opinions on 1893-S morgan

[JIM F.]

I'm thinking about purchasing this key. Appreciate opinions on where (if any) the best "value" may be -- e.g. grade, TPG service (or raw) , et cetera.

 

Let's keep the topic broad, but please only comment on what is relevant to acquisition of a 1893-S morgan.

 

THANKS!

 

 

[World Colonial]

I woud not buy this coin raw. Not sure what the risk of buying a counterfeit is but I do not consider it worthwhile. A lower but still significant enough risk exists in my opinion with the possbility of buying a problem coin, unless you know how to detect it and buy it for much less.

 

As for the best grade for the money, I checked the Heritage archives and even in low grade with problems, this coin is expensive, as I would have expected. XF-40 or XF-45 had a few sales in the last year for just under $10,000 and AU-50 around $15,000 or a little more. VF was about $6,000. If I were to buy this coin and were willing to spend the money, I would probably go for the XF.

[123cents]

I personally wouldn't buy a key date like this unless it were slabbed by NGC or PCGS.

[TomB]

This is a relatively common key date that is quite similar to the 1909-S VDB Lincoln, 1937-D Buffalo, 1932-D and S Washingtons or 1916-D Merc in that there are always a fair number of coins available. Therefore, I would be quite patient and not feel any sense of urgency to jump on the first coin that is offered.

[JIM F.]

I agree,I would not buy it raw.

So let's eliminate that from the discussion.

 

Let's continue the topic as I am inclined to make a purchase on this coin......or is a 1894 Philly a better acquisition a better move??

[coinman23885-migration]

I think the 1894 Philadelphia Morgan Dollar is highly under priced. I saw an uncirculated version on eBay in a PCGS MS62 or 63 holder for $3200 a few months back.

[michael]

since you wanted an opinion on an 1893-s morgan here it is

 

an extremely popular coin from one of the most popular series collected by date

 

this has been a promoted coin the last few years or so and so it is overpriced and hence the last 8 or so months prices have come down but they are still strong in my opinion

 

and there is always an 1893-s morgan available for sale if you so choose to buy one

 

the problems is moat all certified have had some sort of cleaning in the circ grades and

 

i would only buy one certified

i would only buy pcgs as this is the more market acceptable and easiest to sell demand wise

i would buy an original dove grey never dipped cleaned and non hairlined coin---good luck as this will be hard to do but they are out there

 

i would buy a nice high end fine 15 coin that has enough meat on it gradewise to still be acceptable

 

and something to has claims to vf and in this price range it is more easily saleable to people who need this date but dont have 5500+ to spend on a vf

 

 

good luck

 

also i would guesstimate that there are approx. 10,000 1893-s morgans still surviving with the majority in below xf and of course many still in collections raw

 

 

[World Colonial]

The 1894 might be a better deal than the 1893-S, I do not know. Presumably many collectors could prefer it over the 1893-S because they would rather have a higher grade coin.

 

But $3200 per the example you gave is hardly cheap for a coin that has almost 1000 mint state coins just in the NGC census. Even for a popular series that is a very large supply.

[James_OldeTowne]

Purchase of the 1893-S is going to set the tone for the rest of your Morgan dollar collection. So the most important question is simply: how much? Do you want your overall set to match up well?

 

If you go cheap (relative term, these are severely overpriced in my opinion in AG - VG), you will have to lower the overall condition of your other coins considerably - and trying to find certain issues in VG is actually tougher than locating an 1893-S in a higher grade!

 

Then again, if you plan to go XF/AU, then realize the high cost of just this single coin, versus the cost of others in your collection. You might be pricing yourself right out of the market.

 

1893-S is actually pretty easy to authenticate, so I wouldn't be overly concerned about having it certified provided your seller is reputable. But please don't try to get a "bargain" on eBay or some obscure online seller.

[MarkW]

The entire mintage of the 1893-S Morgan Dollar was struck using only 1 obverse die and only 2 reverse dies thus making authentication fairly simple. The key diagnostic is a small diagonal polishing line near the junction of the crossbar and upright on the "T" in LIBERTY. Many counterfeits exist with an added "S" to an 1893-P or an "8" altered to a "3" on an 1898-S. I would lean towards an NGC or PCGS slab over a raw coin to ensure authenticity and gradeability. If an 1893-S is still raw, there could be a reason. If consistency of grade is important to your Morgan set, concessions may have to be made on this coin or ALL the rest. With 105 Morgans needed to complete an NGC registry set, I have no problem with seeking the best that I can afford with little thought about maintaining a consistant grade throughout. There are some dates and mintmarks that I'll never own in MS and this is the lowest graded member of my set and may forever remain such.

Choose the grade and price that satisfies your need and your wallet.

 

[messydesk]

Buy a PCGS or NGC VF or better. In lower grades, they're not as "fun," since so much of the detail is gone. If you run across a raw one at what seems a reasonable price, add what it will cost to get it certified, and then offer that to the seller on the condition that it first grades in a problem free PCGS or NGC holder. Every response except for "OK" is a good reason to keep looking.

[cpm9ball]

Here is a link to the VAMWorld listing for the 1893-S.

 

Chris

 

http://www.vamworld.com/1893-S+VAMs

[James_OldeTowne]

By the way, this is another one of those coins where a cleaned example doesn't bother me much, provided it isn't ugly. I've seen a couple of UNCs that were only lightly cleaned, and for a multi-thousand dollar discount, I can accept a few hairlines.

 

(This is one reason why I wouldn't limit myself to certified examples.)

[cpm9ball]

I'd take a cleaned MS64 any day if the seller would discount it $300K.

 

Chris

[kryptonitecomics]

personally I have zero interest in circulated Morgans which is why I would steer clear of an 1893-S and there is equally zero chance that I could ever afford one. With that being said....if yo just have to get an example then I wouldn't purchase one below a VF 20 if at all possible.

[WoodenJefferson]

1893-S Morgan

 

Survival Estimate,

all grades 9,948 rarity 3.0

MS60 or better 123 rarity 7.7

MS65 or better 18 rarity 9.2

 

POP 171/G-4, 319/VF-12, 362/XF-40, AU55/25, MS62/6

 

Recent activity, G-4 $1955, G-6 $2070, VG-8 $1957, VG-10 $2760

[$ilverHawk]

Agree, and listen to James. The 1893-S is relatively easy to authenicate. If you buy raw, just be sure you are working with a seller that allows the time for authenication. James is also correct on the point that this coin is currently over priced in the XF-AU grade ranges. MS, hey, if you've got the resources go for it. So examine your budget carefully. Let's face it just how many authenic 1893-S Morgans remained unslabbed? Clearly the easiest, safest way to go is with a NGC or PCGS slabbed coin.

 

I disagree with a previous post that stated the 1893-S is a common key date. How can it be a common key date with a mintage of 100,000? However over hyped, the 1893-S is the key date of the Morgan series.

 

All you have to do is decide what you want to spend to add this coin to your collection.

 

Good luck in your pursuit.

 

$ilverHawk

 

 

[World Colonial]

In terms of whether the 1893-S is common or not, is is all relative. If the number of surviving specimens is actually around 10,000, on an absolute basis I would classify it as common. That number and even far fewer provide ample opportunity for anyone who can afford it to find and buy one.

 

However, since the mintages for most US coins are much higher than other countries (including those I collect) since the population and economy was and is larger, by US coin standards, I would rate it moderately scarce in "average grade" and only scarce or "rare" in mint state.

 

As for whether it is under or over priced, I consider it absurdly overpriced in any grade given its availability and/or relative scarcity. But since this is the most popular series in the world for one which involves larger outlays, I know that it is expensive despite its availability.

[$ilverHawk]

Hogwash, Do a little research before you make your statements. NGC has cerified 2012 1993-S. 27 MS and 1985 G to AU. PCGS numbers would be expected to be similar.

 

Explain to me how the major authorities in numismatics state that the 1893-S is the key date in the Morgan series by rarity and you some how arrive at a different conclusion.

 

Reality, rare in all grades.

 

Carl

[World Colonial]

I do not care if you disagree with me, but contrary to your statements, what I wrote is not "hogwash". I am looking at exactly the same data as you are but simply arrive at a different conclusion by comparing the scarcity of this coin to all others, including those outside the Morgan Dollar series.

 

There is a difference between "key date" and rare. "Key date" simply means that it is either one of the more expensive or more difficult issues to obtain for that series, no more and no less. As with rarity, "key" date is a relative term but most are generally just the more expensive coin in the series and are not difficult to find at all.

 

How can a coin be rare in an absolute sense if it can be located at any given time? If this is the reality, the coin is not rare no matter what it costs or even if it is a "key" date. For the 1893-S, in mint state the coin is "rare" but that is a narrow definition of rarity based upon the grade. The same applies to other "key dates" mentioned in this thread such as the 1909-S VDB cent, 1916-D dime and 1932-S quarters.

 

As a date, the 1893-S is not rare no matter what anyone says except in this relative sense. According to the Heritage archives, the combined census for NGC and PCGS is about 6000 though that invariably includes some duplicates since it is an expensive coin. That is a huge number for a supposedly "rare" coin.

 

If I could speak to these experts you reference and this is the claim they make, I would simply tell them that anyone who thinks that this coin is rare has never collected coins which are actually difficult to find.

 

I am a specialist in coins that are not widely collected, such as Spanish colonial pillar minors, which is why the coins are cheap. But many of my coins are actually rare and anyone who has ever tried to find them will know that they are because they either cannot be found at all or only occassionally.

 

There are certain Morgan Dollars which are rare. By my definition, the branch mint proofs. By others who specialize in this series, certain VAM varieties, conditional rarities and those coins which have particular eye appeal.

 

But as a set consisting of dates and mintmarks only, no Morgan is rare except in a relative sense. The 1893-S, 1892-S, 1889-CC, 1894 or any other date are not remotely rare. The Philadelphia mint proofs are not rare either having mintages between 500 and 1000. Its not just the mintages which any impartial observer can use to arrive at this conclusion, but the frequency with which these coins come up for sale.

 

Anyone who wants to buy these coins can find most of them almost at any time or on short notice, just by contacting a dealer or at the next major auction.

 

These comments are independent of their merits as a collectible. I like Morgan Dollars but have no interest in acquiring any of them, just as others have no interest in my series are not trying to buy coins like mine..

[cpm9ball]

I was wondering if anyone would mention VAM's. For me, I would consider the 1878 8TF VAM-9 rarer than any 1893-S because only 303 were struck on March 11, 1878 before the die failed.

 

Chris

[BillJones]

1. As a collector I would NEVER buy an 1893-S dollar raw. There were too many counterfeits before the Chinese got into the act, and now there must be a great many more. In addition problem coins are always around, and if you can't spot them, you stand a good chance of getting stuck with one. In the current market you should stick with NGC and PCGS graded coins. Forget the "third world" slabs. They are usually trouble waiting to happen.

 

2. The ideal grades for this date are Choice VF (VF-30) to EF-45. In AU-50 the Gray Sheet bid price jumps from $7,100 in VF to $18,500 in AU. I've found that a lot of AU-50 graded coins leave something to be desired, and that you really need to go up to AU-55 or 58 if you choose that grade. At those levels you could spend $30,000 on this date or a little more.

 

3. If you can't afford the coin in VF, I've seen some decent coins in VG and Fine. The trick is find coins that have not been cleaned. That means the ideal coin with be an attractive gray color, NOT bright white.

 

4. Don't buy this coin with the idea that it is a great rarity; it's not. There are a few dealers out there who specialize in this date, and I've seen as many as ten pieces in one dealer's stock ranging from VG to AU. If this were a truly scarce to rare coin there is no way that a small to medium sized dealer could have ten of them in stock, and many of his buddies on the bourse floor would have one or two more.

[WoodenJefferson]

The 1893-S Morgan dollar is considered a “pseudo-rarity” then, because it would be in the best interest of anyone holding one of these coins to keep it in this perceived realm of scarcity.

 

Sure, your not going to get one in change and your not going to see one in every dealers inventory, but if your pockets are deep and you have the means, you can own one of these (at least in the Morgan community) fabled coins.

 

My memory is vague, but weren’t some of these bogus Morgan's coming out of Israel during the 70’s?

[$ilverHawk]

You are defining rarity as mintage independent of demand. I am defining rarity as mintage in consideration of demand. We are talking about collectibility.

 

If you have a coin that has a mintage of 1000 and a collectibilty demand of 250 it is not rare. If you have a coin with a mintage of 100,000 with 6,000 availible and a demand of 20,000 that coin is rare to collect. I'm positive that there are more than 20,000 Morgan Dollar collectors worldwide.

 

The fact that you can locate a coin doesn't influence its rarity. The Smithsonian Museum has 2 1933 St. Gaudens. That's the location. Are they rare? Granted, a bit of a hyperbole, the point is just because you can locate a coin that doesn't imply that it is easy to collect. Look at all the classic "rare " coins we know where they are but does that mean they are easily collectible?

 

For a very good treatise on rarity I refer you to Q. David Bowers "The Expert's Guide to Collecting & Investing In Rare Coins" Chapter 6.

 

Being the among the most widely collected series in the world the Morgan Dollar generates rarities in mint dates, mint marks and VAMS.

 

Rarity in terms of collectibility includes availibilty in terms of demand and that translates to cost to collect and in the real world that translates to rarity.

[BillJones]

Rarity in terms of collectibility includes availibilty in terms of demand and that translates to cost to collect and in the real world that translates to rarity.

 

Your argument runs in circles. The mere fact that you can go to ANY major coin show and pick and choose among a significant number of 1893-S silver dollars in the circulated grades proves that the coin is not rare. It’s not like an 1802 half dime which rarely becomes available, even at the major shows. If you have got the money, you can buy the coin easily. Even if you don’t go to major coins shows, you will find it at a local show without having to wait years to do so.

 

The 1893-S dollar is a condition rarity in Choice Mint State and higher. It has long been recognized as such, and the price history is there to prove it. But overall there is nothing rare about it as a date and mint mark combination. If you don’t need one in Mint State, locating one has never been difficult.

 

[RGT]

You are using the word "locate" in the literal sense instead of the common usage in coin collecting. To "locate" a coin doesn't mean to just find out where one physically is. It means finding one available for sale that you can purchase. In that sense, you can't loacate a 1933 double eagle until the one legal coin is put up for public sale. However, at any large show you can locate dozens of 1893-S Morgans.

 

Of course true rarity is not just determined by how easy it is to locate an example. Many coins are just not worth enough for most dealers to stock and are therefore somewhat difficult to locate even though they are extremly common.

[World Colonial]

I am late in responding, as other have already done so, but have a few comments to add.

 

Neither you nor anyone else need to explain to me what a real rare coin actually is and except for the example I provided in the last post, no Morgan Dollar is rare by anything other than a very loose definition of that term. The branch mint proofs are absolutely rare because only a handful of them exist and are available at all while the others (toned coins, conditional rarities and some VAM) are rare in the narrow (and in my opinion sometimes arbitrary) sense.

 

I agree with you that there is a difference between rarity and availability. But in the example of the 1893-S Morgan, even if there are actually 20,000 collectors who are trying to buy the coin, this coin is not rare. As others have pointed out, ANY coIn which can be purchased essentially at will is NOT rare. That this coin is one of them is apparently true and is consistent with my observations from the Heritage archives. Most coins that really are rare not only have nowhere near 6000 surviving specimens, quite a few of them had original mintages less than that.

 

Looking at US coins, issues like the 1794 Dollar, 1802 half dime and 1796 half cent are rare by most collector's standards and somewhat rare by mine. But the fact is that they are not available very often which makes them BOTH rare and hard to find.

 

Other coins such as the 1796-1797 half dollars are considered rare by most collectors but they are not that hard to find. I see them regularly in large auctions and while I do not consider them common, since the estimated surviving population is 300, I do not see them as particularly rare either.

 

Contrast this with some of the coins I collect. The pillar minors I collect and own in high grade are occasionally available from Mexico but almost never from any other mint. Most of the other mints are either damaged and badly worn (Bolivia) for the few which are available or not available at all (Guatemala). For Peru, there are a very small number in existence in high grade (example: I have seven graded AU-58 or better 1/2 real out of the 12 publicly recorded) but even in lower grades, there are still not very many. Same goes for a coin like the 1931 South Africa 2 shillings or other 1931 silver denomination. In 12 years of collecting this series, I have seen EXACTLY ONE 1931 2/, a scratched VF late last year.

 

The easiest test to determine whether a coin is rare or not is how long it would take most collectors to find one. For Morgan Dollars, to complete a set of business strikes excluding die varieties and conditional rarities would take how long? One week? All the coins could probably be found in one day except that the collector might literally not have the time to make the necessary phone calls or internet searches.

 

If you disagree with my assessment, that is fine and its pointless to debate this endlessly because rarity is a relative concept. However, what I have described is consistent with the usage that many use, though my standard of rarity is presumably much stricter than most.

[World Colonial]

You are using the word "locate" in the literal sense instead of the common usage in coin collecting. To "locate" a coin doesn't mean to just find out where one physically is. It means finding one available for sale that you can purchase. In that sense, you can't loacate a 1933 double eagle until the one legal coin is put up for public sale. However, at any large show you can locate dozens of 1893-S Morgans.

 

Of course true rarity is not just determined by how easy it is to locate an example. Many coins are just not worth enough for most dealers to stock and are therefore somewhat difficult to locate even though they are extremly common.

 

Correct. But there is also the situation that many coins are not available and the scarcity is unknown because the coin is cheap and those who own it are not willing to sell those they have. This is not usually a problem with US coins but definitely exists with at least some of the coins I collect. The actual rarity is unknown due to this.

[$ilverHawk]

Definition: Rarity in terms of collectibility includes mintage amount and availibily in terms of demand and that translates to cost to collect and in the real world that translates to rarity.

 

Question that has been avoided--if you have a coin with a very low mintage and very few desire to collect it, is it rare in terms of collectibility? Conversely if you have a coin with a higher mintage and it is in demand from a great many collectors but they cannot afford to buy it at market prices is it rare in terms of collectibility?

 

 

 

Carl

[World Colonial]

The answer to your questions are still the same because the price of the coin is the adjusting factor in both instances. And the price of the coin does not in and of itself make a coin common, scarce or rare. It will only impact the frequency that it comes up for sale.

 

Of the coins that are "rare" or "scarce", all or almost all of those which are cheap or considered cheap are world coins. In the examples I gave for the coins I collect, at least some of them presumably in actuality exist in larger numbers than the supply at any given time indicates. This is exactly what happened with South Africa Union after I started collecting them in 1998.

 

The prices in Krause (which is what I used) and presumably the South Africa prices guides were really low, so there was little incentive for those who owned them to sell them.

 

Since 2006, prices have increased substantially and many of the coins are now more available than they were, but only a small proportion are relatively easy to find in high grade and many even in any grade.

 

Just as in economics generally, increased prices will invariably increase supply IF it exists. In the example of the 1931 2 shillings I gave, apparently very few do or else the best Union collection in the world would have one which it does not. (All coins in this collection are mint state except for a handful which are AU-58. The 1931 half crown is a "VF Details".)

 

The conclusion to this is that if a coin is both expensive (or at least increases in price substantially) and still not available with any frequency, then it is either "scarce" or "rare" but cannot be common.

 

This addresses the question of coins which are "cheap" but may not be available.

 

To your second question. For rarity to retain any meaning, the definition cannot include any coin that many collectors want to buy but cannot afford regardless of how many there are.

 

Its true that there are more collectors of Morgan Dollars than most other series and I would estimate that it is the number one series for its price range. The prices of the individual coins versus others in the same grades prove that DESPITE the fact that Morgan Dollars are easily one of the most common series among US coins.

 

Extending that logic to other coins, that would make any coin of moderate cost which is unaffordable to most collectors "rare". Its completely subjective but most collectors do not own coins that cost $10,000, $1000 or maybe even hundreds of dollars. Many yes, but most no even though they presumably would like to own them.

 

Turning the logic around to your first question, if coins that are expensive today (whether with large or reasonably large populations or not) suddenly became cheap, would that change their scarcity? No, because it is the supply that determines the rarity and the demand for the given supply which determines the price. The two are not the same and never will be. Otherwise, in theory coins would become common, scarce or rare as the prices changed and that is illogical.

 

I'm not sure if this answers your questions because of your phrase "in terms of collectibility". Coins that are not collectible because of price are simply expensive, whether they are rare or not.