20 million coin collectors when they were marketing the state quarters program and I'd agree with that, if that number includes everyone who's ever saved a state quarter.

 

As far as more active or knowledgeable collectors (however you want to define them), I also recall that Coin World had about 50,000 to 80,000 subscribers a decade or so ago.

 

So I'd say that 20 million people have at least saved a state quarter, 100,000 know what a Mercury dime is and 10,000 read numismatic publications, go to shows, have read more than the Red Book, etc.

[AcesKings]

It states "UP TO" 20 million. In that light, 50 people are on the way UP TO 20 million.

[RWB]

Historically there has always been considerable disparity between those who collect coins and those who are coin collectors.

[19Lyds]

I don't think that the estimate is all that far from reality since there are literally thousands upon thousands of "closet" coin collectors out there.

 

How else would those TV Hucksters survive?

 

How else could these boiler room sales houses survive?

 

I mean, its not like every coin collector logs on to the common TPG sites and you have to admit that TV Sales do hit a lot of people that never "visit" a coin forum.

[joes2001]

I think you're a numismatist. There's no hard and fast defnition for this term other than one who studies and/or collects coins and related things. You do this, so you're a numismatist, even if you don't call yourself that. There's no protection or licensing for this name, numismatist, as there is for terms like doctor, nurse, licensed social worker, etc. Bowers just did an article saying all this in coin world online, not too long ago.

[GoldFinger1969]

The true size of the "serious" collector community is much smaller than what that headline would imply. I'd bet that there are on the order of maybe 10,000 hardcore collectors, and 100,000 "club level" collectors.

 

If you describe 'hardcore' as someone with more than a dozen coins, bullion OR numismatic....and/or someone who goes to an online auctions site at least a few times a year...or a coin show...or a dealer...or a local coin club....or reads online newspapers....I'd say it is a few hundred thousand at least.

 

I would define the other group not as 'club level' but as Occasionals....probably a few million of them.

 

Let's begin with this: if there were not millions of Occasionals, who is taking up the bulk of the millions of Morgan Silver Dollars, Saint Gaudens, etc. We're talking tens of millions of pieces here. How many have hundreds of them ? Or even dozens ? Must be lots with just a few, right ?

[GoldFinger1969]

According to The Red Book.....the number of Red Book's published peaked in 1965 @ 1.2 MM.

 

This makes sense...the Baby Boomers born right after WW II would have been in their teenage years and combined with adults, you have peak interest. I suspect the book is published in a few hundred thousand numbers today.

 

With all the online information available, no need to buy a Red Book every year. I bought my first one ever a few months ago. I doubt I'll buy another one for 2015 or 2016 UNLESS the price of gold/numismatics changes by alot which I doubt happens.

[Nutmeg Coin]

It's as big as many other hobbies. For girls and women similar interests tend toward jewelry; for guys numismatics, and other trophies of success or historical interest.

[Crohnos01]

I am not sure about how many coin collectors there are, but enough that every time I stop by my local B&M shop, they have been cleaned out of the good stuff the day before I get there... "Oh, you should have seen this really great (insert coin description here) that you would have loved... Just sold it yesterday though..."

 

As for my wife, she isn't too much for collecting jewelry. I am not sure what the name is for someone who collects sarcastic comments about their spouse who collects coins, but I am pretty sure she is one of those based on they eye rolls and comments of "you paid HOW MUCH for a fifty cent piece?"

[TonerGuy]

I do wonder how well the TV "hucksters" do as far as sales...

 

I see coin programming on one of the home shopping networks lasting all day sometimes. If those coins werent selling they wouldnt be pushing them... thats for sure.

 

It very possible that those coin shows have several hundred thousand to several millions viewers. And I would definitely call those viewers "active collectors" if in fact they are buying coins.

 

 

[Conder101]

I seem to recall that the Mint claimed 20 million coin collectors when they were marketing the state quarters program and I'd agree with that, if that number includes everyone who's ever saved a state quarter.

The Mint claimed 150 million or almost 1 out of every two people.

 

The highest attendance for the summer ANA show was around 10,000. Coin World at it's highest circulation rate was around 120,000 I think it is about half that now. The ANA has around 32,000 members. Jame's estimate of 100,000 club level members is probably a little low but not too far off and you can probably triple that for club members level that just don't join clubs. In the past I have made estimates and done calculations by various methods and I keep coming up with a figure between 1 and 2 million collectors/investors of all types and levels. (As a possible confirmation you will not that very few 20th century coins with mintages over a million tend to be able to hold a significant premium. At 20 million that would be 1 for every 20 collectors. Now I know not everyone collects the same thing, but that whole million mintage doesn't survive either. If there were 20 million collectors I would expect coins with mintages of 5 million or more to be able to hold a significant premium because there still would not be enough coins to go around. Instead there are more than enough.)

[GoldFinger1969]

If there were 20 million collectors I would expect coins with mintages of 5 million or more to be able to hold a significant premium because there still would not be enough coins to go around. Instead there are more than enough.)

 

Bingo...my thoughts exactly.

 

And if there are that many 'collectors' they're hanging out with very inexpensive coins that don't cost much money.

 

Look at all the Morgan Silver Dollars and Saint Gaudens/Liberty Double Eagles. OK, granted those are more expensive than wheat pennies and silver dollars/nickels for the most part, but if we had 20 million 'collectors' it'd mean the Top 1% or even the Top 1% of 1% (2,000 collectors) would have substantial means to absorb lots of supply.

[e1cnr]

If there were 20 million collectors I would expect coins with mintages of 5 million or more to be able to hold a significant premium because there still would not be enough coins to go around. Instead there are more than enough.)

 

Bingo...my thoughts exactly.

 

And if there are that many 'collectors' they're hanging out with very inexpensive coins that don't cost much money.

 

Look at all the Morgan Silver Dollars and Saint Gaudens/Liberty Double Eagles. OK, granted those are more expensive than wheat pennies and silver dollars/nickels for the most part, but if we had 20 million 'collectors' it'd mean the Top 1% or even the Top 1% of 1% (2,000 collectors) would have substantial means to absorb lots of supply.

 

Not my thoughts - there are so many coins that I would have no interest in owning ever, I do not think that generaliuzation applies.

 

What does it cost to get every mint offering? Is it still in the $40K - $50/yr for the last few years?

[World Colonial]

The true size of the "serious" collector community is much smaller than what that headline would imply. I'd bet that there are on the order of maybe 10,000 hardcore collectors, and 100,000 "club level" collectors.

 

If you describe 'hardcore' as someone with more than a dozen coins, bullion OR numismatic....and/or someone who goes to an online auctions site at least a few times a year...or a coin show...or a dealer...or a local coin club....or reads online newspapers....I'd say it is a few hundred thousand at least.

 

I would define the other group not as 'club level' but as Occasionals....probably a few million of them.

 

Let's begin with this: if there were not millions of Occasionals, who is taking up the bulk of the millions of Morgan Silver Dollars, Saint Gaudens, etc. We're talking tens of millions of pieces here. How many have hundreds of them ? Or even dozens ? Must be lots with just a few, right ?

 

I was using the same line of thinking that you seem to be. I don't believe that traditional benchmarks such as club members, ANA members, attendance at coin shows or subscription levels to coin magazines are representative at all. While I think the argument can be made that those who do make use of these options get more out of collecting, I do not believe any of them are necessary to be a "serious" collector unlike the 1970's or maybe even as late as the 1980's. I consider myself a "serious" collector and have only made occasional use of any of these options.

 

I also believe what I would describe as the exceptionally large number of survivors for so many US coins supports a relatively large base. While I know that some or maybe even many non-US collectors may own any number of US coins, how can the prices of so many US "key" dates be so high if the number is only in the range of 10,000 or even 100,000? I have heard estimates of 10,000 1916-D Mercury dimes, 50,000+ for the 1909-S VDB cent and so forth. All of these coins cost hundreds if not thousands of dollars. Yes, I am also aware that prices are set at the margin, but at any given time, there must be a relatively large number of these and many other similar coins for sale, as in the hundreds at least.

 

The Morgan dollar is another one. There are anywhere from thousands to hundreds of thousands in the combined census for most dates even in high grades. Yes, there are many duplicates but also many ungraded coins still available.

 

Probably the best "ballpark" number comes from the number of active buyers at Heritage, whatever the number may be. I do not recall the number and I know it includes those who are active in other fields and coin buyers outside of the US, but I would venture a guess that a disproportinately large percentage of "serious" collectors are active with them or have bought from them in the past.

[GoldFinger1969]

Probably the best "ballpark" number comes from the number of active buyers at Heritage, whatever the number may be. I do not recall the number and I know it includes those who are active in other fields and coin buyers outside of the US, but I would venture a guess that a disproportinately large percentage of "serious" collectors are active with them or have bought from them in the past.

 

I would be very interested to know how many registered bidders Heritage and the others have. My guess is most of them would have dealt with Heritage or followed them pre-Internet (but maybe not ?). Clearly, registered auction bidders for Heritage or other sites are committed coin collectors (and I'm sure that's where the Heavy Hitters buy -- plus Sotheby's etc. -- and not coin shows and local dealers ).

 

I'm sure the auction houses are the place to go for most 5, 6, and 7-figure coin purchases.

 

 

[DaveG]

Conder101,

 

You're probably right - there are more coin collectors out there than I realize.

 

What makes me sad is that if there really are about a million "active" or "serious" (or whatever you want to call them) collectors out there, why is it that most numismatic books have to really struggle to sell a couple of thousand copies.

 

Even Whitman targets sales of 5,000 or so, I understand.

 

It would be really nice if more collectors aimed to become "educated" collectors!

[CoinZip]

Heritage claims to have 861,091 bidder-members