Modern Proof Coin Collecting - The Risks of a Big Price Drop posted by 00001AAA Coins

[CSJournals-migration]

The Sad Fate of the 2000 S Proof Sacagawea Dollar

 

I see there is lots of fuss about the lowered values for Sacagawea dollar coins in PF 70 Ultra Cameo condition. This shouldn't be a shock to anyone who collects modern coins. There is simply a limited group of collectors for most modern coins and far too many coins in perfect PF 70 UC condition. The real losers are those with PF 69 UC modern proof coins that will be lucky to get back the price of certification in the future. Yes I know there are exceptions to this rule, but not that many. With modern coins you need to think about the long term value (or lack thereof). Buy the coins you like, buy them cheap and don't worry about the value is a good motto for modern coin collecting.

 

Let's examine the sad fate of the 2000 S Proof 70 Ultra Cameo Sacagawea Dollar. In July 2005 this coin had a book value of over $600 and spiked at over $1000 in 2006. This value simply couldn't hold as more and more PF 70 UC coins came on the market. The U.S. Mint produced over 4,000,000 of these Proof coins with many in perfect condition. As of 2013 what was a $1000 coin has dropped to below $100 in value and will likely end up worth even less than that as the demand fades and the number of perfect coins slowly increases to well beyond 2,000 PF 70 UC coins.

 

This is an object lesson also for the American Silver Eagle Proof Bullion Coins that are hot right now. If there are several thousand or more of any coin in PF 70 UC condition one can also expect a high priced coin to drop over time as demand fades. Supply and Demand rule the coin world as well. This is something something one should consider when buying or selling modern proof coins.

 

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[Ultra Cameo Collection]

Some people blindly follow the FMV for their coins, most do not know that it is a blend of PCGS and NGC coin sales that they use to set that price.

 

I have had a hard time getting some coins for under FMV because of the BIN prices on eBay and elsewhere attempting to set a higher price. I have also found some sellers listing their prices right at FMV on certain early PF70UC coins which in some sets are FAR below their actual value.

 

Some coins are pop 1s in NGC but have over 10 and even 30 or more from PCGS and their FMV is WAY low for a pop 1. I own the only 1977 5c PF70UC yet the FMV is very low at $750. I would have loved to pay $750 for that coin. In the instance of my 1977 nickel the FMV is wrong because of the PCGS sales. I can bet if you sent in most of those 1977 5c PR70DCAM nickels to NGC that they would come back as PF69UC's.

 

I don't believe that 2000 SAC was ever worth more than a couple hundred dollars.

 

[Six Mile Rick]

I'd Say any price drop in the future as far as FMV will be minimal. I checked the values of my 1999 PF70UC set when I got it from my old pal Todd Peters. The set has held up pretty well in the past two years but if you go back to 2006 it was worth 5X or more. All the proof coins took a hit at the same time ---- (E-BAY and easier access cut the throat for real time dealers). I would still like to get that PF70UC silver Delaware --- to cap that set at a real #1 set. That is probably why Todd sent me the 1999 to 2008 sets to sell at 60% FMV and invested the sales in some great FT dimes. Most collectors here follow the FMV pricing and are so surprised when a coin sell for 30% off or 3X the value. It is the coin and the rarity and FMV should be kicked to the side. You should watch the populations and pick great strikes if you want a great set!!

 

JMO---Rick

[Six Mile Rick]

I basically started collecting my proof sets this year after Todd passed, I'm glad I collected Morgans in 2006 when others were paying those high premiums on PF70UC's.

There's no crystal ball to tell us what a coin value will do in the future. I checked the purchase price of my 2000 S Sac and I paid $17.50 for it. What a difference compared to that scale above!!!

[jgenn]

This holds true for all modern coins, PF70UC or MS70, don't you think? I've started a modest collection of Chinese 1oz Silver Pandas and will only buy MS70s, at least through 2002. The nice thing about the panda coins is that, prior to 2011, the mintages were less than 1 million and demand is high from Chinese collectors. ~jack

[Jeffrey Cardona]

I dont see that big of a drop...if any drop at all...in Proof SAEs values. I believe there are only 2 years that that mintage for these coins exceeded 1 million units. Even with the high quality of these coins producing quite a few 70s, the demand will always be high of the proof SAEs. You must remember the that the silver eagle program is the single most popular series the Mint has ever produced and silver eagles are the most popluar modern coin collected.

 

Jeff