Pros vs. Joes - Results are in!

[cpm9ball]

Fortunately, I didn't have to answer any silly questions about Victor's skirt size so that I could preserve this for my 6,000th post.

 

Here are the stats and a few observations:

 

1) Since I started this, silver has dropped to $17.48/oz. So, if this had been an actual purchase, only two of the respondents would have (potentially) realized a net profit if the sole purpose was to flip them immediately.

 

2) There were only 10 respondents. I had hoped that there would be more to make the results more meaningful.

 

3) Nobody specifically indicated that they were making their offer as a dealer, although one resondent made their offer in the form of a "short story" about a dealer in a dream which I found very amusing. In a way, it reminded me of a Jewish woman who had been a friend of our family for almost 50 years. Every time she came to visit from Miami, she would tell "stories" about the virtues of marriage, and how it was a shame that I was single. She always had a nice Jewish girl in mind for me.

 

4) The "storyteller" was the only one who made reference to the possibility that wear would affect the weight of some of the coins, and that offer was made taking this into consideration.

 

5) Some of the Morgans are heavily worn. Some have been cleaned (not by me), but some of them will actually grade XF/AU. Nobody asked if these were common dates, but they are.

 

6) Morgan dollars contain .77344 ounces of pure silver (ASW). At $20 per ounce, one Morgan would have a bullion value of $15.4688; 35 Morgans would amount to $541.468 or $541.47, but again, this does not take wear into consideration.

 

7) Here are the actual "offers":

 

$700.00 ($20.00 ea)

$630.00 ($18.00 ea)

$550.00 ($15.71 ea)

$550.00 ($15.71 ea)

$539.71 ($15.42 ea)

$525.00 ($15.00 ea)

$525.00 ($15.00 ea)

$483.33 ($13.81 ea)

$450.00 ($12.86 ea)

$420.00 ($12.00 ea)

 

8) The average of all 10 offers is $537.80 which is only $3.67 below melt value. If you throw out the highest and lowest offers, the average is still $531.63 which is only $9.84 below melt value. That is not very much of a profit, so I can only assume that the respondents were expecting the price of silver to continue to rise.

 

9) Four of the respondents made offers above the melt value, and six made offers below it. The respondent who came the closest to the actual melt value with a bid of $539.71 is only about 5c per coin below that amount.

 

This makes me wonder where each of the respondents might have expected to sell these coins. If they took them to a dealer, wouldn't most dealers make them an offer below CDN Bid? The latest Greysheet lists $1,000 bags of 90% Circs at $13,800 ($13.80 each if all were Morgans). If most any dealer offered just 10% below Bid, then only one of the resondents would have made a profit - but not much!

 

I hope you have enjoyed my little exercise, and perhaps it may give some of you cause to rethink your position.

 

By the way, there is one interesting side note that I discovered while going through these coins, but I will save that for post #6001.

 

Thanks for playing!

 

Chris

 

 

 

[jesbroken]

Chris,

HAPPY THOUSANDTH FATHOM OF POSTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for the fun little exercise. Interesting that silver happened to experience a 15% fall-did you arrange that? Cool Regardless.

Jim

[physics-fan3.14]

I saw the silver and gold plummet, now I just wish Visa would do the same so I can buy it for a reasonable price.

[EZ_E]

Fortunately, I didn't have to answer any silly questions about Victor's skirt size so that I could preserve this for my 6,000th post.

 

Said in a strong, Scottish accent:

 

[font:Comic Sans MS] I keep telling you its a kilt, man, not a skirt![/font]

[cpm9ball]

Fortunately, I didn't have to answer any silly questions about Victor's skirt size so that I could preserve this for my 6,000th post.

 

Said in a strong, Scottish accent:

 

[font:Comic Sans MS] I keep telling you its a kilt, man, not a skirt![/font]

 

Yeah, but just think of the (S-K-I-R-T) T-R-I-K-S you could turn.

 

Chris

[EZ_E]

What a mind, Chris. WoW!

 

OK, let's say it backwards--WoW!

[cpm9ball]

Let's see you say that with the exclamation point on the other end?

 

Chris

[jgrinz]

So the winners gets the 35 coins right ?

[jgrinz]

Let's see you say that with the exclamation point on the other end?

 

Chris

 

And UPSIDE DOWN!

 

[cpm9ball]

So the winners gets the 35 coins right ?

 

I already thanked everyone for playing. Geez! Isn't that enough?

 

Besides, one of them appears to be counterfeit.

 

Chris

 

 

 

 

[Revenant]

That is not very much of a profit, so I can only assume that the respondents were expecting the price of silver to continue to rise.

 

Actually no. I should have explained this but my bid was placed on the assumption that these were coins that I wanted to have and keep in my collection (possibly to add to a set of circulated morgans in an album?), not necessarily for immediate resale. Therefore the bid was designed just to offer a fair price on the coins (just a bit over melt).

[michael]

great poll with interesting results

 

keep them coming!!