Silver Gold and Platinum Eagles, Buffalo Issues, and Sales Data For All Moderns

[Eric.Jordan-migration]

For those of you that follow such things I though I would start posting the latest information on moderns that goes across my desk. The final final mintages for the the 2010 gold spouses are below. These are audited numbers as of Sept 29th 2011.

 

Proof First Spouse Gold

2010 Filmore 6130

2010 Pierce 4775

2010 Buchanan 7110

2010 Lincoln 6766*

 

Mint State First Spouse Gold

2010 Filmore 3482

2010 Pierce 3338

2010 Buchanan 5162

2010 Lincoln 3695*

 

Proof Liberty Gold

2007 Jeffersons Liberty 19,815

2008 Jacksons Liberty 7,684

2008 Van Burens Liberty 6,807

2010 Buchanans Liberty 7,110

 

Mint State Liberty Gold

2007 Jeffersons Liberty 19,823

2008 Jacksons Liberty 4,609

2008 Van Burens Liberty 3,826

2010 Buchanans Liberty 5,162

 

Ericj96

[Redemption-migration]

Buchanan numbers came out much higher than anticipated bummer Thanks for the numbers Eric.

[delta]

A hearty welcome to NGC to both Eric.Jordan and Redemption. I'm already a fan of Eric's as a result of his fine book Modern Commemorative Coins, filled with essential insights available nowhere else, and easily obtained from Amazon.com among other places.

 

A question for Eric, please: Can you provide us with the final mintage numbers for the 8-coin-total Liberty subset of the gold first spouses? Thanks!

[revoldlog-migration]

Hi Eric,

 

I would like to ask for your opinion.

 

From an investment point of view, which coins (based on current market price) from the following list do you think will perform better in the medium term? (~3 -5 years)

 

1. Key/semi-key spouse

2. Liberty subset

3. Graded 25th ASE anniversary set

4. Raw 25th ASE anniversary set

5. 2011 W AGE UNC

6. 2011 MOH UNC

7. 2008 fractional gold buffalo

 

PS: I also benefited a lot from Eric's book.

 

Thanks!

[coinman_23885]

Hi Eric,

 

I would like to ask for your opinion.

 

From an investment point of view, which coins (based on current market price) from the following list do you think will perform better in the medium term? (~3 -5 years)

 

1. Key/semi-key spouse

2. Liberty subset

3. Graded 25th ASE anniversary set

4. Raw 25th ASE anniversary set

5. 2011 W AGE UNC

6. 2011 MOH UNC

7. 2008 fractional gold buffalo

 

PS: I also benefited a lot from Eric's book.

 

Thanks!

 

Long term, I think the prices will all drop down to spot or close to it..

[rons]

Welcome Eric to a little slower pace. I have been following your gargantuan thread ATS since it began. A terrific collection of facts, mintage numbers, opinions, and a little entertainment. Your book is a must have for anyone collecting the modern releases. I look forward to your posting here as well. Thanks for the spouse info.

[Eric.Jordan-migration]

Thank you guys for your warm welcome and that includes Coinman. We need a classic collector to bust our chops every now and then to keep us honest. :-)

 

The mintage data requested is above and the questions are below.

 

From an investment point of view, which coins (based on current market price) from the following list do you think will perform better in the medium term? (~3 -5 years)

 

1. Key/semi-key spouse

Answer: One or more of these coins are likey to be outstanding from current market prices but I cant predict which coin will end up the lowest mintage issue. Unless the current sales trends we are seeing in the weekly sales report change we COULD see at least one coin come in under Mrs Julia this coming year. I bought a bunch of UNC Julia and have sold off most but not all to buy liberty short set material (unc Van Buren) because there are fewer variables to guess and I dont like to guess.

 

2. Liberty subset

Answer: These coins are gold, have good looks, are a short and affordable set and at some point they will get promoted because they are perfect candidates for promotion. These sets are closed now and at least we dont have to throw dice anymore on them trying to guess the king. I would say the best buy at current market prices are the unc and proof VB if you can find them in the $1500-1600 range or the proof gold buchanan because its only 4% higher mintage than the VB proof and rarer then the Jackson liberty but cost much less. Buchanans price is reflecting the reduced time it has had to find stable homes. Go reread page 49 covering the inventory dilution cycle.

 

 

3. Graded 25th ASE anniversary set and raw sets.

Answer: Guys bear in mind that this series is the modern Morgan. We are closing in on a total series population of 300,000,000 coins. The total surviving Morgan population is about 380,000,000 so this large good looking modern silver dollar will be as large as the Morgan in about 3-4 years. IF the sales rates hold up until 2020 then it will be larger than all Peace and Morgans pops combined! There will be more than one for every man woman and child in the country very shortly. Large populations of good looking silver series floating around in the hands of the public are like advertisements to start the set.

 

At some point the heard is going to get the bright idea that 100,000-500,000 mintage silver dollars are serious gaps in the midst of affordable multimillion mintage common dates. These coins are almost perfectly placed to mature well longer term. For those of you that did not get the coins at 299/set I would suggest that you let the coins that are now being shipped to flippers that ordered late come to market and drive the price down a little more and then start shopping. Buy 70 anniversary label sets sometime in the next 10 weeks. I cant tell you when the absolute the bottom is but plus minus 20% will not matter in the long run. Just shop along and be a tight wad. Try to pick up 11s and Reverse proof dollars in 69 holders that look good. You can crack them out and send them in over and over if you have to. Be picky now while picky can still be cheap.

 

For those of you that have a copy of my book go reread page 49. These coins are behaving true to model. And by the way the 20th anniversary set went up well past the $300-$400 level we see today and then crashed because a single wealthy guy tried to corner the market and failed. No one right now has tried to corner these coins and $600 to $850 a set is still cheap. I think the 69 and raw 5 coin sets sets are close to the bottom and present low risk.

 

 

4. 2011 W ASE UNC

Answer: They are good coins and current sales trends would indicate that they may come in around 400,000 or less final unless some thing changes. The problem is that the higher cost of silver in impacting sales and next year when an extra 100,000 coins are not dumped on by a 25th ann. set we could see 300,000 mintage 2012W silver eagle. The bottom line is all the W issue silver eagles are going to move into the price range of common date Carson City dollars by the time of series maturity but its very had to predict the cycle time on such things and its hard to know which of the generic W issues will end up dominant looking forward.

 

5. 2011W AGE Unc

Answer: Modern coins stop growing at about $4000 each. This coin may end up sub 10,000 mintage but there are plenty of sub 10,000 mintage coins that are not 2 grand. If it takes out the 2008W $50 gold then the price on the coin may well rise but dont look for big percentage growth because its starting way too high in price.

 

6. 2011 MOH UNC

Answer: What is this?

 

7. 2008 fractional gold buffalo

Answer: They are all great coins and may continue to do very well if the mint does not make any more fractionals. But they are not cheap anymore and large percentage moves are harder as prices rise.

 

If you are asking what coins will pull the hardest then I would say key and semi key modern silver dollars and silver state parks proof sets with mintages under that of the 1999 silver proof quarter sets are good long term candidates. Buy key date material that has good fundamentals and spread yourself around. Buy a little of everything that is likely to be strong. By and large coins that cost over $2,000 are not going to be able to keep pace with cheap keys that cost less than $1500 or even better less than $500. David slays Goliath most of the time on a percentage basis. Go reread page 53

 

Thanks for the question.

 

Eric Jordan

[drei3ree-migration]

Thanks Eric. I sometimes feel like I should pay for the info. you provide!

[ultra-crepidarian]

6. 2011 MOH UNC

Answer: What is this?

 

Eric, this is the 2011 P Medal of Honor (MOH) $5 Mint State Gold Commemorative. Now based on your book, (I own two copies and actual read one), I bought 5 of these NGC Mint State MS 70 Early Releases coins for an average of $506.60 per coin. The series has an unstable design model and is controlled by type coin market dynamics. Hence design appeal is important to future coin appreciation and rarity is a secondary driver (see I did read your book).

 

The $5 MOH MS coin is generally considered an attractive design and it looks to have a relatively small mintage (to date the sales are 7,834 and the coin goes off sale this week: December 16, 2011 at 5:00 PM ET). There are only 150 NGC MS 70 ER coins and 84 NGC MS 70 non-ER coins certified to date. So if I understand what you stated in your book correctly, these should be a profitable investment although these coins won’t be paying for my retirement.

 

If this doesn’t pan out, at least I have a couple used coin books to sell on E-bay. In all seriousness, I really liked your book and it has been very influential in how I approach collecting. I highly recommend it for anyone interested in Modern Coins. Thank you for writing it.

 

[World Colonial]

Hi Eric,

 

I would like to ask for your opinion.

 

From an investment point of view, which coins (based on current market price) from the following list do you think will perform better in the medium term? (~3 -5 years)

 

1. Key/semi-key spouse

2. Liberty subset

3. Graded 25th ASE anniversary set

4. Raw 25th ASE anniversary set

5. 2011 W AGE UNC

6. 2011 MOH UNC

7. 2008 fractional gold buffalo

 

PS: I also benefited a lot from Eric's book.

 

Thanks!

 

Long term, I think the prices will all drop down to spot or close to it..

 

I do not follow these coins but for the most part, I agree. My reason is that in the economic conditions that I see for the forseeable future, most who probably buy these coins will only be able to buy less or pay less than they do now. Or, the "investors" who I believe are disproportionately buying these coins, many will be forced to sell into a falling market under adverse financial circumstances. I base these comments on the assumption that the potential buyers and current owners are mostly less affluent than those who buy US classics (or even world coins like I do) in the same price ranges,

 

From a numismatic standpoint, I find comments about the relatively "low mintages" for any of these issues rather amusing. I know that yes, they are "low" in absolute terms by modern standards but the survivial rates I presume are very high in these grades.

 

In one of the examples given which was compared to the more common "CC" Morgans, though there are a vast number of coins I would prefer to both, I think that the lopsided majority of collectors would still vastly prefer these to any ASE..All these coins have among the worst relative numismatic value of any coins.

 

I consider these coins from a financial standpoint as a substitute to buying gold and silver bullion. Though I agree that there are opportunities to make more money with these coins versus bullion (just as with "investor" coins such as Morgans and common type US gold) by timing the cycle, personally, I would rather own bullion which is exactly what many of these coins actually are anyway.

[Eric.Jordan-migration]

Ultra,

 

I try not to comment on coins with potential anymore before they close because its not good for the coin. The $5 golds both MOH and Army are likely to be good coins if the flippers dont hit them in the next week and drive them past 7999.

 

 

Thanks

 

Eric

[Eric.Jordan-migration]

Well world,

 

Your views are appreciated the only problem its they dont stand up to the market statics that have been showing up over the last 15 years. I know that you will not read it because research is no use to a man with his mind made up before he looks at the numbers. If you have the time why dont you index all the classic PCGS coin classes that they track to constant dollars in the last 15 years and see how your wonderful sub $5000 classic coins have been performing or more accurately not performing. The problem with classic coins is they are an asset class like everything else and asset classes go through infancy, growth and maturity stages. Classics as an asset class are well into the maturity part of the life cycle.

 

Dont take my word for it. Those with an open mind can go to the grey sheet and print out all the key date coins issued by the mint in the new active series from their archives in the last 15 year and see how they perform on a percentage basis. I will help you with this. Better date moderns have out preformed every other coinage class on a percentage basis anyway you wish to measure it.

 

The classic series are mature and the cost of putting together sets is so high now in high grade that it discourages new collectors from undertaking them. Furthermore older series have demographic problems. Much like Cadillac's following is "graying" badly as Bowers and Hall have pointed out.

 

I think I will stick with young cheap key dates in massive series with rapidly expanding collector bases, purchased at low multiples of melt. You guys can stay with older material with stagnant real term growth and key date prices 20-100 times melt and let you cling to the hope that the next generation of collector is both willing and able to pay sky high mark ups for your older coins in series that cant be completed in high grade unless you are Bill Gates.

 

Thanks

 

Eric