John Maben's Latest Market Report

[airplanenut]

Gold Glitters at $433; Type and Commems Jitter

 

 

MARKET REPORT

 

Breaking news:

 

Gold Glitters at $433; Type and Commems Jitter

 

We just returned from the Palm Beach, FL show, though I was not able to attend as we were simply too busy here at the office. Indications are that this show has the potential to be a good one. It seems silly that aside from the FUN show, Florida doesn't have a major show, so perhaps this will address that void.

 

Generic gold coins in MS62 through MS65 are red hot. So much so, that I believe it has diverted attention and money away from other areas. Without a doubt, the classic silver commemoratives market is confusing at the moment. It did start to heat up back in July but that only lasted a couple of months. I am still buying and selling lots of them, but not always at retail or even full wholesale.

 

On the other hand there aren't people lined up to dump their really nice commems and I know for a fact that certain issues, mostly those under $1000 or so, are still being quietly accumulated by a few market makers and position takers. High grade type coins (not key date collector coins) just seem to be experiencing a general lack of interest, though again, the "right" coins will quickly disappear when offered for sale.

With relatively few events between now and the FUN show, dealers will have plenty of time to build inventories and plan strategies for early 2005. It will be interesting to study prices realized in the upcoming Baltimore ANR sale, and the Heritage FUN sale. Both of these auctions will have many great coins in them, and could provide guidance for identifying market trends.

 

Where do we go from here?

 

I have been calling for $450 gold by year end, but it looks like we could see that this month. At the moment I am seeing more individuals sell their rare coins to take profits, losses, or to exchange for bullion, but I think if gold and silver continue to rise steadily into next year we will eventually see the opposite; with many investors selling bullion and then buying rare coins that they believe are undervalued.

 

We are pleased to now have our interview with Maurice Rosen available from the main menu on our home page. In the next few days, we will be adding an inventory listing and a job openings category; also accessible from our main home page menu, so add us to your favorites and check our site regularly!

 

 

NEXT REPORT:

 

Our next market report will be posted on December 5th,

following the Baltimore, MD show.

 

John Maben is always available for personal telephone consultations, free of charge to serious individuals. Call 1-800-362-9004 to schedule a phone conference at a mutually convenient time.

 

To be notified by email of the latest Market Report news, just enter your information below. We respect your privacy, so the information you provide will be closely held and will not be sold or given to a third party.

[michael]

thanks for posting this jeremy

 

a good read

 

 

michael

[gmarguli]

I was just going to make a post on this.

 

John says: Generic gold coins in MS62 through MS65 are red hot. So much so, that I believe it has diverted attention and money away from other areas.

 

I've always felt that generic gold coins in the MS62 grade were purchased only for their gold value. MS63 & MS64 were the collectors grade. MS65 is for the big boys.

 

Also, how often does the coin collecting community as a whole switch focus. Is the coin collecting community so unfocused that a rise in gold could divert them away from other areas of collecting? Or is this money from non-collectors? When gold was really hot earlier this year I saw lots of non-collectors at shows buying gold coins. They knew nothing other than they were gold.

 

Thoughts?

[John Maben]

"I've always felt that generic gold coins in the MS62 grade were purchased only for their gold value."

 

Not so on smaller gold, but perhaps on $10's and $20's...

 

The collecting community is generally more focused and switches interest less often, but what I am mainly reporting in my market reports is what is happening at this second, on the bourse floor, as driven by markets of the moment and dealer money.

 

This dealer money comes in large part from the orders they have from retail people who may not really consider themselves purely collectors, but instead gold bugs, speculators, investors, or individuals that have a general interest in coins but no immediate desire to become numismatists.

 

In addition to an inflow of money from these individuals, I also see more experienced collectors who do not want to potentially "miss the boat" doing some "re-aligning" of their holdings to include precious metals or semi numismatic items that are closely tied to metals prices. (ie: $20 St and Lib in 61,62,63)

 

John

[Oldtrader3]

I agree that some of MS61/62, $10 & $20 gold coins are purchased for gold value. IMHO, there are many Liberty and Indian dates and MM's that are quite scarce in MS grades. I own quite a few that were bought because of their scarcity, rather than gold content.

 

If you try and build a set of these coins, you will find that only about 40% of $10.00 Indian and $20.00 Saint dates/MM's are available as "generic" coins in decent condition and strike. Many of the less common dates sell way over sheet, when they are available at all, in MS or nice AU condition.

 

IMHO, building a set of almost any Indian gold denomination in MS condition by date and MM is a tough proposition. Maybe collectors are finally realizing just how challenging U.S. gold collecting is.