The Counterfeiters … and the Fed

[jtryka]

I know some folks that live in Sweet Home, personally I think all of Washington and Oregon are beautiful, even east of the Cascades! As for modular homes, my company builds them, and they are great homes, nothing like what most people think of as a "double wide." Too bad our closest plant to you is in Colorado.

[EZ_E]

I know some folks that live in Sweet Home, personally I think all of Washington and Oregon are beautiful, even east of the Cascades! As for modular homes, my company builds them, and they are great homes, nothing like what most people think of as a "double wide." Too bad our closest plant to you is in Colorado.

 

Could you swing a friend a discount, Jeff?

 

I really need a home of my own for between assignments and a place to put my stuff. I always have the option of putting a modular on my property in north, central Arkansas. I'm sure you deliver there.

[jtryka]

I'd love to Victor, unfortunately I am leaving the company at the end of the month! We could do a home in Ark. from either our Iowa plant or the Indiana plant, but unfortunately our Iowa plant is swamped doing a barracks project for Ft. Carson in Colorado. Heck, we can probably do it from our North Carolina plant as that's about the same distance as from Indiana. I am not sure if we have any builders in Arkansas, but you can always call our Indiana plant at 866-299-0680.

 

End of SPAM, you may now continue with your regularly scheduled programming.

[EZ_E]

Were are you going? Are you staying in Indiana?

[jtryka]

I might be headed north a ways...

[CHABSENTIA]

I am not sure how it was delivered.

 

I only know that my Son-in Law said that they got a good deal on it as it was in foreclosure.He does any work on it as he can bulid or do just about anything in a house. He put is some hardwood floors last year on it.I have three Chihuahuas and for some reason one of them will not walk on it. If you put her doen on it she just freezes in place and won't move. The other two and the two of my daughters have no problem.

 

It seems roomy enough inside.It has three bedrooms. One Master and two smaller ones.. He built a screened in Patio off it.The Heat and Air conditioning come up from grills in the floor.

 

He did put the imported Italian tiles down for me cheaper than somebody else would have charged me by about 20%. I asked him why he didn't put tiles down like them and he said that they were too heavy and that the weight of them in the double wide would collapse.

 

 

The recreation and the scenery sound great.I knew a guy that I worked with just after my Company went Bankrupt about 15 years ago. This guy and hsi wife were both retired and he had a cabin near an area similar to that one. He would work 6 months a year here and then for the other 6 months they would go to the cabin and he would hunt and fish.

 

Sounds like you have everyhting well planned.

 

[Oldtrader3]

Jeff and Victor, There are (4) factory home plants within 60 miles of Sweet Home. Oregon is the left coast, hub of factory home builders. You can buy them cheaper in Oregon, plus in-state, there are no delivery charges.

 

These homes vary somewhat in floor and roof loading specs. With an 8x2's on 16 inch centers and the steel beams running the length, it should be stronger than a stick built home. My present home is 2x8 floor beams with double 2x8's below bearing walls. Roof loading should be 30psf, some factory homes are 20psf but where it snows, this is not enough. The model we are considering is built locally and has R-40 insulation throughout.

[EZ_E]

My present home is 2x8 floor beams with double 2x8's below bearing walls. Roof loading should be 30psf, some factory homes are 20psf but where it snows, this is not enough. The model we are considering is built locally and has R-40 insulation throughout.

 

That is very impressive! That is the way homes should be built. I saw some of the new upper middle class homes that were first built in Vegas, within 5 years and less there were major problems: paint peeling, trim coming undone outside the house, lava rocks and water fall to the pool all broken, etc.

 

Sounds like you have a home that will last, Charlie. And you'll need more that your new bride to keep you warm in the winters there, that's why R-40 is exeptional!

 

(thumbs u (thumbs u

[Oldtrader3]

Thanks, Victor. We have gotten way OT. I am going to let this post die.

[jtryka]

Charlie,

 

I know all about the many manufactured housing plants in central Oregon, I used to cover the industry. Our homes are different than those built by some competitors in that ours are not built on metal chassis, but are all wood, so if you walk into the basement of one of our homes and look up, all you see are 2x12s. We can also build up to 4 stories, though generally that would be for apartments or other large projects, but we build a lot of 2-story homes. And because of the construction to be built to travel they survive disaster pretty well too, our homes in the southern market have survived Cat 4 hurricanes, but there's not much of that to worry about in Nevada or Oregon.

[Oldtrader3]

Jeff, I have seen factory homes built with steel floor beams. Multistory ones are not available out here yet, although I have looked at one two-story factory home. I have lung, heart and kidney problems and need a single story home. Our present home is two-story which is a problem when I am sick.

[jtryka]

That's perfectly understandable Charlie, I think the environment in central Oregon will treat you well, man I sure miss the northwest!

[EZ_E]

I still remember fondly when we three and DeSoto and others met in the Seattle area. I saw some good coins and met some good peeps. (thumbs u

 

Charlie and I hooked up one more time and went to a coin show at the Tacoma Dome. That's when I picked up my Randall Hoard Cent.

[jtryka]

The shows at the Tacoma dome were great! And pizza and beer in Seattle was fun too.

[Oldtrader3]

It would be great to get together again some time with either of you or better yet, both of you.

[EZ_E]

I agree. Well, I'm in Tonopah, Charlie. You're welcome over for supper any time!

[jtryka]

Well, I do have family in Vegas and they have land in Goldfield, which I don't think is too far from where you are.

[EZ_E]

Only 30 miles, Jeff.

[Oldtrader3]

I sure that Donna would be happy to cook a nice dinner for you guys also, Victor. Anytime that you are near our place.

[EZ_E]

That is a definite, Charlie! Thanks. Remember that I have Caleb, my St. Bernard. He turned 9 in Dec but is still doing great, 3 legs and all. A little arthritis is slowing him down some, though.

[Oldtrader3]

We have a 3yo corgi named Darby. She is very friendly and cute. She believes anyone who comes to our house comes to see her. We also have (3) cats.

[EZ_E]

Back on topic...

 

 

linkage

 

Rare Coin News

Is the U.S. Dollar Becoming Just Another Currency?

by Adam Crum

 

One of the challenges to a euro-based oil transaction trading system has been the lack of a euro-denominated oil pricing standard, or oil "marker" as it is called in the industry. The three current oil markers, West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), Norway Brent crude and UAE Dubai crude, are all denominated in U.S. dollars.

 

I use the words "has been" because Iran switched its oil payments for its European Union (EU) and Asian Clearing Union (ACU) customers from dollars to euros in mid-2003. And it appears that a new oil marker based on Iranian crude and denominated in euros only has become a reality.

 

Is it deja vu?

Iraq's oil export currency was changed to the euro by Saddam Hussein in September 2000 when he announced that Iraq would no longer accept dollars for oil being sold under the United Nations' Oil-for-Food program. However, in June 2003, that country's oil sales once again became denominated in U.S. dollars after the involvement of the U.S. military.

 

In actual fact, Iran has already committed a more egregious "offense." If Iran's oil bourse is successful, it would challenge the domination of both London's International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), both of which are owned, incidentally, by U.S. corporations.

 

Tehran's oil bourse constitutes a clear encroachment on the supremacy of the dollar in a critically important international market. Without some sort of U.S. intervention, the euro will quite possibly establish a solid foothold in worldwide oil trade.

 

The Euro has become the second world reserve currency?

Throughout 2003 and 2004 Russia and China, for example, significantly increased their central bank holdings of the euro and continued this trend in 2007. As recently as mid-November 2007, Cheng Sewei, vice-chairman of China's parliament, announced that China will shift the country's reserves out of dollar-denominated investments and into the euro and other strong currencies. This could be construed as a move anticipating that the euro has become a second world reserve currency.

 

Beijing central banker Xu Jian twisted the knife, saying, "the dollar is losing its status as the world currency. The U.S. dollar's global currency status is shaky," he said, "and the creditworthiness of dollar assets is falling."

 

In July 2005, China re-valued the yuan/RNB; however, that was not nearly as significant as its decision to move towards a "basket of currencies" (including the yen, euro, and dollar), at the same time disassociating itself from a sole U.S. dollar peg. (The re-valuation immediately lowered China's monthly bill for imported oil by 2%...and that was when oil was $45)

 

It is predicted that countries and companies unhappy holding huge amounts of overvalued U.S. dollars to finance their oil transactions will drive the success of the Iranian bourse. This could absolutely be true, if China is any indication.

 

Huge sums could begin shifting from the dollar to the euro, although exactly how much will now be difficult to calculate since the Federal Reserve no longer publishes data on the M3 money supply, the data that tracks how many U.S. dollars are held by foreigners.

 

Macroeconomic and geopolitical implications 
of a successful Iranian bourse critical

In 2003, the United States-administered Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Iraq canceled oil lease contracts from 1997-2002. These were contracts into which France, Russia, China and other nations had entered under Saddam Hussein's regime. Since these contracts were worth a reported $1.1 trillion, the nullification engendered political tensions between the U.S and the European Union, Russia and China. This was also, you may remember, when Iraqi oil sales once again became denominated in U.S. dollars only, having previously been replaced by euros under Saddam Hussein.

 

Since Iran and China signed a substantial oil and gas trade agreement on October 28, 2004 valued between $70 billion and $100 billion dollars, should China's oil investments be subject to a similar fate in Iran, the geopolitical implications would be serious.

 

Yet, China is just one example of the complex macroeconomic and political implications of a successful Iranian bourse if they did implement euro-settlement capability.

 

The Iranian bourse could potentially remove the major technical obstacle for a petroeuro system in international oil trade, initiate petrodollar versus petroeuro currency hedging and introduce entirely new dynamics to the biggest market in the world.

The Iranian bourse could create a significant shift in the flow of international commerce to the Middle East, while much of it is now linked to the United Kingdom's Brent crude marker.

The United Kingdom will find itself even more uncomfortably situated between United States financial interests and those of the European Union.

The dollar's international demand/liquidity value will most certainly fall further.

Policy makers in the U.S. will face difficult choices: compromise, petrodollar vs petroeuro warfare or, in the extreme, military intervention.

The U.S. dollar...just another currency?

According to reports, the Saudis have shown an interest in the Iranian bourse since 9/11. Saudi Arabian investors have been increasing their investments in Iran over western markets. In fact, it is no surprise that many Middle Eastern countries would like to see the bourse successful for obvious reasons.

 

Although we do not know exactly how the Iranian oil bourse will affect the dollar, clearly a euro-denominated oil exchange could catch on, and it would seriously challenge the unique position of the U.S. dollar as the world's sole reserve currency as well. A successful Iranian bourse will solidify the petroeuro as an alternative oil transaction currency, and thereby end the petrodollar's domination in the oil and gas market.

 

On December 8, 2007 Iran stopped selling its oil for U.S. dollars. The Iranian ISNA news agency cited the country's oil minister G. Nozari as saying, "In line with a policy of selling crude oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, the sale of our country's oil in U.S. dollars has been completely eliminated."

 

Should the dollar become just another currency, its value would drop even further under the weight of the huge U.S. deficits and debt. Although I am not among the "doomers" that say a collapse is imminent, I do believe it reasonable to expect that the dollar will remain weak.

 

I think is safe to say that the speculative impact these and other events have had a tremendous amount of positive impact on the value of gold and rare coins. Conventional wisdom says that to be truly diversified and safe, you must own gold in one of its various forms. Gold coins are a great value now (although quality coins will become more difficult to find). Now is an opportune time to trade up and add to a collection. Tens of thousands of new collectors and investors have emerged over the past seven years and many coins have been added to collections, which is good for the market since those coins will be off the market for years to come.

 

Numismatic rare gold coins have attained long-term wealth preserving status because they...

 

Can't be produced and, thus, devalued by governmental authorities;

Are easily traded in a market that is always open and gets hotter and hotter;

Provide an ideal hedge against inflation and consistently outperform other assets in times of economic turmoil, insecurity and rising interest rates; and

Possess aesthetic and historic value.

I encourage you to call one of Monaco's account representatives toll-free at 1-888-900-9948 to initiate or enhance the rare coin portion of your portfolio. Do it right now! Among other benefits, our investment professionals can...

 

Assist you in planning your rare coin investment strategy or reviewing one that is already established, and

Keep you updated on market news, what America's top numismatists are doing and recommending and new offerings.

Monaco Rare Coins is a member of the Monex family of companies, industry leaders in hard asset investment since 1967 with over $30 billion in client transactions. Monaco will always make you an offer to buy your certified rare U.S. coins, even if you purchased them elsewhere.

 

* The term "bourse" refers to a stock exchange for securities trading and is derived from the French stock exchange in Paris, the Federation Internationale des Bourses de Valeurs.

 

 

[World Colonial]

This analysis sounds more like a self promoting ad, regardless of whether there is any merit to their argument. They could have as easily left it out to get to their end game which is to market coins and bullion.

 

As for the USD, if anything is going to end its reserve staus, it will be its poor option as a store of value. The Euro has almost doubled in value in 5+ years, rising from about 82 cents in 2002 to $1.60 today.

 

I also find many of their assertions to be exagerated or outdated. For example:

 

Their comment about the UK is true now and have been in the recent past and has nothing to do with their article.

 

There is an assumption that if Iran successfully launches this market, that they will have a monopoly in Euro based oil contracts. This is false. Any other futures market including the US and the UK can do the same and there is no economic reason for them not to do so.

 

The US may intervene militarily in the region, but its ridiculous to attribute causation to this reason. If it does happen, it is much more likely to occur due to supply considerations than in the currency in which it is sold.

 

The USD will certainly lose its reserve status. That is inevitable. But at the moment anyway, foreign government holdings are held hostage to their very size. None of the larger players can offload or significantly reduce their holdings (unless they can do it in secret which is unlikely) without potentially causing a run on the USD which would only make things worse. Their only likely option is reduce them proportionately over time by accumulating reserves outside of USD going forward, either from current account surpluses or assets sales such as US Treasury's mature.

 

[Conder101]

Huge sums could begin shifting from the dollar to the euro, although exactly how much will now be difficult to calculate since the Federal Reserve no longer publishes data on the M3 money supply, the data that tracks how many U.S. dollars are held by foreigners.

Interesting, I wonder why? Most US dollars are held by foreigners and now they have either stopped tracking it (or more likely) or just stopped reporting it. Why would they not want people to know that figure?

[World Colonial]

Huge sums could begin shifting from the dollar to the euro, although exactly how much will now be difficult to calculate since the Federal Reserve no longer publishes data on the M3 money supply, the data that tracks how many U.S. dollars are held by foreigners.

Interesting, I wonder why? Most US dollars are held by foreigners and now they have either stopped tracking it (or more likely) or just stopped reporting it. Why would they not want people to know that figure?

 

If you are confused, possibly it is because this comment is misleading. To my knowledge, it is true that the Fed no longer reports M3 and yes, the distribution of currency in circulation is part of M3, but it is not true to my knowledge that currency holdings are not reported if they were ever reported at all. Most likely, the Fed would not know and would have to estimate this number. Currency in circulation is also part of the monetary base, M1 and M2. It could be reported in any of those - or possibly not. In any event, what should be obvious is that someone has to own those dollars, the only thing that will change is their relative value and who owns them.

[Oldtrader3]

Monaco Holdings has been writing this mostly, self serving, propaganda ever since I can remember starting to read their sheet, they and Blanchard. Both have been predicting the complete failure of the American dollar since 1981. I can remember reading their predictions in the mid-'80's, when gold was about $550/oz that gold was going to $2000/oz in one year! I would take any metal predictions that Monaco and Blanchard write with a grain of salt!

[Frank Pentangeli-migration]

I like to keep things simple. It is also know that the simplest explanation is usually the most accurate. Inflation is simply defined as an increase in money supply for whatever the reason. So, since the dollar has lost 33% of its value since 2002, the profits I made from selling multiple coins on ebay which I bought in 2002 and 2003 is really non-existant. Paper money is one of the absolute worse investments someone can have. A person's savings could literally be worth only a fraction of its former value over night in the event of a crash or other economic shennanigans.

 

Why would I trade my old beautiful historic vintage one of a kind nostalgic collectibles for your little pieces of paper with dead presidents on them ?

 

 

[Oldtrader3]

I wouldn't myself, Frank.

[EZ_E]

I like to keep things simple. It is also know that the simplest explanation is usually the most accurate. Inflation is simply defined as an increase in money supply for whatever the reason. So, since the dollar has lost 33% of its value since 2002, the profits I made from selling multiple coins on ebay which I bought in 2002 and 2003 is really non-existant. Paper money is one of the absolute worse investments someone can have. A person's savings could literally be worth only a fraction of its former value over night in the event of a crash or other economic shennanigans.

 

Why would I trade my old beautiful historic vintage one of a kind nostalgic collectibles for your little pieces of paper with dead presidents on them ?

 

 

 

[physics-fan3.14]

To resurrect an old topic...

 

I was fortunate enough to just see this movie in the theaters. (We're talking about "The Counterfeiters", for those of you who got lost in all the other discussion ) I happened to check listings for Lafayette today, and lo and behold there it was. So I went to see it, and I must say it was pretty good. It had a dark feeling, being about Jews in the concentration camps, but it was a good story. Well worth checking out if you get the chance, or renting if it ever comes out on DVD.