Mod(ern)s are not dead.

[WoodenJefferson]

2037 New Chicago

AP/UP

 

In the past 20 years, the gigantic “Tantalite Meteor” that was unearth in the African Congo,

has, as of now, yielded literally billions and trillions of Universal coins.

 

Who would of thought that back in 2017 the United States Universal Mint would abandon

the bi-metal content of it’s coinage to begin to use instead, pure tantalum, one of the

most rarefied metals on earth!

 

But, according to recently discovered Presidential f-mails to Beige House Staff members,

it has now been confirmed that our planned invasion of the Congo was not exactly only

for humanitarian reasons.

 

Prior to our invasion, ethical questions were raised about responsible corporate behavior,

human rights and endangered wildlife, all due to the exploitation of resources of tantalum

in the conflict regions of the Congo. According to the Once United Nations report, the

smuggling and exportation of tantalum helped fuel the war in the Congo, a crisis that

has resulted in approximately 5.4 million deaths since 1998 – making it the world’s

deadliest documented conflict since WW III.

 

Then in 2017, the estimated 30 billion ton “Tantalite Meteor” was unearthed in a remote

section of the Congo, which sparked a huge discussion by the Once United Nations

as to it’s significance to the human race. The US quickly modified it’s Homeland Security

Force into a rescue invasion force and promptly freed the Congolese of it’s pending burden.

 

The meteorite is being continually sectioned and shipped back to the US to be made

into our current world circulating coinage. Due to the fact that it resists attack by body

fluids and is nonirritating, tantalum turns out to be the perfect metal for coins. Since

the all the coins are now manufactured by a high speed molding process, dies never

wear out and there are no more errors to slip by the rejecter.

 

Since modern coins have been dateless since 2020, the need for changing out equipment

every year has greatly reduced the cost to manufacture the coins. It is now estimated

that for each Clinton Bi-Quarter molded, the costs to our beloved government is in the

neighborhood of only $5.37 per coin. But, since the coins show virtually no wear in 10

years of circulation and the fact that the Universal Mint charges foreign countries double

that amount, the production cost is offset and the net proceeds are used to house the

second vacationing Beige House on the isle of Old Puerto Rico .

 

As this article goes to press, there is a strange humming noise emanating from the

core of the meteor. Scientist have been summoned and equipment is arriving to determine

the subtle vibrations that surround the area adjacent to the massive hunk of space debris.

We have been assured that it is probably nothing to be concerned about and the sectioning

of the 2.5 million year old meteor will continue on schedule, supplying our Nations need

for world coinage.

 

AP/UP Staff Writer

Bussard “Buzz” Spoonage

 

[cladking]

It's only natural to prefer the coinage of an era, condition, metallic composition or some other attribute. Historical considerations are key to many collectors and coins are a means by which they can better understand the times in which they are so interested. Some people are extremely focused in their interests and some are more diffuse.

 

There do seem to be a lot more generalists among coin collectors than in most pursuits but we are still outnumbered.

[cladking]

Congo, eh?

 

That might explain a lot. That dang rift valley over there has been playing havoc with the planet since the meteorite skipped in.

 

I suppose it will have been found right underneath Lake Kivu.

[World Colonial]

What you are describing with these modern commemoratives is not scarcity but availability and from a financial standpoint, that makes a difference. I know that the 2001 Buffalo is a popular coin and apparently the 2002 Olympic coin might be too. But only under a very liberal definition scarcity could any coin with either of those mintages be considered scarce when 99% of them (or more) still exist in their original condition.

[CHABSENTIA]

What you are describing with these modern commemoratives is not scarcity but availability and from a financial standpoint, that makes a difference. I know that the 2001 Buffalo is a popular coin and apparently the 2002 Olympic coin might be too. But only under a very liberal definition scarcity could any coin with either of those mintages be considered scarce when 99% of them (or more) still exist in their original condition.

 

Relatively speaking the 2001 Buffalo at 227,000 is about five times the mintage of the 2002 Olympic.If somebody wanted to say that the 2001 Buffalo was 5 times more available than the 2002 or other Modern Commemoratives less than 40,000 such as the Black Patriot then that is one way to look at it.

 

 

My original Point was that the 2001 Buffalo with a Mintage of 227,000 is worth more in PF69 Or MS69 then other Moderns such as the 2002 Olympic with Mintages of less than 40,000 in either MS69 or PF69 or should I say costs more?

 

So if the 2002 is less available then does that mean that it does not cost more because it is not there to trade more. The 2006 Ben Franklins in MS are about a mintage of 58,000 and there are plenty available but they still costs way less in MS69 and even MS70.

[EZ_E]

The 1915 Pan-Pac gold dollar had a net mintage of 15,000. Three or four of the 1996 Olympic issues had a similar mintage.

 

The modern commems are priced around $400 retail. An MS63 Pan-Pac that in nearly one hundred years old is just double that. In 2003 the gold commem was a $525-600 coin. Now it is $800-900.

 

Why is this? Demand. Obviously there are much more modern commemorative collectors than classic gold commem collectors since the Pan-Pac has seen relatively little appreciation compared to many other series in the same time frame.

 

[font:Courier New]mintage + demand + grade & appeal = price[/font]

 

 

[Conder101]

It is now estimated that for each Clinton Bi-Quarter molded,

Would that be the Bill Clinton Memorial Quarter that they started striking in 2009 shortly after Hillary took office and Bill died under mysterious circumstances?

[CHABSENTIA]

It is now estimated that for each Clinton Bi-Quarter molded,

Would that be the Bill Clinton Memorial Quarter that they started striking in 2009 shortly after Hillary took office and Bill died under mysterious circumstances?

 

Did she make the V.P. slot?

[CHABSENTIA]

The 1915 Pan-Pac gold dollar had a net mintage of 15,000. Three or four of the 1996 Olympic issues had a similar mintage.

 

The modern commems are priced around $400 retail. An MS63 Pan-Pac that in nearly one hundred years old is just double that. In 2003 the gold commem was a $525-600 coin. Now it is $800-900.

 

Why is this? Demand. Obviously there are much more modern commemorative collectors than classic gold commem collectors since the Pan-Pac has seen relatively little appreciation compared to many other series in the same time frame.

 

[font:Courier New]mintage + demand + grade & appeal = price[/font]

 

 

Good. Now which of those factors that determine price carries the most weight?

[WoodenJefferson]

Well, that's just it, one cannot fortell the future...that's why we invented the word "speculation" to avoid having being pinned down on what we are saying is going to happen, but doesn't.

 

Bill gets a 12 1/2 cent coin honoring his contribution in that finding out the real definition of the word "is" well, not what we thought it is.

[EZ_E]

Good. Now which of those factors that determine price carries the most weight?

 

Demand!

 

Hoot just sold a PR63 Cameo early nineteenth century copper for c. $600. Imagine if that was an EAC? Can you say millions??? Demand always has majority ruling.

[EZ_E]

Bill gets a 12 1/2 cent coin honoring his contribution in that finding out the real definition of the word "is" well, not what we thought it is.

 

I saw a clip of Bill the other day. You know, he has a personality. He's likable and he didn't jack around in international affairs the way the current administration does. I miss Bill, the reprobate.

[EZ_E]

[font:Arial Black] Take Note of the Scarcity Factor [/font]

By David C. Harper, Market Update

June 03, 2008

 

 

[font:Courier New]Time to step back to get a bit philosophical. The topic is something that used to be taken for granted. Coin collectors have always known that not all coins are available to buy at all times. Collectors need to be ready to pay up when they find something truly extraordinary.

 

This expectation, as I say, used to be taken for granted. For some reason, it does not seem so now. Perhaps this is simply my sensitivity to what is going on with silver American Eagles. The U.S. Mint cannot meet the current demand for them, so they are being rationed. That is not surprising when demand has grown explosively.

 

A regular business would simply keep raising prices until supply and demand became equal. The Mint is trying to be fair by keeping its mark-up the same and rationing supply as it becomes available.

 

No good deed goes unpunished. There are complaints just the same.

 

Longtime collectors see this and may be frustrated by it if they are trying to buy silver Eagles, but they have seen things like this happen before. Newcomers find the idea that they cannot buy all they want right now to be more than just one of those things to be taken in stride.

 

But it must be remembered that this current inconvenience is a part of what gives coins their value. It is the scarcity factor - the very knowledge that supply cannot be pumped up at will or conjured out of nothing. That's why we buy them and value them so highly. [/font]

[CHABSENTIA]

Good. Now which of those factors that determine price carries the most weight?

 

Demand!

 

Hoot just sold a PR63 Cameo early nineteenth century copper for c. $600. Imagine if that was an EAC? Can you say millions??? Demand always has majority ruling.

 

So is there no demand for the Modern Commermoratives that have mintages under 40,000 or is it because of the fact that because of these low mintages there is not the same " available " supply of them to bid on in any form such as the 227 ,000 in the 2001 Buffalo. Or is it that the demand is there on the 2001 Buffalo which is more readily available becasue of eye appeal comparesd to the lower mintages.?

[EZ_E]

There are obviously not more than 40,000 collectors of the entire modern commemorative silver dollar series, hence a low price for most of the series. If there were over 40K collectors then you'd see a drastic increase in price.

 

 

The Buffalo commem is an exception since it appeals to a wider audience than just commem dollar collectors. That and because of the gold buffalo issues, demand is increasing. Yet the demand has been cyclic. The prices were high from 2001 until maybe 2005. Then the prices dropped quite a bit. With the release of the gold buff, prices escalated once again. Now, prices are starting to drop again somewhat. Why? Because of the law of supply and demand.

[World Colonial]

Good. Now which of those factors that determine price carries the most weight?

 

Demand!

 

Hoot just sold a PR63 Cameo early nineteenth century copper for c. $600. Imagine if that was an EAC? Can you say millions??? Demand always has majority ruling.

 

So is there no demand for the Modern Commermoratives that have mintages under 40,000 or is it because of the fact that because of these low mintages there is not the same " available " supply of them to bid on in any form such as the 227 ,000 in the 2001 Buffalo. Or is it that the demand is there on the 2001 Buffalo which is more readily available becasue of eye appeal comparesd to the lower mintages.?

 

I cannot speak in detail to these particular coins but the answer to your question is that yes, it can happen. Sometimes the supply is suppressed because the prices are low. I would be completely baffled if that was the case with modern commemoratives because the supply is still relatively large, but I believe it to be the case with some of the coins I collect and undoubtedly applies to others on this forum..

 

Whatever the coin, most likely there are more out there than most people believe there to be. Not always, but most of the time. But if a coin experiences a dramatic price increase, especially over a short period of time and the supply does not increase substnatially, then you will know that the coin is almost certainly not available in any quantity.

 

Here is an example. Yesterday, a 1927 South Africa ANACS AU-55 Shilling sold for $1380 including buyer's premium on Heritage. I have the same coin in an NGC holder that I bought about six years ago and paid a small fraction of that price for it raw. If this sale represented price discovery which is what I believe to be the case since this has been happening for about 18 months, then more of these coins will come up for sale if they exist. If they still do not, then the con will be as scarce as I believe it to be.

[EZ_E]

Very good point about creating artificial shortages. That has been a common ploy of the oil cartels for a century now. If 5,000,000 barrels of oil is held back each day then a fabricated shortage is created.

 

The same thing often happens in the coin industry.

[Oldtrader3]

The Buffalo Dollar and Currency Set is one modern set that I prefer and it was limited to 50,000 sets. I have two of the original sets in mint shipping boxes that I am keeping. I also have one original Lewis and Clark Coinage and Currency Set, also with 50,000 mintage that I have kept.

 

The The Kennedy Half and Dollar set, at 50,000 sets, was another set that will always be popular. Aside from the popularity of the Kennedy presidency, the 1998 Kennedy matte proof half is a must-have coin to complete the Kennedy proof set which will always stimulate demand. I broke the Kennedy set up and had it certified to use the matte proof, half dollar in a registry type set.

 

I have kept the Buffalo Coin and Currency Sets and the Lewis and Clark Coin and Currency Set in original packaging because their historical perspective is in completeness, with their stamps and currency prints. These are sets that I feel will be in demand and are sufficiently limited in mintage to be desirable modern sets for collectors in the future. These two modern coin and currency sets are artificially created demand by the mint, but IMHO in a good way.

[World Colonial]

Actually, in my last post I was not claiming that anyone was creating artificial shortages though that is certainly a possibility (at least in theory). I actually meant that an artificial shortage (and perhaps this is not the correct term) will exist because the prices are low.

 

The reason why I believe it happens or at least did happen with the series I mentioned is because there really are not very many quality coins available. Additionally, the Krause manual has not changed list prices for almost 10 years. Since there have been so few sales of these coins (and still are), most collectors have little to no information to base what the current price "should be". So they use the catalog price and will not pay the premium that is required to increase whatever potential supply is available. I believe this is not uncommon for infrequently traded coins. Collectors use the price catalog as their basis for what they want to pay and the current owners are not willing to sell for these prices. So few or no coins are available. Eventually, some material comes on the market and the prices realized (such as in the December 2006 Spink Remick sale in my case) blow away the "official" price and a new baseline is established.

 

With modern commemoratives, I consider the chance of this happening to be essentially zero. In addition to collectors such as those on this forum who have a plan or a strategy for their collections, my guess is that many casual collectors buy US Mint products and some or many of them just "sit" on them. But for most or all of them, any large price increase will usually release a decent amount or a lot of supply as the current owners decide to "cash" in. If the new supply is too large for the collector base, then prices will fall from the peak though possibly settle above the more recent level.

 

In the case of circulating modern coinage, it is possible that the example I outlined for South Africa Union is also true for these coins though I do not believe to the same extreme. Based upon what our forum colleague cladking has written, there is a disconnect between the perception of scarcity for some of these issues and the current market prices. I cannot argue with that because he is an expert in this field and I am not. Where I differ in my opinion is on the future financial potential of these issues.

 

 

 

 

 

[cladking]

People have a sort of feel for how difficult something like a 1927 SA shilling is to find. The mintage was high but only by the standards of the day. These are seen frequently but they are usually heavily worn. There are many thousands of collectors who have a good feel for these. Those who want one are mostly on a level playing field competing with other collectors for the available supply.

 

Nobody knows how tough a 1956 5f Chinese coin is. All I really know is that you can't find one. The funny thing about this is that 10 or 12 million other collectors won't make it any easier to find one; they'll make it infinitely difficult.

 

Lots of the moderns exist in huge numbers even in unc. But those which aren't common have a tendency to be scarce or rare. This isn't true in every case, of course but it's a strong tendency. I got a 30 year headstart looking for this stuff because everyone believed coins made in base metal in huge numbers would never be collected. This belief assured that most didn't survive. Unfortunately the headstart wasn't all that beneficial because rare coins are, well... ...rare.

 

It's very difficult for me to believe that people will ever stop collecting moderns. But, then, I never imagined it would take them so long to start.

[EZ_E]

Nobody knows how tough a 1956 5f Chinese coin is. All I really know is that you can't find one. The funny thing about this is that 10 or 12 million other collectors won't make it any easier to find one; they'll make it infinitely difficult.

 

Dang it!

 

Now I gotta cross that off of my "2 Buy" list!

 

[michael]

oh my

 

my my my my my my my my my my my my my my my

[Jeffrey Cardona]

Nobody knows how tough a 1956 5f Chinese coin is. All I really know is that you can't find one. The funny thing about this is that 10 or 12 million other collectors won't make it any easier to find one; they'll make it infinitely difficult.

 

Dang it!

 

Now I gotta cross that off of my "2 Buy" list!

 

 

Hey, maybe we can start counterfitting their coins....just a nice way of returning the favor!!

[World Colonial]

The comments in the first paragraph are true, but only when the series is no longer a "sleeper". With this particular one, while I do not know how many people are knowledgeable about it, it is still not that many. Because if it was, I would no longer be able to buy these coins cheaply which I am still able to do occasionally.

 

Today, this series is no longer undiscovered. But yes, a market like China almost certainly is from a financial standpoint as are most foreign coin series. While I believe that China has good prospects, that is not true of most of them. They are dead money and probably always will be no matter how scarce the coins are.

[CHABSENTIA]

I was able to get a 1995 Olympics Cycling the other say. It was the only one offered that I have seen recently. Now this one has a Mintage in MS of less than 20,000.I looked at the most recent Red Book and it only lists it in MS67 which they have for $165.00.Any purchased and kept in the Mint holder is usually going to grade MS69.

 

The 2002 Olympic MS is 40,000 or about twice that number. I have yet to see a 1995 Olympics Tennis which is also about 20,000 at any auction in MS .

 

 

I was able to obtain the 1995 Cycling for much less then the Red Book in MS67 and I would argue that less than 20,000 is a low mintage. The 2001 Bufffalo at 227,000 is at least 11 times that figure but is being bid at for at least 2 1/2 times as much in the same grade.

 

The demand is more for the 2001 Buffalo or the price would not be supported for so long.One would think that a coin with less than a 20,000 mintage would also be bid up when available . I did still pay more for it then the 2002 but still a lot less than the 2001 Buffalo.

 

 

So it would seem to me that Demand in this case has a further criteria.Either there aren't that many people out there trying to complete a set or the prices of the coin in this instance with less than a mintage of 20,000 would be bid up as it doesn't become avaiable that often or people are bidding up a constanly available supply based on the love of design that is readily available or a combination of the two.

 

The other solution is that there aren't that many people collecting Modern Commemoratives.

 

Now lets look at another area. There are a little less than 40,000 of the Jackie Robinson in MS or about the same as the 2002 Olympic but when available the 1997 Robinson goes for more in raw state then the 2002 Olympic but still about half of the 2001 Buffalo. Both the Olympics and Baseball are Sports oriented themes so it would seem that either more people are buying because either Baseball is more important to them then the Olympics or perhaps because Baseball is palyed every year while the Olympics is every four years. Another possibilty is that the 1997 Robinson is honoring an individual instead of a concept.

 

So it is probably safe to say that more people are purchasing certain Modern Commmemoratives based on design and what they mean individually to the purchaser and are not trying to obtain a complete set eitther because they have no interest, due to the availibilty/scarcity or the cost for a complete set because of the number of coins to have a complete set so they just pick what is available based on their personal likes.So there is no demand because of what appears to be a shortage in certain dates such as the Cycling with less than a mintage of 20,000 but a demand based on individual preferences.

 

 

One must assume then that for whatever reason there are less than say 25,000 people trying to complete a set at this time or that less then 25,000 have a complete set already or the 1995 Cycling would have been bid up more.

 

 

 

I don't think that the American Eagles come into the equation as far as the availibilty of Silver is concerened because the Modern Commemoratives also have an ounce of Silver.

 

 

So either one of two things are going to happen.Either Modern Commemoratives are going to stay about the same except for certain issues or they are going to appreciate a great deal if more people become interested in the series because

some have more shortages than others and even if they become more available as prices escalate there is still a finite supply.

[Conder101]

I don't think that the American Eagles come into the equation as far as the availibilty of Silver is concerened because the Modern Commemoratives also have an ounce of Silver

Close, .7734 oz of silver.

 

there are less than say 25,000 people trying to complete a set

But, but, but the mint says there are over 145 million coin collectors in the country! ( ) You mean out of 145 million collectors less than .02% of them are trying to collect this series.? What great upside potential!!

[World Colonial]

You have a lot in your last post and I think I agree with much of what you say, but let me add a few comments and you can let me know.

 

A mintage of 20,000 is low? Not really. You need to just keep in mind that almost every one of them are still in a high grade. So unlike most other coins, I do not believe that this is a low number. Most other coins have nowhere near this many uncirculated specimens. It is only commemoratives or proofs that do.

 

As for the collector base for modern commemoratives, my opinion is that many casual collectors or beginners buy them. Or even non-collectors. A previous boss of mine once asked me to provide him with the prices of post 1968 proof sets. They had been sitting in a bank box for decades. He was not a coin collector at all and my suspicion is that there are a decent number of people like this who own these coins. (And when I gave him the current prices, he could not believe he had been wasting his money to pay for a safe deposit box.)

 

What I think happens with collectors of these coins is that they start with this type of material and then move on to other series such as US classics or, as in my case, world coins or ancient coins. (There may be many intermediate steps in this progression.) But in any event, outside of registry set collectors, I do not believe that many aspire to collect these coins. (In other words, they do not view this segment as the one of their primary goals of their collecting.) The fact that it can also cost a lot of money to complete the set is also an impediment. The US Mint keeps churning out this material and it can cost a collector thousands of dollars a year to buy everything. They like or may like them but do so because it is what they are familiar with, it is what they can afford to buy and they have not yet learned what else is out there.

 

On the Jackie Robinson coins, I do not care much for the design but I think it has a few things going for it. Unlike many or most commemoratives (both modern and classic) which recognize events of dubios merit in my opinion, this was a very important event culturally though it may not seem so now. The fact that it is linked to baseball will provide some incremental demand from sports fans who are not coin collectors. And per my prior comments on demographics, if there is an increase of collectors who are minorities, at least some of them are likely to want this coin.

 

On the pricing of that one coin, given the available siupply in high grade, I hardly consider $165 a bargain. There are many "better" coins that sell for less or only slightly more. I recently bought a 1749 Mexico uncirculated pillar 1/2 real (raw) for $150 from Karl Stephens. Lets put both these coins in front of most collectors and see what they choose.

[CHABSENTIA]

I don't think that the American Eagles come into the equation as far as the availibilty of Silver is concerened because the Modern Commemoratives also have an ounce of Silver

Close, .7734 oz of silver.

 

there are less than say 25,000 people trying to complete a set

But, but, but the mint says there are over 145 million coin collectors in the country! ( ) You mean out of 145 million collectors less than .02% of them are trying to collect this series.? What great upside potential!!

 

I was more or less following up with Victor who stated in an earlier post that " there were less than 40,000 people collecting the series and hence the low prices"

 

Statisically your figures are correct in the numbers but there has to be some other explanation because it would seem that a bigger demand would drive prices up more. Many people on thiese forums have stated that they value the older classical Commemoratives. as opposed to the Moderns .

 

There is one other small explanation and that is that with higher prices for just about everything that Funds are limited and people are concentrating on other areas while disdaining the Moderns because they are recent.

 

 

I can see few explanations when certain Modern Commemoratives that are available and have large mintages sell for more than Modern Commemoratives with 1/5 the Mintage unless people are cherry picking for reasons such as design and themes without a desire to complete a set because when the ones that become available rarely do not command much of a premium even though the mintage is low.

 

Then it would seem that the number trying to complete the series already have done so or is very small. perhaps on the order of 40,000 or the .02 you mention which would indeed have the potential for large price increases with more demand.

 

If there were 40,000 trying to complete a set and many people have already complted a set then the ones with Mintages less than 40,000 and many are 20,000 etc should be in demand

[CHABSENTIA]

You have a lot in your last post and I think I agree with much of what you say, but let me add a few comments and you can let me know.

 

A mintage of 20,000 is low? Not really. You need to just keep in mind that almost every one of them are still in a high grade. So unlike most other coins, I do not believe that this is a low number. Most other coins have nowhere near this many uncirculated specimens. It is only commemoratives or proofs that do.

 

As for the collector base for modern commemoratives, my opinion is that many casual collectors or beginners buy them. Or even non-collectors. A previous boss of mine once asked me to provide him with the prices of post 1968 proof sets. They had been sitting in a bank box for decades. He was not a coin collector at all and my suspicion is that there are a decent number of people like this who own these coins. (And when I gave him the current prices, he could not believe he had been wasting his money to pay for a safe deposit box.)

 

What I think happens with collectors of these coins is that they start with this type of material and then move on to other series such as US classics or, as in my case, world coins or ancient coins. (There may be many intermediate steps in this progression.) But in any event, outside of registry set collectors, I do not believe that many aspire to collect these coins. (In other words, they do not view this segment as the one of their primary goals of their collecting.) The fact that it can also cost a lot of money to complete the set is also an impediment. The US Mint keeps churning out this material and it can cost a collector thousands of dollars a year to buy everything. They like or may like them but do so because it is what they are familiar with, it is what they can afford to buy and they have not yet learned what else is out there.

 

On the Jackie Robinson coins, I do not care much for the design but I think it has a few things going for it. Unlike many or most commemoratives (both modern and classic) which recognize events of dubios merit in my opinion, this was a very important event culturally though it may not seem so now. The fact that it is linked to baseball will provide some incremental demand from sports fans who are not coin collectors. And per my prior comments on demographics, if there is an increase of collectors who are minorities, at least some of them are likely to want this coin.

 

On the pricing of that one coin, given the available siupply in high grade, I hardly consider $165 a bargain. There are many "better" coins that sell for less or only slightly more. I recently bought a 1749 Mexico uncirculated pillar 1/2 real (raw) for $150 from Karl Stephens. Lets put both these coins in front of most collectors and see what they choose.

 

I was mainly comparing the Mintage of less than 20,000 on the coin to the Mintage of the 2001 Buffalo which is 227,000 or ten times that but sells for at leat 2 1/2 times as much in the same grade as it.

 

I also used th e 1995 Olympics cycling with 1/10 the mintage and the $165.00 because even though we are not talking about a large amount of money because the Red Book with the exception of the 2001 Buffalo lists the $165.00 which is more then it lists for other Modern Commemoratives in the same grade even when the mintages of 20,000 are similar.Yet the one time that the 1995 Cycling became available in the last few weeks it only went for $103.00

 

 

So something else is going on here and it is not demand for demands sake or because people are scooping up the low mintages when available.This could be because as you say the people collecting the series are novice or not serious collectors of the series and also because there arent significant numbers above the numbers who have already completed a set.

 

One of the other main reasons is as you mention and that is that people are collecting only according to themes and what certain depictions mean to them whether it is just Baseball or by African Americans etc.Therec is also the 1998 Black Patriot with a Mintage of about 30,000 which also sells less than the 2001 Buffalo but more than other similar mintages so the possibility of what it means to certain people is also a factor.

 

There might be another factor. I checked the site and saw that my 2002 MS Olympic that has a mintage of less then 40,000 was graded as MS70. The Numismedia value for an MS69 for this coin is about $47.00 The Numismedia value for it in MS70 is $150.00. A MS 69 for the 2001 Buffalo with aa mintage of 227,000 is about $300.00 and an MS70 would be upwards of $400.00 and closer to $500.00

 

According to a conversation I had with Numismedia last year part of their Value determination depends on trends. In another words they are getting a value from the times that the coin has traded and a mathematical compilation of those prices.

 

It could then be possible that a coin with such a lower mintage and is not readily available doesnt have a constant track record and the prices have stabilized. It could also be possible that the 2001 is more sought after because of its larger price and the fear it might go higher and the desire to own it so it is feeding on itself.

 

[Oldtrader3]

Chabsentia; Huh?

 

No offense, but sometimes your meandering writing style, with it's lack of conciseness is difficult to read, let alone follow the mental processes to the point in your treatise where you leave off in middle of the message. Then, you post a second time, pick up and continue the meandering process to some discussion point that you never reached in the first post. It is kind of like you are talking out-loud to yourself. Sometimes the vagueness makes me miss your point, often in the first post, sometimes in the second post. Sorry, but your convoluted sentences, mental meanderings and lack of precision in writing is difficult to read and understand. It is like following a U.S. Forest Service Trail map through National Forest wilderness. I really am not sure where you're going sometimes. Sorry, I don't intend to be critical, I'm just confounded by your writing style.