An $800 1883-O Morgan Dollar MS62 on E-Bay!

[World Colonial]

A couple of comments on your reply.

 

Its true that Morgans and toned Morgans are not moderns and yes I consider both of them relatively more desirable than any modern issue, but the comparison I made about the relative scarcity is correct from a financial standpoint regardless of the fact that the coins are not the same. Toned Morgans (or any other "rainbow" toned coins) are relatively scarce compared to generic Morgans just like Ultra high grade moderns are relatively scarce versus their lower grade counterparts. But the fact of the matter remains that both are common in absolute terms and that both rely on their premium pricing (on different types of eye appeal) on a very limited number of collectors who are willing to pay these premiums.

 

I'm saying from a financial standpoint that this is a losing proposition. I'm hardly infallible and could be wrong as we all have on many occasions. And while I do not collect coins for the express purpose of making a profit, I would never consider buying a coin that has the potential to lose a subtantial proportion of its value.

 

On your comment about the relative financial merits of buying one toned versus multiple other Morgans, neither have merit to me. That Morgans are very popular and will continue to be so I do not doubt. But how this will translate into their future prices is an entirely different issue. Most "regular" Morgans are simply too common and in my opinion their current prices are supported by substantial buying by "Investors" and speculators. Toned Morgans I presume are different but the number of collectors or investors who would be willing to pay the premiums you mention must be a small fraction of the overall Morgan collector base though I have no idea what that is. I doubt that the collector base for these is much or any greater than for many other US series or world coins whose generic demand is less overall. And unlike collectors of other series, its more likely than they will reduce the premiums they are willing pay for this eye appeal.

 

On the stability of the market, the coin market overall has been in a bull market since 2002, so though I might be wrong about my opinion on these coins, I would not consider that an indication of the staying power of them either. Let's see how these coins do when the coin market goes through a bear market like they did in 1987-1990. Morgan dollars were absolutely hammered during that period.

 

My personal expectation is that the economic difficulties we see around us today will get worse, possibly a lot worse. So far, these coin prices have held up or seem to have done so, as I do not track price US coin price trends in detail because I am a specilist in a field that is outside of the mainstream. But I expect coin prices overall to fall and for the most overpriced issues to fall substantially.

[lehigh96]

World,

 

I now see your comparison between rainbow toned Morgans and ultra high grade moderns, although I resent the fact that your analogy lumps me in with people who pay premium price for plastic slabs with big numbers so they can get the maximum registry points for a coin that they can't differentiate between another coin a grade or two lower.

 

It is not a losing proposition, it is a risky one. These coins have the potential to either lose or make serious money in the future. It is perfectly fine that you don't want to endure this risk, but you should consider that the people who do take this risk may have a better understanding of this segment of the market than you do.

 

The third paragraph is where I believe you have missed your mark. You state that the number of collectors that pay these premiums is a small fraction of the overall base. That is exactly what drives the price to its current level. If more people were willing to pay the current premiums, it would drive the price higher, because the number of coins available is essentially fixed, and much more rare than you give credit. If we arbitrarily lowered the premiums for rainbow toned Morgans, the price drop would cause a buying frenzy which would in turn drive the prices right back up again. You seem to think that very few Morgan collectors want rainbow toned coins. I think most of them want them and can't afford to pay the premiums, but would pay lower premiums in a heartbeat if the opportunity presented itself.

 

If the original coin listed in this thread was advertised for $500, there would be a long line of buyers, trust me.

 

I have no intention of selling any of my coins, and would certainly not sell them during a bear market. In fact, if the entire coin market turns into a bear market, I will be buying in anticipation of the turnaround that is inevitable in a cyclical market.

[World Colonial]

I am not sure why you resent my comments because they are not personally directed at you. I was making an economic evaluation which I believe is a reasonable one and I admitted that there is possibility or likelihood that it will be incorrect.

 

I also did consider that there are others who have a better understanding of this area than I do as I do in mine. I would make a similar evaluation of any other area and have in the past as others who have been longer on this board than you will know if they have read my posts. Some might agree with me and others might not. The difference is that most people will not be as direct as I am. I do not make comments with the intent to offend anyone but I will state my opinions in what I believe to be a logical manner.

 

But you are correct that the words "losing proposition" were the wrong ones. Your term of risky would have been better. But when I was speaking of the risk, I was not making any comments about whether you would or would not sell your coins as I have no insight into that matter. But what I will tell you is there are many who will in a bear market, not specifically in your area but across the board, because they will choose to or have to. Coins as a whole are overextended in my opinion as an indirect beneficiry of the credit bubble and some areas are more extended than others, which in my opinion includes these items. The economy is in trouble, there are many who are also in financial difficulty and coins as a luxury item are at risk under these conditions.

[cpm9ball]

Lehigh, the world is going crazy! Gasoliine is at $20 a gallon! Inflation is edging close to 40%! The government has just announced a 500% increase in income taxes to bail out all of the banks who are losing their shirts on mortgage foreclosures! Unemployment has reached 52% nationwide because big business has exported all of their operations overseas and only maintain P.O. boxes in the States!

 

I'll take your rainbow Morgans if you need some cash!!!!!!

 

Chris

[World Colonial]

If you are implying that my opinion on the financial prospects of the coins which are the topic of this thread are based upon a "doomsday" economic scenario, that would be incorrect.

 

That these coins are very expensive relative to other Morgans is undeniable. These coins are also very expensive relative to other coins that can be purchased for this same money, many of which are much scarcer and for which the potential increase in demand is also much greater. Whether these coins are "over valued" or not is a matter of opinion as there is no absolute value; all values are relative. Anyone who does not agree with my opinion is free to buy them and pay whatever price they wish.

 

 

[cpm9ball]

WC, I meant to cast no aspersions upon you. I was just having a little fun with Lehigh because his rainbows are gorgeous.

 

Chris

[lehigh96]

WC, I meant to cast no dispersions upon you. I was just having a little fun with Lehigh because his rainbows are gorgeous.

 

Chris

 

Chris, that joke was very funny. World, my comment about being upset was also supposed to be but I don't think it was very funny because you thought I was serious.

 

World, Don't worry about offending me, I have very thick skin. I aslo hope that none of my comments are out of line or offensive in anyway. Just so you know, I am an instigator because I really like a meaningful debate. Unfortunately, I agree with everything you have written in you last two posts and have nothing to debate anymore.

 

Take care my friend.

 

PS Chris, you can't have them, they are all mine.

[cpm9ball]

WC, I meant to cast no dispersions upon you. I was just having a little fun with Lehigh because his rainbows are gorgeous.

 

Chris

 

Chris, that joke was very funny. World, my comment about being upset was also supposed to be but I don't think it was very funny because you thought I was serious.

 

World, Don't worry about offending me, I have very thick skin. I aslo hope that none of my comments are out of line or offensive in anyway. Just so you know, I am an instigator because I really like a meaningful debate. Unfortunately, I agree with everything you have written in you last two posts and have nothing to debate anymore.

 

Take care my friend.

 

PS Chris, you can't have them, they are all mine.

 

Is that the instigator in you talking? Are you just posturing for a good price? I have a thick skin, too, but fortunately nobody has suggested that it be used for pork rinds. I don't think I'd care to be boiled in oil. You'll sell, Lehigh. Sooner or later you'll sell.

 

Chris