• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

If the TPG's are so infallable...

Started by Tradedollarnut,

45 posts in this topic

MarkFeld

MarkFeld

Posted
Posted
They are taking the risk of getting stuck with bad coins at costs which are too high if/when their bids get hit.

 

It will be interesting to see the sight-unseen bid levels for CAC-stickered slabs compared to both (1) sight-unseen bid levels for unstickered slabs, and (2) sight-seen bid levels. In any event, won't a dealer who buys the "bad" coin sight-unseen simply dump it at auction, where some collector will spot the coveted green sticker and bid accordingly, i.e., at some level above the sight-unseen bid? Is there really all that much risk for affilliated dealers?

If the number and value of such coins is relatively small, there's not much risk. If, on the other hand the value is large, I believe there's considerable risk, in terms of dollars and reputation.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MikeInFL

MikeInFL

Posted
Posted
The reasonable response here is “so what?”

 

Ya hear that, Mark - 'so what' that your TPG certified 1945 merc dime you bought off ebay didn't have full bands. lol!

 

So you're saying that if that coin got stickered - lets call it a "mechanical error" - that CAC would have been happy to buy it back at Full Bands price, even if it were an obvious clerical error?

 

If I have anything to say about it - absolutely. That's what 'sight unseen' bid means. A guarantee isn't worth much if you can weasel out of it by claiming 'mechanical error'.

 

BINGO!!!!!!!

 

Another point is that PCGS (gasp) doesn't use its published price guides when and if comes down to a settlement.

 

At least to me, the CAC has the better position. However, the devil is in the details, and as far as I'm concerend it's too early to judge how effective these mechanisms will be. In theory however, they are clearly superior to the TPGs in this regard....Mike

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bsshog40

bsshog40

Posted
Posted

Well it may not be long before we have another company that will pop up to verify authenticity of CAC stickers. If the stickers start bringing premium to the coins, then someone will surely be creating there own counterfeit stickers for slabs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
IGWT

IGWT

Posted
Posted
They are taking the risk of getting stuck with bad coins at costs which are too high if/when their bids get hit.

 

It will be interesting to see the sight-unseen bid levels for CAC-stickered slabs compared to both (1) sight-unseen bid levels for unstickered slabs, and (2) sight-seen bid levels. In any event, won't a dealer who buys the "bad" coin sight-unseen simply dump it at auction, where some collector will spot the coveted green sticker and bid accordingly, i.e., at some level above the sight-unseen bid? Is there really all that much risk for affilliated dealers?

If the number and value of such coins is relatively small, there's not much risk. If, on the other hand the value is large, I believe there's considerable risk, in terms of dollars and reputation.

 

Do you really expect coins with "large" values to trade sight-unseen? What obligates an affiliated dealer to place sight-unseen bids? You don't buy coins for your customers that way, do you, Mark? And, even if you were to start stocking inventory with sight-unseen purchases, wouldn't your sight-unseen bids for those stickered coins likely be lower than what you'd offer sight-seen for the kind of coins you like carry (regardless of whether or not they're stickered)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MarkFeld

MarkFeld

Posted
Posted
They are taking the risk of getting stuck with bad coins at costs which are too high if/when their bids get hit.

 

It will be interesting to see the sight-unseen bid levels for CAC-stickered slabs compared to both (1) sight-unseen bid levels for unstickered slabs, and (2) sight-seen bid levels. In any event, won't a dealer who buys the "bad" coin sight-unseen simply dump it at auction, where some collector will spot the coveted green sticker and bid accordingly, i.e., at some level above the sight-unseen bid? Is there really all that much risk for affilliated dealers?

If the number and value of such coins is relatively small, there's not much risk. If, on the other hand the value is large, I believe there's considerable risk, in terms of dollars and reputation.

 

Do you really expect coins with "large" values to trade sight-unseen? What obligates an affiliated dealer to place sight-unseen bids? You don't buy coins for your customers that way, do you, Mark? And, even if you were to start stocking inventory with sight-unseen purchases, wouldn't your sight-unseen bids for those stickered coins likely be lower than what you'd offer sight-seen for the kind of coins you like carry (regardless of whether or not they're stickered)?

Lou, I do expect "large" values to trade sight unseen but time will tell. You're a good guesser - no, I don't buy coins for my clients that way. ;)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IGWT

IGWT

Posted
Posted
Do you really expect coins with "large" values to trade sight-unseen? What obligates an affiliated dealer to place sight-unseen bids? You don't buy coins for your customers that way, do you, Mark? And, even if you were to start stocking inventory with sight-unseen purchases, wouldn't your sight-unseen bids for those stickered coins likely be lower than what you'd offer sight-seen for the kind of coins you like carry (regardless of whether or not they're stickered)?
Lou, I do expect "large" values to trade sight unseen but time will tell. You're a good guesser - no, I don't buy coins for my clients that way. ;)

 

I'm not sure that I understand your answer to my first question. I was asking about individual coins with significant numismatic and monetary value, and your answer refers to "'large' values," suggesting bulk purchases of generic Saints. You didn't answer my second or my fourth questions. I'm not trying to be difficult, I'm just trying to figure out how the CAC enterprise will work (or at least how it's intended to work) and whether I (and all the other collectors in my position) should be pleased, upset, or indifferent.

 

I just don't get it. And I doubt that I'm the only one. CAC is leaving a lot unsaid, and I sense skepticism turning to cyncism on the part of many collectors.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MarkFeld

MarkFeld

Posted
Posted
Do you really expect coins with "large" values to trade sight-unseen? What obligates an affiliated dealer to place sight-unseen bids? You don't buy coins for your customers that way, do you, Mark? And, even if you were to start stocking inventory with sight-unseen purchases, wouldn't your sight-unseen bids for those stickered coins likely be lower than what you'd offer sight-seen for the kind of coins you like carry (regardless of whether or not they're stickered)?
Lou, I do expect "large" values to trade sight unseen but time will tell. You're a good guesser - no, I don't buy coins for my clients that way. ;)

 

I'm not sure that I understand your answer to my first question. I was asking about individual coins with significant numismatic and monetary value, and your answer refers to "'large' values," suggesting bulk purchases of generic Saints. You didn't answer my second or my fourth questions. I'm not trying to be difficult, I'm just trying to figure out how the CAC enterprise will work (or at least how it's intended to work) and whether I (and all the other collectors in my position) should be pleased, upset, or indifferent.

 

I just don't get it. And I doubt that I'm the only one. CAC is leaving a lot unsaid, and I sense skepticism turning to cyncism on the part of many collectors.

Lou, re your first question - I'm not sure how you define coins with "large values". But, for example, I think there will be bids for a good number of 5 figure MS and PF type coins, as well as some scare/rare date issues. Will there be bids on everything? I seriously doubt it. In answer to your 2'd and 4th questions (and then I am going to take a break):

 

I don't know that anything obligates an affiliated dealer to place sight unseen bids. Maybe something is in place for that - I simply don't know. The bottom line is that you can't really force people to place meaningful bids.

 

I didn't answer your 4th question because, since my answer to your third one was "no", it became moot. But hypothetically, my sight-unseen bids would be lower than my sight-seen ones.

 

Instead of trying to figure out in advance how collectors should feel, why not just let things sort themselves out over time and then feel however you feel?!

 

Edited to add: You and others have raised a number of good questions. I only know some of the answers but time will tell for the rest. Even if others aren't, I'm content with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BillJones

BillJones

Posted
Posted

A couple of points.

 

First CAC might make bids, but at what levels? Most dealers would be more than willing to buy coins at 20% under Blue Sheet, but there will be few sellers. If CAC bids are very low, their support will not amount to much.

 

Second, CAC will not support the entire market. They will only buy the stuff that they think will turn a profit. No faulting them for that, but implying that the coin market will become anything like the New York Stock Exchange with its trading rules and short term "anti panic selling" provisions is totally off base.

 

Some collectors are concerned that CAC will pull a bunch of speculators and investors into the coin market. That, it is hoped by some, will drive prices beyond their already inflated levels. The truth is if CAC succeeds in doing that, a MAJOR CORRECTION will be in order.

 

I’m already concerned about the prices for the properly graded coins I have right now. I were not so much of a collector, the smart thing to do would be for me sell off a lot of my better stuff. I enjoy the hobby too much to do that. Coins are my “luxury good” – not super luxury car or a big house. Still rational people might be looking to sell right now, and if CAC succeeds there might be a run up, but the run up could be a run to disaster.

 

Remember: In the long run collectors set values. And when collectors stop buying and only investors and speculators are left, the bigger fools take over. And when that happens the joy ride is prepared to come to a day of reckoning.

 

A lot of people thought the super boom of the late 1970s would not end, but it did. History can repeat itself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Go to topic listing