Identify a THREAT to the hobby and suggest SOLUTIONS.

[KeyMan64]

A popular phrase with me when I have managed other people has been "Don't come to me with problems, come to me with solutions."

Along those lines, some people are very quick to complain about issues they see in the hobby but are much less likely to actually think and suggest a possible solution.

 

This can be a thread to identify some threats that the hobby may face and suggest solutions. I will start with one example and also list other possible threats to the hobby if anyone wants to take them on or just run with whatever you see fit.

 

PROBLEM: Population reports are a mess.

 

EXAMPLE:

A Semi-Key Date at a TPG

Just 3 years ago the POPS were 40 with 0 higher.

Now POPS are 50 with 1 higher.

It is hard for me to believe that 10 brand new 67FBs and 1 brand new 67+FB example was found in the last 3 years.

It is my belief that with the advent of Plus Grading that a ton of coins were just cracked out and sent back in which has resulted in a population explosion of greater than 25% in 3 years. Sure, a couple of 66FB examples may have upgraded as well. Sure, maybe a couple got crossed from other TPGs.

 

POSSIBLE SOLUTION(S):

It all starts with education. The education of collectors and dealers by various publications (magazines, authors, bloggers, TPGs) about the impact this has on the hobby is the beginning.

To restore *some* trust in the POP REPORTS, provide future stability to price guides, protect TPG business models and the hobby for a long time to come a strong incentive type of campaign needs to be launched to encourage collectors and dealers to return TPG Labels to the proper TPG in order to correct the pops.

 

This incentive needs to be a little more than a few cents per paper. There are some people that have cracked out hundreds, if not thousands of coins. How about a FREE grading for every 10 labels turned in or maybe for every 20... Something that makes sense to encourage batches and batches of labels to be returned. It is obvious that people are using the TPG services and it is expensive to just send in ONE coin for grading so it will really encourage more submissions. I believe this would end up being a NET GAIN for the TPGs. Another option would be CASH for labels turned in...$1, $2 or $3 per label? Or CASH VOUCHER/CREDIT for labels turned in that can be used towards future grading or TPG Memberships (Silver, Gold....etc). There needs to be an education section on the TPG websites about the importance of this program. Can labels be turned in at shows? I have never seen that as a publicized element of what was available at shows...they always advertise Express Show Grading, Taking in Submissions etc...advertising that they accept LABEL RETURNS at shows might be another good thing.

 

When I go to http://www.ngccoin.com/, I do not see anything about how to return labels at quick glance. Maybe it is somewhere and that is fine but my point is that it should be much more prominent. Another thing that can be done is to make a small modification to the submission forms which will lead to a huge hobby improvement. If doing a crossover, maybe a check box for the service of RETURNING labels to the other TPGs for you! Shocking, I know! This would mean that at least some TPGs were cooperating with each other to help the hobby as a whole and keep Pop Reports as clean as possible. Maybe it is only available among 3, 4 or 5 TPGs initially? Maybe TPGs did a monthly mailing to the other TPGs of all the labels that came in? Maybe they use a bit of technology to scan each label and send an ELECTRONIC batch over to the other TPG on a nightly or weekly basis? Yes, this would be a COOPERATIVE EFFORT but it would be huge for the hobby!!! It would help protect the hobby for years to come. The process of turning in labels needs to be identified and advertised with all other services. Many people are lazy and it needs to be made SUPER SIMPLE for people or it just won't happen and that SUPER SIMPLE solution needs to be pumped up with an incentive so that it actually happens!

 

Maybe a special reward for those that turn in labels for KEY/SEMI KEYS or LOWER POP COINS or COINS OVER A CERTAIN VALUE in an initial ramp up period of 6 months?

 

Another solution, but certainly more expensive for right now, is to take a scan image of each coin that arrives at the TPG, archive that image and compare it to ALL previously submitted coins of that date and mint mark. I believe the hobby will get to this eventually but it can/should be implemented NOW for at least the KEY/SEMI KEY DATES, LOW POP COINS, VARIETIES AND COINS OVER A CERTAIN VALUE. This step can actually have an impact on not only the Pop Reports but also coin doctoring problem!

 

IF SOMETHING IS NOT DONE:

I could see pop reports becoming such a pile of trash that they are no longer published and they are just kept internally at the TPGs for reference when trying to do their price guides which will rely more and more on auction results rather than a combination of factors. Price guides should be based on many different factors, not just one or two auction results. If a concerted effort to fix or stabilize population reports is not done then it will eventually lead to less accurate price guides. Less accurate price guides can lead to a hobby down fall in some areas.

 

IMPACT:

Some people will claim different elements I have mentioned have an out of pocket cost to the TPGs and that is sometimes yes and sometimes no! The expense of some of these efforts can be passed onto the consumer in different ways. I doubt any one of these things will be a fix to the problem right away but over time, if these things can be combined, we will be able to see a vast improvement for the hobby. Rarity will be better identified, some stability restored, price guides more accurate etc. If something is DONE at one TPG but not others then that one TPG will become a stronger market leader for sure. The TPG that takes the lead on this project will further establish themselves as a leader. The hobby will be further protected for years to come and in turn protect the business model of the TPGs!

 

 

Please feel free to bash my ideas, suggest better solutions to the problem I have identified or list a problem that is eating at you along with possible solutions for it. Remember that some problems have solutions in common! Discuss please..............

 

I would really like it if NGC employees would chime in for this discussion. Maybe they are already working on all of this and plan to launch a new campaign at Winter FUN? I can hope.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

What occurs if there is no pop report?

 

It is a marketing tool, the benefits of which are for the TPG that makes the report available.

 

It is of benefit to the seller of a coin, who can use it as a marketing tool.

 

It is not of any real value to a collector that understands that the pop report is a marketing tool and is not accurate.

 

The original intentions were/are honorable; unfortunately, the intentions have changed as has the purpose and reliability of the report.

 

There was a time that turning in the labels netted .50C or so, and submitters were encouraged for the good of the hobby to send them in, or in the alternative, don't crack out the coin before sending in. Of course, trust levels and reward expectations being what they are in human nature, it did not work out so well.

 

The pop report is now more of a business model than it is a reliable tool for the collector. Unfortunately, collectors that are not aware of the shortcomings sometimes rely on the report and the economic consequence can be salty.

 

The TPG can't police the crack out resubmit process, and have no incentive to do so; quite the opposite as a matter of fact.

 

But what do I know.....

[KeyMan64]

"The TPG can't police the crack out resubmit process, and have no incentive to do so; quite the opposite as a matter of fact."

 

This is NOT being called for at all.

This DOES NOT discourage crack outs at all! People can crack stuff out all they want, we just want to encourage the sending in of the LABELS so POP REPORTS and PRICE GUIDES can remain somewhat stable! Stability in the market place will allow for TPGs like NGC to have their business model continue and thrive for years to come.

 

I have talked to people that have said they have a PILE of labels in a box/drawer from crackouts and they just have not sent them in. There has been little incentive for them to do so and this compounds the problem across the entire hobby. I bet there are a lot of people like this! If all of these people sent in their labels the current POP REPORTS could be helped significantly. If the current pop is 50 and 5 labels are sent in to correct that then we have a very significant 10% adjustment!

 

This would PROTECT and GROW the TPG BUSINESS MODEL!!!! They could be an even BIGGER market leader!

If the Pops go to and then the price guides go to then eventually the hobby will go to and then guess what...NGC and other TPGs fail or at least head towards a decline.

This would protect the hobby and therefore it would protect their business model for a long time to come.

 

I do not think this would discourage crack outs or resubmissions at all. I just want labels turned in and coins imaged to protect the POPS.....and everything else!

 

 

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

I think you may have concentrated on the last paragraph, to the exclusivity of the rest of my thoughts.

 

I did not and do not interpret your idea as advocating a police action. I use the term in the social sense of compliance for the good of all. This will not happen by offerings of gifts alone. It will not be enough to offer a monetary reward or a trade 1 for 10 or 20 reward -it has been tried/talked about/discussed to no avail over the years- because unless there is 100% compliance or something near that percent, the results will still remain skewed.

 

It would also be meaningless without compliance and cooperation by all TPGs, and 4TPGs, and Dealers and Buyers and Sellers and Collectors, all of whom have varying agendas and goals at any one time.

 

It is better for the good of all to completely ignore any published Pop Report, until the Reports are policed by those that produce same, and will stand behind the accuracy of same.

 

I can think of a market business model that calls for a complete revamping of the Holder types/grading method that would cause a reaction that would achieve what you are advocating, but it would only be done and implemented by the producer of the new and improved Pop Report and benefit only the producer of the Report. That would be the same situation, in the end, that exists now.

 

I do agree, however, that there are other issues that can be discussed that will present more realistic opportunities to improve upon.

 

Respectfully,

John

[KeyMan64]

Okie Dokie John!

Then let's discuss solutions. I think a bandaid would be to maybe image every coin (maybe at a certain price level to begin with...like $300?) and then compare images for every coin submitted etc. That would get us close or would be a solid step in the right direction. Maybe a new pop report can be started for everything that goes through the new system?

 

Soooo, now that we are over poking all too obvious holes in my thoughts... What solutions can others come up with? Or maybe someone recognizes another problem and has a solution for it?

[RWB]

Just burn all the old totals, and start fresh.

[KeyMan64]

Just burn all the old totals, and start fresh.

We can't start fresh until we have a SOLUTION in place to prevent the same problems from coming to light. Do you have any good ideas to share?

[joeyuk]

a quote from ATS about secure plus:

 

"PCGS Secure achieves these goals with:

 

Unique registration of each coin

Improved detection of counterfeits and altered coins

All Secure coins come with the PCGS unlimited guarantee

More likely recovery if a Secure coin is ever lost or stolen

High-quality images available at no charge at Cert Verification"

 

"With PCGS Secure service, each coin is laser scanned, imaged, and registered into the Secure data base. The system digitally captures the unique fingerprints of both sides of each coin."

 

 

Apparently they can compare individual coins with their data base

of other secure plus coins.

[KeyMan64]

a quote from ATS about secure plus:

 

"PCGS Secure achieves these goals with:

 

Unique registration of each coin

Improved detection of counterfeits and altered coins

All Secure coins come with the PCGS unlimited guarantee

More likely recovery if a Secure coin is ever lost or stolen

High-quality images available at no charge at Cert Verification"

 

"With PCGS Secure service, each coin is laser scanned, imaged, and registered into the Secure data base. The system digitally captures the unique fingerprints of both sides of each coin."

 

 

Apparently they can compare individual coins with their data base

of other secure plus coins.

All of that is true but it is not being done with all coins, only for those that pay for the extra service and on top of that the SECURE PLUS POPS have not been made available to anyone that I am aware of....so the problem continues for the non SECURE PLUS coins which is the majority!

[Conder101]

What you have to do is combine the "burn the tables and start over" with expannding the Secure Plus type scanning to all submissions like they were planning to do back with the Expert System back in 1991. Anything short of this and the pop report remains meaningless. There is no way an increased bounty on slab labels is going to come anywhere close to fixing the pop report after 25+ years of messing it up.

 

Implementing such a new pop report system would need to coincide withthe introduction of a new holder type so people could look at the holder and know instantly that that coin was counted in the new report. Anything in an older holder is not included in the new report. This of course would get a lot of people who have been striving for top end pop report pieces upset because suddenly all their top pop coins no longer are even in the report.

 

The solution to this would be a "scan and reholder" service. For a lower fee you can send your coins back in for scanning and reholdering in the new holder design and they would then be eligible to be listed in the pop report at the current grade. This lets the existing coins back into the report, and at the same time eliminates all the cracked out regrades that were bloating the old report. It also provides another revenue stream to the TPG so they will like it as well.

 

This only leaves the problem of crossover to other services that take place after the new system is put in place.

 

The label bounty may help some here, but only if you can get the other TPG's to send them back. Even so the error magnitude in the report would still be much lower than it currently is. And it has the benefit that any coins that recross or get cracked back out of the other services holders and resubmitted,would be recognized and not create duplicate entries in the report.

 

So there is the solution. A start over with digital fingerprinting of every coin, and a route to allow currently slabbed coins to get scanned and entered into the new corrected report.

[Raisethis2]

 

 

Taking this thread into a new direction............

 

A threat I perceive is the lack of young people in the hobby. For any activity to continue it must generate interest from new people.

 

Solution......

 

Given that young people typically don't have the money to buy coins of any value one way I do my part is to purchase a coin (usually about $20) whenever a kid shows up at an auction I'm involved in. I'll generally just have the coin delivered to him/her asap.

 

Door prizes, raffle prizes etc are great ways to get their interest.

 

 

[KeyMan64]

Thanks for a very constructive reply Conder101.

[World Colonial]

 

Taking this thread into a new direction............

 

A threat I perceive is the lack of young people in the hobby. For any activity to continue it must generate interest from new people.

 

Solution......

 

Given that young people typically don't have the money to buy coins of any value one way I do my part is to purchase a coin (usually about $20) whenever a kid shows up at an auction I'm involved in. I'll generally just have the coin delivered to him/her asap.

 

Door prizes, raffle prizes etc are great ways to get their interest.

 

 

I agree that what you describe is a problem but my solution is completely different than yours and it isn't one that anyone has control over either.

 

The best solution to this problem you describe is for the coins to just cost a lot less, especially those from the United States. But those who already own them are certainly not going to be in favor of that.

 

The fact of the matter is that if you are a potential YN in the US today and want to collect US coinage, there isn't much of anything of numismatic substance to buy anymore that is really affordable. I know that this is subjective and suspect that most here probably do not agree with it, but I think the existing prices better support this opinion than the opposite.

 

I am an example of this myself. When I moved to the United States at the age of 10 in 1975, I did collect US coins. I wasn't able to buy many but did end up with a very small collection pretty decent coins and by decent, I am not talking high grades or key dates. I am talking about VF or XF bust halves and the like. I gave it up when I became a teenager like many others do because of other interests (and yes, money) but when I started working at the age of 16, I could have at least occasionally bought them if I chose to do so.

 

That is not a realistic option for most or at least a substantial percentage of the population, especially since 2008. The proportion of the population under age 24 has a much higher unemployment rate than my generation did at the time. And if they have a job, the money does not go nearly as far as it did either because prices for so many coins have increased a lot more than the pay for the jobs these people have. So how exactly are they supposed to do it?

 

When I resumed collecting in 1998 even at the age of 33, I evaluated what my money could buy and decided to forget US coinage altogether. With a modest budget that was still far more than what the typical YN could afford, I decided it was a generally poor value proposition.

[Eric Hazen]

I started collecting about three years ago and I'm 29. I'd agree, several type coins are beyond me but I've gone different directions and still enjoy the hobby.

 

I do think over time either inflation will keep the prices going up or as old collectors sell for the extra retirement money dealers will have to lower their prices to ensure they're keeping their inventory liquid.

[joeyuk]

My 15 year old son enjoys coins. I bought a oversized spiral redbook recently so we can look at the pages together at a table. When he comes to a show with me I give him $50-$100 and only ask he walks the entire show before deciding what to buy. We have been doing this off and on for 5 years.

 

Also another young collector in the family occasionally gets a nice numismatic gift.

They love it. I think seasoned collectors need to share the hobby more.

[World Colonial]

I started collecting about three years ago and I'm 29. I'd agree, several type coins are beyond me but I've gone different directions and still enjoy the hobby.

 

I do think over time either inflation will keep the prices going up or as old collectors sell for the extra retirement money dealers will have to lower their prices to ensure they're keeping their inventory liquid.

 

I believe that any individual collector can enjoy the hobby regardless of their budget. But overall as (especially) US coins have become more expensive, there are fewer and fewer affordable options which can only reduce interest. And the coins I am referring to are not those which I think most on this board consider expensive but moderate or even low priced ones.

 

To give you an example, my step grandmother gave me an 1803 large cent in 1975 which the 1976 Red Book valued at $10. The Heritage archives list recent sales of a graded coin VG at $105 to $236, depending upon the variety. Nice coin and worth collecting? Definitely. Affordable or cheap? Not in my opinion for this coin and regardless of whether anyone thinks it is, it is far less so than in 1975. At $10, I could have bought this coin with my very modest allowance over time. The number of YN who can afford this coin today is a fraction of what it was then.

 

From what I can see, an increasing number of even older collectors are only going to find base metal coinage like IHC and Lincoln's, Buffalo Nickel or low grade type coins affordable. Silver has lost a lot of value in the last two years which helps, but when it was recently $50, even the cheapest circulating coins were hardly cheap, especially considering what is being bought.

 

Given what I am describing, to expect a substantial number of potential collectors to find what they can afford interesting is not realistic at all. There is a lot more competition for your money today than in the past.

 

 

[Kurtdog]

What occurs if there is no pop report?

 

It is a marketing tool, the benefits of which are for the TPG that makes the report available.

 

It is of benefit to the seller of a coin, who can use it as a marketing tool.

 

It is not of any real value to a collector that understands that the pop report is a marketing tool and is not accurate.

 

The original intentions were/are honorable; unfortunately, the intentions have changed as has the purpose and reliability of the report.

 

There was a time that turning in the labels netted .50C or so, and submitters were encouraged for the good of the hobby to send them in, or in the alternative, don't crack out the coin before sending in. Of course, trust levels and reward expectations being what they are in human nature, it did not work out so well.

 

The pop report is now more of a business model than it is a reliable tool for the collector. Unfortunately, collectors that are not aware of the shortcomings sometimes rely on the report and the economic consequence can be salty.

 

The TPG can't police the crack out resubmit process, and have no incentive to do so; quite the opposite as a matter of fact.

 

But what do I know.....

You know enough to know this is marketing grading.

[World Colonial]

You know enough to know this is marketing grading.

 

I agree with both you and John Curtis and if the price structure ever returns to more closely resemble what it did before TPG (PCGS and NGC) became preferred, then few or even none are going to care either. The problem will take care of itself.

 

These pop reports are far more relevant for "conditional rarities" and maybe up to a few grades below it. And they are only relevant because so many collectors focus on what in actuality have historically been considered trivial differences in quality.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

Curlis....no relation to the aircraft industry

[World Colonial]

Curlis....no relation to the aircraft industry

 

Sorry about that.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

Curlis....no relation to the aircraft industry

 

Sorry about that.

 

It is ok. It is nice to have any attention

Spell it any method you prefer.

I neeed friends, so I can't be sensitive....