Upcoming FUN is not an indication of what 2009 will be like for the Coin Market

[MikeKing]

Granted, I only examined Bust Halves and Half Cents, but if THAT is any indication, it's what a poor selection consumers have to choose from. I can't seriously believe that FUN (at least for these groups of coins) will be any indication of what 2009 holds in store for us.

 

Any opinions?

 

 

[MarkFeld]

Any opinions?

Yes, there is no way to know what type of indicator FUN will be for this year, until next year has arrived. And having examined a large portion of the sale, I thought that the selection was quite good.

[BillJones]

The usual pattern is once a coin market as gone bearish, the good stuff gets taken off the market. If the selection is poor in the current auctions, it could be a sign that collectors are hold on to their good stuff in hopes of doing better later.

 

This contradicts what the numismatic press has been telling us about how the coin market is running contrary to the rest of the economy. Of course leaving bidders with weak selections leads to weak auctions since most people won't pay strong prices for second rate material. And that leads to self-fulfilling prophases.

 

I hope the FUN show is decent. I’d like to raise some cash from my remaining inventory, and I do have a few nice items for sale.

[truthteller]

The usual pattern is once a coin market as gone bearish, the good stuff gets taken off the market. If the selection is poor in the current auctions, it could be a sign that collectors are hold on to their good stuff in hopes of doing better later.

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Absolutely correct. I manage to visit coin shops on a regular basis throughout the coast of CA. Most brick and mortar coin stores have seen a dramatic falloff of customers and clients either buying or selling nicer material. Most of the business is bullion or scrap related, which cannot pay overhead for most of them. In addition, the dealers are not buying anything unless they have a ready and willing client. They are not stocking inventory, not even at severely discounted levels. The prevailing belief is that even at a discount, they cannot move the material, unless it is purchased close to melt, and makes it difficult for coin collectors to accept when selling their coins.

 

I received an unusual call the other day from a large auction house looking for superb material for upcoming auctions at a "minimum" value level. That means they want better than average coins. That hasn't happened in years.

 

Expect to see discounted trading at the shows for another 6 months, then, the market should collapse and most trading of lower level value coins will come to an abrupt halt.

 

In general, the lag time from top to bottom or from large dealer to collector is about 4 months.

 

 

TRUTH

[Houston Investor]

I think the bearish market can be like a bad poker hand. I simply fold and let them walk if I am not getting decent retail or able to buy at my price. Then, all I am out at the most is the table fee and expenses. I know from experience sooner or later the right deal will happen. Furthermore, I have other income sources besides coins.

 

I use bear markets as a good time to increase inventory directing retail sales and any new investment money into lower replacement costs....picking up bargains bought right as I go along.

 

Its much easier to buy coins than sell them, especially in bear markets. The thing I like about bear markets is whatever I am able to retail, I can come back and replace it with equivalent material much cheaper than what I had in it. During the 1990-94 bear markets I honed this skill and increased inventory considerably. Sometimes good retail buyers can be scarcer than the coins themselves .

 

As long as you have inventory to fill up your cases be careful on spending. You will always run into collectors who won't pay above CDN Bid / Ask and won't sell at or below Bid. These individuals are a non-entity as far as I am concerned.- once it becomes evident they don't do business at a level that will float my boat, I quickly send them on their way. The greysheet is a wholesale dealer to dealer transaction recap not a retail priceguide. I have never seen a business (like the coin business) where there are clientele who expect to buy at or lower than your replacement cost. 10c on the dollar does not cut it in the coin business.