20 Million Coin Investors/Collectors in the US ?

[GoldFinger1969]

Even Whitman targets sales of 5,000 or so, I understand.

It would be really nice if more collectors aimed to become "educated" collectors!

 

Red Book's peak was 1965 @ 1.2 MM. I suspect they sell maybe a few hundred thousand copies today ?

 

There's so much more information on the Internet that you don't need as many books. Much of the information -- not the kind of stuff that RWB writes about -- is available for free. Look at how valuable message boards like these are !!

[GoldFinger1969]

Heritage claims to have 861,091 bidder-members

 

Wow....much more than I thought. I would have guessed maybe a few thousand or at much 10,000 - 20,000. Did not realize that many people were into a specialist like Heritage; would have figured most people hit Ebay or Craigslist. I think that means there is a much larger dedicated numismatist base than some of us (me!) thought.

 

I wonder how many of those 860K actually have bid and/or won a coin in the last 10 years and how many bid/win a coin every year ?

[DaveG]

Heritage is a huge auction house nowadays and they auction a lot more than coins. I wonder how many of those 800,000+ bidders are coin bidders.

 

 

There's so much more information on the Internet that you don't need as many books. Much of the information -- not the kind of stuff that RWB writes about -- is available for free. Look at how valuable message boards like these are !!

 

GoldFinger,

 

Actually, from what I've seen, most of what's on the Internet (other than pricing info and auction catalog descriptions) isn't that much more sophisticated than what you find in the Red Book. Also, even on these message boards, you really don't know the expertise of the person who answers a question.

 

Even when you get an expert responding, you only get a quick answer - any response more than a few hundred words is much better saved for an article that one can edit before publication.

 

I'd say that anyone interested in double eagles, for example, will learn a lot more about them from Bowers' Red Book of Double Eagles than he would from the Internet and the information is a lot more reliable!

[GoldFinger1969]

Actually, from what I've seen, most of what's on the Internet (other than pricing info and auction catalog descriptions) isn't that much more sophisticated than what you find in the Red Book. Also, even on these message boards, you really don't know the expertise of the person who answers a question. Even when you get an expert responding, you only get a quick answer - any response more than a few hundred words is much better saved for an article that one can edit before publication.

 

Good point...it is valuable information, though. Maybe because I have a financial background and am used to ripping apart balance sheets and income statements I can usually tell who knows what they are talking about and who is BS'ing. A dedicated message board like CS with veteran posters is much different than just Googling a few items and reading a post by someone who might have written it 3 years ago and disappeared.

 

I'd say that anyone interested in double eagles, for example, will learn a lot more about them from Bowers' Red Book of Double Eagles than he would from the Internet and the information is a lot more reliable!

 

Yup....but I have found VERY GOOD INFORMATION on current pricing, historical premiums, and market trends from reading the back-and-forths on old threads here and elsewhere. You do have to be careful and can't take 100% of what you read as gospel -- but there is good stuff out there IF you know where to look.

[DaveG]

GoldFinger,

 

Just remember the old saying: "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing."

 

 

Maybe because I have a financial background and am used to ripping apart balance sheets and income statements I can usually tell who knows what they are talking about and who is BS'ing.

 

Yeah, I used to think that too. I decided that I may be able to tell who's BS'ing me, but it wasn't because of my financial background; rather, I went into finance because I was able to tell who was BS'ing me.

 

What you may come to appreciate is that no amount of surfing the Web will come anywhere near teaching you what you can learn from looking at hundreds of Saints (in your case) and learning when to stretch for a nicer coin or when to go for the MS-64 that's nicer than most of the MS-65s you've seen.

 

You also may not have decided whether you just want to acquire a "few" Saints or whether you will eventually decide to build a nice set of Saints or some other series. You may not make a decision on that for a decade or more.

[GoldFinger1969]

What you may come to appreciate is that no amount of surfing the Web will come anywhere near teaching you what you can learn from looking at hundreds of Saints (in your case) and learning when to stretch for a nicer coin or when to go for the MS-64 that's nicer than most of the MS-65s you've seen.

 

Yup, you nailed it. My general personal philosophy in most things is to pay up for quality in everything from breakfast cereals to real estate to suits to cars to coins.

 

When I can afford it, that is !

 

You also may not have decided whether you just want to acquire a "few" Saints or whether you will eventually decide to build a nice set of Saints or some other series. You may not make a decision on that for a decade or more.

 

If I hit Lotto or get a nice FT job, I may start it this year. If not, I may be telling you I am starting in a decade or so !

[brg5658]

Heritage claims to have 861,091 bidder-members

 

I know a large chunk of their business is coins and currency, but they are so diverse in their selling that the number of bidder-members for coins could be appreciably less than that. And, they are also not all from the USA -- I know many collectors around the world who bid in Heritage auctions.

[World Colonial]

Heritage claims to have 861,091 bidder-members

 

I know a large chunk of their business is coins and currency, but they are so diverse in their selling that the number of bidder-members for coins could be appreciably less than that. And, they are also not all from the USA -- I know many collectors around the world who bid in Heritage auctions.

 

I do not remember the details but I did see a report on their 2011 results last year. (I'm not sure 2012 had been released yet.) From what I recall, US coins represented over half their auction sales or at least near it. Considering that the average coin is probably cheaper than many (though not all) of the other fields they deal in, I suspect that the number of coin buyers based in the United States is about the same proportion, give or take 10% on either side.

 

Also, I suspect that a large proportion of their world coin buyers are also based in the United States, maybe more than half. I am one and I believe you are also. Most non-US collectors do not like graded coins, are not into the "best" grades or "conditional" rarities and are not going to pay the premiums to buy many of the graded coins Heritage sells when they can buy it for less elsewhere. I suspect essentially none of their buyers based outside the US are buying any US coins from them.

[World Colonial]

Even Whitman targets sales of 5,000 or so, I understand.

It would be really nice if more collectors aimed to become "educated" collectors!

 

Red Book's peak was 1965 @ 1.2 MM. I suspect they sell maybe a few hundred thousand copies today ?

 

There's so much more information on the Internet that you don't need as many books. Much of the information -- not the kind of stuff that RWB writes about -- is available for free. Look at how valuable message boards like these are !!

 

I do not know the subject matter of these books, but I'm not sure this should really be surprising. How many different series or specialities are there in the US coin series? Dozens easily or even more depending upon how someone defines it. I know that all of them are not equally popular but this still needs to be considered. As an example, there are probably going to be a lot more buyers for a book on Morgan dollars than colonials, patterns or territorial gold and its unlikely that there is going to be much overlap between the two. Also, some series have a higher proportion of "serious' collectors than others. In the examples I gave, I would expect the proportion for Morgan dollars (or one like it) to be much lower than the others, though the collector base is much larger.

 

The only real reference book I have is the Milled Columnarios of Central and South America covering the pillar coinage. The print run was 500 copies and to my knowledge, it did not sell out when published, as I heard second hand accounts that Ponterio Associates had a small group of them years later though for $125 versus the $65 I paid. I suspect that worldwide, more than 500 buy this series in some form, but mostly the Mexico 8R and only secondarily to others.

[CoinZip]

The ANA claims nearly 28,000 members......

 

 

[cladking]

I believe these low estimates and restrictive definitions are very offputting to a lot of collectors. A collector can put a great deal of effort into a collection and still be excluded by most definitions. Obviously the number of collectors willing to spend some arbitrary or fixed amount of money on a coin is a legitimate way toi define "collector" but when it has to be the "right" coin then it becomes exclusionary.

 

It appears that the hobby has already excluded a great number of the next generation of collectors. I'm sure we do better in person and a states collector at a coin club meeting wouldn't be shunned or ridiculed but do less well in coin shops and on the net from what I've seen. This seems to be the tone in this thread though I don't really take exception to any specific comment.

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

I believe these low estimates and restrictive definitions are very offputting to a lot of collectors. A collector can put a great deal of effort into a collection and still be excluded by most definitions. Obviously the number of collectors willing to spend some arbitrary or fixed amount of money on a coin is a legitimate way toi define "collector" but when it has to be the "right" coin then it becomes exclusionary.

 

I think that a collector has to show CONSISTENT effort over time that he/she puts into the hobby. Collecting Sacagewa or Presidential Quarters IMO for a year or two doesn't make a collector unless they take the next step. My brother used to collect coins and still has his Whitman books; is he a collector ? I think not -- he hasn't bought or looked at a coin in 20+ years.

 

I belong to several clubs and associations. There are different levels of interest and participation, one reason I want those ten 1933 Double Eagles released as I think the publicity might spike interest in the hobby. Or maybe not -- but it can't hurt.

[DaveG]

cladking,

 

Huh?

 

I think that perhaps you meant to post to another thread entirely or else you read through this one so quickly that you completely misunderstood the thread.

[Walkerfan]

cladking,

 

Huh?

 

I think that perhaps you meant to post to another thread entirely or else you read through this one so quickly that you completely misunderstood the thread.

 

He makes sense to me. He is just asking----'how do we 'define' a collector'. There are MANY different levels of collecting. Many of these 20 million are likely very casual collectors. If we want to include only 'specialists' and/or those who spend more than 10K a year on coins; well then the numbers are likely much smaller.

[GoldFinger1969]

He makes sense to me. He is just asking----'how do we 'define' a collector'. There are MANY different levels of collecting. Many of these 20 million are likely very casual collectors. If we want to include only 'specialists' and/or those who spend more than 10K a year on coins; well then the numbers are likely much smaller.

 

Exactly....to me, a collector is someone who is (1) active in buying/selling coins, or (2) active in following the coin market online or through periodicals, or (3) visits local dealers or attends coin shows or a local coin club.

 

The key to me is ACTIVITY. Someone with a million-dollar coin collection may not buy anything, may not go to his local dealer or coin shows, but I'm sure he/she is keeping abreast of the market.

[DaveG]

It was the use of "excluded" "shunned" and "ridiculed" that confused me.

 

 

What makes you think there are 20 million "collectors"?

 

 

edited to add: the above is, after all, the original question of this thread.

[James_OldeTowne]

Even Whitman targets sales of 5,000 or so, I understand.

It would be really nice if more collectors aimed to become "educated" collectors!

 

Red Book's peak was 1965 @ 1.2 MM. I suspect they sell maybe a few hundred thousand copies today ?

There's so much more information on the Internet that you don't need as many books. Much of the information -- not the kind of stuff that RWB writes about -- is available for free. Look at how valuable message boards like these are !!

I have zero facts to back this up, but my guess would be that if 1.2 million RedBooks sold in 1965, 90% of them went to people who were compelled by all the (then-)hype about roll collecting and the treasures to be found as silver was phased out of circulation. I would not expect anywhere remotely close to 1.2 million RedBook buyers to have been "serious" collectors.

 

It's kind of like saying there are 100,000 beanie-baby collectors today because "Beanie Baby Weekly" once had a circulation of 100,000.

 

Let's suppose that I believed you, and there ARE a million "serious" collectors active today. Missouri is a very average state and has 2% of the national population. Our state is often seen as a "belwether" of sorts in being reflective of an average cross-section of the nation.

 

That means we should have 2% of said collector base, which is 20,000 people, half of which live in St. Louis (which has half the state's population) - 10,000 people. For sure, there's NO WAY there are 10,000 "serious collectors" in the St. Louis area. A thousand? POSSIBLY, but I think even that's a very optimistic number.

 

And this is why I would think there really are no more than 100,000 "serious" club-level collectors active today.

[GoldFinger1969]

James, the silver angle and the demographics of the Baby Boom led to that Red Book peak.

 

I am sure they were producing 500,000 a year in the early-1970's, if I had to guess. So circulation today is probably 100,000 - 200,000 I would venture.

 

Maybe lower....dunno. Maybe someone has production/circulation numbers.

[DaveG]

Unless Whitman publishes the information in the Red Book of Red Books, they've never released anything more specific than "millions printed."

 

I remember a discussion ATS about how many Red Books are sold each year and Dentuck (Whitman's Publisher) didn't answer the question.