Saint Question

[CSdot]

For those with experience collecting or watching the market for Saint Gaudens $20 Double Eagles, does the current price of MS65 Saints seem reasonable? Said another way, did the numismatic premiums on MS65 Saints just compress as bullion prices rose two years ago, then go back to the norm now that bullion prices have dropped? Should we expect the prices of MS65 Saints to drop the longer gold stays at these levels?

 

I asked a question last week about pricing on a 1927 PCGS certified MS65 Saint, and it seemed the consensus was that the coin should cost no more than $2,000. It's one thing to pay a $200 numismatic premium when gold is $1,800 per ounce. It is another to pay a $700 numismatic premium when gold is $1,300 an ounce. However, if the $700 numismatic premium is the norm, and $200 premium is the anomoly, then that is something I would like to know.

 

So for those with experience collecting or watching the market for Double Eagles, does the current prices you are seeing for MS65 Saints seem reasonable? Unfortunately I have already filled the holes for most of the common dates, so the premiums I am seeing over spot are much larger than $700. Knowing whether this pricing is historically consistent will be very helpful, as I am trying to decide whether to push forward, or if I should just set this set aside for now and work on something else?

 

Thanks.

[Raisethis2]

I"m not a gold guy and my opinion is limited in value however, I recall my local coin shop operator pointing out that on many gold coins a couple of years ago the values between bullion pieces and MS 63, MS 64, MS 65 was just a few bucks. It was an amazing situation that I think was pretty short lived.

 

To answer your question I think prices were briefly very compacted together.

 

 

[MarkFeld]

I"m not a gold guy and my opinion is limited in value however, I recall my local coin shop operator pointing out that on many gold coins a couple of years ago the values between bullion pieces and MS 63, MS 64, MS 65 was just a few bucks. It was an amazing situation that I think was pretty short lived.

 

To answer your question I think prices were briefly very compacted together.

 

I don't know what he meant by "just a few bucks", but I have never seen the price spreads narrow enough to qualify for proper usage of that term.

[MarkFeld]

For those with experience collecting or watching the market for Saint Gaudens $20 Double Eagles, does the current price of MS65 Saints seem reasonable? Said another way, did the numismatic premiums on MS65 Saints just compress as bullion prices rose two years ago, then go back to the norm now that bullion prices have dropped? Should we expect the prices of MS65 Saints to drop the longer gold stays at these levels?

 

I asked a question last week about pricing on a 1927 PCGS certified MS65 Saint, and it seemed the consensus was that the coin should cost no more than $2,000. It's one thing to pay a $200 numismatic premium when gold is $1,800 per ounce. It is another to pay a $700 numismatic premium when gold is $1,300 an ounce. However, if the $700 numismatic premium is the norm, and $200 premium is the anomoly, then that is something I would like to know.

 

So for those with experience collecting or watching the market for Double Eagles, does the current prices you are seeing for MS65 Saints seem reasonable? Unfortunately I have already filled the holes for most of the common dates, so the premiums I am seeing over spot are much larger than $700. Knowing whether this pricing is historically consistent will be very helpful, as I am trying to decide whether to push forward, or if I should just set this set aside for now and work on something else?

 

Thanks.

 

I don't recall specific premiums that MS65 common date Saints have brought, relative to the price of gold. However, while I might be mistaken, my recollection is that when gold was trading in the $1800-$1900 range, the price for MS65 Saints was still hundreds of dollars higher (perhaps in the mid $2000 range). And I don't remember a time when the price of the coins was (only) $200 more than the price of gold.

 

Regarding better date MS65 Saints - they tend to trade, based much more on their numismatic, as opposed to their bullion value. So they are far less likely to be significantly impacted by the price of gold. Consequently, it does not surprise me in the least that you are seeing premiums for them in excess of $700. Nor is that unusual.

[GoldFinger1969]

Just want to offer my (belated) thoughts here as I just joined the site.....as a financial guy, I am well-versed in premiums to underlying bullion and market values.

 

Markets can change on a dime (no pun intended). At times the spreads take on ABSOLUTE dollar premium; this is usually the case when prices are stable and/or rising. At other times, when prices for bullion are falling, a RATIO premium is more likely.

 

It all depends on the market. Prices tend to be sticky on the downside, so when gold falls from $1,900 to $1,200 you would expect the premiums to remain sticky and for sellers to try and maintain prices. This leads to the ratio INCREASING as bullion prices fall.

 

Keep in mind that the bullion value of the coin tracks spot gold very quickly but the numismatic premium is determined by supply/demand from collectors. These buyers tend to not be as fickle as bullion buyers.

 

At the extremes, if gold fell to $500/oz, I would not expect a St. Gaudens premium to still be $700; but it might not be $100-$150 which would be the 20-25% premium we saw in 2011. Maybe something in-between.

 

Conversely, if gold shot up to $4,000....I would be shocked if that MS 65 coin you liked only would cost $4,700. It's going to probably cost $5,500 or more.

 

Bottom Line: The coin will cost the bullion spot price plus the numismatic premium, and while one adjusts daily, the other is a lagging variable with a different supply/demand dynamic. Ratio pricing is more likely at low prices or in a falling market; absolute premium pricing during a stable market; and when prices are rising the market moves from absolute to ratio pricing.

 

The market forces are not linear: when prices are low, public interest for bullion is low but NOT from the collector side. Conversely, when prices are rising public interest for bullion can overwhelm the collector side (bullish or bearish). This is what happened when lots of savvy dealers unloaded to the public in 1980 when gold hit $800 (up 20-fold in 10 years) and silver hit $50 (up 40-fold in 10 years). Any coin enthusiasts who bought at the peak were underwater for decades because of the public.

 

Hope this sheds a bit of light from a financial POV.

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

For those with experience collecting or watching the market for Saint Gaudens $20 Double Eagles, does the current price of MS65 Saints seem reasonable? Said another way, did the numismatic premiums on MS65 Saints just compress as bullion prices rose two years ago, then go back to the norm now that bullion prices have dropped? Should we expect the prices of MS65 Saints to drop the longer gold stays at these levels? I asked a question last week about pricing on a 1927 PCGS certified MS65 Saint, and it seemed the consensus was that the coin should cost no more than $2,000. It's one thing to pay a $200 numismatic premium when gold is $1,800 per ounce. It is another to pay a $700 numismatic premium when gold is $1,300 an ounce. However, if the $700 numismatic premium is the norm, and $200 premium is the anomoly, then that is something I would like to know. So for those with experience collecting or watching the market for Double Eagles, does the current prices you are seeing for MS65 Saints seem reasonable? Unfortunately I have already filled the holes for most of the common dates, so the premiums I am seeing over spot are much larger than $700. Knowing whether this pricing is historically consistent will be very helpful, as I am trying to decide whether to push forward, or if I should just set this set aside for now and work on something else? Thanks.

 

I don't recall specific premiums that MS65 common date Saints have brought, relative to the price of gold. However, while I might be mistaken, my recollection is that when gold was trading in the $1800-$1900 range, the price for MS65 Saints was still hundreds of dollars higher (perhaps in the mid $2000 range). And I don't remember a time when the price of the coins was (only) $200 more than the price of gold.

 

Regarding better date MS65 Saints - they tend to trade, based much more on their numismatic, as opposed to their bullion value. So they are far less likely to be significantly impacted by the price of gold. Consequently, it does not surprise me in the least that you are seeing premiums for them in excess of $700. Nor is that unusual.

 

I was going to start a Numismatic Premium Thread, but since I wanted to specifically address Saints, I'll post it here.

 

I found this from the CAC website:

 

"...in January 2000, gold traded at $280 per ounce. Recently, though it had risen to over $800 per ounce, during the same period the Grey Sheet bid for an MS 65 1922 $20 Saint fell from $3120 to $1650. Coin collectors and investors had been told that the best way to participate in a rise in the price of gold would be through rare gold coins, as they would increase in value by a greater percentage than gold bullion. This proved to be true with a number of especially rare gold coins, but not for the MS 65 1922 $20 Saint and a multitude of other coins."

 

That article must be from early-2008 when gold crossed $800. Having dealt with many collectors of coins and wealthy individuals, I can say that when times are very good and people are flush with cash, you will see Noveau Rich spend on trophy items: art, homes, sport teams...and coins. In January 2000 you had the height of the Internet Bubble and lots of people in NY and CA (big coin areas) suddenly found their wealth having gone up 10 or 20 or 100-fold in a few years. The market was still doing OK in early-2008 but it was not the bubble of riches it had been in the years leading up to 2000. So I am not surprised that the premiums for some Saints and coins fell during that time or failed to maintain their premium in absolute dollars or percent (though probably not suffering as big a falloff as the 1922 Saint).

 

Now....there is quite likely something more specific that affected the premiums for Saints. Although the specific pricing for Saints above surprised me, unless a bunch of Saints were shaken loose from holders (more supply), I think that the premium in 2000 (almost 1,000%) was just too high for a common coin.

 

I saw something interesting when the SS Central America coins came out in 2001. The Liberty re-strike was 2.5 ounces of gold with a bullion value of about $700 or so. It sold for $5,000. A few years ago, I picked one up for $4,400 or so when gold was trading at $1,600. The premium fell from 700% to about 12%. The initial premiums for all the shipwreck items -- originals and new creations -- were pushed up because of hype and publicity. A great story does NOT make for a great investment !

 

I have seen many premiums on everything from baseball cards to investments (stocks, bonds, real estate) fluctuate above fair value and/or intrinsic value. For a numismatic coin, intrinsic value would be bullion value. So while the extent of the premium dissipation was probably an outlier, I certainly wouldn't have expected to see that particular Saint Gauden trading for under $1,000 in 2000, even with a 200-300% premium. Collector demand alone probably would sustain a premium price well above that. OTOH, when gold had moved up sharply alot of wealth had been lost in the stock and real estate bear markets. No way that St. Gaudens would sell at the same 2000 premium (close to $8,000 if it did).

 

Importantly, keep in mind that by 2008 the Internet had become much more popular than in January 2000 and lots more information on pricing and values for specific coins and numismatics in general had collapsed premiums for all but those which merited such premiums. 30-40 years ago when I first started collecting the only information was via magazines (dated info), TV (sporadic and rare), coin shows (tough to bicycle 200 miles to a show unless Mom or Dad drove me ), and friends/collectors/dealers you knew. Back then, I could get a few prices within an hour if I made a bunch of calls or drove around for a few hours. Today, I can get a few dozens prices in 5 minutes off the Internet.

 

I have had financial clients and associates purchase St. Gaudens over the last 20 years and have asked many to RSVP with their purchase prices over the years (I forgot or never asked initially). I'll be able to report back on some premiums paid.

 

Keep This In Mind: Coin collecting numbers generally INCREASES over time, with new members offsetting the deceased. These individuals tend to have more $$$ to buy -- both from their own $$$ and inheritances -- and many want to buy quality numismatics and bullion. They know that with no new classics being produced -- unlike all the new gold and silver coins minted each year (shades of all the new baseball card lineups that flooded the market in the 1990's) -- that paying a 50-100% or more premium for a quality coin like a St. Gaudens makes more sense than buying animal gold coins or MS70 silvers marked up 300%. Or at least I hope so.

 

So for those of us who buy quality numismatic coins, they are likely to hold their value and appreciate over time as long as you pay a reasonable price. Even if you buy at the wrong time in the market (bullion too high and/or premium too high), you are likely to recoup your investment over time if the coin is quality. For the most part, you can't control the bullion price and with so much more information the ability of dealers to overcharge and collect outsized premiums seems greatly reduced.

 

There are anomalies in every market: limited supply, collectors who HAVE to have a certain coin, wholesalers/dealers pushing particular coins on unsuspecting masses, etc. But by and large you shouldn't see the kinds of premiums on the Saint Gaudens cited above in 2000 or future shipwrecks like the SS Central America.

 

Of course, markets can ultimately do whatever they want. As John Maynard Keynes once said, "the market can remain irrational longer than you remain solvent."

 

So be patient and let the prices come to YOU. If you see something you really want and a few bucks won't make a difference and you're not sure you'll see another one as good anytime soon, sure, go ahead and buy. But thankfully there are very few inelastic demand (price doesn't matter) buyers of coins so if you feel something is too high, chances are others may follow and the price may come back to you. Just look at all the St. Gaudens coins being offered without any bids on Ebay -- not outrageously priced, but a bit too high for many who will be happy with ANY year of that type or any other gold coin, too. So if those sellers want cash, they're gonna have to cut their price.

 

And that's when you pounce.

[MarkFeld]

For those with experience collecting or watching the market for Saint Gaudens $20 Double Eagles, does the current price of MS65 Saints seem reasonable? Said another way, did the numismatic premiums on MS65 Saints just compress as bullion prices rose two years ago, then go back to the norm now that bullion prices have dropped? Should we expect the prices of MS65 Saints to drop the longer gold stays at these levels? I asked a question last week about pricing on a 1927 PCGS certified MS65 Saint, and it seemed the consensus was that the coin should cost no more than $2,000. It's one thing to pay a $200 numismatic premium when gold is $1,800 per ounce. It is another to pay a $700 numismatic premium when gold is $1,300 an ounce. However, if the $700 numismatic premium is the norm, and $200 premium is the anomoly, then that is something I would like to know. So for those with experience collecting or watching the market for Double Eagles, does the current prices you are seeing for MS65 Saints seem reasonable? Unfortunately I have already filled the holes for most of the common dates, so the premiums I am seeing over spot are much larger than $700. Knowing whether this pricing is historically consistent will be very helpful, as I am trying to decide whether to push forward, or if I should just set this set aside for now and work on something else? Thanks.

 

I don't recall specific premiums that MS65 common date Saints have brought, relative to the price of gold. However, while I might be mistaken, my recollection is that when gold was trading in the $1800-$1900 range, the price for MS65 Saints was still hundreds of dollars higher (perhaps in the mid $2000 range). And I don't remember a time when the price of the coins was (only) $200 more than the price of gold.

 

Regarding better date MS65 Saints - they tend to trade, based much more on their numismatic, as opposed to their bullion value. So they are far less likely to be significantly impacted by the price of gold. Consequently, it does not surprise me in the least that you are seeing premiums for them in excess of $700. Nor is that unusual.

 

I was going to start a Numismatic Premium Thread, but since I wanted to specifically address Saints, I'll post it here.

 

I found this from the CAC website:

 

"...in January 2000, gold traded at $280 per ounce. Recently, though it had risen to over $800 per ounce, during the same period the Grey Sheet bid for an MS 65 1922 $20 Saint fell from $3120 to $1650. Coin collectors and investors had been told that the best way to participate in a rise in the price of gold would be through rare gold coins, as they would increase in value by a greater percentage than gold bullion. This proved to be true with a number of especially rare gold coins, but not for the MS 65 1922 $20 Saint and a multitude of other coins."

 

That article must be from early-2008 when gold crossed $800. Having dealt with many collectors of coins and wealthy individuals, I can say that when times are very good and people are flush with cash, you will see Noveau Rich spend on trophy items: art, homes, sport teams...and coins. In January 2000 you had the height of the Internet Bubble and lots of people in NY and CA (big coin areas) suddenly found their wealth having gone up 10 or 20 or 100-fold in a few years. The market was still doing OK in early-2008 but it was not the bubble of riches it had been in the years leading up to 2000. So I am not surprised that the premiums for some Saints and coins fell during that time or failed to maintain their premium in absolute dollars or percent (though probably not suffering as big a falloff as the 1922 Saint).

 

Now....there is quite likely something more specific that affected the premiums for Saints. Although the specific pricing for Saints above surprised me, unless a bunch of Saints were shaken loose from holders (more supply), I think that the premium in 2000 (almost 1,000%) was just too high for a common coin.

 

I saw something interesting when the SS Central America coins came out in 2001. The Liberty re-strike was 2.5 ounces of gold with a bullion value of about $700 or so. It sold for $5,000. A few years ago, I picked one up for $4,400 or so when gold was trading at $1,600. The premium fell from 700% to about 12%. The initial premiums for all the shipwreck items -- originals and new creations -- were pushed up because of hype and publicity. A great story does NOT make for a great investment !

 

I have seen many premiums on everything from baseball cards to investments (stocks, bonds, real estate) fluctuate above fair value and/or intrinsic value. For a numismatic coin, intrinsic value would be bullion value. So while the extent of the premium dissipation was probably an outlier, I certainly wouldn't have expected to see that particular Saint Gauden trading for under $1,000 in 2000, even with a 200-300% premium. Collector demand alone probably would sustain a premium price well above that. OTOH, when gold had moved up sharply alot of wealth had been lost in the stock and real estate bear markets. No way that St. Gaudens would sell at the same 2000 premium (close to $8,000 if it did).

 

Importantly, keep in mind that by 2008 the Internet had become much more popular than in January 2000 and lots more information on pricing and values for specific coins and numismatics in general had collapsed premiums for all but those which merited such premiums. 30-40 years ago when I first started collecting the only information was via magazines (dated info), TV (sporadic and rare), coin shows (tough to bicycle 200 miles to a show unless Mom or Dad drove me ), and friends/collectors/dealers you knew. Back then, I could get a few prices within an hour if I made a bunch of calls or drove around for a few hours. Today, I can get a few dozens prices in 5 minutes off the Internet.

 

I have had financial clients and associates purchase St. Gaudens over the last 20 years and have asked many to RSVP with their purchase prices over the years (I forgot or never asked initially). I'll be able to report back on some premiums paid.

 

Keep This In Mind: Coin collecting numbers generally INCREASES over time, with new members offsetting the deceased. These individuals tend to have more $$$ to buy -- both from their own $$$ and inheritances -- and many want to buy quality numismatics and bullion. They know that with no new classics being produced -- unlike all the new gold and silver coins minted each year (shades of all the new baseball card lineups that flooded the market in the 1990's) -- that paying a 50-100% or more premium for a quality coin like a St. Gaudens makes more sense than buying animal gold coins or MS70 silvers marked up 300%. Or at least I hope so.

 

So for those of us who buy quality numismatic coins, they are likely to hold their value and appreciate over time as long as you pay a reasonable price. Even if you buy at the wrong time in the market (bullion too high and/or premium too high), you are likely to recoup your investment over time if the coin is quality. For the most part, you can't control the bullion price and with so much more information the ability of dealers to overcharge and collect outsized premiums seems greatly reduced.

 

There are anomalies in every market: limited supply, collectors who HAVE to have a certain coin, wholesalers/dealers pushing particular coins on unsuspecting masses, etc. But by and large you shouldn't see the kinds of premiums on the Saint Gaudens cited above in 2000 or future shipwrecks like the SS Central America.

 

Of course, markets can ultimately do whatever they want. As John Maynard Keynes once said, "the market can remain irrational longer than you remain solvent."

 

So be patient and let the prices come to YOU. If you see something you really want and a few bucks won't make a difference and you're not sure you'll see another one as good anytime soon, sure, go ahead and buy. But thankfully there are very few inelastic demand (price doesn't matter) buyers of coins so if you feel something is too high, chances are others may follow and the price may come back to you. Just look at all the St. Gaudens coins being offered without any bids on Ebay -- not outrageously priced, but a bit too high for many who will be happy with ANY year of that type or any other gold coin, too. So if those sellers want cash, they're gonna have to cut their price.

 

And that's when you pounce.

 

It is important to realize that 1922 Saints do not represent a common date/generic issue for the series. So they probably don't belong in a conversation about premiums for Saints. At least not unless the discussion is one regarding premiums for common dates vs. non-common dates.

[GoldFinger1969]

It is important to realize that 1922 Saints do not represent a common date/generic issue for the series. So they probably don't belong in a conversation about premiums for Saints. At least not unless the discussion is one regarding premiums for common dates vs. non-common dates.

 

Good point....I wouldn't extrapolate the 1922 situation to other coins or even the other Saints (the 1922-P is pretty normal; the 1922-S is much rarer from what I see). But I felt the collapse of the premium over a time when gold went nearly tripled was very instructive.

 

Unlike stocks/bonds and even real estate, liquid pricing and historical premiums are not easily obtainable so you just have to do your homework and remember that any premium can in theory dissipate.

[GoldFinger1969]

CSDot, when you first created this thread gold was about $1,350...today it's in the low-$1,200's.

 

Have you seen any absolute or relative price drops for the coins and/or the premiums you were trying to acquire ?

 

What about for your other recently purchased St. Gaudens -- have you checked their price to buy/sell and tracked it vs. the gold price (thereby seeing what has happened with the premiums)

[CSdot]

CSDot, when you first created this thread gold was about $1,350...today it's in the low-$1,200's.

 

Have you seen any absolute or relative price drops for the coins and/or the premiums you were trying to acquire ?

 

What about for your other recently purchased St. Gaudens -- have you checked their price to buy/sell and tracked it vs. the gold price (thereby seeing what has happened with the premiums)

 

Prices real have not changed that dramatically. Just looking on ebay for MS65 Saints, your really common years (1924-28) in this grade should run you around $2,000. Your 1911D, 1914S and 1915S go for around $2,300. 1910D, 1923D for $2,500. 1914D at $2,750. 1916S goes for $2,800-$3,000. 1907 and 1911S $3,500-$3,900.

 

These are ebay prices, which means you can find them for less at shows or your regular dealer.

[GoldFinger1969]

Good info, CS, thanks !

 

These are ebay prices, which means you can find them for less at shows or your regular dealer.

 

My experience (about 2-3 years watching) has been except for the coins with multiple bids....the BUY IT NOWs and the offerings with a high reserve may NOT attract any bids. Either the seller has to cut the price OR they won't sell the coin (or they have to keep re-listing and hope they get a buyer eventually or that gold prices increase to help their coin become 'cheaper').

 

I agree with you on common Saint pricing. I paid $1,800 for mine, but my dealer knows I regularly buy from him and bring him referrals so I know he was giving me a fair price. I have NOT seen similarly-rated coins on Ebay getting activity at $2,000 but have seen some MS 64's and 63's going for $1,400-$1,600. I think $1,750-$1,900 gets you some bids or inquiries.

 

I don't know what the folks listing the MS 65's for $2,200-$2,400 are hoping for. They are high by a few hundred dollars. You could get away with this 15-20 years ago or earlier but anybody already looking at an online site like Ebay is most certainly aware of pricing from the site itself or other web auctions.

[CSdot]

Goldfinger- I agree completely. The ones that really have me scratching my head are the ebayers who amend their starting price when you inquire about the item.

 

There was a 1916s Saint in MS65 on there a few weeks back with a starting figure of $2,800, a number that still seemed on the high side to me. Seller only had 15 transactions on eBay (I like to see 100+ with many of those being good feedback sales of similar level coins), so I sent him a PM asking a generic question about the coin, not the price, to make sure he was legit. Seems my inquiry inspired him to raised the starting price to $3k. That turned me off on the coin. Out of curiosity, I watched him renew his listing week after week for a few weeks, then the guy finally gave up and let the listing expire.

 

I suspect that he would have gotten his desired price if he had set the initial bid at $2,000. Maybe when gold goes back up, if it goes back up, he will sell for that higher price?

[GoldFinger1969]

CS, a guy like that is a dumb seller, just like there are dumb buyers. I've run into 1 or 2 like that...to think that getting an inquiry is cause to raise your price is idiotic. If he wanted $3,000 all along, then set that as the reserve price. Don't raise the price because someone e-mailed you a question. You hadn't even bid !!

 

Guys like that are probably fixated on prices from a few years ago when gold was just under $2,000. They're like homeowners who held out for 2006 prices in 2008 and 2009. They don't realize that markets can correct on the downside and upside.

 

I intend to be very cautious if or when I buy a Saint online as I would be relying on pictures to augment the TPG rating. I have never bought any coin online for over $200 online, so when you pay 10x that amount you increase the amount you may overpay and have to exercise extra caution.

[GoldFinger1969]

Oh yeah...CS, that 1916-S should go for about what my 1924 did according to The Red Book, maybe $2,000 tops. You were smart to walk away IMO, even though I see other Ebayers asking about the same price. But that's the asks, I don't see bids.

 

Sometimes 1 or 2 people convince themselves they have something a bit rarer and they ask for a big premium to the market. At this time of the year, folks are flush with cash so sellers tend to be more aggressive. Let's see what some of these coins are going for in a few months when it's warmer out if gold is still in the $1,200's.

[MarkFeld]

Oh yeah...CS, that 1916-S should go for about what my 1924 did according to The Red Book, maybe $2,000 tops. You were smart to walk away IMO, even though I see other Ebayers asking about the same price. But that's the asks, I don't see bids.

 

Sometimes 1 or 2 people convince themselves they have something a bit rarer and they ask for a big premium to the market. At this time of the year, folks are flush with cash so sellers tend to be more aggressive. Let's see what some of these coins are going for in a few months when it's warmer out if gold is still in the $1,200's.

 

Sorry, but I believe it is irresponsible to say "that 1916-S should go for about what my 1924 did according to The Red Book, maybe $2,000 tops".

 

Currently, the sight-unseen bid (which is $2200) for a 1916-S is approximately $525 higher than for a 1924. And the former typically sells for several hundred dollars higher than the latter. Additionally, Red Book prices are not a good way to determine present market values.

[GoldFinger1969]

Sorry, but I believe it is irresponsible to say "that 1916-S should go for about what my 1924 did according to The Red Book, maybe $2,000 tops".Currently, the sight-unseen bid (which is $2200) for a 1916-S is approximately $525 higher than for a 1924. And the former typically sells for several hundred dollars higher than the latter. Additionally, Red Book prices are not a good way to determine present market values.

 

Agreed, the price of bullion has moved and so has the numismatic market.

 

I meant "about what my 1924 did" within reason, like 10-30% or so.

 

If recent prices on those and the Red/Blue book prices are close (they are) then I don't think the RETAIL price should differ by 50% or more (which it does, at least by Asked/Offering prices on Ebay).

 

I believe in free markets so if they can get close to $3,000 for a 1916-S MS65 or so, then I believe that's the market. I'm just not convinced the market is there just yet.

 

But your point is well-taken, I was a bit sloppy with my price analogy.

[CSdot]

Those of us who have been doing this for a while know that the editors of the Red Book paint the prices of some series with a pretty wide brush, so I am not sure it's fair to accuse GF1969 of being "irresponsible" for a comment that was intended to be helpful. That being said, my experience has been that a 1916S Saint in MS65 commands a premium over a similarly graded 1924 Saint.

[CSdot]

Just had lunch with the president of my state's coin club who is flying out for the FUN show tomorrow. He knows I am interested in this series, so I expect he will be texting me with his findings from the show.

[RWB]

A future issue of the Journal of Numismatic Research will have detailed research articles about the survival of US gold coins. In some instances, the number of pieces extant as of 1934 has been determined. Most, however, are much less precise. Included is a summary of the US gold held by domestic and foreign banks which helps us understand why double eagles are so common.

[GoldFinger1969]

Those of us who have been doing this for a while know that the editors of the Red Book paint the prices of some series with a pretty wide brush, so I am not sure it's fair to accuse GF1969 of being "irresponsible" for a comment that was intended to be helpful. That being said, my experience has been that a 1916S Saint in MS65 commands a premium over a similarly graded 1924 Saint.

 

Agreed....no offense was taken by MF's comment, I know what he was trying to do. The prices are different by more than a miniscule amount, so I was a bit sloppy.

 

Let's see what the MS65's get in upcoming auctions and some coin shows I'll be checking out. I still think it'll be closer to $2,000 than $3,000 but the market will determine if I am right.

[MarkFeld]

Those of us who have been doing this for a while know that the editors of the Red Book paint the prices of some series with a pretty wide brush, so I am not sure it's fair to accuse GF1969 of being "irresponsible" for a comment that was intended to be helpful. That being said, my experience has been that a 1916S Saint in MS65 commands a premium over a similarly graded 1924 Saint.

 

Agreed....no offense was taken by MF's comment, I know what he was trying to do. The prices are different by more than a miniscule amount, so I was a bit sloppy.

 

Let's see what the MS65's get in upcoming auctions and some coin shows I'll be checking out. I still think it'll be closer to $2,000 than $3,000 but the market will determine if I am right.

 

I'm glad you did not take offense.

 

Prices for 1916-S's could end up being closer to $2000 than to $3000, but I don't expect it. And, as mentioned previously, currently there is an unseen dealer bid price of $2200. That should serve as a floor and you're not going to get them for $2000.

[GoldFinger1969]

Prices for 1916-S's could end up being closer to $2000 than to $3000, but I don't expect it. And, as mentioned previously, currently there is an unseen dealer bid price of $2200. That should serve as a floor and you're not going to get them for $2000.

 

As someone in the business 24/7, I will take your word over mine in guestimating where the market is. As my specialty is investments, if someone tried to tell me where the 10-year Treasury yield or the S&P 500 was at and they hadn't looked at either in a few weeks, well......

 

Mark, as a general rule, when times are flush -- Internet Boom of 2000, Real Estate/Stocks in 2000's, Social Media Stocks Today -- do you see an increase from newly enriched buyers who just want to spend $50,000 or $100,000 or more on a bunch of coins and just tell an advisor "just buy it so I can put it in my safe" or stuff like that ? I am talking price-insensitive buyers for most of the stuff we see in collectibles (not the super-high end stuff which involves 6 or 7 figures).

 

When I worked in some Private Banks, we'd see people cashing in after a stock IPO and they were flush with million or even tens of millions of dollars. First thing they wanted was a nice house (or houses), then cars and stuff like that, and down the line art and/or coins (which also serve as investments). I remember back in 1999 we had one of the early Amazon.com investors and he suddenly had like $100 MM in his account. The Relationship Manager who I worked with was running up and down 5th Avenue in NYC to get up-to-speed on coins because the guy wanted a few hundred thousand in gold coins and the RM had no freakin' idea what to buy, bullion or numismatic, new or old or very old, etc. I wish I had kept in touch with what he eventually bought but I am sure he spent 6-figures or more without giving it a second thought. Someone like that wouldn't care if the price of the 1916-S was overpriced by $1,500 or not -- he'd just want to buy the damn thing, tell his client he got it, and get back in the office or back home.

[CSdot]

Prices for 1916-S's could end up being closer to $2000 than to $3000, but I don't expect it. And, as mentioned previously, currently there is an unseen dealer bid price of $2200. That should serve as a floor and you're not going to get them for $2000.

 

As someone in the business 24/7, I will take your word over mine in guestimating where the market is. As my specialty is investments, if someone tried to tell me where the 10-year Treasury yield or the S&P 500 was at and they hadn't looked at either in a few weeks, well......

 

Mark, as a general rule, when times are flush -- Internet Boom of 2000, Real Estate/Stocks in 2000's, Social Media Stocks Today -- do you see an increase from newly enriched buyers who just want to spend $50,000 or $100,000 or more on a bunch of coins and just tell an advisor "just buy it so I can put it in my safe" or stuff like that ? I am talking price-insensitive buyers for most of the stuff we see in collectibles (not the super-high end stuff which involves 6 or 7 figures).

 

When I worked in some Private Banks, we'd see people cashing in after a stock IPO and they were flush with million or even tens of millions of dollars. First thing they wanted was a nice house (or houses), then cars and stuff like that, and down the line art and/or coins (which also serve as investments). I remember back in 1999 we had one of the early Amazon.com investors and he suddenly had like $100 MM in his account. The Relationship Manager who I worked with was running up and down 5th Avenue in NYC to get up-to-speed on coins because the guy wanted a few hundred thousand in gold coins and the RM had no freakin' idea what to buy, bullion or numismatic, new or old or very old, etc. I wish I had kept in touch with what he eventually bought but I am sure he spent 6-figures or more without giving it a second thought. Someone like that wouldn't care if the price of the 1916-S was overpriced by $1,500 or not -- he'd just want to buy the damn thing, tell his client he got it, and get back in the office or back home.

 

I love that story. I am in the legal profession and I have seen developer clients spend their 1031 exchange money with similar abandon. They'd be flush with cash, with a limited amount of time to identify and place that money, lest the tax man come calling.

[GoldFinger1969]

I love that story. I am in the legal profession and I have seen developer clients spend their 1031 exchange money with similar abandon. They'd be flush with cash, with a limited amount of time to identify and place that money, lest the tax man come calling.

 

Yup, same thing. It's like it's 'found money' now that they are liquid and they want to spend the $$$.

 

That's what worries me down the line: price-insensitive buyers for the higher grades, say MS63 and up, especially MS65 and up.

 

It's like choice real estate: they aren't making more of these. Every year there are more of those slabbed silver or bullion coins from the Mints (Pandas, Eagles, Maple Leafs, Buffalos, etc.) if you want them, but they are not making more St. Guadens or any of the older stuff that is in demand.

 

Fixed Supply + Increasing Demand = Rising Prices !!!

[GoldFinger1969]

Just had lunch with the president of my state's coin club who is flying out for the FUN show tomorrow. He knows I am interested in this series, so I expect he will be texting me with his findings from the show.

 

Awesome, would be interested in hearing any Saint sales/buy, trends, etc.

 

I definitely want to goto FUN next year and in the future.

[GoldFinger1969]

Just had lunch with the president of my state's coin club who is flying out for the FUN show tomorrow. He knows I am interested in this series, so I expect he will be texting me with his findings from the show.

CSDot, any feedback from your pal regarding his Saint impressions from FUN ?

[CSdot]

Oddly he didn't mention any saints, but it may have been because we were short on time. He did show me some quarters and halves he picked up that were nice.

 

Have you acquired any more saints?

[GoldFinger1969]

A future issue of the Journal of Numismatic Research will have detailed research articles about the survival of US gold coins. In some instances, the number of pieces extant as of 1934 has been determined. Most, however, are much less precise. Included is a summary of the US gold held by domestic and foreign banks which helps us understand why double eagles are so common.

 

Thanks for the heads-up, RWB, I will definitely have to be on the alert for that article.

[GoldFinger1969]

Oddly he didn't mention any saints, but it may have been because we were short on time. He did show me some quarters and halves he picked up that were nice. Have you acquired any more saints?

 

Nope, but I have been getting e-mails on some 1911-S's and 1914-D's from some dealers/friends/collectors since the Westchester show and since my collector friends spread the word that I was looking.

 

The MS 62's aren't bad, but I'm being cautious and trying to figure out if I can scrounge up enough to get an MS 65.

 

 

[CSdot]

Nope, but I have been getting e-mails on some 1911-S's and 1914-D's from some dealers/friends/collectors since the Westchester show and since my collector friends spread the word that I was looking.

 

The MS 62's aren't bad, but I'm being cautious and trying to figure out if I can scrounge up enough to get an MS 65.

 

 

I know the jump in price between a 62 and a 65 can seem like a lot, but as a collector (rather than just a stacker of bullion) I would recommend digging a little deeper and paying for the 65. I have yet to regret that I paid an extra $500 to get a better coin, but there are certainly coins in my set that I look at and wish I had spent the extra $500 or so to get a better example.

 

That's not to say you need to chase the number on the plastic. I say that because I have some 64s that I thought looked better than the more expensive 65s in the dealer's case. The 65s will sell better, but I was looking at the coin, not the number.