Lemmings and predators across the street

[BillJones]

Last night I wondered over to across the street for the first time in while. I’ve been on a self imposed semi-exile after they expelled a number of people from the site whom I admire for their knowledge and honesty. Still when things are a little slow here, I go back to look at what’s happening over there. Sadly one axiom seemed to be firmly ingrained at Collectors’ Universe:

 

"It is impossible to overpay for anything. "

 

That’s right, no matter how high the price gets, it's perfectly justified, and anyone who even suggests that $100,000 is too much to pay for a 1909-VDB Matte Proof cent is obviously uninformed, behind the times and probably sinister. Why paying that is perfectly rational because someone paid $225,000 for a 1909-S-VDB in MS-67, Red. Therefore paying $100 grand for its Matte Proof cousin is perfectly logical and probably a great investment.

 

To put things in perspective, the price guide that NGC uses for registry coins sets the price of my type set at around $360,000. That includes a Chain Cent, a 1796 Quarter both in VF and a number of 19th and early 20th century Proof coins in grades ranging from PR-64 to PR-67. Addition the collection is 93% complete with all the coins in strong collector or “specialist level” grades as Dave Bowers puts it in his type coin guide book. Yet one 1909-VDB cent, which is very scarce, but certainly not rare, is worth almost a third of what of my type collection is worth.

 

It sounds illogical to me, but then again what do I know?

 

Here's the link:

 

Matte Proof Lincoln cents are hot

 

[IGWT]

Bill - You've lived long enough to know that people will believe what they want to believe. In fact, that's largely what markets are made of.

[jgrinz]

If Anyone missed it COIN .. issued a nice definition for the term KOOL AID DRINKER which applies to this thread hehehe

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=2156378&Main=116271#Post2156378

 

 

[BillJones]

Bill - You've lived long enough to know that people will believe what they want to believe. In fact, that's largely what markets are made of.

 

Well someone needs to draw the line or put out the warning. The argument that it's only "market behavior" did not justify ignoring the mortgage mess that the financial markets a facing right now. I know that we are only talking about coins, but market crashes have not been good for this hobby in the past, and the behavior of these lemmings and Kool Aid drinkers will lead to a big correction eventually.

[MarkFeld]

Bill, I agree with part of what you said, but must take issue with your comment below :

Yet one 1909-VDB cent, which is very scarce, but certainly not rare...

When speaking of a PR66RD 1909-VDB cent, we are indeed dealing with a legitimately rare coin and state of preservation. I think your characterization of it was inaccurate, regardless of how many uncirculated (or even to some extent, lower grade Proof) examples exist.

 

That said, a six figure price still sounds high to me, just as many other stratospheric prices I have seen coins bring the past several years, have made me cringe. When prices are strong, it's often difficult to remember that things were very different/worse in the past and/or consider that they might very well be different/worse in the future.

[MBA101]

Someone who can afford to pay 100K for one single coin can also afford to lose 100K. Maybe some who blow this sort of money in such a crazy fashion are thinking investment, but I think that many who do this sort of thing have so much money lying around that they don't know what to do with it and just simply want the coin for bragging rights and don't really care if the price drops or goes up.

[James_OldeTowne]

At the risk of sounding like a jerk, this kind of "conditional rarity" is garbage to me. I can't imagine any sane person paying $100,000 for a proof Lincoln of any kind. This kind of nonsense really tarnishes the hobby for me, and that's especially true because the "grade" is 95% responsible for the nonsense.

 

[BillJones]

I agree with you, James. This "condition rarity" stuff gets out of hand when it applies to coins that are pretty common. For example did someone really pay $225,000 for a 1909-S-VDB in MS-67, Red. If they did, that's just plain foolish. Even the hype masters who write the auction catelogs have to admit that there is nothing rare about a 1909-S-VDB.

 

A super grade can carry you only so far, the PCGS registry if the prime driver of most of the foolishness.

[IGWT]

Bill - You've lived long enough to know that people will believe what they want to believe. In fact, that's largely what markets are made of.

 

Well someone needs to draw the line or put out the warning. The argument that it's only "market behavior" did not justify ignoring the mortgage mess that the financial markets a facing right now. I know that we are only talking about coins, but market crashes have not been good for this hobby in the past, and the behavior of these lemmings and Kool Aid drinkers will lead to a big correction eventually.

 

I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying that posting a warning on the PCGS boards is like wading into the ocean to stem the tide.

[BillJones]

I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying that posting a warning on the PCGS boards is like wading into the ocean to stem the tide.

 

We can certainly agree on your point about the PCGS boards. (thumbs u The lemmings and the predators who prey on them are in a league of their own. The lemmings run toward the ocean, and the predators cheer them on across the street.

[just-john]

When I'M in a B&M coin shop and see price tags saying $100,000.00 not claims on shillbay where people trade things back and forth just to take in suckers if at anytime you think that the price for a given coin in a given grade seems real high it Very likely is.

Man sometimes I have to catch myself thinking i have bill gates money.Take that high priced coin into any BM store and try to get $100,000.00.00 and the reality will become visible

to your clouded mind

That kind on money could be spent so many better way and the buyer would feel it was well spent in the end

[DirtyGoldMan]

Bill,

 

While I agree with your point and have myself gone after the "promoters" of these in that and other threads, I believe that it is unfair to vilify the entire forum community for the actions of a few. You bring a lot to the table, way more than most, but offensive posts like these (belittling and name calling) limit the effectiveness of your message, IMO.

 

RYK

[BillJones]

I am tired of criticisms like this where people feel that I have spend ten words in every sentence to couch my opinions so that it does not offend someone. Of course the entire Collectors’ Universe board is NOT made up of lemmings and predators, but they have more than their share. And predators over there are among the most vocal.

 

When I was posting across the street on a regular basis, EVERY TIME I made a comment about the price of some incredibly common modern coin are sold for too much money, the marketers/predators came down on me like a ton of bricks. There was virtually no one over there who spoke up to support my position. Even a simple truism, like “It’s possible to over pay for anything,” was denied. According them it is impossible to ever overpay for a modern coin, although “the classic coin market” was full of bad deals. (I would not argue that last point.) Oddly enough one of the few who agreed with me was Laura (a.k.a Legend Numismatics) although she would never do so in the same thread where I had made the comment.

 

It was always the same people who headed up these attacks. They were the sellers of these coins who stood to make a lot of money from those sales, and to a lesser extent, their customers. Their attacks seldom included evidence to support their position. The main points they made were personal. “He’s an old time collector who doesn’t know what he’s taking about …. He’s not competent to pass judgment on ANY area of the market …. He doesn’t even know what he’s talking about when it comes to “classic coins.” In short their goal was invalidate my credentials to defend their actions. That’s what I would call “a predator.”

 

I never made comments with the intent to damage someone’s business. My intention has always been to warn new collectors away from making costly mistakes that might prompt them to leave the hobby. As I young collector I got burned on set of BU Franklin half dollars. The coins that were supposed to have been “Select BU” when I bought them turned into “bottom of the BU roll coins” when I tired to sell them. In the end I had spent $325 on the set and got only $110 back. I had similar experiences with modern Proof sets from the 1960s. Stuff like that can drive some people from the hobby. And today the stakes are higher.

 

No one can protect collectors from changes in the market. But they give advice when prices have gotten too high for some items. This is especially important for items like very high grade, very high priced modern coins where the market is thin, and the available price information is scant. People need to know when they pay thousands of dollars for such coins that they are in a very small segment of the numismatic market. They need to know that there are thousands of dealers and collectors who think they are taking some wrong terms. If after hearing the evidence, they decide to pay high prices for very common modern coins, that will be their business. But a least they will have been warned.

 

[MikeInFL]

Bill,

 

I think your heart is in the right place, and I commend you on trying to educate those with less experience from the pitfalls of numismatics. Personally, I have learned a great deal from your posts here and ATS, and I truly appreciate all you add to these forums.

 

That said, and in my opinion, RYK's criticisms of your post are fair.

 

While it is true that the PCGS forums have a great number of both predators and lemmings and PCGS's censorship policy reinforces this, they hardly have a corner on the predators and lemming market, and you risk losing the reader when you paint any forum with such a broad brush.

 

Said a bit differently, you can make your argument even more effective if you just lose the anti-ATS slant. It doesn't add anything, and you only make your own arguments less effective in so doing.

 

As for the MPL market... It seems to me that there are a great number of new collectors who have been attracted to these coins in the last year or two. They have a lot of money, and generally not a lot of experience -- which is a recipe for disaster -- and it will be interesting to see their reactions when prices on these coins come back down (or they realize many of them are cleaned AT coins). Hopefully they will have listened to the warnings of yourself and others, but I suspect they'll have to learn for themselves.

 

Respectfully...Mike

[BillJones]

What is ATS?

[DC Dawg]

What is ATS?

Across The Street... referring to the "other" forum boards.

 

Scott

[BillJones]

Said a bit differently, you can make your argument even more effective if you just lose the anti-ATS slant. It doesn't add anything, and you only make your own arguments less effective in so doing.

 

There are a lot of things not to like “ATS.” Their censorship policy gets real old real fast. It’s no fun if you constantly have to watch you back every time you write something less than complementary about a PCGS product. Their motto has become, “Don’t bring me any bad news, even if it is the truth. And don’t ever criticize the PCSG product because after all it’s a privilege for you to be here.”

 

The way they kicked people off that site, who contributed a great deal to it, was totally unfair. One of their censors really gets under my skin. If it is true that he is unpaid and merely does what it does for the fun it, it's the kind of "volunteer" I can't stand. I’d call him a toady.

 

And there are those who justify selling high grade modern coins to inexperienced collectors for outrageous prices who engage in personal attacks against anyone who questions them on it. About the only advantage that “ATS” has to this site is that there are more members, and that translates into larger, faster moving exchanges of messages.

 

We don’t have much of predator problem here, and I think that is related to the nature of modern coins in NGC slabs. The home shopping outfits use NGC products to market some of those coins, which I think is unfortunate. But at least a new collector does not get totally buried to the tune of thousands of dollars for one coin.

 

I never “got the can” across the street for reasons I never understood, but I have curtailed my activity over there despite the fact that I reached the 10,000 post mark. It’s just no fun to participate in an atmosphere where intimidation plays such a large role.

 

[MikeInFL]

I agree 100%, Bill. Furthermore, I no longer post over there over the very same censorship/banning policy you criticize. It is undefendable and sickening.

 

However, your argument would be better received by myself (and others I suspect) if you wouldn't paint the forum with such a broad brush. There are plenty of folks, yourself included, who have vaulable contributions to make and are members of the community ATS, and by making such statements you are throwing the baby out with the bathwater, so to speak.

 

Example, you said the following:

 

Sadly one axiom seemed to be firmly ingrained at Collectors’ Universe: "It is impossible to overpay for anything. "

That's just not a fair or accurate statement. When you make a patently inaccurate statement such as the above, your objectivity is (rightfully) questioned, as are the rest of your conclusions (even if they are 100% correct, as they are in my opinion). Which was, I believe, the point RYK was making, and the point I am trying to make.

 

Respectfully submitted....Mike

[BillJones]

Sadly one axiom seemed to be firmly ingrained at Collectors’ Universe:

 

"It is impossible to overpay for anything. "

 

 

That's just not a fair or accurate statement. When you make a patently inaccurate statement such as the above, your objectivity is questioned, as are the rest of your conclusions (even if they are 100% correct, as they are in my opinion

 

How is that unfair? When I made the state NOT ONE person agreed with me over there UNTIL recently. And what convinced them?

 

The recent housing and mortage lending mess.

 

At least now people can see that you CAN to too much for anything. And right now some aspects this coin market are gettting out of control. Are you ready to pay $100,000 for a 1909-VDB Matte Proof Lincoln in PR-67, Red? Folks over there are calling for OTHER people to do it.

[MikeInFL]

Bill,

 

It is unfair because you infer that everyone ATS agrees. That is simply not the case, and please don't confuse a lack of public support with your position with a lack of agreement. We all know that people are much more likely to respond to posts they disagree with than those they agree with (myself included!).

 

To answer your question directly, no, I would never spend that kind of money for a top-pop MPL. In fact, I've given up on the MPL series entirely because of the large number of doctored coins, market manipulation, and (at the risk of painting things with too broad a brush) noobs, complete with blatantly AT MPL avatars and lots of money being sucked in and pushing up the prices.

 

Also, look at the experience level and personal financial interest (collecters and dealers) of those calling for spending that kind of money, and you will understand why they are responding the way that they have -- it is self-interest, plain and simple, and I'm sure you understand that.

 

All that said, and this is really the point I was trying to make: You can show that there is such a thing as overpaying for a coin without using all of the anti-PCGS rhetoric -- and when using such language you lose your objectivity to the causual reader as it seems like your goal is to grind an axe not educate the inexperienced.

 

Thank you for your consideration...Mike

[MAULEMALL]

I Personally took it a different way, More like the personnel at the helm of the board ATS are the ones who make that particular sentiment prevalent and to be honest I have to say I agree with Bill.

 

To be honest it is the only way they have gotten any submissions at all in my opinion..

 

[MikeInFL]

Fair enough, and in large part I would agree with you that the censorship policy causes much of what you see/read ATS.

 

However, to suggest that forum censorship truly drives submission revenue is just not right in my opinoin. Not only do those who read the PCGS forums only represent a small percentage of submitters, but I would argue PCGS' reputation in the marketplace (i.e. sales prices) is what is driving submissions.

 

Now you could argue that the predatory policies at PCGS and their censorship policies on the forums do affect things, and I would agree, but to suggest that it is even a primary driver would be a mistake, in my opinion.

 

Respectfully.....Mike

[Frank Provasek]

Don't pay big money for a slabbed coin if you would SPEND the same coin if it was XF.