GOLD under $1400---Buy time?

[BruceS]

precious metal prices keep falling as of late. what do you think? are we reaching bottom? still room to slide? im thinking maybe its time to buy, maybe roll over some 401K funds to a gold IRA account. a little scary, but the up side could be huge.

[JKK]

Not in my view. Far as I'm concerned, Ag is reasonable at about $15 or less and Au is reasonable at about $600-700. I consider the difference between those numbers and the current pricing purely a reflection of people's fear. I notice that Ag got into the mid-forties, has now cratered to half that. I hope they both drop like rocks thrown off cliffs, so I can buy mine back at a third to a quarter of what people paid me for them. Burn, baby, burn.

[World Colonial]

One thing is for sure, the number of threads and posts about the subject (gold and silver) in typical fashion is much less now that the prices for both are lower.

[Houston Investor]

Tough to predict. It goes down when I buy, up when I sell.

[mtnstyne]

Tough to predict. It goes down when I buy, up when I sell.

 

Hmmm...maybe you should post when you ar e buying and selling so the rest of us can do the opposite

[RWB]

"...im thinking maybe its time to buy, maybe roll over some 401K funds to a gold IRA account. a little scary, but the up side could be huge."

 

The down side is similarly huge.

[newprepper]

Don't turn anything over to paper gold, only physical, the sales of gold outnumber the actual amount of physical gold, do a search on gold scam. people have been paying for gold and storage fees and when they ask to actually see it.......do the search

[JKK]

I agree there. Either take possession of the metal, or don't buy. If the whole bugout scenario comes into play, the nice young receptionist at Edward Jones or wherever isn't going to be there to get it for you--if it's even vaulted on the premises.

[Deerefan8420]

I was talking to a good friend yesterday and she was telling me that her brother in law is pretty much pulling out of everything paper and putting into physical metals. I don't remember exactly who he works for but I know that he is a program engineer and he works on Wall Street. She was telling me that there is some scuttlebutt within his company that "it" is going to hit the fan this summer and the dollar is going to fall dramatically.

 

But I have not heard or read about any of this so I don't know if it's just speculation or what.... There's no paranoia here, as of now....

[JKK]

I did a blog post recently about how most of the metal bugs don't even believe their own philosophy (that everything is going to *spoon* and that everyone should load up on metal). If they actually believe it, I don't have a reason to be critical of it. But unless they actually have the metal, and bought it in some form that would be useful in their scenario, they don't really believe it. They just like to say it, and metal investing is like a comfort food for them.

[FishyOne]

I was talking to a good friend yesterday and she was telling me that her brother in law is pretty much pulling out of everything paper and putting into physical metals. I don't remember exactly who he works for but I know that he is a program engineer and he works on Wall Street. She was telling me that there is some scuttlebutt within his company that "it" is going to hit the fan this summer and the dollar is going to fall dramatically.

 

But I have not heard or read about any of this so I don't know if it's just speculation or what.... There's no paranoia here, as of now....

 

Might not be this year but when The Fed fueled rally ends it won't be pretty. Endless QE and 5 straight years of 0% interest have created another bubble in equities. The equity rally will last as long as The Fed lets it run. That could be a year, a month, a day, or a several years. Timing is everything.

 

I will say that 2013 is starting to look a lot like 2008. The too big to fail banks know they can get away with it again, and again, and again. The relative strength of the USD will allow trillions more to be dumped before the piper must be paid. That could take several years.

[BruceS]

Don't turn anything over to paper gold, only physical, the sales of gold outnumber the actual amount of physical gold, do a search on gold scam. people have been paying for gold and storage fees and when they ask to actually see it.......do the search

 

As far as starting a precious metal IRA, It does make me concerned not to hold the physical metal. but the friendly IRS, makes you store it in a "Certified" bullion depository. until the time when you can take distributions. So I dont think ill be starting one anytime soon, instead ill borrow from my 401K and turn that into gold eagles, and or bars. I do think it is a good time to buy, but who knows? like everything else its a risk. regards BruceS

[wdrob]

Things are so screwed up I don't know which way to turn. I buy silver and gold and don't know whether to ride the storm out and reap the benefits later or just come to the realization that the governments of the world are going to continue to manipulate the market through false economic indicators and further devaluation of the dollar through continuously printing fiat.

 

One would think that it is the perfect time to be buying but just how low is it going. That is the million dollar question. I have priced some of my silver so high that no one in their right mind would touch it but I continue to ask myself just where the bottom is going to be. Crazy times we are in.

 

If anyone knows where the bottom is going to be then let me know. The only thing I am sure about is that the bottom will not be $0.00 ..... Other than that I have no clue!

 

 

[World Colonial]

I agree with you that a rerun of 2008 is in store, except that next time, it will be even worse. Moreover, just like the 1990's and in 2007 when people were conditioned to buy the dips, the 2002 and 2008 bear markets have conditioned many of them to sell.

 

A huge number of people in the United States and elsewhere are flat out broke. Many of them know it and many others do not but will find out. There are also many people (and institutions such as pension funds) who are "reaching for yield" because practically everyone is starving for cash income to either pay their debts, their bills or generate a return which exceeds the pitiful amounts available from "risk free" assets.

 

As for the USD, contrary to most everyone, I still expect it to soar versus major foreign currencies and confound most everyone. This week, the DXY "broke out" to a new multi-year high (from 2010) at over 84. I expect it to ultimately exceed the 89.62 level of 2008 and maybe by a significant margin.

[World Colonial]

I expect many "metal bugs" to lose a lot of money in the metals. Yes, I think they will be right "eventually" but that could be much longer than anyone thinks. And in the interim, I expect economic depression which will force most of them who are actually "weak hands" to become net sellers into a declining market. They will be forced to sell either because they must (to pay their bills and debts) or maybe because they will be afraid of prices falling lower.

 

This time though, I am looking to buy more of both (silver and gold) as insurance but I am not going "all in" by a long shot. I still think both will sell less later but it was a mistake not to buy more earlier. I believe that many "metal bugs" have made the same mistake I did but in the opposite direction.

[wdrob]

Well my house and land are paid for. I have no mortgage. I have the usual debt's, light bill, Directv, internet, insurance, etc... and I bought a 2012 Ford Focus new last year and put $10k down on it so my payment is really low and payoff is always within reach.

 

I have been doing incremental buying of silver and gold and I am starting to think, based on information and opinions like that you expressed earlier, that maybe I should hold off on any further purchases unless they are numismatic in nature. I know this much; any CD's or savings accounts are out of the question. There is no money to be made there. I think maybe I need to get back active in penny stocks through Zecco (Now Trade King) and play with some disposable income in there once again until I see the price so low on gold and silver that I have no choice but to get back into the game.

 

I might be better off just leaving all this up to the professionals ..... I do it more as a hobby than to make money. I have always been middle class and don't ever see that changing. The desire is not there for me to soar to new heights of financial freedom that most millionaires posses. I do enjoy the thrill of buying something at a very low price and turning it into a profit that is 20 to 30 times, or more, than the original investment. Now that always feels really good but seldom happens.

 

 

[Houston Investor]

The Tangible Asset World is full of doom and gloom stories and how its all going to explode into the stratosphere. I have usually found when I buy based on this market mania it goes down and when I sell it goes up.

 

What I do:

1. I try to maintain a certain bullion content level and may add to it now and then. If your a bullion investor with fresh cash from your job, drops in bullion are good news meaning you can buy it cheaper. If you hurting for money (fixed in come, job loss) then this is bad news.

2. I concentrate on coins and currency I like and know which I feel have a chance to sell and move quickly.

3 Sometimes I do better with currency than coins but it moves slower.

4. I like modern world silver issues I can buy close to melt. Slabbed MS 69 silver mods if bought within 10-15 dollars of melt seem cheap.

5. I love early 20th century US gold issues and my SDB is full of them. I buy affordable issues relatively close to melt - MS 64-65 Saints, MS $20 MS 63 Libs, and AU 50-58 on most of the rest. I look for the cheapest, high grade issue in a series that does not have a huge uptick - MS 64 -65 Saint, MS63 10 Indian, AU 58 5 Indian, AU 2.50 Indian. I also like MWG if its fairly close to melt Beyond gold I do not believe in expensive numismatic coins over $500 (unless I win the lottery). Its better just to put together a set of the mints of a series than get buried trying to complete an expensive series. I do admit to being a hoarder of nice 1934-S Peace dollars in AU and below.

6. For shows I like a high cash (for buying good deals) / inventory ratio.

 

I would advise someone to settle on a realistic affordable bullion level of gold, silver, and platinum. These don't have to be all bullion coins; semi numismatics will do. When I started taking tables at shows in 1990. my goal was 100 oz of gold and 1000 oz of silver. I easily achieved that early on but have taken some profits along the way. Silver is trading near the $35 oz of gold in 1967. Focus on what you can afford and not take a bath on if you have to liquidate it at blowout levels. The job market in this country is at a very depressed level relative to a position making it in the long term. I work in financial management and have found nowadays when there is an upper mgt change the fallout is almost always unfavorable. 20 years ago on a good day a job might go ten years or more. Now your doing good if you can get 2 - 3 years out of it before someone ruins it due to greed or hunger for power. One should invest carefully.

[World Colonial]

I am not a "doom and gloomer" in the sense that I expect civilization to "end as we know it" or anything like that. The premise of my economic outlook since I started posting here (and long before it) has been and remains that the standard of living of the majority of Americans is going to decrease for the foreseeable future and for many, it will be substantial. I said this back in 2008 before the "Great Recession" and I am sticking to it. I expect the same outcome throughout most of the world though it will vary depending upon where you live and it will not be a linear event. Most people are going to be poorer or a lot poorer, no matter what any government does or does not do.

 

From what you described, I agree with your approach except that I would not be speculating in penny stocks or anything like it. I have mostly been in "cash" for the last 4+ years and though I am not happy about the opportunity cost, I can live with it because I am still better off now than I was then. I still expect to be able to buy practically every asset class for less (much less) than either now or even at the 2009 bottom. This is not a real "recovery" at all but a fake one based upon artificial and unsustainable cheap money and expansion of government debt. No matter how long it takes or how smart the policymakers who are taking this economic course think they are, there isn't a free lunch in life and the consequences of this recklessness are going to be paid later, BIG TIME.

 

As for buying gold, silver or both, I still think they are going to go lower. I was correct going into the later 2008 bottom and wrong until the peaks in 2011. I think everyone should own some of either or both but not as a form of speculation but because they are real money. Treat it as a form of insurance that hopefully you will not need. But make sure that you only buy and own what you can afford to keep under adverse economic circumstances because I expect a lot of "metal bugs" to be forced sellers if my outlook turns out to be correct.

 

I would say that they have now met my minimum downside expectations by returning to the origin of their previous parabolic moves and I will be looking to add to what I own (without going "all in") on any additional price weakness.

 

 

 

 

[James_OldeTowne]

To answer the OP directly, I personally think gold is a "buy" right now. It might yet decline even more, but it sure seems to be getting rather affordable.

 

On the other hand, I am almost always hopelessly wrong about such things !