Mod(ern)s are not dead.

[cladking]

And they are actually coins rather than tangents, too.

 

There's still every possibility that the US can avoid a recession but it's interesting that many people are now shopping at the cheaper stores and buying the less expensive products. Money is being pumped into the economy at a stupendous rate to keep it working so there's little doubt that more inflation is coming.

 

Those writing off moderns would do well to remember that it was during the great depression that coins first became a mass market. Whether we have a recession or not there are likely to be more people looking for more things that are less expensive. Meantime the prices of everything will be going up.

 

This may be the perfect storm developing.

[Amazon-migration]

Ssshhhh! I need a few more years to finish hoarding them!

[WoodenJefferson]

~it was during the great depression that coins first became a mass market~

 

True, but dimes, quarters and half dollars were 90% silver then and it really did mean something to hoard coins...hoard them now and all you have is shrinking buying power.

 

Collectors share a rather unique niche in the scheme of things...it runs in cycles that are pretty predictable but there are no steep indicators like the economy in general.

 

Some indicators are like "flash floods" or Tsunamis, coin collectors flow like a lazy river...when it rains up stream, the water rises down stream and it's easy sailing. But on the other hand when the water gets low, most collectors just pull over to the bank and wait until the water rises again.

 

Like Otis Redding...Sittin' On the Dock of the Bay.

 

[RareSov]

Some moderns are

 

Some are magnificent investments, since they are either beautiful, low mintage, mark historic events etc.. sometimes you even get all these factors in one coin !! those are the moderns to buy a lot of.

[Dcoin]

Todays mods are tomorrow's classics.

[cpm9ball]

Some moderns are

 

Some are magnificent investments, since they are either beautiful, low mintage, mark historic events etc.. sometimes you even get all these factors in one coin !! those are the moderns to buy a lot of.

 

Like the 2001 American Bison? U.S. Marine Corps? Lewis & Clark? 20th Anniversary SAE's? 2003 Lincoln 1c PCGS MS70RD?

 

Chris

[cladking]

~it was during the great depression that coins first became a mass market~

 

True, but dimes, quarters and half dollars were 90% silver then and it really did mean something to hoard coins...hoard them now and all you have is shrinking buying power.

 

Collectors share a rather unique niche in the scheme of things...it runs in cycles that are pretty predictable but there are no steep indicators like the economy in general.

 

Some indicators are like "flash floods" or Tsunamis, coin collectors flow like a lazy river...when it rains up stream, the water rises down stream and it's easy sailing. But on the other hand when the water gets low, most collectors just pull over to the bank and wait until the water rises again.

 

Like Otis Redding...Sittin' On the Dock of the Bay.

 

 

Only the current crop of old time coin collectors in the US are overly concerned with precious metal. This isn't to say that some metals aren't precious, merely that in other places and at other times people saved coins even thought they were made of base metal.

 

During the depression people collected because they had time on their hands and some hoped to make some money on the coins. Most were saving base metal cents and nickels because they didn't have enough money to save silver and gold.

[cpm9ball]

My Dad's parents were Czech immigrants. They came over here by means of "Company" passage. Once through Ellis Island, grandpa had to work in the coal mines in SW PA. They lived in "Company" housing, he was paid in "Company" scrip, and they bought the bare necessities in the "Company" store. My grandmother supplemented their income by bootlegging, and that went into their savings account at the bank. When the Depression hit, they lost all of their savings and my grandfather committed suicide.

 

Chris

[Jeffrey Cardona]

Todays mods are tomorrow's classics.

 

So true!! Every coin started its life as a modern!!

[World Colonial]

In the context of coins as an investment, I believe that it is undeniable that the matallic content of the coin has a significant beariing on the value of the coin, even apart from its "melt" value. Looking at the prices of a wide range of coins, this is the best explanation for why many coins cost as much as they do. Collectors seem to have a natural preference for gold over silver coins, silver coins over base metal and large over smaller coins.

 

My guess (and that is all that it is) is that no, moderns are not "dead" since future collectors will undoubtedly collect what they know best just as they do today. But at todays prices, the most expensive moderns (which I presume are almost exclusively conditional rarities) fetch what I would describe as ridiculous prices and are likely to result in financial losses to those who buy them at today's levels. This is especially true since most collectors would not even be able to tell the difference between a (for example) a PR-69 and PR-70 or two very high grade MS coins.

 

Collectors would probably do better to buy high grade MS modern coins right below the conditional rarities because they are so much cheaper, do not look that much different and are probably more likely to be the beneficiary of any future increases in demand.

 

Here are some criteria that I use to evaluate the financial prospects of any coin or series. (It has nothing to do with my opinion on the merits of these or any other coins as collectibles.) The text in bold is my current opinion for moderns as investments though this will differ somewhat for conditional rarities versus the rest of them. These are also mostly independent of my economic outlook, though obviously an economic expansion or contraction will have a current impact on coin prices generally.

 

Factor #1: Origin: Positive (US coins)

Factor #2: Size and metallic composition: Neutral to Negative

Factor #3: Popularity of the coin series: Positive (less so for dimes and dollars)

Factor #4: Current And Potential Supply: Negative

Factor #5: The Economic Scarcity Factor: Negative

Factor #6: The Substitution Factor: Negative

Factor #7: The Impact of Demographics: Neutral to Positive

Factor #8: Future Exchange Value of the US Dollar: Negative

Factor #9: The US Mint and the US Congress: Positive (for now)

 

I also segment the coin market into the four following categories:

 

US classics; significant investor participation

US generic and generic conditional rarities: Dominant investor segment

US moderns: Limited investor segment

World coins: Limited investor segment; limited to some countries and series

[CHABSENTIA]

I can look on E Bay and see that the Modern Commemorative such as the 2001 Buffalo which has a mintage of over 200,000 in Mint State and we are talking MS69 goes for a great deal more in price than say the 2002 Salt Lake Olympic in MS69 which has a mintage of about 40,000.

 

 

Some of these lower mintage coins aren't even available..Does the lower mintage 2002 costs less in MS69 because the low Mintage coins are not available due to their low Mintage while people keep churning the 2001 Buffalo because of its availabilty. I can't think of any Moderen Commemoratives at the moment in MS that is more or even at 200,000.

 

 

Is the higher price that people are willing to pay for the 2001 Buffalo Commemorative due to the Design? They both have the same amount of Silver. The 2001 Buffalo in Proof commands a higher price than other Moderns with less mintage in PF69.

 

I think that the 2006 Ben Franklin Founding Father in PF69 is a better looking coin than the 2001 Buffalo.

[cpm9ball]

I can look on E Bay and see that the Modern Commemorative such as the 2001 Buffalo which has a mintage of over 200,000 in Mint State and we are talking MS69 goes for a great deal more in price than say the 2002 Salt Lake Olympic in MS69 which has a mintage of about 40,000.

 

 

Some of these lower mintage coins aren't even available..Does the lower mintage 2002 costs less in MS69 because the low Mintage coins are not available due to their low Mintage while people keep churning the 2001 Buffalo because of its availabilty. I can't think of any Moderen Commemoratives at the moment in MS that is more or even at 200,000.

 

 

Is the higher price that people are willing to pay for the 2001 Buffalo Commemorative due to the Design? They both have the same amount of Silver. The 2001 Buffalo in Proof commands a higher price than other Moderns with less mintage in PF69.

 

I think that the 2006 Ben Franklin Founding Father in PF69 is a better looking coin than the 2001 Buffalo.

 

I'm guessing that the popularity of the 2001 Bison is due to the appeal of the original design of the nickel. It has helped the commem to attract interest from multiple generations of collectors. You may find the 2006 Franklin to be more attractive, but apparently, quite a few collectors feel otherwise.

 

Chris

[World Colonial]

I'm not even a collector of any of these coins, whether commemoratives or otherwise, but I definitely believe that the 2001 Buffalo Dollar deserves a premium due to the design. And I cannot even remember why it was issued but it does not matter to me.

 

Whether a collector finds it more or less attractive is completely subjective, as it is with any art form. None of these are scarce except in relation to circulating coinage. The mintage on this 2002 Olympic commemorative is similar to the 1995-W proof SAE. And we can see the price difference between those two coins.

 

If anyone is looking for any of these coins and cannot find them, they must not be looking hard enough. There are coins with far lower mintages that are regularly available for sale in public auctions. These include the 1839 UK Queen Victoria "Young Head" and the 1935 New Zealand proofs which have a mintage of 300 and 364 respectively. If these are available, then so are any modern US commemoratives

[WoodenJefferson]

Many Commemorative Half Dollars entered circulation during the Great Depression, because it was more important to have a loaf of bread, milk or a few potatoes than a silver collector coin sitting in the sock drawer.

[cladking]

US classics; significant investor participation

US generic and generic conditional rarities: Dominant investor segment

US moderns: Limited investor segment

World coins: Limited investor segment; limited to some countries and series

 

I generally agree.

 

While there is some limited speculative activity in

moderns and some classical areas free of much such

activity, most is found in classics and high grades.

 

This is extremely good for moderns because the coins

are available to collectors rather than tied up in portfo-

lios. This means they are bought for lower prices and

these prices are not dependent on the whims of out-

siders who don't understand coins. Investors have the

disconcerting tendency to run into and out of investments

as a herd leaving collectors with large losses on collec-

tions.

 

While most current collectors prefer precious metals there

is NOTHING whatsoever intrinsic in the value of any collec-

table. An 1804 dollar hardly derives its value from the $15

worth of silver it contains. A dollar's worth of canvas and

oil can sell for far more than the 1804 dollar as well. Does

anyone ask for a discount on a '55 DDO cent because it

has only a couple cents worth of metal in it. Most collec-

tors now are old enough that they'll likely give up the hobby

in the next 15 years anyway.

 

The average age of people buying expensive coins in fifteen

years will be far lower than it is today. What they deem to

be of value, in aggregate, will be the primary determinant

of price.

[CHABSENTIA]

I'm not even a collector of any of these coins, whether commemoratives or otherwise, but I definitely believe that the 2001 Buffalo Dollar deserves a premium due to the design. And I cannot even remember why it was issued but it does not matter to me.

 

Whether a collector finds it more or less attractive is completely subjective, as it is with any art form. None of these are scarce except in relation to circulating coinage. The mintage on this 2002 Olympic commemorative is similar to the 1995-W proof SAE. And we can see the price difference between those two coins.

 

If anyone is looking for any of these coins and cannot find them, they must not be looking hard enough. There are coins with far lower mintages that are regularly available for sale in public auctions. These include the 1839 UK Queen Victoria "Young Head" and the 1935 New Zealand proofs which have a mintage of 300 and 364 respectively. If these are available, then so are any modern US

 

commemoratives

 

Which was my point. It is the Design of the 2001 Buffalo and not the relative scarcity because the Mint State Buffalo has a mintage of 201,000 while the 2002 Olympic is 40,000 so the 2001 Buffalo has a mintage of 5 times as much.

 

 

While it is possible that the 2002 can be found in other "Public" auctions I restricted my comment to EBay. I can look right now and find the 2001 in raw form, graded ,or as a part of a set with a raw proof.Unless one appeared today there is no 2002 Uncirculated Mint State in any form.Sometimes the design is more important to many than other factors.. I happen to think that the Ben Franklin Proof is better designed and looks better than the Proof Buffalo but that would not stop me from purchasing either of them.

[World Colonial]

You are correct that there is no reason why anyone should prefer gold or silver over base metals but the fact is that they do and there is no reason that I can think of why this should change. Certainly I do not consider the fact that all current coins are base metal to be one of them, even if that is what the new population of collectors will have grown up with. We may not know what is going to happen, but I'll place my odds with 6000 years of history during which people have displayed a preference for gold and silver over base metals.

 

Also, while your comment about the 1804 Dollar is valid, it is not representative of most coins. As you said, it is more like a masters painting than a coin to the investor. (And if it were made of copper, it would almost certainly sell for less. That is invariably true of comporable patterns.) But in the majority of the investor segment at least, the metal component is a relatively significant factor in many coins even if it is only a fraction of the value and that is true for large versus small coins also. There appears to be no other explanation for their current price levels. Or if there is, I would like to know what it is. I absolutely guarantee you that generic liberty gold $2 1/2 to $20 would not sell for anywhere near the prices they do if they were made of silver or base metals.

 

I was surfing the Heritage website this morning and for the first time I pulled up the Heritage "Hall of Fame". It presumably contains their top prices realized. Every single one of them were US coins, were gold or silver, the majority were conditional rarities and a few were also historical pieces such as the 1792 half disme. There are many base metal coins as scarce as these items but they sell for much less.

 

While the limited investor and speculator participation in moderns is good for collectors, this limits their financial appreciation. And I expect that this will be true for almost all of them for a long time.

[EZ_E]

Good point, WC. Even with the moneyed EAC collectors, top copper is far below the gold and silver record prices. To my limited knowledge, the most paid for a copper US coin was around $440,000. ( I may be completely wrong on this figure)

 

I guess the exception would be the 1913 Liberty nickel which is made of....nickel and copper. However, in my opinion, it shouldn't even be counted as a coin.

[World Colonial]

The 1913 Nickel happens to be one exception but I would attribute this to marketing and promotion (such as by B Max Mehl) many years ago which has made this particular coin "famous" and both the 1804 Dollar and 1933 Double Eagle have some level of "celebrity" price premium. (The same applies in other collectible fields such as stamps with the "Upside Down Jenny".) Most other rarities exist in relative obscurity.

 

I believe that the record price for a copper coin is somewhat over $500,000 for a 1796 "No Pole" to cap Half Cent. This happens to be a coin for which I have great respect even though I have no interest in the series (and cannot afford them even if I did). The 1930 Australia Penny is another copper which might compete with it, as I believe it has sold for $440,000 before, especially with the recent depreciation of the USD.

 

Compare this 1796 HC to what is approximately a comporably scarce coin such as the 1796-1797 half dollar. From the standpoint of availability, I see the half dollar regularly regardless of how many of them exist for both. I have seen almost no 1796 HC (either variety). My conclusion is that yes, the 1796-1797 half dollar benefits from demand as a type coin, but the metal content also matters though I cannot say how much.

[EZ_E]

I always love your posts, bud! Always informative. (thumbs u

[cladking]

You are correct that there is

no reason why anyone should prefer gold or silver

over base metals but the fact is that they do and

there is no reason that I can think of why this should

change. Certainly I do not consider the fact that all

current coins are base metal to be one of them, even

may not know what is going to happen, but I'll place

my odds with 6000 years of history during which peo-

ple have displayed a preference for gold and silver over

base metals.

 

 

Yes. Collectors today do prefer silver and gold US coins.

 

But these are the old line established collectors in this coun-

try. There are many more million new collectors in this coun-

try who will be the old timers in twenty years who do not have

so strong a preference. There are many millions of new col-

lectors in Europe and the emer(ed)ing economies who are not

so adamant that coins are silver and gold. The simple fact is

that coins have been made for thousands of years in base met-

als and it's only in the last half century that they've been ignor-

ed and not saved.

 

It will change because the new generation of collectors don't re-

member a time that silver was in circulation. They don't remem-

ber the anguish as the steps were taken to discourage collectors

and the silver (old) coins slowly disappeared from circulation.

 

They do not have the mind set that clad coinage is garbage be-

cause it contains no silver. People don't expect small change to

be made of silver and gold any longer.

 

There is a great deal of rarity from since 1965 and the reason

most of it sells so cheaply is simply because there are so few

collectors. Ten years ago there weren't a hundred eagle reverse

quarter collectors in the country and now there are thousands. As

a group they are learning a great deal more all the time. They are

adding coins to their collections all the time. Perhaps more impor-

tantly is that this group is growing rapidly.

 

All the trends continue to favor huge growth in the modern coins.

No, no one should invest in these and this isn't the point. Inves-

tors usually find a way to miss the mark anyway and they cause

distortions that hurt collectors. The point is simply that this is a

growing area and will almost certainly remain a growing area for dec-

ades. This is a worldwide phenomenon and will have a tremendous

impact across the hobby but the greatest impact has been, is, and

will continue to be in moderns.

 

Moderns are not dead and even a correction wouldn't kill them.

 

[cladking]

People are not going to suddenly start preferring copper

or aluminum to silver or gold. But we're not talking about

metal we're talking about coins.

 

Until recent years people saved coins even if they were al-

uminum but when silver and gold stopped appearing most

coins stopped getting saved.

 

You can see this all over the world. Look at the New Zealand

shilling. It's a great coin and the old silver issues were saved

in large numbers despite their low mintages. When they were

replaced with high mintage cu/ ni people didn't save them.

 

Today there is a large demand for the low mintage silver and

the high mintage cu/ ni gets little demand. Check the prices:

The cu/ ni sells for more!!! Try finding a nice 1957 Greek 1 D.

I'll even tell you one that's still cheap but you can't find it: The

old Chinese 1 and 5 c aluminum from the '50's. What do you

think these will sell for when a billion people start looking for

them? They're just aluminum, right? Just like the '50E East

German 10p is "just" aluminum.

 

And don't forget there isn't even one tenth of one percent as much

demand for these as there is for the old silver US coins. What

happens as the collector demographic changes to people who

don't believe these are "just aluminum"?

 

You'd best hold on to something because it's going to be one

wild ride.

[EZ_E]

Cladking, there is a lot of truth in what you say. You may very well be right that in 20 years, the next generation's taste will prefer moderns.

 

But if my experience is shared by most maturing collectors then I'd still say, "nay".

 

When I re-entered the hobby in 2002, I took the shotgun approach and bought lots of large silver coins both US and foreign (I still have them, too, and really enjoy them). I bought all the mint offerings and assembled or bought lots of complete modern sets. Very few of those earlier purchases would turn a profit even though silver was $4.00/oz then.

 

I then started to gravitate towards type coins. After a stiff learning curve, I then started with proof 19th century type coins graded by NGC or PCGS.I then branched out and bought MS or nice circulated type coins when I couldn't afford a proof. I'm still working towards a complete set of types. These coins are keepers for me and will someday help fuel my retirement.

 

Granted, there are some beautiful modern coins. The Panda and ASE are gorgeous! I have the complete set of modern commem dollars that I find makes one heck of a collection. I also like the state quarters which I have in a Dansco with all 4 coins per issue. Beauty will always attract collectors.

 

Yet, in general, as a US coin collector matures in the hobby, the will eventually gravitate to the earlier Federal coinage and will sell of lots of their modern accumulations.

[World Colonial]

I'm not claining that moderns of base metal have no future as collectibles or that none of them will make the owner money, but I am claiming that silver and gold coins will continue to be preferred because there is a proven historical preference for these coins and no evidence that you have provided to the contrary. Making a claim to the contrary is the equivalent to stating that people prefer paper currency and electronic debits over precious metals. There is no evidence of that either. People have "chosen" to use modern money because there is no free market in money because of the government monopoly. (If people had a choice, there would be usage of both though we cannot know how much.)

 

But I will agree with you on one thing if this is what you are saying. The scarcity in modern coins (as with others) exists far more outside the United States than in it.

 

In the prior posts I have seen on modern US coinage on this site, I have not seen any indication that modern US circulating coinage is scarce except for conditional rarities or die varities. Whether these coins will become more valuable (either a little or a lot) is complete speculation because as a niche market, it would only take a small amount of money to move them (as with many or all other coin specialties) substantially. Many modern conditional rarities are already so expensive that they could be worth much less years from now and still be relatively overpriced versus far more scarce issues.

 

But when it comes to modern US coins generally, where is the evidence to indicate that they are scarce and what is the definition of scarcity which is associated with this claim?

 

There have been many posts on this site where someone has made statements about a particular (mainly US) issue being scarce. Almost invariably, I am able to go to Heritage and find either a large number of specimens that came up for sale in six or 12 month period. And these are for coins that have much lower original mintages.

 

For most coins, what seems to happen is that when prices are really low, the supply for sale is artificially suppressed. The reason being that the incentive is low to part with them and knowledgeable collectors are not willing to sell them for "low" prices.

 

One of my specialties is South Africa Union coinage. Now that prices have risen substantially since I started collecting them, the availability has increased a little. But this increase simply means that instead of never seeing a coin I might have seen it once or twice (at least for a coin that was worth buying).

 

But the primary difference between coins like South Africa Union and the US is that the mintages were fairly low or absolutely low to begin with, the collector base was very low and, just as with other examples you gave, many were melted around 1965 both because of the silver content and because of decimalization.

 

I agree with you that many modern US coins have not been saved in pristine condition but that is where the Economic Scarcity and Substitution Factors I included in my prior post comes in. Given the huge premiums that exist today with these issues, are most collectors or prospective collectors going to pay these premiums or are they likely to settle for a coin that is a few points lower and looks not quite as nice for 1% or 10% of the price. Its a complete guess but my answer is that the answer for most collectors is the cheaper coin.

 

And on the subject of demographics, I believe that the long term outlook for US coins generally are not as good as most collectors believe them to be. If this is correct, this will offset the positive trend which I agree exists for modern US issues.

 

The basis for this statement is the changing composition of the population. Here are what I believe to be the relevant questions:

 

What is the profile of the typical collector today? My answer is someone like me: Baby Boom or Generation-X white male. (I am right in the middle of these groups.)

 

Where is the population growth going to come from in the future. My answer is, not in this demographic. It will be mostly or entirely minority and immigrant.

 

How many of these people are going to become coin collectors at all? My answer is I do not know but the current trend appears to be undeniably "proportionately less than those who collect coins today, possibly substantially less." If this seems far fetched, ask this question. How many of these groups has anyone seen at coin shows or at their local club meetings? I'm not a coin club member but the answer at coin shows I have attended is "essentially zero".

 

How many of these new collectors are going to collect US coins exlusively or primarily? My answer is "A lot less than those who do so today."

 

If they do not collect US coins, what are they going to collect instead? My answer is "Those coins for which they have an affinity such as those which are connected with their cultural heritage." What I see as the trend toward the Balkanization of this country has an excellent chance of manifesting itself in our hobby. So as examples, these new collectors will collect Latin or Chinese coins firstly and US coins secondly if at all.

 

In the short space which is provided here, I cannot possibly address everything and (of course) much of what I include is speculation. But in conclusion I will say that modern US coins will increase in popularity at the expense of other US series but I do not expect them to overtake them financially for the most part.

[cladking]

Cladking, there is a lot of truth in what you say. You may very well be right that in 20 years, the next generation's taste will prefer moderns.

 

But if my experience is shared by most maturing collectors then I'd still say, "nay".

 

When I re-entered the hobby in 2002, I took the shotgun approach and bought lots of large silver coins both US and foreign (I still have them, too, and really enjoy them). I bought all the mint offerings and assembled or bought lots of complete modern sets. Very few of those earlier purchases would turn a profit even though silver was $4.00/oz then.

 

I then started to gravitate towards type coins. After a stiff learning curve, I then started with proof 19th century type coins graded by NGC or PCGS.I then branched out and bought MS or nice circulated type coins when I couldn't afford a proof. I'm still working towards a complete set of types. These coins are keepers for me and will someday help fuel my retirement.

 

Granted, there are some beautiful modern coins. The Panda and ASE are gorgeous! I have the complete set of modern commem dollars that I find makes one heck of a collection. I also like the state quarters which I have in a Dansco with all 4 coins per issue. Beauty will always attract collectors.

 

Yet, in general, as a US coin collector matures in the hobby, the will eventually gravitate to the earlier Federal coinage and will sell of lots of their modern accumulations.

 

My contention isn't that collectors in the future will

prefer either moderns or base metal coins. My con-

tention is that many moderns made even in large num-

bers are very scarce and will be collected. These sell

for pennies or a few dollars now but when there are peo-

ple clamouring for them they will cost a great deal more.

Some moderns made in huge numbers already sell for

thousands of dollars because people didn't save them.

There are many more such rare coins that still list for a

dollar or two.

 

Old coins are never going to go out of style but the new

coins are coming into style. This will stand the pricing

of many moderns on its ear.

[CHABSENTIA]

Cladking, there is a lot of truth in what you say. You may very well be right that in 20 years, the next generation's taste will prefer moderns.

 

But if my experience is shared by most maturing collectors then I'd still say, "nay".

 

When I re-entered the hobby in 2002, I took the shotgun approach and bought lots of large silver coins both US and foreign (I still have them, too, and really enjoy them). I bought all the mint offerings and assembled or bought lots of complete modern sets. Very few of those earlier purchases would turn a profit even though silver was $4.00/oz then.

 

I then started to gravitate towards type coins. After a stiff learning curve, I then started with proof 19th century type coins graded by NGC or PCGS.I then branched out and bought MS or nice circulated type coins when I couldn't afford a proof. I'm still working towards a complete set of types. These coins are keepers for me and will someday help fuel my retirement.

 

Granted, there are some beautiful modern coins. The Panda and ASE are gorgeous! I have the complete set of modern commem dollars that I find makes one heck of a collection. I also like the state quarters which I have in a Dansco with all 4 coins per issue. Beauty will always attract collectors.

 

Yet, in general, as a US coin collector matures in the hobby, the will eventually gravitate to the earlier Federal coinage and will sell of lots of their modern accumulations.

 

My contention isn't that collectors in the future will

prefer either moderns or base metal coins. My con-

tention is that many moderns made even in large num-

bers are very scarce and will be collected. These sell

for pennies or a few dollars now but when there are peo-

ple clamouring for them they will cost a great deal more.

Some moderns made in huge numbers already sell for

thousands of dollars because people didn't save them.

There are many more such rare coins that still list for a

dollar or two.

 

Old coins are never going to go out of style but the new

coins are coming into style. This will stand the pricing

of many moderns on its ear.

 

What you say is true. In my previuos example between the 2001 Buffalo Commemorative which has a mintage of over 200,000 and is plentiful and the 2002 Olympic which has 40,000 I checked three auction sites and did find one 2002 Olympic in raw form and not one certified.

 

 

The problem is that the price asked was more than double over what it sold for a month ago in that form. In the case of available supply then the less available then the more will be charged. While it might be possible to wait a few more months and find others for sale there is still going to be a premium.

[19Lyds]

My 2 cents is that coins were not collected for their intrinsic PM value during the great depression but were collected as time warranted with the hopes of scoring big!

 

Remember, the PM value at the time was not even close to the value stamped on the coin and had little bearing on its collectability. Collecting coins for the precious metal content began with the issuance of Clad coinage. Folks felt their coinage was not worth the metal it was made with.

 

Coin collecting is all about collecting coins, regardless of metallic content, in the best possible condition to represent what the coin was like at issuance.

 

If modern business strike issue's are NOT collected, then its only a question of time before those coins become very scarce and difficult to find in ANY condition. I could go out on a limb and state that dollar for dollar, modern business strike coins will deliver better return on investment in the long run than any precious metal commemmorative since the business strike coin will have a much lower survival rate if current trends toward not collecting them continue. I'm speaking of cents, nickels, dimes, quarters and possibly Presidential dollars. Less likely on the quartes given the popularity of the State Quarters program and the propensity for non-collectors to stick a roll away here and there. Probably the same for the presidential coins as well but the bottom line is if future collectors need the coins, for whatever reason, and they just are not available, then expect high prices to soon follow.

 

 

[Oldtrader3]

I feel that I have to weigh in to this discussion because I have collected both moderns and classic designed coins for over 45 years. This does not make me an expert collector necessarily, but I probably am an expert observer of other collector's evolution having observed so many collector acquaintances, young and old, as they evolve in the hobby. Also, I must admit for honesty's sake that my own experience with modern coins has generally not been very profitable.

 

I still collect both classic and modern coins. However, I don't pay more than about $250. for most moderns now because of past "Top Pop" boondoggles with hoards of these exact coins leaching out of the woodwork over time. There is too large an existing population of almost all these issues for me to consider them any sort of a prudent investment. However, this is only my opinion. Some few moderns, those with populations under 25,000 issued, may prove good investments in the future, despite most of these coins being already highly priced.

 

Most collectors that I know, those whom I have watched evolve in the hobby, move through collecting moderns and evolve into collecting classic coins as they earn more disposable income. A classic coin's intrinsic value is linked not only to the metal but to the historical legacy of these coins and their true, measured and proven scarcity. Seasoned collectors are looking for history and scarcity and this collecting model will not change much in the future.

 

As more Americans begin collecting coins and as the collector base moves through older collectors like me, then through "Boomer" collectors and on to younger, maturing collectors in the future. IMHO this model for seasoned collectors will not change much. There will only be more seasoned collectors seeking the same limited base of classical mostly EAC, silver and gold coin issues. The most pricey and sought of these coins will still IMHO be EAC, silver and gold coins with historical connections and true scarcity.

 

Of course the base of modern collectors will also expand but that will not lessen the allure of age, history and scarcity. These three attributes have always been, and always will be the pillar for the top tier of coin collecting.

 

 

[cladking]

 

I still collect both classic and modern coins. However, I don't

pay more than about $250. for most moderns now because of

past "Top Pop" boondoggles with hoards of these exact coins

leaching out of the woodwork over time. There is too large an

existing population of almost all these issues for me to consid-

er them any sort of a prudent investment. However, this is only

my opinion. Some few moderns, those with populations under

25,000 issued, may prove good investments in the future, des-

pite most of these coins being already highly priced.

 

 

 

Take the 1950E East German 10p as an example. This was a little

piece of aluminum that was worth about what a US quarter is today.

These were made in enormous quantities and everyone in the entire

country could have had one of the 16 million for himself. These were

not saved. The coins wore out in circulation. Today a nice uncircula-

ted example sells for $1000. The 1969-P quarter was made in rela-

tively smaller quantities; there were not enough for everyone in America

to have one. But, just like the '50E it was widely ignored.

 

People might point at the substantial number of mint sets but most of

these are gone now. Even those which still exist rarely have a nice

specimen because these were very poorly made and they have become

very tarnished over the years.

 

Is this a $1000 coin? Of course not, but there's a small fraction as many

nice '69-P quarters as '50-D nickels and the latter got up to $200 in to-

days money back in 1964. The '69-D quarter is a little esier but try to

find the varieties for this coin!!! They don't appear in mint sets and peo-

ple didn't save rolls.

 

Contrary to popular believ it's not the low mintage moderns that are rare.

While some of these mintages are low enough to make them interesting

in their own right it is the high mintyage coins that can be truly tough. It

is often the high mintage coins in substantial demand too since these are

the circulating coins and people tend to be more likely to collect coins

that actually circulated.

 

In modern times high mintage simply tends to mean people didn't save

it. Obviously there are mountains of some moderns so they aren't all

rare, just some of them.

[Oldtrader3]

I must admit a bias in my collecting. I know that '69, '82 and '83 mint set quarters are scarce but I don't collect these particular moderns. I do collect high grade, hand picked Kennedy's, Ike's and SBA's in proof and business strike coins which are kept in Capital holders. I also have all the state quarters to 1999 and silver proof sets back to 1992 when they started. I have all the Bicentennial issues clad and silver. Plus, I have a 20th Century type set that is nearly completed except for the T1 and T2 Standing Lib. quarters. So I am not exactly against modern coins. I also collect Jefferson Nickels and have a nearly completed 1949 Mint Set on the registry.

 

My true love though is for nineteenth century silver and gold coins from periods of historical significance such as the Civil War where most silver denominations were "S" mint coins between 1862-1869 and The Reconstruction with it's severe coin shortages caused by the failed economic policies of President Grant and the Depression of 1872 caused by these policies, coupled by Equine Flu. Also the Bland Allison Act to wildly issue silver dollars that never left the mint and the Sherman Act of 1890 which repealed the Bland Allison Act and remonitising paper money with silver backing. All of these historical acts had tremendous effect on the money supply, on hoarding, plus melting of silver coins by the treasury in 1872 and shrinking mintages in through 1879-1888 years. Through this all, were gold coin issues being affected by the wars, Reconstruction, foreign specie payment, banking crises, panics and lowering of mintages for all the wrong reasons.

 

There are political factors at work today which affect coinage as well but modern coinage is mostly such high mintages that is is not the same as the radical swings of history and coinage in the nineteenth century and before. I just can't afford to collect 18th century coinage.