GOLD

[Mark T]

http://www.monex.com/prods/gold_chart.html

 

HMMMMM

 

 

$1250 anyone

[BillJones]

Big drops have happened before, but the last time, circa 1980, the reasons for the first big push in gold prices had gone away. This time I don't see that happening. The Fed is still adding to the money supply in large amounts, and being done to buy up the national debt which has yet to slow its growth.

[Mark T]

Big drops have happened before, but the last time, circa 1980, the reasons for the first big push in gold prices had gone away. This time I don't see that happening. The Fed is still adding to the money supply in large amounts, and being done to buy up the national debt which has yet to slow its growth.

 

The Fed cannot keep this B S Monetary policy going for much longer. All bubbles hurt bad on the downside. No difference for this one.

[rmpsrpms]

I'm hoping for $1250 or less this weekend, and a few willing sellers at the Santa Clara show. 3 days of drops and 2 days of stabilization.

[RWB]

Small market + lots of speculation = volatility

[Mark T]

Small market + lots of speculation = volatility

 

The Gold market is not small.

[johnny9434]

if we see 1250, we might see 1,000. it will pick up by the end of the year again.

[World Colonial]

Big drops have happened before, but the last time, circa 1980, the reasons for the first big push in gold prices had gone away. This time I don't see that happening. The Fed is still adding to the money supply in large amounts, and being done to buy up the national debt which has yet to slow its growth.

 

The Fed cannot keep this B S Monetary policy going for much longer. All bubbles hurt bad on the downside. No difference for this one.

 

I agree with the sentiments in all your comments here. For the technician, I believe the nearest "support level" is around $1300. From the standpoint of the "fundamentals", they matter - eventually - but prices can go a lot lower or a lot higher in between. The key is not to get whipsawed, forced out of your position or end up broke in between.

 

I have been wrong on both gold and silver since the beginning of 2009 and the metal bulls have been wrong since mid 2011 (silver) and late 2011 (gold). I agree with the metals bulls longer term and think everyone should own some of one or both. But I still think that silver in particular is going to end up lower first before it goes much higher later. I suspect that many people bought around current and even higher prices on the way up and now they are "underwater".

 

I also believe that even though i agree with the metal bulls longer term, that most of them are going to end up worse off than if they were right and they will (in retrospect) wish they did not end up getting what they originally wished for. If gold and silver take off "to the moon" as many of them seem to believe, practically everyone is going to be worse or much worse off.

[e1cnr]

Small market + lots of speculation = volatility

 

The Gold market is not small.

 

Maybe not, but there a small number of large banks that have very large positions in their trading divisions for most metals. Trading divisions like movement, and usually do not care which way it is.

[Dcoin]

During the last drop it was impossible to find any willing sellers. I found it takes at least a week for the new normal to set in.

[bochiman]

During the last drop it was impossible to find any willing sellers. I found it takes at least a week for the new normal to set in.

 

Bingo.....

 

Major (for the area) coin show happened here this last weekend. (Most/Many) Dealers were very stubborn and set about the bottom they would sell for, and it sure wasn't what the market suggested (ie....some dealers had their 90% set at 25x spot for silver, and the SAEs for some was at ~$10 premium each). I wasn't so much in the market as I was looking for type/nice coins, but there were plenty that were and the conversations were going on all around me on Friday. Lotta buzz about the spot prices on Friday...bet if the show was on today, it would be even louder.

[Brol]

I'm going to one on Thursday or Friday, I hope we hit $1000 by then... I don't know how but I sold 99% of my silver in $32 range and some of my gold at $1700. I think it's good time to re-buy some and keep buying all the way down..

[RWB]

Sorry to disagree, but the gold market is miniscule compared to most other commodites, and not even visible compared to equities.

[World Colonial]

By commodities, I assume you mean physical commodities (including "paper" trading). How are you measuring the market size?

 

There are a few different methods to measure value. There is value of average trading volume, value of open interest in futures and options and the estimated value of the current physical supply.

 

Going by the first and second which is based upon futures and options, I am not aware that gold is actually smaller than any others except maybe energy. For example, I doubt that gold is less than any individual grains though maybe it is less or somewhat less than all of them combined.

 

In terms of market capitalization (for the entire above ground inventory), I believe that the estimated market value for gold was recently in the $5T to $6T range, somewhat less now due to the recent price drop. I do not see that gold is less than the ones I described either, especially since the others are disproportinately consumed while gold is not.

[World Colonial]

During the last drop it was impossible to find any willing sellers. I found it takes at least a week for the new normal to set in.

 

Bingo.....

 

Major (for the area) coin show happened here this last weekend. (Most/Many) Dealers were very stubborn and set about the bottom they would sell for, and it sure wasn't what the market suggested (ie....some dealers had their 90% set at 25x spot for silver, and the SAEs for some was at ~$10 premium each). I wasn't so much in the market as I was looking for type/nice coins, but there were plenty that were and the conversations were going on all around me on Friday. Lotta buzz about the spot prices on Friday...bet if the show was on today, it would be even louder.

 

I tried to buy some from a well known dealer today and they would not sell Maple Leafs. (I am not interested in bars or rounds.) They would sell gold but not silver. Told me that their suppliers (whoever that is) would not replace their inventory at this time.

[rmpsrpms]

Sorry to disagree, but the gold market is miniscule compared to most other commodites, and not even visible compared to equities.

 

Market size doesn't matter, at least not so far. Why do you think all the world's central banks maintain a store of physical gold? It's certainly not for the investment potential. Cyprus was penalized by the EU and forced to sell much of its reserves, likely the exact leveraged amount versus the confiscation of the Russian depositors...

 

Commodities markets are a game. Gold is the real thing as far as the central banks are concerned.

[RWB]

Market size is meaured in dollars. Gold, silver, platinum, pork bellies -- all are commodities.

[Mark T]

Sorry to disagree, but the gold market is miniscule compared to most other commodites, and not even visible compared to equities.

 

 

 

You are talking to a guy who has been trading stocks for 27 years. Comparing Gold to other commodities is like comparing Apples to Oranges.

[Raisethis2]

I think we can plan on continued downward pressure on both until there is real inflation. Right now there's no good reason for either to go up.

Over the summer, pig out.

[FishyOne]

http://www.monex.com/prods/gold_chart.html

 

HMMMMM

 

 

$1250 anyone

 

I could see a drop to $1250 or even $1200. I also expect it stabilize in the $1400 to $1500 range later this year.

 

At no point in the foreseeable future do I expect sub-$1100 gold and if it drops under $1200 you won't be able to buy any physical at that price.

 

Just my 2 cents.