How many collectors/investors are "buying the story"?

[BillJones]

No way.

 

The "W" mint mark as appeared on loads of not for circulation coins. Therefore the survival rates are very high. One could say that about the hoards of CC Morgan dollars. (Just kidding about the "not for circulation part, but it probably seemed like that to 19th century Americans since they didn't want them!) But most CC coin issues were circulated and circulated HARD. There are not a lot of high grade survivors out there for many CC issues.

[jackson64]

great thread e1..the advice and opinions at times almost sound like excerpts from David Bowers book "An Experts Guide to Collecting and Investing in coins"...................he has been warning for a while to avoid ridiculously priced PF70's...especially when PF69's can often be bought for less than bullion+ slab costs ( and most cannot tell the difference between a 69 & 70 anyhow).............coming from someone who has been involved with numismatics for 50+, his advice in his books has carried a lot of weight with me..

 

 

PS: I do wish that I had heeded one of his recommendations---he said " buy the key dates first"( when collecting a series)...the keys have a steady climb in value even when the common coins are stagnant because of demand...my buying the keys last has cost me some good money over the years as their values kept climbing...

[CHABSENTIA]

I was speaking of the Collectors themselves but was replying to the poster who mentioned the present generation of children who desires instant gratfication and doesn't have any respect for their Parents work ethics.

[CHABSENTIA]

Exactly. There was nothing given to my Brother and I unless we earned it. There was no car or $100.00 designer jeans or $200.00 Tennis shoes. I had in incident where I refused to buy my daughter a pair of designer jeans ann she cried to my Mother.

 

My mother told her " I can afford to pay that or more for a pair but there is no way I would pay $100.00 for a pair of jeans" and that was that.

 

I personally know of an Instance where a Family was living well and the the Mother wasn't working . The daughter turned 16 and wanted a car as her friends got one when they turned 16. The Mother went to work so the Family could afford to buy her a Car.

 

When I was 18 I had to but my own car and the onlt thing my Father did was cosign for me. Before then I could borrow the Family car,

 

 

 

[CHABSENTIA]

I mentioned this earlier but the next thing that is going to happen is that there will not be a ceiling on Wages for Social Security.All wages will be taxed at 14% which is 7% from the employer and 7% from the employee.

 

 

There will be people who for a number of reasons will have to sell their collections because of Financial problems and there will be people who paid inflated prices that will have to sell at a loss. These inflated prices can be a result of an overheated Market in any given area or no idea of FMV or a combination of both,

 

 

We are already in a recession. I mentioned the possibilty lasy year in ine of the forums here mostly because of the action of the FED and the Historical Significance of it which started with an Extreme Credit loosening by Greenspan and an excessive Credit tightening by Bernake as well as other factore.

 

 

Sometimes you can delay an event but this only results in the Economy getting sicker such as alleviating the sickness of a patient by getting rid of the symptoms through OTC medicine but not curing the sickness through the use of Antibiotics and the patient eventually gets much worse.

 

 

[CHABSENTIA]

I see one exception in the Moderns and it is the 2006 Reverse Proof. It is the only time in History that I am aware where a Reverse Proof has ever been produced and is therefore one of a kind.

[Coin]

You know , in a micro-cosmic kind of way , buying coins or anything for that matter is kinda like that:

 

When I was 18 I had to but my own car and the onlt thing my Father did was cosign for me. Before then I could borrow the Family car,

 

Any coin purchase , market and financial conditions included , is only as gratifying if I can feel good about both before and after the transaction . If it was earned ,affordable , and 'problem free' ...we are more apt to enjoy the fruits of the labor/acquisition .

If we pay more than the coin will ever be worth to the extent that we can not afford to keep it or it causes financial strain that would prevent us from responsibilities like providing for our families or future ...what kind of enjoyment other than resentment would that coin provide?

Purchased 'right' , there could be years of pride and enjoyment of ownership ( even as some has said - to pass down to heirs ) .

The more affluent collectors that buy the 'right' coin that they desire for their legacy set ( their creation) go in knowing that the deal is right for them .

 

The danger lies in a purchase that someone with limited information makes , with limited funds , and an expectation that may be unrealistic as to future returns , without a true ( or at least better than halfway decent) understanding of the market , under the misguided advice of experts that only want to sell and sell , with the end result being that person not getting the 'instant gratification'....only a sour taste of reality . Sure they could get lucky and score , but it seems that rather get in and get out with a profit , they just keep going back for more until their heads are so far underwater they need to start sprouting gills ....they will definitly be in trouble when the market conditions change .

It has taken me years to get my half dollar proof set where it is now , a lot of working many days off for the over-time , so I understand what your saying and still agree that it just seems insane how the hype has gotten some of the prices (speculations?) on moderns so far out there . Just makes you both wonder and hope that the buyers know what they are doing .

[Dcoin]

In another 50 years from now, the W mintmark may approach the collectability of the CC mintmark----stay tuned.

 

Only if it has a sticker on it

[World Colonial]

I see one exception in the Moderns and it is the 2006 Reverse Proof. It is the only time in History that I am aware where a Reverse Proof has ever been produced and is therefore one of a kind.

 

What exactly is the mintage on these pieces? I do not have a recent Redbook or any other source to verify the mintage. But I did perform an internet search and what came back was this :

 

$50 gold American Eagle 10,000

$1 ASE 250,000

 

If these mintages are actually correct or remotely correct, not only are neither of these coins "rare', they are as common as the sand on the beach.

 

Not trying to give you a hard time, but its not exactly like these coins are going to be hard to find, regardless of what absurd prices they may or may not require to buy them.

 

I'll acknowledge that they should command some premium as a novelty, but this is also more of a marketing gimmick than a coin issue of significance.

 

Teletrade lists three sales in December 2007 for a PCGS PR-70 at about $500 and there are also a few specimens that sold for "only" $120. Just as I did for the 1995-W, here are some items you can buy for $500:

 

US coins:

 

Any of the proof Barber coins in a lower to mid grade (I believe up to 63/64 depending upon the issue);

Several proof IHC;

Uncirculated Liberty Seated coinage

 

World coins:

 

The 1937 14 piece UK coronation proof set (excluding gold) probably costs slightly more;

An AU or mint state Peru Pillar 1/2 or 1 real (if you can actually find one) or the same issues from Mexico;

Mint state 19th century world crown from South America, Europe or Japan. One or more depending upon the issue;

 

I also did a check on Heritage for the 1995-W for recent sales. The prices ranged from $4000 to about $6000 for a PR-69. This is even more ridiculous than I thought. The PR-70 must be a $20,000 coin or maybe even more.

 

 

[just-john]

In 50 years that same amount $15,000 in todays money put into CC Morgan's will be so far ahead of the W mint marked eagles. The person who spent that $15,000 will be cutting his or her wrist when they look back.Good news in 50 yrs that will be the monthly phone bill

and coins in circulation will be gone over 24yrs.With the counterfeits getting so good and easy to make with the computer cnc engraved dies coins will have to go.Now their counterfeiting 2 EURO coins National Central Banks but also in commercial banks and other financial institutions found 378,000 counterfeit coins from circulation.Since the introduction of the euro

currency in 2002, twelve illegal mints have been dismantled: seven in Italy and one

in each of Portugal, Spain, Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria and seized 553,000 coins

 

. Greater efforts to detect circulating counterfeits read where China had problems with counterfeiting to the tune of over 570 million dollars

 

look at .forgerynetwork.com and just pick a country

[BillJones]

I see one exception in the Moderns and it is the 2006 Reverse Proof. It is the only time in History that I am aware where a Reverse Proof has ever been produced and is therefore one of a kind.

 

The Canadian mint made reverse Proof coins years before the U.S. versions were sold to collectors.

 

The way things are going at the U.S. mint, more reverse Proofs will be issued. The mint has now become a "profit engine," and it will continue to issue more and more coins so long and long after collectors are willing to buy them.

[CHABSENTIA]

I missed out on the 1995 W. I bought the 20th Anniversary in 2006 from the U.S.Mint for about $100.00 I didn't want to miss out again and it differed from others wih the Reverse Proof.So we are looking at an average of about $34.00 per coin.

 

I sent the Reverse Proof into NGC and it came back a PF70. I havent watched the prices but I have never seen a Reverse proof in PF69 go for $120.00 let alone in PF70.

 

The cheapest I have seen a Reverse Proof go for in PF69 is abour $260.00. I will admit that I don't follow them anymore.

 

I am on the Morgans now and I did pick up a 1880S MS65 PL in a NGC Holder for $170.00 which includes shipping. The cheapest I have seen this one go for is about $260.00.

 

I don't look on it as a Novelty.There are a lot of areas out there. After the Morgans I will look at my Proof sets from 1968 and Mint sets from 1970. I also have a about four tubes of Mercury and Roosevelt dimes as well as about 500 wheat penniesI have a Dansco album of Kennedys and also one of most of the Peace Dollar Dates. Why would I want to go into a completely different area of World Coins where I have little knowledge before I figure out what I want to do with the others.

 

A few months ago I submitted a raw 1880s and it came back from NGC as a MS64 vam11. I discovered that in a regular registry that I get 135 points for it but in the hot 50 Registry I get 272 points so maybe I will look at expanding more in the HOT 50.

 

I don't have a 1995 W and would not consider spending that much for it. I don't think I will lose much on the Reverse Proof having purchased it for an average of $34.00.

[CHABSENTIA]

I don't collect Canadian coins but I do believe that I heard something about it when the Reverse Proof came out.I was speaking only of U.S.Coins.

 

While it is true that the U.S. Mint has evolved into a Profit Engine there is also a bunch of snake Oil salesmen out there. I can remember all last year when they were pitching the 2007 W in comparison to the 2006 W and that they thought even less of the 2007 W would be produced than the 2006W etc etc.

 

Even now they are talking about the only time that a W mintmark has been used on an Uncirculated coin was the 2006W and 2007W in order to market them.

 

Nobody can predict the Future. There can be no guarantee that another Reverse Proof will be produced and even if this is the case there is no guarantee what Modern Coin will get the designation. Doesnt have to be the A.S.E.. The chances are against it because the U.S. mint is looked on as a Profit engine.

 

Therefore the Reverse proof would probably be used in another denomination so as to market it as one of a kind in that denomination.

[World Colonial]

I agree that those who bought the 2006 Reverse Proof at issue have little downside risk.

 

But the reaosn I made those comparisons is to illustrate what absurd prices this coin and the 1995-W bring TODAY and they are not alone. But yes, each one of us should collect what we like or can afford to buy.

 

However, the relative value between coins such as this and especially world coins of the type I mentoned is undeniable.

 

In many posts on other threads, both of us have commented on other economic topics such as the stock market. Well, to use a stock market analogy, selective world coin series are the "emerging markets" of today, though it will be necessary to discriminate carefully among them because 95% of them or more are also almost certainly dead money and are not going anywhere.

 

The US coin market is by far the most developed and penetrated coin market from a financial standpoint. Its the only real "investor" market out there though I see some signs of this changing (such as for the UK, Australia, Canada, and South Africa) as practices like slabbing become more prevelant.

 

Rare and desirable US coins will always be in demand and as long the government continues to debase the currency, will probably continue to appreciate.

But from a financial standpoint, the potential for appreciation is much greater for these foreign issues.

 

Many of them are much scacer and much cheaper, especially in high grade, so even a small increase in demand can push their prices up substantially. The increasing affluance of other countries should also lead to larger numbers of collectors and I also expect the US marketing practices to be copied over time in these other countries.

 

If a rank of the 100 or 1000 most valuable coins were to be made, the majority in the top 100 would be US coins (maybe up to 75 of them or even more) and probably over half of the top 1000. That's not a situation I see as permanent.

[Mozin]

I have no interest in collecting moderns, because I feel they are too available and already overpriced. They are also so uniformly made that they lack character.

 

For the Busties I want to add to my collection, most of them currently cost $700 or more. I believe there are an increasing number of collectors wanting the same AU and better Busties. These collectors appear to have lots of money, so the prices continue to jump higher. As the baby boomers retire, I expect Bustie prices in most all grades to escalate further for decades.

 

Classic Commemoratives seem to have a long ways to go before again reaching their highs from around 1989. The collector base does not seem sufficient to again reach those old highs in the next decade. Of course, if the US inflation is runaway, anything is possible. If some of the baby boomers decide they want this set, maybe we will see some small price increases.

[CHABSENTIA]

I would not pay the money for either the 1995 W or the reverse proof today. I have a Subscription to the Proof and Mint sets as well as the Moderns just to keep up to date. I sent in my 2008 Proof .A.S.E. and got a PF69. I will not buy a PF70. The money is ridiculous I will not purchase a MS70 2008. The Prices are also ridiculous. They came out at $349.00 and the snake oil salesmen on T.V. are still selling them for $299.00 There are probably peole paying it even though they could get one on EBAY for $160.00.

 

So the Market exists for these rdiculous prices as long as people are willing to pay it.

 

I know little about World Coindsbut could probably learn. Meanwhile I still have other coins to sort out and catalogue

[carson city]

There aren't any absurb prices, only absurb buyer's paying those absurb prices ! J,P, Morgan

[CHABSENTIA]

I was just looking at the Financial news and they were talking about the things people are starting to forego because of the Economy.

 

1. One Woman has stopped buying her mucho costa latte at Starbucks and is making coffee at home with a certain sweetner to make it taste similar.

2. A guy is foregoing his $1.29 bottle of Evian water.

3 Another is cutting down their visits to McDonalds fron 8 visits a week to one or two.

4. Others have stopped going to the Movies and are subscribing to Netflix.

5. ETC.

 

I find it amazing that people would find these things to be necessary in the first place.

[BECOKA]

For the longest time I was getting calls from coin brokers trying to sell me Indian gold saying it was the next hot item giving all kinds of hoopla to make them attractive.

 

It turns out for a couple years prior several of these coin brokers were quietly buying everything in sight for this series.

 

Prices went way up and now they have moved on and the prices of come down quite a bit.

 

What goes up must come down and I think even the rich will take a slight loss or break even at some point with the classic rarities.

 

No comment on modern coins. There is a difference between a modern rarity such as the cheerios Sac and a modern coin with millions minted.

[World Colonial]

I like the Capped Bust half very much and though I do not own any now, it was my favorite coin as a kid.

 

From this venue and the existence of the Bust Half Nut Club, I know somewhat that the series is very popular and I believe it will remain so. But when it comes to price performance, I do not know because I consider it an open question how many of these exist and in what grades. My opinion is that a lot of them still exist, though it is a tiny fraction of the original mintage and only a small fraction of those are in high grade.

 

From what I know, I consider this primarily or possibly exclusively a collector as opposed to an investor series. That's probably better from a long term stability standpoint but it also limits the financial performance.

 

As for the impact of the baby boomers, that can be a positive or negative. Much conventional wisdom about the financial impact of the baby boomers is pure mythology as far as I am concerned.

[Larry Dreher]

 

In many posts on other threads, both of us have commented on other economic topics such as the stock market. Well, to use a stock market analogy, selective world coin series are the "emerging markets" of today, though it will be necessary to discriminate carefully among them because 95% of them or more are also almost certainly dead money and are not going anywhere.

 

The US coin market is by far the most developed and penetrated coin market from a financial standpoint. Its the only real "investor" market out there though I see some signs of this changing (such as for the UK, Australia, Canada, and South Africa) as practices like slabbing become more prevelant.

 

Rare and desirable US coins will always be in demand and as long the government continues to debase the currency, will probably continue to appreciate.

But from a financial standpoint, the potential for appreciation is much greater for these foreign issues.

 

Many of them are much scacer and much cheaper, especially in high grade, so even a small increase in demand can push their prices up substantially. The increasing affluance of other countries should also lead to larger numbers of collectors and I also expect the US marketing practices to be copied over time in these other countries.

 

If a rank of the 100 or 1000 most valuable coins were to be made, the majority in the top 100 would be US coins (maybe up to 75 of them or even more) and probably over half of the top 1000. That's not a situation I see as permanent.

 

I couldn't agree more. I've alway's been a modern collector but decided several years ago to concentrate on the Chinese panda series. I've since sold all my US commems, proofs, eagles, etc.

 

While the Panda series is still modern, the mintages on some of the coins is amazingly low. Some of the gold proofs were issued with mntages in the 2000 range. With the billions of people in China, it's not a stetch to thnk that there will be hundreds of thousands of domestic Panda collectors some day. Until 2000, it was illegal for the average Chinese person to own gold or silver so the market in China for owning these coins is less than 10 years old.

 

Some of these coins are still surprisingly affordable. The 1996 Proof Silver 1 ounce panda had a mintage of 8000 and sells for approximately $200.

[World Colonial]

The Panda series are not one I have in mind but I will agree that they are an exception to the rule. They are attractive issues - I cannot deny that - and in addition to the potential demand form China, they are also one of the few series that actually have global demand.

 

Though US coins have greater overall demand which is why their prices are higher, I do not believe that many collectors who are not Americans collect them or at least do so for the more expensive issues. (Perhaps there is an exception for Canda since it is on the border.)

 

 

The South Africa ZAR issues that I collect have a similar profile. In buying on eBay, I have noticed that collectors are located all over the world.

[shirohniichan]

Cladking has made the point numerous times that modern circulation coins have a low survival rate in high MS grades. I have seen this when trying to buy Canadian nickel dollars. It is so hard to tell the difference between a collector "prooflike" coin and a business strike since both are struck with mirrored fields that many "MS-65" coins are really PL-65. The PLs are a dime a dozen, and even a few years ago I bought a number at near face value. True MS65+ coins are fairly scarce because 1) few people saved rolls of the coins, and 2) demand has been low enough that few people cherrypick existing bags or rolls to find the best ones.

 

Will these coins be worth moon money in the coming years? They will definitely be worth more than PL coins in the same numerical grade, but somehow I have a hard time imagining Canadian collectors paying so high a price when the PLs are available as cheap substitutes. Those who buy the story that the coins are scarce, collectors will move in droves to the Canadian market as they are priced out of the US coin market, and therefore modern Canadian coins will necessarily skyrocket may end up in trouble. Sure, they could go up really high. On the other hand, those who moved into the Canadian coin market when they got priced out of the US market may move elsewhere.

 

There are lots of stories out there. The key is to look for possibilities of other endings (they're not all happy).

[World Colonial]

If by any chance you were commenting on my comment about Canada in my last post here, what I really meant is that maybe some Canadians also are serious collectors of US coins. It is pure speculation on my part.

 

When it comes to moderns, I've had a few friendy exchanges with some members of this board about moderns and their rarity. I have little to no knowledge about their quality distribution but I simply do not believe that any of the US issues are really rare, except as conditional rarities. My reason for this is that "rare" is a relative terms and by my standards, most coins that others consider or might consider rare are not that rare or even really scarce at all because if they were, it would not be so easy to find them.

 

When I hear someone talk about a US coin in the sense of being rare, it is really almost always about conditional rarity, availability in a particular but high grade, or a subjective factor such as eye appeal. It is almost never a question of whether the coin is available at all which is the case for many of the coins I buy if you are talking about any kind of quality that is even worth buying at all.

 

On your question of the prooflikes. I do not know whether most collectors consider them substitutes for business strikes or not. The South Africa Union series that I collect issued them for Crowns from 1947-1960. The mintages are low but the survival rate is probably high enough to make them an option as a busines strike substitute. In this case, I would defintely rather buy the business strikes because the survival rate in high grade, especially premium high grade, is much lower than either the proofs or PL.

 

When it comes to pricing, I consider the parabolical prices paid for ultra high grades or the highest grades to be absurd. And I am not limiting this to modern US coins but to all coins though US coins are the most expensive and (in my opinion) overpriced. When a legendary coin such as the 1822 Half Eagle (which I believe has one example in private hands that is a VF-30) sells for less or is valued for less than many other less rare and much less prominent coins just because they are super grades, that is just crazy to me.