Very strange pop numbers

[prudden]

Hey all,

I may be nuts or just hallucinating,but I've been watching the population of a certain Morgan VAM.80S VAM 11 Reason being, I recently acquired a nice high grade example very cheap and had it graded by NGC(MS66).

So, back in December,while it was being graded I looked up both NGC and ATS pops and found they both had around 30 some coin range in MS66(NGC=34). The only way for me to get the PCGS numbers was through Heritage past auction archive.Wish I had save the old page with the lower numbers.

 

With me so far? So,I'm getting ready to sell the coin and I go back to PCGS to get the exact pop number.It jumped to 100+!!! So, what happened here?Within the last couple of months,did someone with 3 or 4 very high grade rolls of this particular VAM just happened to send them in now?It's a common date and probably available in high grade rolls,but VAMs?I don't get it. I could swear both companies pops of this coin were very close to the same.Just my luck to get the great high end coin just when the market gets flooded.Anyway,just very curious about these numbers.

[PCcoins]

Just the way the cookie crumbles. Depends on whats hot at the time, like type B washington quarters, their pops have almost doubled overnight.

[MarkFeld]

Maybe the Heritage information was outdated and the population didn't jump as much recently as it would appear?

[michael]

cherrypicking and increased popularity/demand

 

drives the search for these vams and not only are they out there now they are being avidly searched

 

but MOST IMPORTANTLY

 

then selectively sent into the services for slabbing

 

once slabbed lots of value added $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

seems like yourself and many others decided to do this i know 2 members of my coin club are making this a religion by searching extremely aggressively for these vams and at the many shows they attend have 2 double rwo boxes of vam morgans to submit for slabbing and attribution ie. pcgs

 

 

[World Colonial]

With US coins, my assumption is that most coins with low population numbers actually have far more of them out there than the census indicates unless the coin is already expensive. It might not always be true and it might apply less to die varieities (and of course conditional rarities), but it should generally be true. US coins are the most competitively collected and penetrated market out there.

[michael]

With US coins, my assumption is that most coins with low population numbers actually have far more of them out there than the census indicates unless the coin is already expensive. It might not always be true and it might apply less to die varieities (and of course conditional rarities), but it should generally be true. US coins are the most competitively collected and penetrated market out there.

 

summed up and put into words well (thumbs u

[MarkFeld]

cherrypicking and increased popularity/demand

 

drives the search for these vams and not only are they out there now they are being avidly searched

 

but MOST IMPORTANTLY

 

then selectively sent into the services for slabbing

 

once slabbed lots of value added $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

seems like yourself and many others decided to do this i know 2 members of my coin club are making this a religion by searching extremely aggressively for these vams and at the many shows they attend have 2 double rwo boxes of vam morgans to submit for slabbing and attribution ie. pcgs

 

That wouldn't usually account for an increase on population from 30 to 100 in a three month period, after all these years of slabbing.

[cpm9ball]

cherrypicking and increased popularity/demand

 

drives the search for these vams and not only are they out there now they are being avidly searched

 

but MOST IMPORTANTLY

 

then selectively sent into the services for slabbing

 

once slabbed lots of value added $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

seems like yourself and many others decided to do this i know 2 members of my coin club are making this a religion by searching extremely aggressively for these vams and at the many shows they attend have 2 double rwo boxes of vam morgans to submit for slabbing and attribution ie. pcgs

 

That wouldn't usually account for an increase on population from 30 to 100 in a three month period, after all these years of slabbing.

 

According to QDB's Red Book of Morgan Dollars, the certified population of the 1880-S in MS66 was 12,000+ when the book was published in 2004. I would imagine that a lot of those were certified long before the "Hot 50" list even existed. It has only been fairly recent that dealers have become more interested in "Top 100" & "Hot 50" VAM's since the SSDC started publishing their price guide. Perhaps more dealers have been checking their inventory against these lists for unattributed specimens.

 

Chris

[MarkFeld]

cherrypicking and increased popularity/demand

 

drives the search for these vams and not only are they out there now they are being avidly searched

 

but MOST IMPORTANTLY

 

then selectively sent into the services for slabbing

 

once slabbed lots of value added $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

seems like yourself and many others decided to do this i know 2 members of my coin club are making this a religion by searching extremely aggressively for these vams and at the many shows they attend have 2 double rwo boxes of vam morgans to submit for slabbing and attribution ie. pcgs

 

That wouldn't usually account for an increase on population from 30 to 100 in a three month period, after all these years of slabbing.

According to QDB's Red Book of Morgan Dollars, the certified population of the 1880-S in MS66 was 12,000+ when the book was published in 2004. I would imagine that a lot of those were certified long before the "Hot 50" list even existed. It has only been fairly recent that dealers have become more interested in "Top 100" & "Hot 50" VAM's since the SSDC started publishing their price guide. Perhaps more dealers have been checking their inventory against these lists for unattributed specimens.

 

Chris

Perhaps so, but I doubt that would result in a 200%+ increase in the population in only 3 months.

[World Colonial]

There are just over 9800 just in the NGC census in MS-66 right now. Even assuming a lot of duplicate submisisons, there should be at least 12000 when combined with PCGS.

 

I have no idea what the price difference is between the "regular" 1880-S and this particular die variety, but your explanation makes sense.

[cpm9ball]

Mark,

 

A 200% increase in population is one thing if you're talking about a jump from 1,000 to 3,000 VAM-11's, but we're only talking about an increase from 30+ to 100+. That would be less than one per day over a three month period, and if a handful of dealers sent in several at a time, the daily average would be considerably less.

 

World,

 

I don't have a current Greysheet, but I'm guessing that BID would be about $250 for a plain 80-S in MS66. The current VAMView Retail Price Guide only goes as high as MS65, and the VAM-11 is quoted at $400 in that grade. The only recorded sales on VAMWorld go back to 2/07.......an MS65 sold for $336.75 and an MS65DMPL sold for $590.63.

 

Chris

[prudden]

Mark,

 

A 200% increase in population is one thing if you're talking about a jump from 1,000 to 3,000 VAM-11's, but we're only talking about an increase from 30+ to 100+. That would be less than one per day over a three month period, and if a handful of dealers sent in several at a time, the daily average would be considerably less.

 

World,

 

I don't have a current Greysheet, but I'm guessing that BID would be about $250 for a plain 80-S in MS66. The current VAMView Retail Price Guide only goes as high as MS65, and the VAM-11 is quoted at $400 in that grade. The only recorded sales on VAMWorld go back to 2/07.......an MS65 sold for $336.75 and an MS65DMPL sold for $590.63.

 

Chris

 

Heritage has a couple of recent numbers for the MS66 VAM 11.Two of the latest are $460.00 and $517.00 both PCGS.

 

It's also interesting that the PCGS number changed so much ,but NGC pop is essentially the same. Aren't these populations entered in the data bases when they are final?

[michael]

i think>> pcgs pops went up more as i think pcgs puts the vam number/reconizes this variety as top 100 or 50?? on their holder and ngc doesnot??

 

 

 

 

[cpm9ball]

Mark,

 

A 200% increase in population is one thing if you're talking about a jump from 1,000 to 3,000 VAM-11's, but we're only talking about an increase from 30+ to 100+. That would be less than one per day over a three month period, and if a handful of dealers sent in several at a time, the daily average would be considerably less.

 

World,

 

I don't have a current Greysheet, but I'm guessing that BID would be about $250 for a plain 80-S in MS66. The current VAMView Retail Price Guide only goes as high as MS65, and the VAM-11 is quoted at $400 in that grade. The only recorded sales on VAMWorld go back to 2/07.......an MS65 sold for $336.75 and an MS65DMPL sold for $590.63.

 

Chris

 

Heritage has a couple of recent numbers for the MS66 VAM 11.Two of the latest are $460.00 and $517.00 both PCGS.

 

It's also interesting that the PCGS number changed so much ,but NGC pop is essentially the same. Aren't these populations entered in the data bases when they are final?

 

Prudden,

 

It's not surprising that the NGC population has remained the same. If you've spent any time on the VAMWorld site, you'd realize that many of the members, there, don't like NGC for their VAM attributions. It also happens that many of those members are dealers, too. Most of them submit their problem-free VAM's to either PCGS or ANACS, but more often the dealers use PCGS because they're worth more money than ANACS slabs.

 

I'm not sure that I understand your question about the databases. If you are asking if the NGC & PCGS (and ANACS) populations are combined on the VAMWorld site, the answer is "No!"

 

Chris

[cpm9ball]

i think>> pcgs pops went up more as i think pcgs puts the vam number/reconizes this variety as top 100 or 50?? on their holder and ngc doesnot??

 

 

 

 

Michael, NGC does attribute both Top 100 and Hot 50.

 

Chris

[michael]

interesting and thanks for the information

 

i wonder if that the pcgs holder with the vam number/top 50 100 is just in great demand by current buyers?? hence the owners of the raw coins submit to pcgs first??

[cpm9ball]

interesting and thanks for the information

 

i wonder if that the pcgs holder with the vam number/top 50 100 is just in great demand by current buyers?? hence the owners of the raw coins submit to pcgs first??

 

Michael, I think my response to Prudden might answer your question.

 

Chris

[prudden]

Some good points all.Thanks.

I'm not sure why PCGS VAMs are more sought after than NGC VAMs,but then again,most PCGS coins usually sell for a little more

 

 

 

 

 

[RWB]

Maybe I should not have my rolls of 1893-CC and 1900-O/CC slabbed -- might ruin the population numbers....birth control for Morgans?

[cpm9ball]

Maybe I should not have my rolls of 1893-CC and 1900-O/CC slabbed -- might ruin the population numbers....birth control for Morgans?

 

Possibly, but you could also send one of each to me for my birthday.

 

Chris

[RWB]

...you could also send one of each to me for my birthday.

 

Great idea! I'll do that just as soon as my kids finish graduate school on the money provided by the coins....

 

[cpm9ball]

...you could also send one of each to me for my birthday.

 

Great idea! I'll do that just as soon as my kids finish graduate school on the money provided by the coins....

 

Rats! I knew there would be a catch.

[michael]

interesting and thanks for the information

 

i wonder if that the pcgs holder with the vam number/top 50 100 is just in great demand by current buyers?? hence the owners of the raw coins submit to pcgs first??

 

Michael, I think my response to Prudden might answer your question.

 

Chris

 

got it thanks chris (thumbs u i see your point perfectly and it makes sence

[prudden]

So,I should get it re-slabbed ATS,both grade the coins very similar.How about CAC too. I still don't get why PCGS slabbed coins are generally costlier. I guess someone has to be number one.