Mod(ern)s are not dead.

[physics-fan3.14]

Chabsentia; Huh?

 

No offense, but sometimes your meandering writing style, with it's lack of conciseness is difficult to read, let alone follow the mental processes to the point in your treatise where you leave off in middle of the message. Then, you post a second time, pick up and continue the meandering process to some discussion point that you never reached in the first post. It is kind of like you are talking out-loud to yourself. Sometimes the vagueness makes me miss your point, often in the first post, sometimes in the second post. Sorry, but your convoluted sentences, mental meanderings and lack of precision in writing is difficult to read and understand. It is like following a U.S. Forest Service Trail map through National Forest wilderness. I really am not sure where you're going sometimes. Sorry, I don't intend to be critical, I'm just confounded by your writing style.

 

Hey, stream of consciousness worked for Ernest Hemingway - they regard him as a genius (although I can't stand him ).

[CHABSENTIA]

Chabsentia; Huh?

 

No offense, but sometimes your meandering writing style, with it's lack of conciseness is difficult to read, let alone follow the mental processes to the point in your treatise where you leave off in middle of the message. Then, you post a second time, pick up and continue the meandering process to some discussion point that you never reached in the first post. It is kind of like you are talking out-loud to yourself. Sometimes the vagueness makes me miss your point, often in the first post, sometimes in the second post. Sorry, but your convoluted sentences, mental meanderings and lack of precision in writing is difficult to read and understand. It is like following a U.S. Forest Service Trail map through National Forest wilderness. I really am not sure where you're going sometimes. Sorry, I don't intend to be critical, I'm just confounded by your writing style.

 

No offense taken,however, I believe that it is not jst Demand that determines the Price and although lengthy have listed several reasons because I don;t think there is just one reason. I have merely listed the lower Mintages and compared them with the prices of the 2001 Buffalo which in may cases 8-10 times the mintage and still commands a premium.I think it relates to both the availabilty of the lower mintages and the hence the lack of a trend to establish a price.

 

World Colonial also mentions the type and knowledge of Collectors in the series which is also a factor. I was looking through EBay today and reading the feedbacks. This particular seller had a 12 month feedback of 66 and the latest month at four but apparently losts of business. One negative feedback by a buyer concerned over $300.00 for a 1921 High Relief Peace Dollar in a GEC holder with MS67. The Buyer was compalining that " he sent it to PCGS an AU58 and that the seller overgraded his coins"

 

Cant get much simpler and cover all the bases without "meandering"

[World Colonial]

The pricing of these two commemoratives or any other coins is a combination of supply and demand with the considerations discussed in this post as the components of demand. If you or anyone else find the financial evaluation framework I included in an earlier post on this thread with my "9 Factors" useful, the only real difference between these coins is Factor #3, the popularity of the issue and factor #4, supply and potential supply. In this instance, there really isn't a question of "potential supply" in absolute terms because approximately 100% of the original mintage still exists. The available supply at any given time is a partial unknown, but is probably in actuality primarily a function of the current market price and indirectly, demand. If the demand is weak or relatively weak, the supply will be elastic and what is available will increase with any price increase.

 

Contrast this with the 1995-W proof ASE. Though I consider it the most overpriced coin in the world given its absolute supply, the available supply must be relatively inelastic despite these (absurd) prices. Otherwise, it would not be as expensive as it is. (I do not follow this coin closely but I know that there are many set collectors of ASE and possibly "investors" for this specific coin.)

 

What it comes down to with these commemoratives is that the popularity of the 2001 Buffalo Dollar versus the Olympic coins overwhelms the relatively large difference in mintage figures.

 

Why is this? I believe it goes back to the popularity of the Buffalo Nickel even though presumably many others own this coin that do not collect Buffalo Nickels. The design is a classic and people want to own it.

 

For the Olympic coins, what is it that makes or would make collectors want to own these coins other than casual collecting and set collectors? We can never know for sure but the answer potentially is that there is little to none. The number of Olympic fans who are also coin collectors and who also view these coins a "must have" would not appear to be one of them. If this correct, then the financial potential of these coins is not that promising, regardless of how "limited" the mintages appear to be.

[CHABSENTIA]

The pricing of these two commemoratives or any other coins is a combination of supply and demand with the considerations discussed in this post as the components of demand. If you or anyone else find the financial evaluation framework I included in an earlier post on this thread with my "9 Factors" useful, the only real difference between these coins is Factor #3, the popularity of the issue and factor #4, supply and potential supply. In this instance, there really isn't a question of "potential supply" in absolute terms because approximately 100% of the original mintage still exists. The available supply at any given time is a partial unknown, but is probably in actuality primarily a function of the current market price and indirectly, demand. If the demand is weak or relatively weak, the supply will be elastic and what is available will increase with any price increase.

 

Contrast this with the 1995-W proof ASE. Though I consider it the most overpriced coin in the world given its absolute supply, the available supply must be relatively inelastic despite these (absurd) prices. Otherwise, it would not be as expensive as it is. (I do not follow this coin closely but I know that there are many set collectors of ASE and possibly "investors" for this specific coin.)

 

We are almost there. So that I won't be excused of "meandering" I am going to give three examples and hopefully solve it.

 

1. 2002 Salt Lake Olympic. Mintage: 40,000 Numismedia MS69 value $47.00

2. 1997 Jackie Robinson Mintage 38,000 Numismedia MS69 value $120.00

3. 2001 Buffalo Mintage 227,000 Numismedia MS69 value $218.00

 

 

I think that the 2002 Salt Lake is available infrequently due to its mintage and when it does become available it is looked at in relation to its past value/s and is bid accordingly. Also it represents an event and people are either less interested or nor even aware of it .

 

The 1997 Jackie Robinson while appearing infrequently due to its mintage not only represents an actual person but there is an actual portrait of the individual which makes it more appealing. There is then the factor that Jackie Robinson represents certain milestones and then there is the factor of a demand for no other reason then certain Ethnic groups.

 

 

The 2001 Buffalo now comes into the picture and has the portrait of the American Indian on front and the Bison on the back so that there are two important Portraits on the coin. Also there is the Buffalo nickel of which many people are aware.Not only is the coin available because of its larger Mintage but there is a little more Symbolism than the Jackie Robinson as well as more recognition and a wider audience and thus a wider demand as well as a track record for the cost.

 

 

Condor also hits on a part of the Factor. While his statistics are based on the number of Collectors as mentioned by the U.S. Mint and the 40,000 originally mentioned by Victor which may or may not be true I think that this relates to the fact that there are not that many people that collect Modern Commemoratives and if they do then they collect only certain ones which appeal to them for some reason such as Symbolism or what the individual event means to them. There are also what appears to be small numbers of people who would not want certain ones due t what they depict. Look at the individual who would not purchase a Boy Scout Commenorative if offered. What htis means is that there is a possible pent up demand that will exist when the series becomes more popular and there is even less of them available.

 

 

What it comes down to with these commemoratives is that the popularity of the 2001 Buffalo Dollar versus the Olympic coins overwhelms the relatively large difference in mintage figures.

 

Why is this? I believe it goes back to the popularity of the Buffalo Nickel even though presumably many others own this coin that do not collect Buffalo Nickels. The design is a classic and people want to own it.

 

For the Olympic coins, what is it that makes or would make collectors want to own these coins other than casual collecting and set collectors? We can never know for sure but the answer potentially is that there is little to none. The number of Olympic fans who are also coin collectors and who also view these coins a "must have" would not appear to be one of them. If this correct, then the financial potential of these coins is not that promising, regardless of how "limited" the mintages appear to be.

[EZ_E]

I started my modern commem collection as a rookie and just continued on from there even though I branched out to concentrate on my type set registry.

 

But there are extremely advanced collectors like Bill who not only has early types to drool for, but he also has complete sets of modern commems and proof sets. Yet, I think this is more the exception than the rule.

 

A complete set of modern commemorative dollars will cost c. $7,000. The halves would probably cost c. $1000 (but this is more of a rough estimate than the price on the dollars). Take into account that the set continues to grow indefinitely. For a new collector to jump in today, they would have lots of ground to make up which is probably very discouraging for most. Hence, just the size of the collection alone is enough to discourage most from seeking to obtain a complete set. Therefore, the collector base is kept fairly low.

 

I agree that the reason some issues are so expensive is because they have been absorbed into non-collector's hands. The Police commem is scarce because they have been distributed to many officers who'll hang onto a neat coin. The same is true with the Marine Corp commem. although it is surprising how few ex-marines actually know of the coins. I'm a lifetime member of the VFW. Those members I know have never heard of the coin.

 

I have no idea why the Crispus Attucks coin goes for a premium but it all boils down to supply and demand whether real or artificial.

 

I have 25 of the Marine Corp commems both BU and proof. I imagine that there's probably a 1000 hoarders like me. If and when these are sold and placed back on the market (as with any other mult modern mini-hoards), prices will fall unless there had been an increase in demand.

[cpm9ball]

I have 25 of the Marine Corp commems both BU and proof. I imagine that there's probably a 1000 hoarders like me. If and when these are released (as with any other mult modern mini-hoards), prices will fall unless there had been an increase in demand.

 

I've got more than my share of them, too, but I will probably hang on to them until the USMC 500th Anniversary.

 

Chris

[World Colonial]

There is one other attribute which has been alluded to but only discussed briefly. Cladking mentioned it in one of his posts and that is the knowledge barrier. The knowledge barrier for modern commemoratives is really low and I believe this is important for the new collector or non-collector who is a larger force in modern commemoratives.

 

Versus most other coins, it really takes very little knowledge to collect them "efficiently" because the novice is not or at least is at less of a disadvantage versus the seasoned collector and specialist. I've never heard of any fakes and though there is the risk of paying more than the market price or that the market price will fall, the prices are better established because they come up for sale far more often than many or most other coins. Because almost all of them are high grade and essentially in their original state, the risk of buying a problem or overgraded coin is lower as well. This combination probably serves to increase the confidence of the buyer who is less knowledgeable because most people do not want to make an outlay of thousands or even hundreds of dollars that is a complete leap in the dark.

 

I do not know how other collectors exactly make their collecting decisions except that it is individual and personal, but the first thing discouraging to me about trying to complete a set of modern commemoratives would be paying (what I consider to be) such ridiculous prices for material that is so common.

 

I recently found a website that is a newsletter for Mexican coins and it specializes in the 19th century "Cap & Ray" silver Real and "Hand On Book" gold Escudo issues. (I have a handful of these in mint state and like the series.) In one article, they make a point which I think is a very astute observation.

 

The author of this article mentions one US coin collector who decided to collect these coins though I cannot remember the exact specifics. Probably it was the 8 Real because that is the only denomination that is widely collected and it is probably the easiest to complete from the standpoint of scarcity depending upon the definition of a complete collection. (Some are very rare or nearly impossible to find but less so than the others.) As soon as they found out how difficult it was to find the coins, they gave up and went back to collecting US coins. Why? Because the lack of ability to find coins he wanted to buy did not provide enough "action". Apparently, the idea of collecting something he could never complete or even find coins regularly did discourage this collector.

 

This type of discouragement will never occur for the collector of modern commemoratives, except possibly in the context of trying to accumulate the #1 or a top registry set. They can find all of them though I admit that the economic cost you mentioned poses a dilemna for many. But at least a complete collection is within reach for any collector of moderate means.

 

 

 

 

[World Colonial]

I have a few duplicates (of my series) but not many. A few I have bought for financial reasons as long as the price was good. The others I bought cheap but invariably end up selling them to use the money to buy other coins in my sets. What I always wonder is, don't the "hoarders" have other coins they would rather own? I wanted to keep mine but did not have enough money for both.

[EZ_E]

I went against my m.o. when I bought so many because I was convinced that they would be $100 coins. The marines is the only branch of the Armed Services where you're a marine for life, hence increased demand, forever out of circulation.

 

Upon their saleout, their prices were $80 and more. Now they've dropped to barely over issue price. So, I'm faced with the dilemma of selling them basically at cost or to hang onto them. My instincts say to hold on to them.

[CHABSENTIA]

There is one other attribute which has been alluded to but only discussed briefly. Cladking mentioned it in one of his posts and that is the knowledge barrier. The knowledge barrier for modern commemoratives is really low and I believe this is important for the new collector or non-collector who is a larger force in modern commemoratives.

 

Versus most other coins, it really takes very little knowledge to collect them "efficiently" because the novice is not or at least is at less of a disadvantage versus the seasoned collector and specialist. I've never heard of any fakes and though there is the risk of paying more than the market price or that the market price will fall, the prices are better established because they come up for sale far more often than many or most other coins. Because almost all of them are high grade and essentially in their original state, the risk of buying a problem or overgraded coin is lower as well. This combination probably serves to increase the confidence of the buyer who is less knowledgeable because most people do not want to make an outlay of thousands or even hundreds of dollars that is a complete leap in the dark.

 

This is true. The knowledge barrier is low. I believe that this also ties in with the personal interest theme for whatever reason because soem issues receive more attention than others.Since the attention is mainly given during the year of issue then even the people who do not actually collect the series will probably buy it that year and forget about it. Hence the theme and symbolism for that year.

 

 

I have another reason which also ties into some of the above. I like most of the 1 oz Silver coins. I have all of the American Eagles in both Proof and Miint State..I also have all the Morgans that I wish to collect. The Morgans were starting to be a hassle for me mainly because of the ones that have been improperly cleaned etc that you don't notice until they are in hand.

 

 

I started buying the Commemoratives and concentrating on the ones that were thinly traded because you never know when the opportunity will come again. I bought Raw coins when possible never going over a specific price and the slabbed ones when I could get them for at least 30-40% below the Numismedia price..

 

The interest just doesn't seem to be there for many of the years. I don't know how much of this is a lack of interest and how much of it is a lack of available funds?

 

The two low mintages that I do not have are the Law Enforcement and the Community Service in MS or PF. Both are low mintages and I suspect that when they were issued that people that were either in soem form of this type of employment or for reasons that meant something to them purchased them in the year of issue and along the way when they became available. I think this is the biggest reason because they are also the two issues where the proof also commands a premium above the others except for the 2001 Buffalo.

 

 

The number of coins to complete a set are large but if Interest picks up in the series then it should be noticeable. The State Quarters are for all practical reasons finished. It is poosible that the American Eagles only need to be kept up to date for the most part. The Peace Dollars and Morgans are either damaged or improperly cleaned etc in many cases and aren't readily available in great condition without a premium. So where do peopl eeventually go especially if they want to hedge their bets with an ounce of Silver which is less expensive than an ounce of Gold or Platinum?

 

I do not know how other collectors exactly make their collecting decisions except that it is individual and personal, but the first thing discouraging to me about trying to complete a set of modern commemoratives would be paying (what I consider to be) such ridiculous prices for material that is so common.

 

I recently found a website that is a newsletter for Mexican coins and it specializes in the 19th century "Cap & Ray" silver Real and "Hand On Book" gold Escudo issues. (I have a handful of these in mint state and like the series.) In one article, they make a point which I think is a very astute observation.

 

The author of this article mentions one US coin collector who decided to collect these coins though I cannot remember the exact specifics. Probably it was the 8 Real because that is the only denomination that is widely collected and it is probably the easiest to complete from the standpoint of scarcity depending upon the definition of a complete collection. (Some are very rare or nearly impossible to find but less so than the others.) As soon as they found out how difficult it was to find the coins, they gave up and went back to collecting US coins. Why? Because the lack of ability to find coins he wanted to buy did not provide enough "action". Apparently, the idea of collecting something he could never complete or even find coins regularly did discourage this collector.

 

This type of discouragement will never occur for the collector of modern commemoratives, except possibly in the context of trying to accumulate the #1 or a top registry set. They can find all of them though I admit that the economic cost you mentioned poses a dilemna for many. But at least a complete collection is within reach for any collector of moderate means.

 

 

 

[World Colonial]

It is judgmental and a matter of preference but if you bought these coins strictly for financial reasons, you might want to consider getting rid of them and placing the money elsewhere to better use, wherever that may be.

 

You mention that you are even on these but there is a psychological tendency in all of us to not take a loss. Doing so even when it is logical is difficult and takes mental discipline. I've bought my share of coins like everyone else that turned out to be a bad financial buy. This almost always happened because the coin would not grade (mainly from eBay). I still have some of them (all but a few really cheap) but I always get rid of them now to cut my losses if I consider it a mistake. (A few I have now I will get rid of as soon as I get a better gradeable coin.)

[World Colonial]

To answer your last question on whether it is a lack of interest or lack of funds, my answer is that I believe it can be either or both.

 

My perception is that most new collectors are younger .(I was 10 when I first started but 33 when I really picked it up for good.) If so, then lack of funds would be a good explanation. With non-collectors, they may or may not have the funds but in either case are unlikely to use those that they have for this purpose. Maybe they would rather play golf or drive a more expensive car.

 

Those who are longer term collectors may also not have the funds but even if they do, I believe they are less likely to prioritize their resources in this area. I attribute this to the economic scarcity factor I previously described as there are other coins they would rather own and they cannot own all of them.

 

On the aspiration scale, most or all of these coins are ranked lower than US classics (for most US collectors), generics and generic conditional rarities (for investors) and selective world/ancient coins (myself included).

 

Over a longer period of time, I think some of them will establish a reputation (so to speak). Those that are (subjectively) perceived to have the most historical merit and a "reasonable" mintage should do best. Those without one or with a large mintage not so well.

 

I do not think badly of collectors who want these coins (though it is a mystery to me why they do not prefer "better" material) but I have to admit to a certain level of snobishness towards the coins themselves as I do not particularly hold them in high esteem.

 

The first reason is because I consider them common and most of them exist in high grade. The second reason is because the majority of the issues are for a purpose which I consider of dubious merit or "not important". But actually, this last reason is not totally fair because they are probably more classic commemoratives issued for dubious events than moderns. Its just that because classic commemoratives already existed when I started collecting that I think of them differently.

[CHABSENTIA]

To answer your last question on whether it is a lack of interest or lack of funds, my answer is that I believe it can be either or both.

 

My perception is that most new collectors are younger .(I was 10 when I first started but 33 when I really picked it up for good.) If so, then lack of funds would be a good explanation. With non-collectors, they may or may not have the funds but in either case are unlikely to use those that they have for this purpose. Maybe they would rather play golf or drive a more expensive car.

 

Those who are longer term collectors may also not have the funds but even if they do, I believe they are less likely to prioritize their resources in this area. I attribute this to the economic scarcity factor I previously described as there are other coins they would rather own and they cannot own all of them.

 

On the aspiration scale, most or all of these coins are ranked lower than US classics (for most US collectors), generics and generic conditional rarities (for investors) and selective world/ancient coins (myself included).

 

Over a longer period of time, I think some of them will establish a reputation (so to speak). Those that are (subjectively) perceived to have the most historical merit and a "reasonable" mintage should do best. Those without one or with a large mintage not so well.

 

I do not think badly of collectors who want these coins (though it is a mystery to me why they do not prefer "better" material) but I have to admit to a certain level of snobishness towards the coins themselves as I do not particularly hold them in high esteem.

 

The first reason is because I consider them common and most of them exist in high grade. The second reason is because the majority of the issues are for a purpose which I consider of dubious merit or "not important". But actually, this last reason is not totally fair because they are probably more classic commemoratives issued for dubious events than moderns. Its just that because classic commemoratives already existed when I started collecting that I think of them differently.

 

The "younger " part is definitely a factor. If I was in my thirties then I would probably look at it differently.I am not in it for a big Financial gain although I use Financial considerations when I buy them. Since most of the ones that have been left in the OGP are going to be a MS69 then it makes no sense to not buy a particular coin ina holder if you get a good price because you have to look at the price of the raw coin and the $12.50 grading cost.If Numismedia values a 2001 Buffalo at $218.00 in MS69 and I want one then why would I pay $225.00 in raw form when I could get it for $185.00 already holdered. I have submitted about twenty for grading and 16 came back as MS or PF 69 and three came back as MS70 and one as PF70. Most in the holders I have purchased for about 30-40% less than Numismedia value.

 

 

I got the 2002 Salt Lake with 40,000 mintage for less than $30.00. It cost $12.50 for grading so lets say it cost about $40.00.It came back as a MS70 which Numismedia has as $100.00 This is arbitrary to me and is only used as a guideline.

 

I like the fact that it is 1 oz of Silver. Liked the Morgans but got tired of the improperly cleaned coins and the damaged ones and the hassle of anticipating their arrival and the disappointment.

 

In this case even if it loses 50% of its value and goes to $50.00 then I am whole .I am also protected by the price of Silver to some extent if I purchase wisely.Meanwhile I enjoy collecting the series without the hassle. I may or may not sell some or all of them in the Future. Financial need for me is not a problem at the moment so there are no presssure issues. I have all of the Proof Mint Sets from 1968 and all the Mint sets from 1970 in OGP and have hardly looked at them. I have both Kennedys and Roosevelts in circulated and uncirculated condition as well as Mercurys in circulated which I have barely looked out so I have plenty to look at. I spent a lot of time on the Morgans and don't want to start a new "type" set for which I would have to research all over again.

 

 

When I die there is nobody in my Family that care or know anything about the Coins I have now. Just doesn't make sense for me to do anything else at htis stage of the game.

 

 

[EZ_E]

I like the fact that it is 1 oz of Silver.

 

It is actually significantly less than 1 ounce.

[Oldtrader3]

I have vacillated on modern commemoratives since 1993. I had purchased all the half dollar/dollar business strike issues between 1982 and 1993. I had put them in a Capital plastic holders and sold many of them in 1994. A couple of years later, I started buying Mint boxed $5 gold when the price of gold was around $370-$390/oz. Collector interest was low on these coins in the mid-1990's and I bought several $5 coins which I liked, for about $110/$120 each in the mint box, just because they were awfully cheap. I really did not have much collector interest in these gold commemoratives. They were just attractive, cheap gold coins.

 

I wish that I had focused more on these $5 coins now because now, after most of mine were graded PF69UCAM, they recently became $300.+ coins. I paid a little more for the Washington $5 (which I like and still have) and Civil War $5 (which I doubled my money on). Then last year, I decided to have some of my remaining halfs and dollars graded, plus purchasing a few more issues that I wanted. I am ambivalent about these dollar and gold coins now because of their higher price relative to bullion.

 

The point of all this is that I have about (21) silver and (6) gold modern, commemoratives that do not fit my normal collecting interests. I will not finish the set and don't know what to do with them.

[World Colonial]

Going back to the themes of commemoratives, I found another example yesterday that might interest you. (Actually, I knew about the coin but had not read this webpage.)

 

This coin is not actually a commemorative,as it was issued in proof and as a ciculation issue, but it is similar to many commemoratives. It is the South Africa Mandela 2000 copper-nickel 5 Rand. The business strike mintage is approximately 6.2 million and the proof (P/L?) is 40,000 (?).

 

Though I consider the coin absurdly overpriced, this has proved to be a wildly popular coin (apparently) and as I will explain shortly, also received a "push" from a prominent South Africa coin broker. This shows how having a coin associated with a legend (which Mandela undeniably is) can make all the difference for a coin's market price and finacial performance..

 

According to this website, they sold an NGC PR-69 CAM for R200,000 which is about $29.000 at today's exchange rates. Though the NGC census is 2 for 69-CAM and 1 for 69-UCAM, with a graded population of 2447, it is common though unlike US coins, a surprising number of these are in mid-proof grades. I'm not sure if that is due to the quality of the mint process or just that those who bought them reduced their grade. Lower grade specimens seem sell for a few hundred dollars at the current time.

 

Most likely this broker is the source of many of these graded specimens,. On their website, they claim that they recommended that their customers buy 100 of them at the issue price of R735 each (probably their price and not the Mint's) which would be about $100 today. My one experience with them is that they sell coins at inflated prices but in any event, this would have worked out (as of now) for those who bought from them.

[EZ_E]

To each his own.

 

[World Colonial]

Depending upon when you bought it, you should have a winner in that coin.

[BillJones]

Which was my point. It is the Design of the 2001 Buffalo and not the relative scarcity because the Mint State Buffalo has a mintage of 201,000 while the 2002 Olympic is 40,000 so the 2001 Buffalo has a mintage of 5 times as much.

 

A few pages back people were asking why the Buffalo dollar was so expensive despite the fact that its mintage is so much higher than some other issues. There are two reasons for this. First, as people have said collectors like the design and its ties to the very popular Buffalo nickel.

 

The other reason was the issuance of the Buffalo 100% bullion gold coin. Before the gold buffalo came along, the silver buffalo had enjoyed the usual hot streak that a popular commemorative coin often has. Then the coin became “old news,” and the prices for it (Unc. and Proof) began to drift downward. A few months before the gold piece was issued I got interested in collecting all of the modern commemorative coins in Proof. At a show where I was a dealer I spotted a dealer who had a Proof Buffalo, and he was more than happy to sell it to me for $10 under Gray Sheet “bid.” I got the coin for $110 if memory serves, and he would have sold me a two piece Unc. and Proof set at a similar discount if I wanted to buy it. Then along came the gold coin, and the bid on the Proof silver Buffalo dollar jumped to over $200. Now things are settling down again and the coin is bid at $180 on the latest sheets.

 

I would not want to be in a “long” position (aside from the one in my collection) in Buffalo dollars. Given the mintage, there are just too many of them, and it would not surprise me to see the bid fall to the $100 neighborhood again.

 

[EZ_E]

I just sold a proof Buffalo on ebay and got a disappointing $150. I figured that since they were hot again because of the gold release that I'd get at least $200 for it.

 

A newbie asked if now was a good time to buy the silver Buffalo commems a few months ago when they were getting $300 a pop. I suggested that he wait for the excitement to simmer down and get one for $150 or less. As Bill well knows, anytime the spotlight is on a coin then prices will escalate to whatever the market will bear. Once the lights are cut, however, a sharp correction will soon follow.

[CHABSENTIA]

Going back to the themes of commemoratives, I found another example yesterday that might interest you. (Actually, I knew about the coin but had not read this webpage.)

 

This coin is not actually a commemorative,as it was issued in proof and as a ciculation issue, but it is similar to many commemoratives. It is the South Africa Mandela 2000 copper-nickel 5 Rand. The business strike mintage is approximately 6.2 million and the proof (P/L?) is 40,000 (?).

 

Though I consider the coin absurdly overpriced, this has proved to be a wildly popular coin (apparently) and as I will explain shortly, also received a "push" from a prominent South Africa coin broker. This shows how having a coin associated with a legend (which Mandela undeniably is) can make all the difference for a coin's market price and finacial performance..

 

According to this website, they sold an NGC PR-69 CAM for R200,000 which is about $29.000 at today's exchange rates. Though the NGC census is 2 for 69-CAM and 1 for 69-UCAM, with a graded population of 2447, it is common though unlike US coins, a surprising number of these are in mid-proof grades. I'm not sure if that is due to the quality of the mint process or just that those who bought them reduced their grade. Lower grade specimens seem sell for a few hundred dollars at the current time.

 

Most likely this broker is the source of many of these graded specimens,. On their website, they claim that they recommended that their customers buy 100 of them at the issue price of R735 each (probably their price and not the Mint's) which would be about $100 today. My one experience with them is that they sell coins at inflated prices but in any event, this would have worked out (as of now) for those who bought from them.

 

Interesting. Thanks for the info. I was not collecting coins yet but I was stationed in Bermuda about 1973/1974 . Afriend of mine talked me into buying a first time Mintage of the Queen if England if I remember correctly,The coin was a limited issue and it turned out to be very popular and apparently the demand was much more than the supply. When I was notified of its delivery and went to apy for it the dealer told me that if I wanted to sell it that he would give me double the price for it and I took it.Can't remember if it was all Silver or all Gold. Don't know where it went from there.

[CHABSENTIA]

Which was my point. It is the Design of the 2001 Buffalo and not the relative scarcity because the Mint State Buffalo has a mintage of 201,000 while the 2002 Olympic is 40,000 so the 2001 Buffalo has a mintage of 5 times as much.

 

A few pages back people were asking why the Buffalo dollar was so expensive despite the fact that its mintage is so much higher than some other issues. There are two reasons for this. First, as people have said collectors like the design and its ties to the very popular Buffalo nickel.

 

The other reason was the issuance of the Buffalo 100% bullion gold coin. Before the gold buffalo came along, the silver buffalo had enjoyed the usual hot streak that a popular commemorative coin often has. Then the coin became old news, and the prices for it (Unc. and Proof) began to drift downward. A few months before the gold piece was issued I got interested in collecting all of the modern commemorative coins in Proof. At a show where I was a dealer I spotted a dealer who had a Proof Buffalo, and he was more than happy to sell it to me for $10 under Gray Sheet bid. I got the coin for $110 if memory serves, and he would have sold me a two piece Unc. and Proof set at a similar discount if I wanted to buy it. Then along came the gold coin, and the bid on the Proof silver Buffalo dollar jumped to over $200. Now things are settling down again and the coin is bid at $180 on the latest sheets.

 

I would not want to be in a long position (aside from the one in my collection) in Buffalo dollars. Given the mintage, there are just too many of them, and it would not surprise me to see the bid fall to the $100 neighborhood again.

 

Hadn't thought about the Gold Buffalo but I can see that the scenario is valid.I feel that the price should come down on the 2001 Buffalo but haven;t seen it lately.A mintage of 227,000 for it just seems too high for the prices realized.

 

I do not like the design as much but I did buy the 2002 Olympic with the mintage of 40,000 when it became available last month as this low mintages are just not available as often as the Buffalo.

 

I sent it in to be grade and will be receiving it back from NGC this week and it is a MS70.Numismedia has it at $100 in MS70 but the 2001 Buffalo in MS69 at about twice that $100.00 in MS70.

 

I know from talking to them before that Numismedia bases their prices in part on the trends of recent Sales.While I also prefer the design of the Buffalo and its appearance to the 2002 Salt Lake I just feel that the difference in value is not only due to a demand because of appearance and theme but also due to some degree to a lack of availabilty of the 2002 and thus not enough sales to establish a trend. It would just seem that with a mintage of over 200,000 for both the Proof and Mint State of the 2001 Buffalo will have to decrease in price because people that but it are eventually going to decrease in numbers.

[EZ_E]

The coin that I'm waiting on a large price bump is the uncirculated Salt Lake City 2002 gold $5 commem with a mintage just a tad over 10K. I can see it being an $800 coin.

[CHABSENTIA]

The coin that I'm waiting on a large price bump is the uncirculated Salt Lake City 2002 gold $5 commem with a mintage just a tad over 10K. I can see it being an $800 coin.

 

Havent noticed it. Good chance you are correct.