How can one price early US Federal coinage?

[EZ_E]

Winstonware just asked me this question. It's a tough one but here's my best answer.

 

That can be a tough question because the market price is what someone is willing to pay. Since problem free early issues are so scarce then price guides don't really mean much. You look at the Coin World or Numismatic News price guides for the early stuff and they are laughable. If only I could find the coins for that price! But those guides assume non-slabbed, cleaned, run of the mill coins.

 

I paid $1600 for my AG3 PCGS 1796 dime. I was lucky to find/get it. Price guides are probably half that. My last major purchase was for my 1795 half. The seller wanted $3000 even though numismedia price is $1500. Yeah, that was a steep price but the coin was high end and nice eye-appeal. Since I got two major upgrades the month before from PCGS, basically I only paid $1000 for the coin due to the profits from the upgrades. Tough price but the seller wouldn't budge.

 

I scored bigtime with my PO1 Chain Cent. I got it at a Stacks auction a year ago for $1800. It was in a third world slab but I liked the coin. Conder101 pointed out the diagnostics that it was the AMERI variety which I didn't know and it was undesignated as such. PCGS graded it and noted it as the S-1. This coin in the PCGS slab and being the most sought after variety (which is the first official coin minted by the US Mint) would easily sell for $2500, probably a bit more. Why? Because not only are early types, especially early copper, on fire but they are truly scarce coins, especially ones that would grade. Now with PCGS offering the genuine slab service, the practice of slabbing problem early coins is at an end. With the genuine service, all liability vanishes. So why chance net grading a problem coin? This will make the early coins that much more scarce and that much more valuable.

 

So how does one value early coins? Sure, look at auction histories for an idea but the main factor is how much a collector is willing to go for that coin. I saw that an AG3 1793 half cent sold for $2500 a few months ago at Heritage. That is way over what the price guides say it should be. But, I'd gladly pay that for that half cent. Not only is this the last copper type coin that I need but it was a beautiful, original coin. Supply and demand fuels the market and the demand is huge!

 

Any further thoughts on this subject?

[thebeav]

Yes, I guess that no two coins are the same when it comes to this stuff. Each will trade on it's own merits.

It has been this way for a number of years, as I'm sure you know. Always difficult to buy. You seem to have a good handle on it though.....

 

Paul

[PerryHall]

Why not just use the grey sheets or the price guide in Coin World?

[World Colonial]

No further thoughts on these coins specifically but I do on one other item. I have noticed in my limited informal searches (primarily on Heritage) that these coins come mostly with problems, but at least these and even problem free specimens are available occasionally though the prices definitely reflect strong demand.

 

Also some of them I would not consider to be that scarce or they are only selectively scarce depending upon someone's definition of scarcity: Here are four that I believe can be applied to any coin or series:

 

Is the coin rare, scarce or common in an absolute sense?

 

Most coins by this standard are common though many collectors do not think of many coins as meeting this criteria. For example, I would place many US "key" date issues - most of them probably actually - in the common category. Examples include the 1909-S VDB cent, 1877 cent, all Morgan and Peace dollars (except proofs and even these are not particularly scarce either) and the 1932-D and 1932-S Washington quarter. For federal coinage, I would say the same about the Drapped Bust half and drapped Bust dollar. Examples of coins that are actually rare would include the 1794 Dollar, 1796 half cent, 1802 half dime and 1878-S half dollar.

 

Is the coin rare, scarce or common in the quality that the typical collector would find acceptable?

 

This appears to be the definition of scarcity that most collectors on this board appear to use. And in that sense, I would agree that many or possibly most of the coins you discuss are scarce.

 

But even here, this can vary widely. For example, if any of you ever have some time on your hands to kill, go try to find Guatemala pillar minors. First, there are almost none of them available period. And of those that are, most are either holed or damaged in some other way. And even of those that are not, most of the remaining few have probably been cleaned. There are almost zero coins available that would grade even proportionate to the few that still exist. One of mine is a 1763 NGC VG-8 1/2R. By the standards of this series, it is much better than average though most other collectors would find it unappealing. (It is the lowest graded coin in my collection.)

 

Is the coin rare, scarce or common in a particular grade or as die variety or with a particluar eye appeal?

 

I do not think I need to say much about the scarcity of these coins because in actuality, the scarcity exists only in a very narrow sense and most of these coins are not even widely collected.

 

Is the scarcity of the coin substantially equivalent to its actual or apparent availability?

 

Now this is where I believe there is a substantial difference between coins such as early US Federal and others such as those that I collect. I cannot prove it but my suspicion is that some of my coins actually exist in larger numbers than their apparent availability but simply are never or are only infrequently sold. And the reason for this is because of the low prices and incomplete price data. This has been true in my experience of the South Africa Union coins and a collector of Mexico Pillar 8R I met at a coin show implied that this had been true of these coins before.

 

But it is also equally true that even expensive or relatively expensive coins have widely differing availability. Here are a couple of examples:

 

The Drapped Bust Small Eagle Reverse half dollar is reported to have about 300 known specimens which I believe is slightly more than both major varieties of the 1796 half cent. Yet, I have seen almost no sales records of the latter. On the other hand, anyone who has the money should be able to find the half dollar as it regularly appears (sometimes in multiple) in major auctions.

 

The same is true of some world coins. The 1839 UK proof set has a mintage of 300 (400 for the 5 pound gold) and the 1935 New Zealand proof set has a mintage of 364. Neither of these are hard to find.

 

Alternatively, the 1931 South Africa 2 Shillings has a mintage of 383 business strikes and 62 proofs. In 11 years of collecting this series, I have NEVER seen even ONE business strike in any grade. This is the opposite of what is typically or at least occasionally found with US coins, such as half dollars from the 1880's which I believe are more available in higher than lower grades.

[James_OldeTowne]

Why not just use the grey sheets or the price guide in Coin World?

Great idea! Just add the two prices together and start from there !

[michael]

extremely hard to price or explain but show me a piece of early pre 1800 coinage and i will tell you what it is worth

 

yes the s-1 chain ameri. is one hell of a rare sexy coin

[TomB]

This is a terrific thread and I am surprised it has gotten so little action given the topic and the board members we have on this site.

 

My take on this subject would be that a good estimation as to the value of problem-free, accurately graded early Federal type with good eye appeal would be to study previous auction results, obtain printed information regarding sales in your specialty (ie: AMBPR), look at the websites of dealers whom you believe are knowledgeable and that you can trust and to engage in dialogue with other collectors of the same caliber as the previously mentioned dealers. Of course, publications like the Greysheet and the like can be consulted, too, but keep in mind that these are merely guides and not sources for the material.

 

I attempt to keep in mind why it is that I would like to obtain the coin, how long I have looked for such a piece, what condition these coins are typically found in, what grade range they are typically found in and of course how likely I am to be comfortable at that purchase level to have those funds tied into a single coin or niche. Over the years I have had to become extraordinarily patient to obtain the majority of my early Federal pieces. I also have come to terms with the knowledge that I will never finish the complete US type set because it cannot realistically be done with my income level at the quality that I like to pursue. This is okay with me and I am having a great time looking for and buying the rare piece that suits me well.

[EZ_E]

What a great post, Tom! I was just thinking of your 1796 quarter and your Gobrecht dollar before I even saw this post. Coins like that were scarce when you found them, now, they would be near impossible to find, I think.

[BillJones]

For early silver and gold coins, one classic rule of thumb was to take the Gray Sheet price and move it one grade ahead of the actual grade of the coin. In other words, if the coin is a really nice AU-50 or 55, you would expect to pay somewhere in MS-60 range. Now days, the prices go beyond those levels in most cases.

 

Early copper has been very pricey for many years because of the Early American Coppers club. Those collectors take large numbers of pieces out of numismatic circulation because they collect by die variety and in many cases by die state. Therefore the supply of nice early copper that is not corroded or ugly is very small, and the prices usually run WAY, WAY over the Gray Sheet levels and often even beyond the “Coin Prices” (formerly Trends) levels.

 

[WinstonWare]

Thanks everyone for your insight!