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Numismatic Navel Gazing 2009: let's hear your predictions!

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Okay, this thread is intended to be a fun expression of where you think our hobby is headed for 2009. Don't be afraid to post, we aren't going to bump this thread on Jan 1, 2010 to see who the dunces are :grin:


Based on your perceptions of our coin "market", the economy, your collecting habits, and any gut instincts, what do you think this next year holds for us as coin collectors?


My "shoot-from-the-hip" projections:


1. US coin submissions will fall the first half of the year, but will see some action as the Mint churns out the new UHR Saints and it's new round of bullion.


2. The US Mint will slow production on making nearly everything under the sun.


3. The US coin market will be stagnant until at least August as a whole, but there will be some occasional flashes of brillance as long held primo coins come out of private vaults for auctioning.


4. rare/scarce World coins will continue to be strong, and will appreciate even will many US rare/world coins are stagnant or slumping.


5. PCGS will be sold off by CLCT, to a group of US and foreign investors interested in keeping the brand alive.



c'mon, let's hear them!



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TV advertising will be increased for the Barack Obama commemorative coins until the third week of January 2009. They will decrease in frequency until mid July and will finally cease to air by November.


The 2009 Lincoln cent will be hoarded by the millions, the low-ball basement grading services will eventually certify 1,158 specimens as MS-70


Chinese reproduction coins hit an all time high on e-bay and finally get their own category.


When PCGS is sold by CLCT, Mark Feld and James Garcia will re-instated. However, Laura Sperber will remain on the banned list.

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Here's just a few .


Mark Feld wins the lottery, buys PCGS and fires Don willis then creates his own smiley face sticker for toned coins .


The 2009 proof eagle is a small run as not enough blanks are available to the mint.


Gold tracks higher while the price of silver is still stagnant due to poor industrial demand .


And on a personal note , manage to complete my lincoln proof set and my peace dollars :-)


Cheers martin



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what do you think this next year holds for us as coin collectors?



1. gold will hit $1100.00+ sometime in 2009


2. continuning deflation in 2009 eventually leading to massive inflation at a later date


3. higher taxes federal, state, local in 2009


4. scarce to rare early coins and colonials, pre civil war coins continue to be in demand in 2009


4a. gem proof morgan seated, trade dollars, gem proof pre 1915 proof gold will continue to be in DEMAND in 2009 but the proof pre 1915 gold and the proof trade seated and morgan dollars have to be totally original and also never dipped or dipped blast white and have to have abopve average eye appeal and be orgginal and of course being their age the proof silver dollars will need to be beautiful toning and again original to boot either from a cased set or tissue storage none of this hazy cloudy dipped out or secodnary toned crapola


5. a particular slabbing service pwill continue to be racist/elitist, CONDECENDING in their opinion about the general collector overall, discriminatory, quota based and with continuing special priviledges to particular submitters to their detriminte in 2009


6. the recession will be severe, deep and short lived AND will pull out of it by the end of 2009


7. by the end of 2009 the new uhr saints will be priced like what regular gold american eagles are bringing on the secondary market



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When PCGS is sold by CLCT, Mark Feld and James Garcia will re-instated. However, Laura Sperber will remain on the banned list.




The market will definitely slow down and see most series drop up to 20% in price except for early type. Moderns are dead. 70 graded coins will bring very little of a premium unless the pops are extremely low. Exceptional coins will bring good money, regardless of the grade. CAC will gain even greater acceptance as tolerance for mediocre slabbed coins fall. Gold will hit between $1200 and $1500 per oz. Silver @ $22/oz. And W.J. meets angry buffalo in field and gets neutered. :o

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I'm not sure if moderns will die or not. I think they will eventually, but I'm not sure if it'll be this year. I think it's a big bubble created by the registry sets.


I don't have any specific predictions for 2009. I think the economy overall will play a reasonably large role for the general collector but not specialty nor reasonably well-off collectors (as in those who generally buy into the MS/PF-70 registries). It will also affect gold and silver (and other metal) prices, but so will the value of the dollar in relation to world currencies. I'm not enough of an economist to really predict how it will go, though.

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