Why I Think I Talked Myself Out of Buying the 2009 Platinum Eagle

[astrostu]

I had pretty much convinced myself that I was going to buy this coin. Why? Because ...

 

(1) I like the idea of the 6-year series. I think it has promise, and I like the design.

 

(2) I want to keep my PAE set going.

 

(3) I can afford it, though I don't really want to spend that kind of money on a single coin.

 

 

But over the last few days, I think I've talked myself out of it:

 

(1) Most observers would agree we're in a precious metals bubble at the moment and it's probably not the best time to buy gold nor platinum. Especially with the kind of markup the Mint has on the item.

 

(2) I don't like the design more than I like past designs, like the Vistas of Liberty series for the first 7 (I think?) years of the program. I'd like to go back and buy those and I would rather have those than have a single coin.

 

(3) Similarly, I don't want that coin for $1700 more - quite less, actually - than I want some other coins or sets, so the money would likely be "better" spent elsewhere.

 

(4) Though I like the design, it's not as good as many of the other proposed designs were for this concept (story of the Mint lately ...). I searched, trying to remind myself what they were, but I couldn't find them.

 

 

Now, if the Mint had continued to release these as 1/10 oz coins, too, I'd be all over it. But right now, me plopping down nearly $2k on a single coin is, well, kinda silly when I could spend that money elsewhere on things that I would much rather have (and are not necessarily coins).

[World Colonial]

I like your analysis.

 

I would not agree with the comment though that "most observers" think we are in a precious metals bubble. To the contrary, given the level of bullishness by traders in the futures markets sentiment data now and in the recent past, they apparently believe the opposite. And I would say that the lopsided majority of participants on this board (and the public generally who pay any attention) not only do not believe that there is a bubble, but that the bull market has a long way to go.

 

I do not believe there is a bubble either, but I still think that prices are going to fall in the near term anyway, as I have explained in my prior posts including one today. I have been wrong this year but the combination of lopsided bullishness and the conditions which I believe overwhelmingly support the deflationary case lead me to my conclusion. (Those who are bullish use what I would describe as incorrect interpretations of the same data in some instances to arrive at the opposite conclusion.)

 

I agree with you that I do not care for the premiums on this type of coin, though I do not know exactly what it is now. I believe that buying strictly bullion material is a better alternatve to these modern proofs to those who want to have a position.

[DC Dawg]

I have conversations with myself all of the time. Most people look at me funny, but I tell them that I can't find anyone more intelligent to talk to!

 

 

Scott

[astrostu]

Okay, just for the record, by "bubble" I mean that they're rising sharply and are going to crash soon but still end up higher than they were before. Do I think they'll go back down to, say, 2005 levels? No. But do I think they'll be below where they are at the moment? Yes.

 

Oh, and the premium on the platinum is $300, I think.

[World Colonial]

Yes, I thought about that after I wrote my post. $1700 based upon today's prices is not that much of a premium.

 

And by the way, I also think that metal prices will decline substantially "soon". I just do not know exactly when "soon" will be. I believe sometime next year because I expect this facade of economic prosperity to be shown for the false and artificial thing that it is.

 

[michael]

I had pretty much convinced myself that I was going to buy this coin. Why? Because ...

 

(1) I like the idea of the 6-year series. I think it has promise, and I like the design.

 

(2) I want to keep my PAE set going.

 

(3) I can afford it, though I don't really want to spend that kind of money on a single coin.

 

 

But over the last few days, I think I've talked myself out of it:

 

(1) Most observers would agree we're in a precious metals bubble at the moment and it's probably not the best time to buy gold nor platinum. Especially with the kind of markup the Mint has on the item.

 

(2) I don't like the design more than I like past designs, like the Vistas of Liberty series for the first 7 (I think?) years of the program. I'd like to go back and buy those and I would rather have those than have a single coin.

 

(3) Similarly, I don't want that coin for $1700 more - quite less, actually - than I want some other coins or sets, so the money would likely be "better" spent elsewhere.

 

(4) Though I like the design, it's not as good as many of the other proposed designs were for this concept (story of the Mint lately ...). I searched, trying to remind myself what they were, but I couldn't find them.

 

 

Now, if the Mint had continued to release these as 1/10 oz coins, too, I'd be all over it. But right now, me plopping down nearly $2k on a single coin is, well, kinda silly when I could spend that money elsewhere on things that I would much rather have (and are not necessarily coins).

 

great

 

buy instead for under $1800.00

 

a nice vf20 average+ surfaces with good eye appeal 1794 cent

 

a 1794 halfcent with full details both obverse and reverse fine15-vf20 this will be hard to find but not impossible also with average+ surfaces

 

a nice xf+/au three dollar gold piece 1854

 

 

 

[astrostu]

great, buy instead for under $1800.00 ...

 

Actually, part of the problem is that I'm also, oh, about $1k over on my coin budget for the year, plus over $1.5k over on my photography budget for the year (since I bought a Canon 7D and hadn't planned on it).

 

It's more of a realization that if I was willing to spend that kind of money on that coin, I should probably put it towards other things that I want more, instead (like retroactively to the camera).

[michael]

i totally understand

 

i hope the holidays brings you some unexpected coin cash for one fav special purchase in 2010

 

also maybe you might take a little profit on some gold or silver bullion type material and/or generic gold and plow some into more scarce to rare early federal and/or colonial coinage

 

or a neat scarce 19th century type coin

[RareSov]

I wouldn't call it a bubble. Simply inflation going stupid. Generic gold collectors who had heaps already should be grinning. Why sell now though. Expect much higher prices soon

[JIM F.]

Think of those who could have afforded it but didn't buy Pan Pac $50 gold pieces at issue because they didn't want to pay the premium over the price of gold. Even worse, the "oh sh*t" when they tell that story to their children!

 

With an issue of only 8,000 once they sell out at the mint, my opinion is that the price goes up at least 25% over issue price. The telemarketers can potentially drive it up more.

 

Maybe the mint will throw in a "surprise" like they did with the 1995 gold set!!!!

 

Perhaps you can talk yourself back into a purchase.

 

 

[cpm9ball]

I have convursations with mysef all of the time. Most pipple look at me funny, but I tell them that I can't fine anyone less intelligence to talk too!

 

 

Scott

 

Do you carry a woman's compact mirror with you?

 

 

[font:Impact] Darn it, look at me when I'm talking to you! [/font]

 

Chris