Observations from the Long Beach show

[JIM F.]

Low turnout. I was interested in several coins, but the dealers would not offer prices that were anything close to even considering. Most dealers shut down 1 hour or more before the show ended. The one coin I was most interested in, I was unable to purchase because the dealer left the show early.

 

I think the best way to buy coins is through Ebay or Heritage. These shows aren't working for a collector with cash who knows the market.

 

About the only transactions I observed were people selling to dealers, not the other way around.

 

Just my observations. I came with a few thousand dollars in cash to spend and left without a purchase.

 

 

 

[x2rider]

Nothing worse than arriving somewhere with cash in your pocket and nothing to spend it on

[James_OldeTowne]

Low turnout. I was interested in several coins, but the dealers would not offer prices that were anything close to even considering. Most dealers shut down 1 hour or more before the show ended. The one coin I was most interested in, I was unable to purchase because the dealer left the show early.

Unfortunately, I think this will happen more and more often. It is kind of like trying to buy a house that someone bought during the height of the market. They may have paid $300,000 for their house in 2006, but it is only worth $240,000 now, and they are just not willing to accept that kind of loss.

[mommam17]

James- I think you are right on with that. I see many commems for sale that will not sell anywhere near the asking price.

[BillJones]

James I think that you are right, but smart business know that when a market drops, the best thing to do is to take your losses and start turning over your inventory at the new levels. The problem with that, however, is that perhaps they can't replace the inventory they have sold at the new levels. I'm not interested in selling anything significant right now, but if I were in the market to sell, I think I'd hold off for a bit.

[physics-fan3.14]

James I think that you are right, but smart business know that when a market drops, the best thing to do is to take your losses and start turning over your inventory at the new levels.

 

The ratio of businessmen to smart businessmen is shockingly low.

[World Colonial]

Given the economy, I'd expect business to be slow or somewhat slow. And this is especially true for the dealers who have common coins or "widgets" to sell which is the lopsided majority of them. As a collector, I see no urgency at all to buy this type of material.

 

I expect this material to be in abundant supply for the indefinite future due to increased selling by financially stressed collectors and "investors", especially if the economy remains weak as I expect it to.

[JIM F.]

As a buyer, I find the current market offers a great opportunity to pick up some great coins at depressed prices -- which I have been doing. The point I was trying to make is that the true "deals" seem to be by buying via auctions where the sellers are obviously motivated -- the coin show venue appears to be obsolete as long as dealers think they can charge over-valued prices.

[Mozin]

James- I think you are right on with that. I see many commems for sale that will not sell anywhere near the asking price.

 

I agree.

[World Colonial]

Those motivated sellers you are describing, I expect to see a lot more of them and many of them will likely be even more motivated.

 

One of the open question in terms of coin market pricing trends is how much pent up supply there is due to economic conditions. The answer of course is, we do not really know.

 

I have always assumed that the dedicated coin collector is either somewhat or a lot better off than the non-collector. The reason for this is that accumulating any kind of decent collection or any collection of value requires financial resources and discipline which the typical person obviously lacks. I say obviously because if this was not the case, then the national personal savings rate would not be so pathetically low in the last 15-20 years including the NEGATIVE rates a few years ago.

 

If this assumption is correct, then with unemployment increasing and the real estate market in the dumps, I would expect that there will be more motivated sellers though the recent improvement in the stock market (however temporary I believe it to be) will offset that somewhat.

 

But even if this true, we cannot know exactly who owns what and the relation between the financial condition of specific collectors and the coins they own. This creates unpredictability in terms of what coins and how many of a particular issue will show up for sale.

 

In any event, whatever bargains exist now, I expect more of them later and this applies to most or all coins.

[michael]

Low turnout. I was interested in several coins, but the dealers would not offer prices that were anything close to even considering. Most dealers shut down 1 hour or more before the show ended. The one coin I was most interested in, I was unable to purchase because the dealer left the show early.

 

I think the best way to buy coins is through Ebay or Heritage. These shows aren't working for a collector with cash who knows the market.

 

About the only transactions I observed were people selling to dealers, not the other way around.

 

Just my observations. I came with a few thousand dollars in cash to spend and left without a purchase.

 

 

 

they are not as of yet motivated sellers and i have seen that more often than not dealers will not sell a coin for the current real market which might be under or at their cost ever

 

maybe they have enough assets where they just will not do this and can still sustain their livelyhood/business

 

unfortunate to go to a show and have money to spend and find a great coin but overpriced to the current market

 

 

[EMG]

Low turnout. I was interested in several coins, but the dealers would not offer prices that were anything close to even considering. Most dealers shut down 1 hour or more before the show ended. The one coin I was most interested in, I was unable to purchase because the dealer left the show early.

 

I think the best way to buy coins is through Ebay or Heritage. These shows aren't working for a collector with cash who knows the market.

 

About the only transactions I observed were people selling to dealers, not the other way around.

 

Just my observations. I came with a few thousand dollars in cash to spend and left without a purchase.

 

 

 

Hello NGC board! I have been across the street for sometime & thought I would check you guys out. I was set up at L.B. & agree that there was a ridiculous low turnout! I myself stayed till closing and made sales till the end!

I have heard more & more from collectors stating that they are getting better deals from internet/auction houses.

[Just Bob]

Hello NGC board! I have been across the street for sometime & thought I would check you guys out.

 

Welcome to our corner of the world!

[Schatzy]

Hello NGC board! I have been across the street for sometime & thought I would check you guys out.

 

Welcome to our corner of the world!

 

Welcome

[James_OldeTowne]

I have heard more & more from collectors stating that they are getting better deals from internet/auction houses.

Welcome to our friendly little neighborhood!

 

In my experience, the best deals come off the bourse floor, and by a pretty good margin. I almost never get a "great deal" from bidding in an auction! But scouring the bourse always pays dividends for me.

[World Colonial]

I have found plenty of good deals on both eBay and at public auction on RAW coins for the series I collect. Less on eBay now than before but several in the last year at public auction. However, since I only collect world coins, I do not know if this is equally true of US coins. However, I would be really surprised if pricing on at least some US coins is not weaker now than it was 12 to 18 months ago, given the economy and the availability of most of them.

[HiHoAudio]

I bid on a few 18th century Swiss coins at the Heritage LB auction and did get one real bargain.

 

But an ANACS AU50 1740 1/4 Thaler from Basel went for almost double compared to an NGC MS62 1/4 Thaler from Basel that I bought raw from a Swiss dealer last year. I was pretty happy with the grade NGC assigned, though I was hoping for a MS63.

 

You have to really seek out bargains these days. They rarely jump out and scream "Hey, look at me!"

 

I collect US coins too but haven't found a bargain in years, except a 1915 Panama Pacific $2-1/2 gold commemorative that I took a chance on last year on eBay. Ex-jewelry and slightly polished, but it certified as genuine/AU details and I only paid $400. I believe it's worth about $1500 as-is.

 

Maybe there are still bargains to be had...

[JIM F.]

Ebay is interesting because often an item is poorly marketed or the seller doesn't really know what they have. For instance I bought a "buy-it-now" 1929 $20 National Currency STAR note for $35 because the seller did not know that a star note is worth hundreds of dollars. One has to be lucky in finding these -- I bought it within 2 minutes of it being posted for sale on Ebay.